UFN 3/31 odds/discussion

[Luke]

Re: UFN 3/31 odds/discussion

Ludo don't be that guy that goes he steroid route. It's cheap and vindictive and all those guys were later beat up by pride fighters in the ufc.

He'll defend Lesnar next and say he never touched a Roid

[Luke]

Re: UFN 3/31 odds/discussion

Actually Machida entered the UFC about a month before Pride was sold to the Fertittas, so...

Also, he was fighting in Japan in all through 2004-2005, just not in Pride. He was fighting in K-1 and Inoki Bon Ba Ye. So since he wasn't fighting in Pride when he could have been, and was fighting in the UFC before most of these Pride fighters came in, that would sort of make him a UFC fighter by default.

I already said if you put Rampage, Wanderlei, Hendo, and Shogun up head to head against Chuck, Tito, Randy, and Franklin it wouldn't even be close 4 years ago. However four years ago we had alot of differences at work here. A ring vs an Octagon, stomps allowed in one but not in the other, steroids permitted in one and not the other.

I'll be honest I was just arguing and messing with you last night because I couldnt sleep .

[SPX]

Re: UFN 3/31 odds/discussion

Three times? Uh oh. OK, so we've got Florian and Nelson. What's the third bet? Or is it too horrible to mention?

I was wondering the same thing. . .

[Mr. IWS]

Re: UFN 3/31 odds/discussion

Hopefully it aint on Gomi or Struve

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFN 3/31 odds/discussion

I am just trying to convince myself, because I actually made a horrible mistake and bet like half of my bankroll on Florian and Nelson. Literally, if one of them loses, it will set me back like 2 years.

Do you know on Bookmaker when you place your bets and you can either choose "risk amount" or "win amount"? Teh default is "wager" which is equivalent to win amount. I buzzed through the process and instead of betting 5units, I bet to win 5units on BOTH guys. So @ -290, I have to bet 29 units to win 5u on each. It was after my 109 loss, so I adjusted my bankroll, and I literally have like 55% of my entire stake on those fights.

I am confident in Roy, but I am sick about the Florian fight. So I am trying to make myself feel better.

If I had an uncomfortable amount of on three fighters I'd open a matchbook account and dump off everything I did want. I'm 95% sure you could get the exact line on the other side and wouldnt have to worry about losing a dime.

If interested I'll you out if not GL man

I did consider hedging it out... I don't have a matchbook account though. And I have accounts at 5dimes and Bodog, neither of which I ever use. I was hoping the line would move a little though, because as it sits now, I would take a pretty solid hit on the hedge- I got both @ -290. I thought Roy would go to like -400 but he never moved much. Struve is +250. I still might do it, but I have been waiting for the last minute... that and I am a bit of an action junkie, so it doesn't really bother me much.

My gambling bankroll is pretty tiny compared to the effort I put into it- but it is more about defining my advantage and planning my dream of never working again than it is about money. I have decided that if I have one more year of solid returns, I am going to start funding it for real though.

If you think I could get someone to give me +290 on Matchbook, then it might be time to open an account there.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFN 3/31 odds/discussion

What is even worse, I must have been in la la land, because I did it not once, not twice, but 3 times in row... all almost simultaneously... but still.

Three times? Uh oh. OK, so we've got Florian and Nelson. What's the third bet? Or is it too horrible to mention?

it was on Maia, but since he is +400, it actually did not make a difference, it was under what I was going to bet anyway. I wanted to put 2u on him, which would obviously return more than 5u. Since I bet to win 5u, I actually had to add to my bet.

[Luke]

Re: UFN 3/31 odds/discussion

All it would take is someone wanting -290 on Roy and Florian to get you hedged out. I tell matchbook to get the lines up and then I'll watch the lines . You're bascially the bookie on matchbook .Worst case is you could put up +290 on both and no one take them and your still out nothing

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFN 3/31 odds/discussion

All it would take is someone wanting -290 on Roy and Florian to get you hedged out. I tell matchbook to get the lines up and then I'll watch the lines . You're bascially the bookie on matchbook .Worst case is you could put up +290 on both and no one take them and your still out nothing

Yeah, keep an eye on it for me. I need to get a Matchbook account.

[Thewiseman]

Re: UFN 3/31 odds/discussion

So far I have 5.5u on Florian to win 2u, and have 2u at risk with him in a parlay.
Have 6u on Okami in a parlay.
Have 2u on Siver to win 3.18u

[Ipickdeeznuts2win]

Re: UFN 3/31 odds/discussion

I will be taking:
Kenflo - 6U
Country - 6U
Pearson - 5U

Ok bye

[Luke]

Re: UFN 3/31 odds/discussion

Ok bye

[Ludo]

Re: UFN 3/31 odds/discussion

Actually Machida entered the UFC about a month before Pride was sold to the Fertittas, so...

Also, he was fighting in Japan in all through 2004-2005, just not in Pride. He was fighting in K-1 and Inoki Bon Ba Ye. So since he wasn't fighting in Pride when he could have been, and was fighting in the UFC before most of these Pride fighters came in, that would sort of make him a UFC fighter by default.

I already said if you put Rampage, Wanderlei, Hendo, and Shogun up head to head against Chuck, Tito, Randy, and Franklin it wouldn't even be close 4 years ago. However four years ago we had alot of differences at work here. A ring vs an Octagon, stomps allowed in one but not in the other, steroids permitted in one and not the other.

I'll be honest I was just arguing and messing with you last night because I couldnt sleep .

It's cool man. I love a good debate that doesn't turn into a mudslinging contest.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFN 3/31 odds/discussion

Siver was on Unleashed last night. He was going about even with Paul Kelly until he caught him with that spinning kick. I think I am going to take Pearson too for 3u.

[SPX]

Re: UFN 3/31 odds/discussion

Siver was on Unleashed last night. He was going about even with Paul Kelly until he caught him with that spinning kick. I think I am going to take Pearson too for 3u.

I just did a little research on Siver. I watched his fights with Kelly and Hartt. I also rewatched Pearson v Riley.

I think the value here is probably on Siver, especially if his line climbs any higher. (I DEFINITELY would've been on him at +225 when Bookmaker opened him if I had known who the fuck he was.) I think he seems pretty slick in the stand up and appears to also have good takedown defense and even a solid ground game.

I like Pearson. He's a little bulldog who seems to have the ability to bully his opponents, but I actually am thinking about a play on Siver here.

[Ludo]

Re: UFN 3/31 odds/discussion

Against any other up and coming fighter at 155(except Escudero and Etim) I'd go with Siver. But I just don't see how he wins this fight against Pearson. Pearson's striking may not be as crisp as it can be one day but he's no slouch. His takedowns are pretty good and his ground game is above average. Siver has that nasty left counter hook but not a whole lot else. Not everyone is going to keep rushing straight ahead with no angles like Paul Kelly did. I don't see Siver able to work that "sit back and crank you with My left counter" tactic all night with Pearson. Pearson will just fake a lunge and change levels or smother him against the fence.