UFC on Versus 2 odds

[SPX]

Re: UFC on Versus 2 odds

I am honestly not sure about that.

[edman5555]

Re: UFC on Versus 2 odds

Tough call, I don't know if I agree.

Do you train with them both as well?

No but I form my own opinions, you should look into that.

[Svino]

Re: UFC on Versus 2 odds

Yeah, I just think there is a good chance Munoz can put Okami on his back. Okami has better standup IMO, but Munoz has more power. Okami has never knocked anyone out that I can recall. Okami has lost to 3 wrestlers already, Shields, Suluev, and Sonnen (R-Or) (R-Or). I think the fight is close standing, but I would give the edge to Okami. I think Munoz can out wrestle him though, and I doubt either will submit the other.

I got Okami at -140 (I think) and I'm considering arbing out of this one. I continue to underestimate Munoz and got burned on the Grove fight. Will it happen again here? I don't know, but I might take my couple of dollars of profit and move on.

Okami at -140 was a great grab, IMO. I really think Munoz will not have anything for Okami. You can say that Okami has had some problems with great wrestlers, but so has Munoz. I don't think Munoz has ever been able to bring his MMA wrestling up to anywhere near what you might expect from his amateur credentials. He was outwrestled (and vastly outstruck) by Hamill, and largely outwrestled by Catone as well. And while it was a nice comeback, I can not say that I was impressed with Munoz's performance against Grove either.

I will probably not be betting on this fight though, since I did not get a good early line. And since I think the line is now at least reasonable, I can't say that arbing out is a bad move.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC on Versus 2 odds

^^ Hamill and Catone are better wrestlers than Okami IMO (they were also 20 pounds heavier). Catone has a very solid wrestling pedigree.

Still I think Munoz uses his wrestling differently. He uses it like you see a lot of bjj guys using thier bjj... in order to let the hands fly. He throws heavy bombs with no fear of the takedown. Even though he got taken down by Catone, he used his mat reversals to get a dominant position or get back up. Hammill wrecked him, there is no 2 ways about that. But I would favor Hammill over Okami too. Even if Okami can put Munoz down, which he probably will at some point, I think it might be a bad idea for him. Munoz can reverse and start throwing his brutal GNP. I just don't think Okami has a distinct advanatge anywhere. On his feet, he lacks power. He usually wins by being on top, which I think will be troublesome from him here, as Munoz knows how to create a scramble.

I am not saying it is a slam dunk... but I do favor Munoz slightly. It is a little better than a coin flip for me.

[sbjj]

Re: UFC on Versus 2 odds

^^ Hamill and Catone are better wrestlers than Okami IMO (they were also 20 pounds heavier). Catone has a very solid wrestling pedigree.

Still I think Munoz uses his wrestling differently. He uses it like you see a lot of bjj guys using thier bjj... in order to let the hands fly. He throws heavy bombs with no fear of the takedown. Even though he got taken down by Catone, he used his mat reversals to get a dominant position or get back up. Hammill wrecked him, there is no 2 ways about that. But I would favor Hammill over Okami too. Even if Okami can put Munoz down, which he probably will at some point, I think it might be a bad idea for him. Munoz can reverse and start throwing his brutal GNP. I just don't think Okami has a distinct advanatge anywhere. On his feet, he lacks power. He usually wins by being on top, which I think will be troublesome from him here, as Munoz knows how to create a scramble.

I am not saying it is a slam dunk... but I do favor Munoz slightly. It is a little better than a coin flip for me.

Catone is not 20 lbs heavier than Okami. He is more than likely smaller than Okami, as he is a smaller middleweight than Yushin. Catone is also borderline UFC material ATM, yet he just about beat Munoz, in fact, I thought he did.

[sbjj]

Re: UFC on Versus 2 odds

I think there is a strong chance that Yushin beats Munoz up standing. He only lacks power when he is NOT hitting dudes. When he decides to actually throw his hands, he hurts fighters. His striking seemed to be on another level last fight, and Munoz seemed to have the same problem last fight as all his previous fights. The problem of blocking strikes with his face.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC on Versus 2 odds

^ You are right, Catone is a MW. We can argue about whether he belongs in the UFC, only time will tell that though.

Still, he is a better wrestler than Okami IMO. That fight was all scrambles, takedowns and reversals. I thought Catone won round round 1, but Munoz won rounds 2 and 3.

I just don't see any area where Okami is going to have a big advantage. Okami's path to victory is to get on top and pound away until the ref stops it. This supposes that he can take Munoz down, which is questionable, that he can keep him down, which is questionable. Its not a good matchup stylewise for either guy, but it favors Munoz. All Munoz really needs to do is not get planted on his back. I think Munoz has more outs. @ +175, it is worth a bet. No way I would take Okami @ -215. I could see -140... although I personally would take either guy @ +odds.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC on Versus 2 odds

I think there is a strong chance that Yushin beats Munoz up standing. He only lacks power when he is NOT hitting dudes. When he decides to actually throw his hands, he hurts fighters. His striking seemed to be on another level last fight, and Munoz seemed to have the same problem last fight as all his previous fights. The problem of blocking strikes with his face.

