UFC on Versus 3 March 3rd

[poopoo333]

Anyone got thoughts on Bowles/Page?

I bet on Page because he was @+290. If he wasn't close to 3:1 I wouldn't of bet on this fight, but I think that line was ridiculous.

[poopoo333]

Poopoo should call him and get some tips.

Thanks for making me look like a jackass, I was in class reading this on my phone when I just lol'd in the middle of a quiet ass class.


Sanchez by decision is @+200 right now. Lots of value imo

[edman5555]

No idea. Page has beaten some decent guys though, I wouldn't bet against him. Bowls has been out a while too.

[SPX]

Anyone got thoughts on Bowles/Page?

[edman5555]

I am already on Palhares for 6u i think it is. I have 4u on diego. I might do another bet and parlay them together. I have 2u Diego and 2u Diego by dec(I think). I have to double check, I might be off by a little bit.

[MMA_scientist]

Well, that is why I bet on Diego ultimately. Kampmann does not have a lot of ways to finish this fight, and Diego will probably be on top at least in the latter portion of the fight when his cardio takes over. But Kampmann surprised me with his grappling against Thiago, and he should have a slight edge standing.

[edman5555]

Plus Kampmann was takin down quite a bit by Condit. That fight was very close with a lot of wrestling/grappling. Diego is def a better wrestler than Condit. Jake was handling him in the wrestling department as well, even after he gassed. I think Jake is obv a much better grappler than him but I think Diego can drive as well as him and get the TD if really commits to it. Maybe not 100 percent as good but lets say 85 percent.

[edman5555]

I think Palhares can take him down fairly easily and his chin is pretty solid. Branch doesn't hit that hard and I'm not convinced his takedown D is that great. I'm not sure that Palhares can sub him if he gets him down so it might have to go the distane which worries me a little bit. You should watch the weigh in video. Palhares is obv a thick dude but I hadn't seen him in a while so it was kind of shocking this time around. His lats are ridiculous. Poopoo should call him and get some tips. Diego is also much bigger. I read an interview with him on Sherdog and he said that in his last camp his hand was broken so he wasn't lifting weights at all. He has been on a strength/weight lifting regimen since then and he is a lot thicker now. We'll see what happens. I agree with you about Kampmann though, he is very good. He is the capability to win. I just give the advantage to the guy with the takedown ability.

[poopoo333]

Sorry edman, branch got this

[MMA_scientist]

I bet on Diego also, but I think it is a true coin toss fight. Would not be surprised at all to see Kampmann stuff him repeatedly, or even get top position like he did against Thiago.

Palhares should win, but again, I think Branch is very live. Palhares should be slightly better in all areas, but I wouldn't be suprised to see Branch come on strong later in the fight. I do think Palhares will win though.

[SPX]

Fuck you, edman!

[edman5555]

Really? I feel like Diego is going to run out there, pick Kampmann up in the air and plant him on his ass.

[SPX]

I honestly think Kamp may just outstrike and out wrestle Diego. He's looked great lately and has a way of exceeding expectations.

[edman5555]

I am betting on Palhares and Diego tonight. Anyone here think they will be losing? If so, why?

[MMA_scientist]

On the other hand, if you already have weighted bets on both guys to win by decision because you're confident it will go the distance and the judges are fucking crazy, betting the draw is a pretty important hedge to make.


(goddammitsomuch)

If 50% of all fights go to decisions, betting the draw on every decision is not that bad. On average in the last 30 months, the draw is 110:1. It pays 40:1. But if you only bet the fights that went to a decision it is not nearly as bad of a bet (it still sucks compared to an even money bet, but probably worth it for those fights).