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GSP by sub
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^^I bet on GSP by sub @+1100 lolComment
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Shields wishes he had the standup that Fitch has. Shields has absolutely no chance standing. It is takedown or bust. The only question is whether Shields' wrestling has gotten better than GSPs somehow. I know that is all he has been working on- he has had Sonnen and Askren in there... But GSP knows Shields is going to be trying to just get in on a double leg and never let go. I have to think he is going to be ready for that.2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5uComment
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While I think GSP takes this more than 9 times out of 10, I do think Shields has several possible ways to win:
1) Takedowns and top control
2) Wall-and-stall
3) Miracle sub
#1 Seems like the least likely of the three to me. I wonder if GSP's jiu-jitsu is overrated.Comment
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^^#2 is the most likely imoComment
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PRELIMINARY CARD (Facebook)
- Claude Patrick vs. Daniel Roberts
- Ivan Menjivar vs. Charlie Valencia
- Jason MacDonald vs. Ryan Jensen
- John Makdessi vs. Kyle Watson
- Pablo Garza vs. Yves Jabouin
Any thoughts on these?Comment
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We know that GSP's top game is solid... and even way back in 2004 he was able to sweep Hughes. He passed BJ Penn's guard kind of easily when they fought last. I think GSP has a very good passing and submission defense. We have not seen him on bottom for more than a second... I guess the question is what should Shields be able to put GSP on the ground when Fitch, Koscheck, Hughes, Sherk, Trigg all failed? The only thing I guess you could say is the Shields is fully committed to a grappling match. He has never willingly stood that I can recall. If he gets stuffed, he keeps trying.
I suppose Shields could catch a guillotine choke or try to force some wild scrambles... but that assumes GSP wants to fight on the ground. But why should he? GSP has a history of fighting to the weakness of the other guy, I am sure he is planning on standing unless forced to grapple. I also read where Danaher (GSPs bjj coach said Shields has the grappling equivalent of a knock out punch in his guillotine choke. So I am sure they have worked a lot on the guillotine defense.
The cage pressing is the only thing that concerns me really. I don't know what GSP will do if Shields tries to just hold him on the cage and magnet to his legs. I don't know... GSP is the obvious rightful favorite. But maybe it is best to just stay away at the current line.2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5uComment
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It is tough to bet these canadian cards because they take all these mid level canadians and match them up with guys they might be able to beat. I think all of those fights are close to even. Makdessi looks like a solid prospect, but Watson has that wrestling card to play. I don't think Watson will be able to hold him down and will probably get knocked out in stunning fashion. They are all really evenly matched IMO. I am not going to bet any of them most likely.2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5uComment
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Something to consider on Pierson. I just rewatched Pierson/Riddle and while he is strong with a good stiff jab and power in his strikes he clearly has conditioning issues. He laid a beating on Riddle in round one but even at the end of round two while peppering for half the round he was still visibly tired. I think Ellenberger takes this fight by outworking him.2013: +8.24u(increased unit size on 5/19)
Favorites: 20-6 + 6.13u
Underdogs: 10-19 -2.51u
Ludo's Locks Parlay Project: +1.4u
2012: +20.311uComment
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This is how I see it as well. Shields is not some invincible wrestling machine. Even without mentioning the end-of-the-round choke, Mayhem was able to take a couple of rounds off Shields when they fought.
Fuck that. I'm going to make some money off this fight.I heart cockComment
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Ok, I agree. I can't make my mind up here. On one hand, I envision GSP just coming out and decimating Shields in humiliating and spectacular fashion. On the other I see a fight that is hard to score because Shields just hangs on his legs the whole time. He is a slightly worse wrestler than Koscheck IMO, but he is way more crafty. I could see him trying to create some scrambles or going for a leg lock to try to change things up.
True, Mayhem gave Shields a decent fight, but he clearly lost IMO. Shields got stuffed by Lawler several times too... And we know about Kampmann.
You know what, you are right. I am letting the hype get to me. GSP is going to push his shit in.Last edited by MMA_scientist; 04-21-2011, 05:28 PM.2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5uComment
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Agreed. I am actually expecting round 1 being really competitive and high paced, then Ellenberger taking over in rounds 2 and 3. Riddle seemed content to stand, and I think Ellenberger will definitely shoot if he is losing on the feet. He is relentless too, so I doubt he will get stuffed and just give up.Comment
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