UFC 123 - Machida/Rampage

[SPX]

Re: UFC 123 - Machida/Rampage

I'm hoping some last-minute money comes in on Hughes and drives Penn's line down. I'd probably think very seriously about it if I could get him for -135.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: UFC 123 - Machida/Rampage

I really do think Penn will win though. I don't think Hughes will get him down, if he even tries too.

I don't see BJ gassing out in a boxing match, and he has the better standup IMO. It will probably be a boring decision for BJ.

[edman5555]

Re: UFC 123 - Machida/Rampage

Even if Hughes gets him down he is still in trouble. I don't see Hughes winning this anywhere.

[SPX]

Re: UFC 123 - Machida/Rampage

Penn will absolutely chew Hughes up on the feet. We're talking a fighter with some of the best boxing in MMA against a fighter with some of the very worst.

It all comes down to takedowns. Can Hughes get Penn down? And if so, can he keep him there?

I actually think I'm talking myself into a massive bet on Penn.

[edman5555]

Re: UFC 123 - Machida/Rampage

I wish I got him at +130

[Mr. IWS]

Re: UFC 123 - Machida/Rampage

Even if Hughes gets him down he is still in trouble. I don't see Hughes winning this anywhere.

I can see BJ gassing from the grappling. I think Hughes is savy enought at this point in his career, to stay out of harms way there.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 123 - Machida/Rampage

I think Penn will definitely win round 1. The only issue is whether he can continue to stuff Hughes in rd 2 and 3. I think he will be able to stuff him... but it is not like Penn is screwed on the ground... he is a much better grappler than Hughes too... he already subbed him once and in the second fight he beat his ass on the ground too (until the gas out/injury). Penn still has value @ -165 IMO. Penn only loses if he gasses.

[poopoo333]

Re: UFC 123 - Machida/Rampage

Penn didn't really gas in the 5 round Edgar fights, he slowed down and all but he didn't go into cardiac arrest like he did in Hughes/BJ II

[SPX]

Re: UFC 123 - Machida/Rampage

I think Penn will definitely win round 1. The only issue is whether he can continue to stuff Hughes in rd 2 and 3. I think he will be able to stuff him... but it is not like Penn is screwed on the ground... he is a much better grappler than Hughes too... he already subbed him once and in the second fight he beat his ass on the ground too (until the gas out/injury). Penn still has value @ -165 IMO. Penn only loses if he gasses.

You on him?

[SPX]

Re: UFC 123 - Machida/Rampage

I'm thinking that if he beats him, then he beats him. And he could probably do it over and over. If that's the case, Penn probably has value all the way to -500.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: UFC 123 - Machida/Rampage

Penn didn't really gas in the 5 round Edgar fights, he slowed down and all but he didn't go into cardiac arrest like he did in Hughes/BJ II

LOL @ Cardiac Arrest.

I watched that fight the other day. When the horn sounded and that round ended with BJ trying to secure that Triangle/Arm bar attempt, it looked like that nigga was drunk.

I think BJ will be fine, as long as he keeps it standing, but you never know with that guy anymore. I can't trust him. For all we know, he is running underwater with Boulders with Justin McCully again.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 123 - Machida/Rampage

Penn didn't really gas in the 5 round Edgar fights, he slowed down and all but he didn't go into cardiac arrest like he did in Hughes/BJ II

A lot of people don't want to admit this, but Penn got injured in the 2nd round of Hughes/Penn II. Penn was dominating up until he suddenly couldn't even fight back at all in the 3rd round. Penn dominated the standup and the ground.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 123 - Machida/Rampage

You on him?

No. I think Penn has become one of those fighters like Luke is with KJ and Vera. I just can't bet on him because he is too unpredictible. I really do not think he has been training for the fight very hard. He might show up with a pot belly and get injured because his muscle mass cannot support his girth again.

[SPX]

Re: UFC 123 - Machida/Rampage

No. I think Penn has become one of those fighters like Luke is with KJ and Vera. I just can't bet on him because he is too unpredictible. I really do not think he has been training for the fight very hard. He might show up with a pot belly and get injured because his muscle mass cannot support his girth again.

Is this really true, though? That he's unpredictable? Was the same BJ who fought Sherk and Sanchez not the same BJ who fought Edgar?

Really, I didn't see a big difference.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 123 - Machida/Rampage

I guess it depends on how far back you want to go. He should have beaten GSP in GSP I, but he gassed out and quit fighting. Same with Hughes II. I actually thought he quit a little in Edgar II as well, not as obviously, but he had one burst when he had Edgar on bottom, and when that failed, he mailed it in IMO. I like BJ as a fighter, I still think he is the best 155er in the world... but he has never come from behind to win or changed his strategy up when it is not working. I don't even think he has ever won a fight where he lost a round, though I could be wrong. To me, he just is not reliable in competitive fights. He either dominates or loses. Hughes is the opposite, he finds a way to win, even when he shouldn't (Penn/Trigg/GSP).