UFC 123 - Machida/Rampage

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 123 - Machida/Rampage

I put Karo/Hallman @ close to coin flip. I was going to bet him but the line was already down... not enough value for me on a fight I don't have a lot of confidence in. Gun to my head, I would probably pick Hallman outright at this point though.

[edman5555]

Re: UFC 123 - Machida/Rampage

Hallman is pretty good. Karo has never knocked anyone out. All the guys to beat Karo are wrestlers, but I don't know if Hallman is good enough a wrestler to beat Karo. Karo does sound good in interviews but I def would not bet him without + odds.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 123 - Machida/Rampage

Hallman is a better wrestler than Diego, IMO.

[Havis Jr]

Re: UFC 123 - Machida/Rampage

I think Lentz beats Griffen. Griffen struggles with wrestlers and lentz is a very good wrestler. All american and he trains at a camp with other good wrestlers. I wouldn't be surprised to see lentz grind out another DEC. Its hard to bet against guys like lentz with that long list of decision wins next to their name.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 123 - Machida/Rampage

I agree than Lentz is going to be a tough fight... but he was not an AA IIRC. He wrestled at Minnesota for a year or so, but I don't think he was ever a starter.

He is like Shields with that takedown though, he does not give up on it. He also has underrated striking IMO. I think it is a close fight. Tyson can win it for sure... but Lentz was not able to hold Winner down either, but that didn't stop him from winning. He just kept taking him down over and over and not letting Winner get off. Tyson is going to have the same gameplan most likely (stay standing) without the advantage of having reach. BUt if Tyson mixes in a few takedowns of his own, he can win it. I just think it is a close fight and I won't be surprised to see Lentz win an ugly decision.

[poopoo333]

Re: UFC 123 - Machida/Rampage

Actually Scientist has a good point, especially if you factor in how Tyson Griffin has been fighting lately. I don't think I remember Griffin initiating a grappling match since the Dos Anjos fight. Griffin will probably go in there to stand up and just think he will be able to shrug off any of Lentz's TDs.

[sbjj]

Re: UFC 123 - Machida/Rampage

Lentz has never faced anyone near as good as Griffin. Griffin has fought guys much better than Lentz and beat some of them. Besides Dunham, no one has been able to hold Griffin down for any amount of time. Not Sherk, Guida, or Edgar. Hard to imagine lentz doing a better job than them.

i think this is a case of people giving lentz a good chance because Griffin has lost a couple of fights to guys that are at least 2 levels above Lentz. While Lentz has had a decant run against guys at least 2 levels below Griffin.

[edman5555]

Re: UFC 123 - Machida/Rampage

Lentz has never faced anyone near as good as Griffin. Griffin has fought guys much better than Lentz and beat some of them. Besides Dunham, no one has been able to hold Griffin down for any amount of time. Not Sherk, Guida, or Edgar. Hard to imagine lentz doing a better job than them.

i think this is a case of people giving lentz a good chance because Griffin has lost a couple of fights to guys that are at least 2 levels above Lentz. While Lentz has had a decant run against guys at least 2 levels below Griffin.

This.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 123 - Machida/Rampage

Lentz has never faced anyone near as good as Griffin. Griffin has fought guys much better than Lentz and beat some of them. Besides Dunham, no one has been able to hold Griffin down for any amount of time. Not Sherk, Guida, or Edgar. Hard to imagine lentz doing a better job than them.

i think this is a case of people giving lentz a good chance because Griffin has lost a couple of fights to guys that are at least 2 levels above Lentz. While Lentz has had a decant run against guys at least 2 levels below Griffin.

my issue is this: i don't think Lentz needs to hold Griffin down to win. He did it against Winner without ever keeping him down for more than a few seconds. I don't think Lentz cares if he gets booed out of the building. Guida beat Griffin (IMO and almost anyone else's who actually wathed the fight) by doing almost that same thing. And for what its worth, all of the guys you mentioned that took Griffin down and did not control him still managed to beat him (Dunham controlled him a lot though, so not sure abot that one).

I am not saying Lentz is going to win, but I just think he has good shot here. Just because he has been fighting close with some lower tier guys, doesn't mean anything. They have all been tough good guys, none of them would get walked over by Griffin either, IMO. Griffin fights close with everyone too. I don't really recall him ever dominating anyone, except Franca- who can't even win on the local circuit. He is fun to watch because his fights are always close.

