UFC on Versus 3 March 3rd

[MMA_scientist]

Branch was outwrestled by Harris all three rounds before being put to sleep.

Just saying.

He was held down, but he was not really outgrappled. Harris wasn't doing much and Branch just kept triangle hunting. At least that is how I remembered it. But still, Palhares is not a wrestler, and he doesn't pin guys down that much- he usually goes for the submission.

[poopoo333]

^^I already got that shit memorized. I was betting from the library today at school and got all the opening lines.. Page was at +290 and Branch +185

[SPX]

Speaking of Gerald Harris, he lost his fight this weekend

Yeah, Scientist mentioned that. It sucks.

He's already got something else lined up for Tachi Palace in May, though.

I'd really like to see him in a Bellator MW tourney.

[MMA_scientist]

The way I see it is that Linhares engaged in a grappling match with Palhares in round 1 and whatever time there was in round 2 before he got subbed, which gassed Palhares out. Palhares slowed down against Horn, and I am pretty sure that was fairly one sided IIRC. He also slowed down against Hendo as well IIRC. I think Branch will be able to hold his own on the mat, and if this turns into a faster paced grappling match on the floor, I am sure Palhares will significantly slow down and Branch will be able to capitalize. Branch probably won't be too easy to take down either, he was stuffing Harris as well

Yeah, but Palhares might very well outstrike Branch. He has some nice leg kicks and Branch's standup sucks balls. At least he has some reach/

[poopoo333]

Good point. I wonder if Branch will just go for the TDs and work from the top and try to avoid subs. I do remember Branch improved significantly from the Drwal fight to the Attonito fight. In the Drwal fight he seemed slow and kind of telegraphed his TDs, but in the Attonito fight he looked great in comparison, he looked quick and his takedowns looked smooth. So there is a chance he is one of those fighters that is going to look improved every single fight

[edman5555]

FYI Poopoo. You will prob get a good arb opportunity on Paul Harris.

[poopoo333]

I know. I actually figured I'd get an arb on Branch and Page when making the bets. I probably won't arb out though because I ain't scared homie

[edman5555]

Well you should be scared. PaulHarris is going to win.

[SPX]

If Cantwell drops back to even or better, I'm going to put .5u on him.

Diabate got dropped by both Cane and Gustaffson, and once on the ground, Cantwell should clearly be the better grappler.

My biggest concern is that Cantwell won't come to grapple. He's mostly just wanted to kickbox since he came into the UFC and only went out of his way to go to the ground against Afroman. The possibility of a shitty gameplan combined with his injury layoff makes me hesitant to do a full unit bet, but at even or better I think it's worth half-a-u.

[poopoo333]

^agreed. It would be worth a decent sized bet if he showed in the past he wanted to grapple. I also don't like the fact that he hasn't fought in 18 months

[SPX]

Jesus. Cantwell up to -150 on Sportsbook.

This line is all over the place.

[edman5555]

This Weidman guy sounds pretty good but he has only fought four times and Sakara is very experienced.

[MMA_scientist]

Been looking hard at Mizugaki/Duran. Duran is an athletic and big 135, but he is basically a power puncher. He has won his last few via guillotine. He trains out of a place called Pinnacle BJJ, but it looks like it is a small time place, a purple belt running the jj program. He has only 1 win over an opponent with a winning record (8-5) and that was a decision. He has lost to the 2 other guys with winning records. He has basically been looking great smashing cans in local shows. Mizugaki should have a big edge on the ground, and should be able to get the takedown. Mizugaki also has a solid chin. The only issue is that Duran looks like he hits like a truck and Mizugaki has gassed out in the past in fights where he had to grapple a lot. Still, I think Miz is worth a bet at -225.

[poopoo333]

I don't know if you know this detail, but Duran stepped up for this on short notice as well.

[MMA_scientist]

^^ yeah, supposedly it is a big cut for him too, so it might take something out of him.