UFC on Versus 3 March 3rd

[SPX]

I can't give a counter-argument, other than "liar liar pants on fire."

LOL

It sounds like something Rios would have written, it does not reflect reality, at least as I see it.

Hammersmith.

Where that guys sees "Perfect timing on his strikes, takedowns, and a slick submission game", I see a heavy handed brawler with no wrestling and a low level positional game with a tight guillotine choke. I specifically looked into his gym and trainers, and I see no indication that he is above a blue belt level on the ground.

Where he sees "Mizugaki's upright posture, suspect chin," I see solid posture and submission defense a very solid chin. He when has he been KO'd? I don't see any indication of a chin problem in Mizugaki at all.

Aside from that whatever Duran has done, he has accomplished over complete tomato cans. Duran does appear to have heavy hands though. Mizugaki has been fighting the very best BWs in the whole wide world (Faber, Torres, Jorgenson, Yahya, and Curran are his last five fights) and he has not looked too bad. Although he got his back taken by Faber, he was actually winning the fight up to that point (I specifically recall because I bet on Faber). If Jason Reinhardt has taught us anything, it is that competition level makes difference.

Mizugaki stood with Torres and rolled with Yahya. I think he can survive whatever Reuben Duran throws at him.

But really, the biggest reason I think Mizugaki will take this is wrestling. Mizugaki should get him down and pound on him.

Thanks for the insight. Lots of good info there.

And I agree about Miz's competition. He definitely has not been handed any gimme fights. It's kind of fucked up when your FIRST fight in the WEC is against Torres when he was champ.

The Curran win was extremely close and could've gone either way. He might have even beaten Jorgensen if he hadn't gotten clocked in the first round, considering he came back to win the third. The Yahya win was decisive.

All of that said, just because he has been can crushing does not mean he cannot beat better guys.

That's true, too. Sometimes it's really difficult to know.

[poopoo333]

SPX, I read your boyfriend Mike Hammersmith's analysis on the Mizugaki fight as well, and thought "hmm maybe Duran will be a good bet". Then I watched video on both guys and had no clue what Hammersmith was talking about. I wouldn't even bet on Duran when he opened at +200 yesterday. Then again, I am not confident enough to bet Mizugaki

[MMA_scientist]

I should also mention that this is all predicated on Mizugaki not being an idiot. He seems to sometimes get drawn into his opponent's game. He has pretty much grappled with guys he should be standing with, and stood with guys he should be grappling with. If he decides to stand and bang, he could very well get beat.

[MMA_scientist]

I can't give a counter-argument, other than "liar liar pants on fire." It sounds like something Rios would have written, it does not reflect reality, at least as I see it. Where that guys sees "Perfect timing on his strikes, takedowns, and a slick submission game", I see a heavy handed brawler with no wrestling and a low level positional game with a tight guillotine choke. I specifically looked into his gym and trainers, and I see no indication that he is above a blue belt level on the ground.

Where he sees "Mizugaki's upright posture, suspect chin," I see solid posture and submission defense a very solid chin. He when has he been KO'd? I don't see any indication of a chin problem in Mizugaki at all.

Aside from that whatever Duran has done, he has accomplished over complete tomato cans. Duran does appear to have heavy hands though. Mizugaki has been fighting the very best BWs in the whole wide world (Faber, Torres, Jorgenson, Yahya, and Curran are his last five fights) and he has not looked too bad. Although he got his back taken by Faber, he was actually winning the fight up to that point (I specifically recall because I bet on Faber). If Jason Reinhardt has taught us anything, it is that competition level makes difference.

Mizugaki stood with Torres and rolled with Yahya. I think he can survive whatever Reuben Duran throws at him.

But really, the biggest reason I think Mizugaki will take this is wrestling. Mizugaki should get him down and pound on him.

All of that said, just because he has been can crushing does not mean he cannot beat better guys. But I don't think there is any empiracle evidence that he will be able to hang with Mizugaki. Doesn't mean it won't happen of course.

[SPX]

Hey Scientist, since you've done the research, give me the counter-argument to this assessment:



Takeya Mizugaki vs. Reuben Duran: Having suddenly appeared in the WEC and seemingly been swept off the map just as quickly, Takeya Mizugaki makes it into the UFC in a do-or-die fight. Sporting a 2-3 record in several tough fights in the division, Mizugaki was in the unfortunate position of being Urijah Faber's welcoming committee to the Bantamweight division, being choked out cold in the first round. His opponent is Reuben Duran, a UFC new-comer who cut his teeth inside the KOTC promotion, and sports a 7-2 record as a pro.
While I'd never heard of Duran before this fight, a few minutes on youtube showed exactly how far this kid could go on the big stage. Perfect timing on his strikes, takedowns, and a slick submission game make Duran a potential killer in the UFC Bantamweight division. The main issue for me here is Mizugaki's upright posture, suspect chin, and Duran's uncanny counter-punching. Don't blink, as Mizugaki doesn't even have time to get his feet under him before Duran lands one on the chin for the KO.

[MMA_scientist]

This Weidman guy sounds pretty good but he has only fought four times and Sakara is very experienced.

Weidman is a beast. He is an uber-prospect... think Phil Davis type prospect. He could flop of course, but I am getting him now before he is -500 on every fight.

[SPX]

War Fucking Mizugaki!

I've liked him ever since I first saw him against Torres. He hasn't been able to string any wins together and lost his last fight though, so I hope he can put a streak together starting with this one. I'd hate to see him get cut.

[MMA_scientist]

^^ yeah, supposedly it is a big cut for him too, so it might take something out of him.

[poopoo333]

I don't know if you know this detail, but Duran stepped up for this on short notice as well.

[MMA_scientist]

Been looking hard at Mizugaki/Duran. Duran is an athletic and big 135, but he is basically a power puncher. He has won his last few via guillotine. He trains out of a place called Pinnacle BJJ, but it looks like it is a small time place, a purple belt running the jj program. He has only 1 win over an opponent with a winning record (8-5) and that was a decision. He has lost to the 2 other guys with winning records. He has basically been looking great smashing cans in local shows. Mizugaki should have a big edge on the ground, and should be able to get the takedown. Mizugaki also has a solid chin. The only issue is that Duran looks like he hits like a truck and Mizugaki has gassed out in the past in fights where he had to grapple a lot. Still, I think Miz is worth a bet at -225.

[edman5555]

This Weidman guy sounds pretty good but he has only fought four times and Sakara is very experienced.

[SPX]

Jesus. Cantwell up to -150 on Sportsbook.

This line is all over the place.

[poopoo333]

^agreed. It would be worth a decent sized bet if he showed in the past he wanted to grapple. I also don't like the fact that he hasn't fought in 18 months

[SPX]

If Cantwell drops back to even or better, I'm going to put .5u on him.

Diabate got dropped by both Cane and Gustaffson, and once on the ground, Cantwell should clearly be the better grappler.

My biggest concern is that Cantwell won't come to grapple. He's mostly just wanted to kickbox since he came into the UFC and only went out of his way to go to the ground against Afroman. The possibility of a shitty gameplan combined with his injury layoff makes me hesitant to do a full unit bet, but at even or better I think it's worth half-a-u.

[edman5555]

Well you should be scared. PaulHarris is going to win.