Strikeforce Dallas June 18th

[MMA_scientist]

Scientist...go big on Werdum. I dare you.

I am just stating the case as I see it. Don't be offended. I just think the line is way off. I will probably be eating shit Sunday morning.

Truth be told, I am just excited because Werdum wore his gi at the weigh in.

[MMA_scientist]

bol at luke's sig, I just noticed that.

[poopoo333]

^^I'm not offended at all. I think Overeem is way overpriced and I only want him to win because he is jacked and black. And I was saying go big on Werdum because if he is +300 and you REALLY think he should be favored...that's a crazy deal


And I knew that came out from you due to the gi.

[MMA_scientist]

^^I'm not offended at all. I think Overeem is way overpriced and I only want him to win because he is jacked and black. And I was saying go big on Werdum because if he is +300 and you REALLY think he should be favored...that's a crazy deal


And I knew that came out from you due to the gi.

I do think it is a crazy good deal, even if I think he should be the dog, I don't think he should be that much of a dog... I mean, Werdum already beat him once, and he is coming off back to back wins over the best HW to ever live and a top 10 guy in Bigfoot. The line is just stupid. I really do want to go big because I think there is a ton of value... but I don't want to risk a lot on a fight that could really go either way IMO (even though I am still favoring Werdum, I acknowledge that Reem could easily crumble him).

[poopoo333]

Whatever, lock of the night is Griggs anyways

[flyinggogoplata]

Well scientist kelly criterion says bet the percentage of your bankroll that's equal to your edge. Full kelly is aggressive but it's mathematically the best bank roll management system.

[MMA_scientist]

Just look at the stone cold stats of the fight. Werdum has been stopped once. Overeem has gone 1-3 in decisions. And of his fights that have gone past the 1st round, he is 3-5. Most of Overeem's wins are actually by submission, not KO. He is probably ot going to be submitting Werdum. Overeem fades and Werdum is hard to stop. Overeem is 1-6 against bjj blackbelts, beating only Belfort, a MW. On his current win streak, he has not fought a single grappler (well Fujita, but cmon).

All that said, maybe the horsemeat really did make Overeem that much better. I just think the odds are with Werdum.

[MMA_scientist]

Well scientist kelly criterion says bet the percentage of your bankroll that's equal to your edge. Full kelly is aggressive but it's mathematically the best bank roll management system.

full kelly is bankroll suicide. I could see doing quarter kelly... but I don't bet that way. I bet more when I think the likelyhood of success is greater.

[edman5555]

i go 18.2% kelly and 2.5% martin short system.

[poopoo333]

This is out of shape Werdum:

[flyinggogoplata]

full kelly is bankroll suicide. I could see doing quarter kelly... but I don't bet that way. I bet more when I think the likelyhood of success is greater.

hmm I believe betting more for success then value is leaving a lot of money on the table.

[MMA_scientist]

hmm I believe betting more for success then value is leaving a lot of money on the table.

a trade I am willing to make to make sure I stay in the game. I don't really believe that I can quantify the edge to a precise enough degree to make confident bets on a kelly style system.

Full Kelly is WAY too volatile, you will wipe out your bankroll pretty quick. But yeah, I should bet more on fights with a lot of value, but I don't like bankroll swings. It is what it is... I know my problems, and I try to play away from my weaknesses.

[Luke]

This is out of shape Werdum:

I didnt say out of shape I said worse shape than the fedor fight ......and he is imo

[MMA_scientist]

He definitely looks a little soft, I will give you that. HIs watch has to weigh 4 pounds though.

[flyinggogoplata]

a trade I am willing to make to make sure I stay in the game. I don't really believe that I can quantify the edge to a precise enough degree to make confident bets on a kelly style system.

Full Kelly is WAY too volatile, you will wipe out your bankroll pretty quick. But yeah, I should bet more on fights with a lot of value, but I don't like bankroll swings. It is what it is... I know my problems, and I try to play away from my weaknesses.

kelly is pretty nuts. If I read it correctly your bankroll is supposed to be your net-worth. Imagine making a bet on money your backing up with your house, car or credit lines. I guess pro's do it everyday but it takes some serious balls and belief in your edge.