UFC on Versus 3 March 3rd

[MMA_scientist]

well yeah......you cant just bet draw everytime and expect to turn a profit

I realize that. I was looking at the recent influx of draws though... I did not realize that there were so few draws before. I figured it would be close to a break even bet, but thought we might be seeing an trend towards more draws while judges try to placate everyone. But it turns out that the bet is so bad overall, that there would almost have to be a draw every other event for it to be +

[Luke]

^^^^^^^^^^^Dana sure looks different in that picture

[poopoo333]

[Luke]

OK.

I went back to September 2008. There have been 6 draws in the UFC in the last 2.5 years: Maynard/Edgar, Penn/Fitch, Bongfelt/Natal, Kongo/Browne, Uno/Camoes, and Lentz/Tavares.

Of those 6 draws 4 of them have occured in the last 6 months.

The lines (I am guessing) average around +4000 for the draw. 10 fights per card. There has been 55 cards (39 UFCs, 11 UFN, 5 TUF). 550 fights.

550/ 6 = 1 draw for every 110 fights. So you would need +11000 on the draw option to have broken even.

In short... it is a bad bet over time. And even over the last year, where there has been an uptick in draws, it is still not that good.


So, nevermind.

well yeah......you cant just bet draw everytime and expect to turn a profit . I also dont think you can just take all the fights over a year and use that as a measure because a lot of match ups arent even suppose to be close (-400 to -500 lines).

I think if you took out all the -250 and above fights you'd be a lot closer to the 40 to 1 mark.

Also with MMA being 3 and 5 rounds its makes it even more unlikely of a draw because you need a 10-10 or 10-8 round to even out the score and those scores themselves are rare. In boxing fights are 8, 10 or 12 rounds so all you need is 10-9 rounds for a draw to happen .

I think when betting a toss up fight or betting a fighter by decision its a smart idea to cover yourself with a draw but only if you personally think the fight is going to be close ,otherwise just let it ride


draws happen so rarely that unless you have a gut feeling about a fight draws are too hard to predict

[edman5555]

I just watched the weigh ins. I'm feeling good about my bet on Diego. I've got him straight up and I've got him by decision. He is not smaller than Kampmann. He is a little shorter and a lot thicker. He will be getting takedowns.

[SPX]

I just watched that Reuban Duran highlight video. He looks like he is fast and can hit very hard.

I agree. I watched both highlights and two full fights. He looks like a solid prospect, although if he's mostly been fighting cans, I'm sure that has something to do with it. But as mentioned before, how he'll do against better guys is a question mark.

I hope Miz wins, because I really like him. But I'm going to stay away from this one.

[Svino]

Oh, and on the subject of "automatic" bets, my investigation into the decision prop is showing some early promise.

If you bet 1u on each Zuffa main card fight to go to decision, you would so far this year have risked 29u and won about 4.1u. (with the distribution by event being: -0.35u, +2.37u, +0.07u, -0.33u, +1.83u, and +0.48u)

[Svino]

In short... it is a bad bet over time. And even over the last year, where there has been an uptick in draws, it is still not that good.

So, nevermind.

On the other hand, if you already have weighted bets on both guys to win by decision because you're confident it will go the distance and the judges are fucking crazy, betting the draw is a pretty important hedge to make.


(goddammitsomuch)

[edman5555]

I just watched that Reuban Duran highlight video. He looks like he is fast and can hit very hard.

[MMA_scientist]

What do you guys think of Damacio Page and Brian Bowles?

I think Bowles will win (again), but Page has the value.

[MMA_scientist]

OK.

I went back to September 2008. There have been 6 draws in the UFC in the last 2.5 years: Maynard/Edgar, Penn/Fitch, Bongfelt/Natal, Kongo/Browne, Uno/Camoes, and Lentz/Tavares.

Of those 6 draws 4 of them have occured in the last 6 months.

The lines (I am guessing) average around +4000 for the draw. 10 fights per card. There has been 55 cards (39 UFCs, 11 UFN, 5 TUF). 550 fights.

550/ 6 = 1 draw for every 110 fights. So you would need +11000 on the draw option to have broken even.

In short... it is a bad bet over time. And even over the last year, where there has been an uptick in draws, it is still not that good.


So, nevermind.

[edman5555]

What do you guys think of Damacio Page and Brian Bowles?

[MMA_scientist]

OK did some quick research, since UFC 120 (09/2010) there have been 4 draws. The 3 I mentioned and Bongfelt/Natal at 121.

I think I might have something here. Stay tuned.

[MMA_scientist]

OFF TOPIC: How many draws do you guys remember seeing in the last 12 months? Penn/Fitch, Edgar/Maynard, Kongo/Browne- any others?

I ask, because the draw option is almost always +4000 or more. I think the draw option might be a + EV value bet, overall. Don't tell anyone.

With judges becoming more an more concerned with their inability to properly score, the draw bets might be seriously + EV over the course of 12 months.

[SPX]

SPX, I read your boyfriend Mike Hammersmith's analysis on the Mizugaki fight as well, and thought "hmm maybe Duran will be a good bet". Then I watched video on both guys and had no clue what Hammersmith was talking about. I wouldn't even bet on Duran when he opened at +200 yesterday. Then again, I am not confident enough to bet Mizugaki

Indeed. Thanks for the insight.

I'm going to go watch some stuff later tonight. I'll check back in with some thoughts of my own.