2011 Off topic thread(basketball,movies,etc whatever)

[MMA_scientist]

Sorry man, you are just wrong. I am 100% sure that you are. I KNOW I could have been uber rich if I would have focused even harder and went to school. I also made some bad investments that were all MY fault. If I would have been even wiser with my money I would be a multi millionaire right now. the fact that you think people like Jobs and Gates made their forturnes because of luck is just plain scary.

I fall somewhere in between you two. I think people like Gates, Jobs, Buffett, they had a combination of natural ability that most of us do not possess, and they were also somewhat lucky. For every Steve Jobs, there are 1000 guys that tried and failed. These actors, athletes, they are lucky to be born with genes that make them athletic and attractive. A lot of businesses that gain steam, it is somewhat random. Why does one video go viral and another one flops... it just has to be the right thing at the right time. I think there is definitely an element of right place, right time to many sucessful businesses.

That said, I am 35, and without hesitation I can say that had I worked harder in school, not wasted my early investing years, not spent so much on food and messing around... I could easily have mulitple millions in the bank by now. But I didn't, because wealth was not my top priority. But I don't begrudge someone who made it his priority

[sbjj]

I think that most people can live a fairly comfortable lifestyle by working hard . . . but getting to that Mark Zuckerberg level takes something extra. Often it comes down to being at the right place at the right time. Or knowing the right people. Or coming up with the right idea at just the moment that society was really ready for it. All of these things are elements beyond your control.

Basically what I'm saying is that there are plenty of people in the world who took their shot and didn't make it . . . a lot more, in fact, than DID make it. Take writers, for instance. There are a fuckload of people out there who have worked extremely hard to craft the great American novel. But despite their hard work and persistence, very few actually ended up getting published, and almost none get to the Stephen King level.

Once again, that has nothing to do with luck. Those writers are just not as good. Just like the people on American Idol are not as good.

[sbjj]

I fall somewhere in between you two. I think people like Gates, Jobs, Buffett, they had a combination of natural ability that most of us do not possess, and they were also somewhat lucky. For every Steve Jobs, there are 1000 guys that tried and failed. These actors, athletes, they are lucky to be born with genes that make them athletic and attractive. A lot of businesses that gain steam, it is somewhat random. Why does one video go viral and another one flops... it just has to be the right thing at the right time. I think there is definitely an element of right place, right time to many sucessful businesses.

That said, I am 35, and without hesitation I can say that had I worked harder in school, not wasted my early investing years, not spent so much on food and messing around... I could easily have mulitple millions in the bank by now. But I didn't, because wealth was not my top priority. But I don't begrudge someone who made it his priority

But a guy having a great idea is not luck. Luck would be finding a million dollars behind a wall in one of your houses.

[SPX]

But that has nothing to do with luck. Those are dudes who THINK they have a good idea and do not. They should be realistic and find another avenue to wealth.

I can assure that there are plenty of developers who come up with cool shit and end up just giving it away because they fail to sell it.

To use another example, I personally know some filmmakers who have very good, professional documentaries but they'll be lucky if they make their money back even though their shit is infinitely more interesting than Transformers 2.

[sbjj]

I can assure that there are plenty of developers who come up with cool shit and end up just giving it away because they fail to sell it.

To use another example, I personally know some filmmakers who have very good, professional documentaries but they'll be lucky if they make their money back even though their shit is infinitely more interesting than Transformers 2.

That is still not luck. That is not correctly gauging the market for a product.

[sbjj]

Anyone making a documentary in hopes of getting rich is on drugs.

[MMA_scientist]

But the point is that wealth, when concentrated, can grow itself easily, generally without particular skill, hard work or effort. A system that implements nothing to check this natural positive-feedback mechanism of rich getting richer and poor getting poorer is going to experience runaway wealth stratification, and all its accompanying social problems.

That is actually interesting. I have never heard it explained that way, which is surprising. The other issue is that it supposes the poor in your example has no control over his $20k lifestyle.

[SPX]

Once again, that has nothing to do with luck. Those writers are just not as good. Just like the people on American Idol are not as good.

You're living in a fantasy land. I assure you that's not how it works in reality. In fact, a lot of people don't even think Stephen King is a very good writer. (I do personally like his books, though.)

