UFN 3/31 odds/discussion

[SPX]

Re: UFN 3/31 odds/discussion

Siver has that nasty left counter hook but not a whole lot else.

Well hold up now. He has finished 2 of 3 UFC fights with a spinning back kick. Also, I'm not sure of the specifics, but I know Joe Rogan mentioned that Siver was a kickboxing champ in Germany as well.

Not everyone is going to keep rushing straight ahead with no angles like Paul Kelly did. I don't see Siver able to work that "sit back and crank you with My left counter" tactic all night with Pearson. Pearson will just fake a lunge and change levels or smother him against the fence.

I understand the "smother him against the fence" sentiment. That's what Pearson does. But I actually think it won't be as easy as you might expect against Siver. He's a powerful guy and seems to have good grappling ability. I'm not sure that he'll be so easily controlled.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFN 3/31 odds/discussion

Siver was on Unleashed last night. He was going about even with Paul Kelly until he caught him with that spinning kick. I think I am going to take Pearson too for 3u.

I just did a little research on Siver. I watched his fights with Kelly and Hartt. I also rewatched Pearson v Riley.

I think the value here is probably on Siver, especially if his line climbs any higher. (I DEFINITELY would've been on him at +225 when Bookmaker opened him if I had known who the fuck he was.) I think he seems pretty slick in the stand up and appears to also have good takedown defense and even a solid ground game.

I like Pearson. He's a little bulldog who seems to have the ability to bully his opponents, but I actually am thinking about a play on Siver here.

Really? I wasn't very impressed with him. I think Pearson is going to just go Guida on him. Pearson has a relentless pace, and seems to just walk through everything. @ -188, I like Pearson. @ +225, I also like Siver. But he is only +148. No way I would take him for that.

[SPX]

Re: UFN 3/31 odds/discussion

Really? I wasn't very impressed with him. I think Pearson is going to just go Guida on him. Pearson has a relentless pace, and seems to just walk through everything. @ -188, I like Pearson. @ +225, I also like Siver. But he is only +148. No way I would take him for that.

Hmm. . .

I don't know, man. Even at +148 I might like Siver (though he's at +165 at 5dimes.) If I was going to bet Pearson, I'd probably need -125 or so.

[Thewiseman]

Re: UFN 3/31 odds/discussion

I would take Siver at even. He is winning this fight 60% IMO. I have 2u on him.

[Ludo]

Re: UFN 3/31 odds/discussion

I just rewatched the fight between Siver and Mohr. In the words of GSP "I'm not impressed by his performance". You can make a case that he won round one because he rocked Mohr early on, but he spent most of the remainder of that round on his back with Mohr mounting him, he managed to get half guard and guard before they got stood up. Second round was all Mohr. Mohr picked him apart with counters. In round three Mohr wasn't quite as dominant but he was still working Siver pretty good until Siver started to set something up. He finally unleashed the spinning back kick that ended the fight but if it hadn't been for that he very well may have lost the fight.

I just don't see Siver being able to implement this kind of stuff against Pearson.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFN 3/31 odds/discussion

I just don't see Siver being able to implement this kind of stuff against Pearson.

agreed. I think Pearson is just a flat out better fighter. He was having trouble with Paul Kelley as well. I am sorry, but Paul Kelley is horrible.

[SPX]

Re: UFN 3/31 odds/discussion

agreed. I think Pearson is just a flat out better fighter. He was having trouble with Paul Kelley as well. I am sorry, but Paul Kelley is horrible.

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree here. Paul Kelly is a solid mid-level fighter. He almost finished Marcus Davis, and say what you will about Davis, but he's a good fighter, much better than someone like Pearson as this point in their careers.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFN 3/31 odds/discussion

agreed. I think Pearson is just a flat out better fighter. He was having trouble with Paul Kelley as well. I am sorry, but Paul Kelley is horrible.

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree here. Paul Kelly is a solid mid-level fighter. He almost finished Marcus Davis, and say what you will about Davis, but he's a good fighter, much better than someone like Pearson as this point in their careers.

I guess we are... Paul Kelley wouldnt be champ of the hometown show in my city. There is nothing he does well.

He has not finished a fight in the UFC, take Roli Delgado and Troy Mandaloniz to decisions, and he got stopped in both of his losses, to Siver and Marcis Davis. His best win to date is over fellow middling brit Paul Taylor. He buit his record in the UK = all cans. No way he'd be in the UFC if he wasn't british. No freakin way.

[poopoo333]

Re: UFN 3/31 odds/discussion

So scientist, you have Veach over Kelly then? :)

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFN 3/31 odds/discussion

Here is the breakdown from SPX's best friend:

http://www.mmamafia.net/mma-news/featured-mma/4602-ufn-21-florian-vs-gomi-breakdown.html

I get a lot out of the breakdowns...

I am considering making a play on Tibau now.

[zY|]

Re: UFN 3/31 odds/discussion

^^I don't understand how his writeup makes it sound like Gomi has zero chance to win the fight, then he sets his line at -185? Hell, I think he might win and even I think that's a fair line. I also still don't understand what the hell 'split scoring' means.

[SPX]

Re: UFN 3/31 odds/discussion

I agree that Siver/Pearson is closer than the line indicates, as I've said before.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFN 3/31 odds/discussion

^^I don't understand how his writeup makes it sound like Gomi has zero chance to win the fight, then he sets his line at -185? Hell, I think he might win and even I think that's a fair line. I also still don't understand what the hell 'split scoring' means.

I have never understood that either. He sets his lines way too tightly IMO. And I have no idea what split scoring means, I think it has something to do with fantasy mma games.

[Ludo]

Re: UFN 3/31 odds/discussion

Final plays

5u to win 8u parlay on Florian, Nelson, and Okami

2.7u to win 5.6u on Uno

[SPX]

Re: UFN 3/31 odds/discussion

Final plays

5u to win 8u parlay on Florian, Nelson, and Okami

Good luck. Hefty amount of units on a 3 man parlay.

2.7u to win 5.6u on Uno

Why Uno? I'm also considering an Uno play at the current line, but I really think he's too damn small to be fighting the welterweight Gleison Tibau.