UFC 131 JDS vs Carwin

[MMA_scientist]

Just watched the countdown show. I am psyched for Maia/Munoz... I am big fan of both guys, I don't want to see either guy lose. Munoz comes off really well.

[Mr. IWS]

Scientist, he tried to take Mir down, but Mir stuffed him, and then that is how they ended up against the fence.

That is a good point. Im gonna watch that fight again.

[flyinggogoplata]

Yeah obviously you can be on them. I am saying that Shane Carwin can still be on steroids right now.

yeah hgh is hard to catch but canada doesnt fuck around. Blood tests and shit. He's probably off of them for this camp at least.

[Svino]

I think there are two very good lines on this card: Carwin and Maia.

With Carwin / JDS, I think people are making the frequent mistake of overvaluing technique vs. power again. While we can all laugh at Carwin's excuses about the 'lactic acidosis' monster, the flurry of energy he expended against Lesnar in the first round was something of a special case. Also, I think it is almost always a bad idea to bet a favorite who is up against a better wrestler who is also the best wrestler they have ever faced (i.e. takedown defense not proven at this level). I *am* worried about Carwin's age and surgery, but at dog odds, I'm scooping up Carwin in a heartbeat. I do have to agree with everyone else though, that I can't say I would be shocked if JDS turns his lights out.

FWIW, Carwin's two takedown attempts against Mir could technically be called "failed", but they were really more "halfhearted", the kind of takedown that's half a feint and half a takedown. He was happy to clinch against the fence if the takedown wasn't sitting right there.

Is there a link to this "Vaghanny" guy? Google gives me nothing.

[SPX]

JDS=win

That's all anyone needs to know.

[poopoo333]

Will they? I'm just judging what they do have open, it seems the lines are tighter then usual. 5dimes doesnt have near the props that paddy power has. And with that vaghanny guy releasing all his props and arbs to the public most books are wising up and have much sharper lines in general on props to go along with the low limits.

Vaughany is a beast. He has one bad event over a span of 4 months, and the rest are like +40u events.

I am going to be on JDS pretty large. I think some of you are kinda of ignoring what is really happening to Carwin. the guy is losing mass because he is off the juice

What makes you think Carwin is off? He is 35 years old, probably used higher amounts of testosterone in the pas which more than likely fucked his levels up...you know what that means? Prescribed testosterone from the doctor. Even if that isn't the case, it's not the toughest process to beat a test for testosterone. Also, he is probably on HGH, which is virtually undetectable. This is the only time I have seen anybody getting busted for HGH: http://velonews.competitor.com/2011/...for-hgh_164190

Nobody else that I can think of has been caught.

yeah hgh is hard to catch but canada doesnt fuck around. Blood tests and shit. He's probably off of them for this camp at least.

Blood tests and shit=they do that in the olympics. Has anybody been caught for HGH in the olympics? Do you really think there is not one olympic athlete that uses HGH?

[poopoo333]

Is there a link to this "Vaghanny" guy? Google gives me nothing.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/boxing-mma-ufc-betting/522565-vaughanys-mma-picks.html

[Svino]

Vaughany is a beast. He has one bad event over a span of 4 months, and the rest are like +40u events.

Ah. So that's the spelling. Thanks.

[flyinggogoplata]

Vaughany is a beast. He has one bad event over a span of 4 months, and the rest are like +40u events.



What makes you think Carwin is off? He is 35 years old, probably used higher amounts of testosterone in the pas which more than likely fucked his levels up...you know what that means? Prescribed testosterone from the doctor. Even if that isn't the case, it's not the toughest process to beat a test for testosterone. Also, he is probably on HGH, which is virtually undetectable. This is the only time I have seen anybody getting busted for HGH: http://velonews.competitor.com/2011/...for-hgh_164190

Nobody else that I can think of has been caught.



Blood tests and shit=they do that in the olympics. Has anybody been caught for HGH in the olympics? Do you really think there is not one olympic athlete that uses HGH?

not sure but Carwin has some balls if he's still on the gear.

[poopoo333]

not sure but Carwin has some balls if he's still on the gear.

Yeah, but they are a little smaller then when he isn't on the gear.

[flyinggogoplata]

Vaughany is almost impossible to follow unless you have outs in europe and murder the opening lines.

[Mr. IWS]

JDS=win

That's all anyone needs to know.

[MMA_scientist]

Vaughany is almost impossible to follow unless you have outs in europe and murder the opening lines.

I looked at that thread... he got Herman/Einemo ITD @ -120... it is -245 on 5d. That is not because he is moving the line. I am pretty sure it opened there. You really think that many people are following this person? I have never heard of him and his thread is only 1 year old.

Hell, Edman is up some 50u, right here on IWS just in 5 months. You don't see lines moving off his plays. I don't think there are a lot of big money players that tail other guys.

[poopoo333]

The thing is, he gets opening lines over on these European books which open with great lines.

[MMA_scientist]

The thing is, he gets opening lines over on these European books which open with great lines.

But -120, that isn't great... it is just silly. I think everyone here would agree that it is worth a bet at -120. I mean, the OVERALL average for HW fights to go the distance is like 25%. But with these two guys it is even less likely than the average IMO. So what I am saying is that you would have to be a fool to take the other side of that bet, especially at a p2p book, where the line is "true" (the other person only got +120 for that).

I guess my point is that this guy is not causing 5d to react by failing to offer prop bets.