But staying with Stephen King, here's a story:

Some time ago a a writer named Ron McLarty wrote a manuscript called "The Memory of Running." But he couldn't find a publisher for it. So what he did was self-publish it in the form of an audiobook, narrated by himself. Somehow a copy of the audio book made its way to Stephen King, who publicly proclaimed it to be "the best book you can't read."

Guess what happened then? A publisher rapidly jumped on it, it was published in rapid fashion, and made its way to the upper echelons of the best seller list.

You're going to tell me that there's not a huge element of luck there?

But a guy having a great idea is not luck.

I think in some ways it is. An idea is something that just sort of comes to you, as illustrated by the statement, "And then it hit me!" It's not like you can just work really hard at idea creation and have the same success as Zuckerberg.

[SPX]

That is still not luck. That is not correctly gauging the market for a product.

Anyone making a documentary in hopes of getting rich is on drugs.

That shit that Al Gore did on global warming made almost $50M + whatever will be made via home video, PPV and TV sales.

[sbjj]

You're living in a fantasy land. I assure you that's not how it works in reality. In fact, a lot of people don't even think Stephen King is a very good writer. (I do personally like his books, though.)

But staying with Stephen King, here's a story:

Some time ago a a writer named Ron McLarty wrote a manuscript called "The Memory of Running." But he couldn't find a publisher for it. So what he did was self-publish it in the form of an audiobook, narrated by himself. Somehow a copy of the audio book made its way to Stephen King, who publicly proclaimed it to be "the best book you can't read."

Guess what happened then? A publisher rapidly jumped on it, it was published in rapid fashion, and made its way to the upper echelons of the best seller list.

You're going to tell me that there's not a huge element of luck there?




I think in some ways it is. An idea is something that just sort of comes to you, as illustrated by the statement, "And then it hit me!" It's not like you can just work really hard at idea creation and have the same success as Zuckerberg.

Big problem here. This all started out with you proclaiming that it was mostly luck. In no way would I say that luck is never involed. But you coming up with a handful of examples does not prove your point that becoming rich is mostly luck. That is like saying that most good poker players or sportsbettors are because they are lucky. I really would assume that no one actually believes that. Of course there are exceptions, but I just can not grasp that anyone would believe the majority of rich people out there are rich because they were lucky.

[sbjj]

That shit that Al Gore did on global warming made almost $50M + whatever will be made via home video, PPV and TV sales.

Damn SPX, once again. That is the exception to the rule. You will always be able to find an instance for anything. So that is one damn documentary out of how many? Why would anyone producing a documentary expect to get rich? Thats like buying a metal detector and expecting to find treasure.

[SPX]

Big problem here. This all started out with you proclaiming that it was mostly luck. In no way would I say that luck is never involed. But you coming up with a handful of examples does not prove your point that becoming rich is mostly luck. That is like saying that most good poker players or sportsbettors are because they are lucky. I really would assume that no one actually believes that. Of course there are exceptions, but I just can not grasp that anyone would believe the majority of rich people out there are rich because they were lucky.

I think sportsbetting and poker playing is different because anyone can do it. You just have to open an account, put some money in it, and you're off. Most industries don't work that way.

Let's go back to Mark Zuckerberg (I assume you've seen The Social Network):

If Zuckerberg had never met with the Winklevoss twins to discuss working on their website (Harvard Connection), would he have ever gotten the idea to create Facebook? Maybe . . . but very possibly not. And if not, where would he be now? It's impossible to say, but probably no where near as successful.

My point is that I think that for just about everyone who has gone on to be ultra-successful, if you go back through the timeline of their success then you'll run across one or more events that are like Zuckerberg's meeting with the Winklevosses. And it's these little details that separate those who go on to become ultra-successful from those who only become mildly successful or complete failures.

[sbjj]

You have brought up Zuckerberg a few times now. Have you ever thought maybe he is just smarter than you and I. Maybe he is just a harder worker, or just has more drive than us.

[SPX]

Damn SPX, once again. That is the exception to the rule. You will always be able to find an instance for anything. So that is one damn documentary out of how many? Why would anyone producing a documentary expect to get rich? Thats like buying a metal detector and expecting to find treasure.

Well that's what we're talking about here, the exceptions to the rule . . . the 1%ers.

[sbjj]

Zuckerberg took a small idea and made it huge. That has nothing to do with luck.