UFC 115 discussion/odds

[Mr. IWS]

Re: UFC 115 discussion/odds

One last one I just got

they spelled studio wrong.

[SPX]

Re: UFC 115 discussion/odds

I'd just like to say that this card kind of sucks for betting.

As it stands, I will probably be loading up on underdogs and hoping for the best. The problem is that I don't really like most of the dogs' chances to win. But I don't like the lines for the favorites, either.

So it will have to be dogs or nothing.

[poopoo333]

Re: UFC 115 discussion/odds

SPX, almost all of the dogs are live imo.


Guys, Kampmann is +200. I took Thiago @-150 for 3u. What would be the most profitable way to arb out?

[zY|]

Re: UFC 115 discussion/odds

SPX, almost all of the dogs are live imo.


Guys, Kampmann is +200. I took Thiago @-150 for 3u. What would be the most profitable way to arb out?

If you're confident in Thiago, you can put 1.5u on Kampmann and freeroll Thiago. So you win .5u if Thiago wins but if he loses then you push. Or you could put something like 1.7u on Kampmann and you'll win .3u or .4u no matter what.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 115 discussion/odds

SPX, almost all of the dogs are live imo.


Guys, Kampmann is +200. I took Thiago @-150 for 3u. What would be the most profitable way to arb out?

There is no "most profitable" way to arb it.

You can eliminate risk and bet on Thiago for a smaller more likely win. You can eliminate risk and bet on Kampmann for a bigger less likely win. Or you can split the difference and guarantee a small profit.

All options have the same expected value though. Personally, when I arb, which is rare, I like to take a free bet on the underdog, but still guarantee a small win should the favorite win.


Say you have 100 on Thiago to win $66.66 (@ -150). You can put 66.66 on Kampmann to give you a $133 win, a net profit of $33. This is a free bet on Kampmann.

Or you can put $50 on Kampann. A win will get you your $100 back on Thiago. BUt if Thiago wins, you win $66, and net profit overall of $16. This is a free bet on Thiago.

Or you can put $55 on Kampmann. A Kampmann win will give you $110, a net profit of $10. If Thiago wins you get $66.66 (minus 55), a net profit of $11.66. This is splitting the difference and guarnteeing a profit.

I like to go with a bet of like $61 on Kampman. If he wins, I guarantee a good payday, ($22), but if he loses I still get SOMETHING for my trouble, in this case $5.

[poopoo333]

Re: UFC 115 discussion/odds

Thanks, still deciding on it. I may as well just stick with my bet on Paulo, I was pretty confident in it.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 115 discussion/odds

Thanks, still deciding on it. I may as well just stick with my bet on Paulo, I was pretty confident in it.

I personally don't arb because my bankroll is too small to make it worth it. I shit on a $10 profit. I would rather go down in glorious flames than win $10. If I was betting thousands, I would arb every time.

[SPX]

Re: UFC 115 discussion/odds

I personally don't arb because my bankroll is too small to make it worth it. I shit on a $10 profit. I would rather go down in glorious flames than win $10. If I was betting thousands, I would arb every time.

This is pretty much where I'm at but for me an arb would usually mean more like a $3 or $4 profit. Fuck that.

[Luke]

Re: UFC 115 discussion/odds

LOL you can watch the highlights of their quotes on the front page like I said.

Since you watched the whole thing though, anything else good in the press conference?

Nope not a thing .I wanted to watch the whole thing. They just talked about the huge insurance they had to carry for the event, how poor Pat Barry was and how much he looks upto CC,the reason Dana wanted Liddell to retire was his lifestyle not the fact they thought he was done. Thats about it

[Luke]

Re: UFC 115 discussion/odds

Franklin is down to -119 at matchbook now.Word must be out about Liddells shape. I wish I had put down like 10 units instead of 1 when I bet Liddell at +140 so I could arb out and get a free bet on Liddell

[Mr. IWS]

Re: UFC 115 discussion/odds

Im starting to come around on Franklin. I think he will outpoint Chuck for a W.

[poopoo333]

Re: UFC 115 discussion/odds

Wow money is coming in on Chuck. Glad I grabbed him at +125.

[Luke]

Re: UFC 115 discussion/odds

Wow money is coming in on Chuck. Glad I grabbed him at +125.

i got +140 about a week and a half ago, best I can get now is +105

[Luke]

Re: UFC 115 discussion/odds

I'm waiting till I see the weigh ins before making final decisions

SPX ,ZY what you betting?

[SPX]

Re: UFC 115 discussion/odds

I'm waiting till I see the weigh ins before making final decisions

SPX ,ZY what you betting?

Not sure yet. I actually have not made a single bet.

To be honest, I am having a really hard time making picks for this card and I don't really like any of the lines.