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Favor Alves slightly. I think he'll punish Fitch with leg kicks, sprawl him out, and punch him in the head. The other outcome is that Alves gets Fitched, but I don't think so. The line looks about right to me.
Triple-six killers in this motherfucker runnin shit
A little theory about this fight I have is that ring rust will affect Alves, and he was looking heavy recently in one of those vids of him at the doctors office. Maybe he got too heavy and will have a harder cut?
I don't see Fitch losing. He's durable as fuck and Alves will likely spend most of the fight either on his back getting stalled or being pressed against the cage and doing no damage. honestly all this time away from the octagon while Fitch has been running through guys and staying in fight shape will probably lead Alves to gas at Fitch's pace at which point Fitch will jump on his back and rape him for the win.
Fitch by Prison Movie Shower Technique
2013: +8.24u(increased unit size on 5/19)
Favorites: 20-6 + 6.13u
Underdogs: 10-19 -2.51u
Ludo's Locks Parlay Project: +1.4u
So far I've got Almeida and Fitch. I have a feeling I will be putting down good money on them.
Also, I expect Silva over Boetsch by domination but I doubt I will get good value on that bet and if Boetsch is a really good wrestler, this fight could end up as a close upset like Nog/Brilz. No bet on that one.
Ring rust could definitely be a factor, and getting Fitch at + money against any WW not named GSP doesn't sound like a bad bet to me. Still, I think Alves takes it via being more dynamic and having more effective offense.
Triple-six killers in this motherfucker runnin shit
OK, how would you compare the following three guys at WW:
Matt Hughes, Jon Fitch, Jake Shields?
1.Fitch
2.Shields
3.Hughes
Yeah, I think that's the consensus. My follow up would be: Are the gaps between these fighters as large as people seem to think? and then "How much can we learn about Alves/Fitch from Alves/Hughes?"
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