His striking has looked better, but when has Okami ever dropped someone with a punch? (that is not sarcasm, I don't recall him ever dropping someone with a punch, so of you know of one...)

[sbjj]

Re: UFC on Versus 2 odds

^ You are right, Catone is a MW. We can argue about whether he belongs in the UFC, only time will tell that though.

Still, he is a better wrestler than Okami IMO. That fight was all scrambles, takedowns and reversals. I thought Catone won round round 1, but Munoz won rounds 2 and 3.

I just don't see any area where Okami is going to have a big advantage. Okami's path to victory is to get on top and pound away until the ref stops it. This supposes that he can take Munoz down, which is questionable, that he can keep him down, which is questionable. Its not a good matchup stylewise for either guy, but it favors Munoz. All Munoz really needs to do is not get planted on his back. I think Munoz has more outs. @ +175, it is worth a bet. No way I would take Okami @ -215. I could see -140... although I personally would take either guy @ +odds.

I gree with you on the price. Yushin is too steep ATM IMO also. But I actually think Okami has the edge everywhere. First off, based on previous fights, Munoz will more than likely not be able to take Yushin down, as he has had problems taking down smaller, weaker wrestlers than Okami. That leaves us to one of two things panning out. Either Yushin takes Munoz down, and good scrambles or not, Yushin has better top control than Catone...Catone has had problems keeping alot of his opponents down. Or #2(the most likely scenario) the two fighters remain upright and battle it out on the feet. Yushin seems to be able to take a decent punch, and to my knowledge has never really been hurt standing, while Munoz has been battered and hurt in many of his fights.

I like Munoz, and love his fighters spirit and heart, but talent wise, I think he is just not on par with Okami.

[sbjj]

Re: UFC on Versus 2 odds

I think there is a strong chance that Yushin beats Munoz up standing. He only lacks power when he is NOT hitting dudes. When he decides to actually throw his hands, he hurts fighters. His striking seemed to be on another level last fight, and Munoz seemed to have the same problem last fight as all his previous fights. The problem of blocking strikes with his face.

His striking has looked better, but when has Okami ever dropped someone with a punch? (that is not sarcasm, I don't recall him ever dropping someone with a punch, so of you know of one...)

Of the few fights I have seen him throw punches with his opponent, I have seen him visibly hurt his oppenent, and stop them.

That is the whole point. Yushin usually does not go that route, he can usually stun a fighter and then get a takedown. If he can not take Munoz down, this could end up being a boxing match, a boxing match I feel Munoz loses.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC on Versus 2 odds

We just see it differently. I see two guys that are roughly equal everywhere, except one guy has brutal power, wrestling, and an upside (Munoz is still at the stage of his career where he could show up a totally improved fighter). Okami has limited standup, good takedowns and top control, and a strong clinch. I think those are all weapons he is going to have trouble using against Munoz. I am not too excited about Yushin's striking, I don't think he has as much there as you do.

[zY|]

Re: UFC on Versus 2 odds

Watching their last fights respectively, it's pretty easy to imagine Munoz getting absolutely mashed by Okami.

[Luke]

Re: UFC on Versus 2 odds

Watching their last fights respectively, it's pretty easy to imagine Munoz getting absolutely mashed by Okami.

I see the samething. I think the fight will be mostly standing with Okami picking Munoz apart on their feet. I'd bet Okami but I dont like the odds if it were around the -140 open I'd probably pull the trigger

[Ludo]

Re: UFC on Versus 2 odds

I'm not sure how Grove beating Munoz standing gives anyone the idea that Munoz will get beaten standing by Okami. Linhares really has been more or less low to mid level fodder for up and comers(Palhares) and guys desperately needing a win(Okami). Okami showed improved striking for sure against Linhares but he didn't have a whole lot to fear from him. You could visibly see Linhares wanted nothing to do with the standup from the start.

Munoz getting beat by Grove is a tricky set of circumstances. Munoz is still relatively uneducated in the stand up game. Consider that on top of the fact that Grove is 6'6" tall and every bit as long. So now you have a guy who is still learning proper angles for an average sized person and now he has to deal with these new funky angles being used by someone that tall. It's bound to give almost anyone in that position plenty of problems. I can easily imagine Okami having trouble with Grove's striking as well but thats neither here nor there.

I don't see Okami having a vast advantage striking, but he does have a slight technical advantage to which he lacks some of the hand power Munoz has. On the ground I see them possibly canceling each other out. Either Okami snags a takedown and at some point Munoz reverses or scrambles out, or Munoz scores a takedown and either pounds him out or does a good deal of damage while there. Okami has usually had a decent sprawl though so this could remain standing for a large portion of the fight.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC on Versus 2 odds

Luke,
If you think Okami was good at -140 (58%) that means you give Munoz a 42% chance to win. Since the current odds on Munoz are +175 (giviing him only a 36% chance) you should be betting on Munoz.

I know that is not your system, that you only bet 50% or more dogs... still, you think Munoz has value.


On a side note, why don't you guys take your Okami love and shove it up your anuses? Have you considered that as a possible solution?

I guess I need to up my bet on Ellenberger to cover the inevitable loss (anytime I argue about a guy against the board I lose- with the exception of Werdum).