Strikeforce Dallas June 18th

[flyinggogoplata]

What if you bet all dogs, a lot of the time the closing line is the best line you'll see on the dog

If you're talking about the superbowl with huge amounts of public money coming in the best line on the dog comes at closing. But what about wnba or arena football? Just yesterday in the Wnba a dog at opening closed as the favorite. BTCL is the best way to tell if someone is a winning gambler.

[SPX]

I wonder if a fighter who has a significant advantage over his opponent has ever bet on himself to win a particular prop where the odds are good, like a striker betting on himself to win via submission in round two or some shit like that. And then gone into the fight focused on getting an RNC in the second round.

[Svino]

I think this is the real problem. If you knew for a mathematical fact exactly what the edge is, then full kelly would probably be the most profitable way to go. But at the end of the day, we're just guessing.

Yeah, I agree with what you guys are saying. You have to play things a lot more conservatively in MMA betting because you can rarely be that confident in your valuation of a line. With small bets, every bet you make on the correct side of the line is positive expected growth. With Kelly bets, you risk making severely negative expected growth wagers if your estimation is even a little off.

I don't think the Kelly Criterion is a totally useless thing to think about, though. Sometimes I'll make a "worst case" estimate and look at the Kelly for that. Then there fights (Couture vs. Toney) that I really do believe can be pinned down very accurately, so Kelly is useful there as well.

[Luke]

If you're talking about the superbowl with huge amounts of public money coming in the best line on the dog comes at closing. But what about wnba or arena football? Just yesterday in the Wnba a dog at opening closed as the favorite. BTCL is the best way to tell if someone is a winning gambler.

I was talking about MMA fights , a lot of the time the best dog line is the closing line .

[SPX]

Two things. . .

1. I was wondering when you were going show up, Svino. You must've seen the Batsignal.

2. I should've pounded the shit out of that Couture line. Shame on me.

[Luke]

I wonder if a fighter who has a significant advantage over his opponent has ever bet on himself to win a particular prop where the odds are good, like a striker betting on himself to win via submission in round two or some shit like that. And then gone into the fight focused on getting an RNC in the second round.

Its probably happened before but its highly illegal.

[SPX]

Illegal, sure. I'm just wondering.

I mean, a perfect example would've been Jeremy Stephens vs Danny Downes. Stephens never submits anyone but almost yanked Downes' arm off with a kimura that he kept working on.

I wonder what the line was for Stephens via submission.

[poopoo333]

We are fools for not putting our life savings on Couture over Toney @-460

[Luke]

We are fools for not putting our life savings on Couture over Toney @-460

forget Couture how about when Cain was +100 to Big NOG

[SPX]

Don't you mean . . . -100?!?!

[Svino]

forget Couture how about when Cain was +100 to Big NOG

I bet on Nog. I'm so embarrassed.

[flyinggogoplata]

The Greek and Cris the biggest offshore books in the world still have 250 Dollar limits on mma openers. You have to ask yourself why are the limits so low?

[poopoo333]

Didn't he open at like +200 on Bodog? This was when I first started betting and I really looked at the fights way differently back then. If I could go back in time I would have looked at that fight totally different (before they fought of course) then I actually did.

[Svino]

Don't you mean . . . -100?!?!

LOL, SPX. Why do American bookies still use the moneyline notation. It's so dumb.

[Luke]

The Greek and Cris the biggest offshore books in the world still have 250 Dollar limits on mma openers. You have to ask yourself why are the limits so low?

Someone find the thread I explained this is