Anyway, I just disagree. I am not betting it, I mildly favor Griffin, but I think it will be close every round. Griffin will probably win 30-27, but it won't be a blowout IMO. I wouldn't be shocked to see Lentz surprise everyone with his superior wrestling and size. Lentz never went to decision prior to coming to the UFC... I think he is adjusting to the competition though.

[sbjj]

Re: UFC 123 - Machida/Rampage

Lentz has never faced anyone near as good as Griffin. Griffin has fought guys much better than Lentz and beat some of them. Besides Dunham, no one has been able to hold Griffin down for any amount of time. Not Sherk, Guida, or Edgar. Hard to imagine lentz doing a better job than them.

i think this is a case of people giving lentz a good chance because Griffin has lost a couple of fights to guys that are at least 2 levels above Lentz. While Lentz has had a decant run against guys at least 2 levels below Griffin.

my issue is this: i don't think Lentz needs to hold Griffin down to win. He did it against Winner without ever keeping him down for more than a few seconds. I don't think Lentz cares if he gets booed out of the building. Guida beat Griffin (IMO and almost anyone else's who actually wathed the fight) by doing almost that same thing. And for what its worth, all of the guys you mentioned that took Griffin down and did not control him still managed to beat him (Dunham controlled him a lot though, so not sure abot that one).

I am not saying Lentz is going to win, but I just think he has good shot here. Just because he has been fighting close with some lower tier guys, doesn't mean anything. They have all been tough good guys, none of them would get walked over by Griffin either, IMO. Griffin fights close with everyone too. I don't really recall him ever dominating anyone, except Franca- who can't even win on the local circuit. He is fun to watch because his fights are always close.

Anyway, I just disagree. I am not betting it, I mildly favor Griffin, but I think it will be close every round. Griffin will probably win 30-27, but it won't be a blowout IMO. I wouldn't be shocked to see Lentz surprise everyone with his superior wrestling and size. Lentz never went to decision prior to coming to the UFC... I think he is adjusting to the competition though.

Scientist, you have to read my posts before you disagree. I said Dunham held him down, I said everyone else. Bottom line, those guys that beat Griffin are not even in the same class as Lentz...not even close.

IMO, the fight could be fairly close. As you said, Griffins fights are close, but did you think maybe the reason for that is his competition. The dudes only easy fight was Franca. If he had beat his competition with ease, he would be the Aldo of the LW division.

[sbjj]

Re: UFC 123 - Machida/Rampage

If you actually look at their strngth of schedules. The difference is pretty shocking. Griffin has held his own with the best. If you take out the Gomi KO, he would still be considered in title contention IMO.

Probably does not matter, because the lines are probably accurate and show real no value on either side.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 123 - Machida/Rampage

Well it is not the BCS... half of judging a fight is what has been done, the other half is what can be done. Obviously Griffin has fought better competition. So what? My take on Griffin is this: he is a good wrestler with good submission defense, with decent striking. I like him, I like watching him, but what exactly does Griffin do very well? He scrambles, he escapes well. Why is he scrambling and escaping all the time? Why isn't he on top? I think Griffin is just a fighter that has a lot of defense and motion in his grappling, but doesn't have that much offense. He has pretty good leg kicks. I just don't think Griffin is the type of fighter that has the ability to really separate himself from the other guy on the scorecards. It almost always comes down to how the judges see his fights.

I am just saying that I don't think Tyson would have looked much more impressive against Lentz's competition, and in fact when he fought Tavares (thier only common opponent) it was extremely close.

[SPX]

Re: UFC 123 - Machida/Rampage

I went ahead and got on Tyson for 2u at -200. That's sans research, because I saw that the line was already heading back up. But I do know that Tyson has never been controlled by anyone not named Evan Dunham. Not even Sherk could do shit to him, and a lot of people think that Griffin won that fight.

[edman5555]

Re: UFC 123 - Machida/Rampage

I would have to look at the fights again but is it me or does Tyson seem to have better striking? Maybe I am wrong, the Gomi KO could prove me wrong.

[SPX]

Re: UFC 123 - Machida/Rampage

Hammersmith's write up, for those interested:

http://www.mma-hive.com/mma-betting/608 ... orner.html