UFC on Versus 4

[flyinggogoplata]

I see huge value in that Morecraft line. Im going to hit it. Mitrione might get stopped in the first round.

[Thewisemann]

Little help. Last few events I have been doing something that has been working quite well. I split my bets in half, and parlay a fighter with one half of the bets. It really does not matter the line. I used Barnett last event. Wiedman the event before, and Duran the event before that.

Question is...who is that fighter for this event?

Kongo?

[Thewisemann]

Interesting approach, I think Edman does something similar...

Anyway, I don't have an answer. I like Mitrione and I also like Lauzon. I may not bet at all on this card though.

Explain Lauzon please.

[sbjj]

I think it's pretty risky to "force it" with that kind of strategy. I mean, if you find a fighter who is both a solid favorite and offered at a good line, it could be a reasonable way to add value to bets. I'm not sure I see anyone like that on this card though.

Risky? how do you figure. Instead of laying 30 units on barnett straight up. I layed 20 on him in parlays with a few other fighters. Got a much better payout on him with less cash at stake.

[flyinggogoplata]

Risky? how do you figure. Instead of laying 30 units on barnett straight up. I layed 20 on him in parlays with a few other fighters. Got a much better payout on him with less cash at stake.

you also raised your variance

[sbjj]

Oh, I get it Svino. You mean force a bet(or a fighter into my bets). No, do not get me wrong, i will not force it. That is the thing, I am not sure I will do it this event because I am not to sure any of these guys are near locks.

Really do not want to do it with Kongo, because I can still get him @ -170 or so(I assume).

I was real confident in Duran, Weidman, and Barnett.

[sbjj]

you also raised your variance

And...

[Svino]

Risky? how do you figure. Instead of laying 30 units on barnett straight up. I layed 20 on him in parlays with a few other fighters. Got a much better payout on him with less cash at stake.

I'm just saying it's risky in the sense that you're effectively making a very large bet on a single outcome. That isn't something one generally wants to force without a particularly good opportunity (whether it's in a single bet, or mixed in with parlays).

[flyinggogoplata]

And...

If you're expected ROI is 5% on straight bets, it would be 8.9% on 2 team parlays, and 16.3% on 3-teamers but with more variance. So I hope you're adjusting your BR for the variance.

[Svino]

Oh, I get it Svino. You mean force a bet(or a fighter into my bets). No, do not get me wrong, i will not force it. That is the thing, I am not sure I will do it this event because I am not to sure any of these guys are near locks.

I was real confident in Duran, Weidman, and Barnett.

Yeah, that's what I meant. Those three were clearly solid bets, though.

[sbjj]

Yeah, that's what I meant. Those three were clearly solid bets, though.

Yea, i get ya. And thanks for bringing up. The last thing I want to do is force a bet on this card. i have guys I like. But no one just stands out big time.

[Thewisemann]

I see value in Morecraft, i think meathead should be favored, but
come on. Small play on Morecraft

[edman5555]

I disagree with you about Mitrione Scientist. He has some decent wins but he has been bigger than his opponents so far. Morecraft is going to have a few inches and probably a few pounds on him. Its almost like he is fighting a guy in a higher weight class. This should be a lot different. I think the value is on Morecraft. Christian handled Mccorkie and he nearly beat Struve. I don't see why he can't beat Mitrione. I don't know who to favor in this one but you should definetly note the size difference. Toss up IMO.

Bets I am looking at now:

Kongo if his line gets back below -200.

Maybe John howard

Nik Lentz decision

Tyson Griffin decision

Morecraft

Daniel Roberts

Not Rick story inside the distance

Not Joe stevensen inside the distance

[edman5555]

I should have hit Cheick Kongos line but I am kinda hooked on waiting until the last day to place my bets. I am also a little trigger shy. I feel my big loss has to be coming.. As far as the lock of the card, I am not so sure about any of them. I feel Daniel Roberts should be able to handle Rich attonito but who knows what will happen. Dave Branch was able to do it.

[Thewisemann]

I disagree with you about Mitrione Scientist. He has some decent wins but he has been bigger than his opponents so far. Morecraft is going to have a few inches and probably a few pounds on him. Its almost like he is fighting a guy in a higher weight class. This should be a lot different. I think the value is on Morecraft. Christian handled Mccorkie and he nearly beat Struve. I don't see why he can't beat Mitrione. I don't know who to favor in this one but you should definetly note the size difference. Toss up IMO.

Bets I am looking at now:

Kongo if his line gets back below -200.

Maybe John howard

Nik Lentz decision

Tyson Griffin decision

Morecraft

Daniel Roberts

Not Rick story inside the distance

Not Joe stevensen inside the distance

How could you consider Howard at that line?