Strikeforce Dallas June 18th

[MMA_scientist]

If you take Werdum would it be straight up or by submission? I could really see him grabbing rounds 2 and 3 if it went the distance. I'm leaning Werdum straight up but will his line go higher then +300?

I already took him straight up. I don't like to try to narrow down a finish, it doesn't work for me.

The thing is that Werdum is very hard to put away, he has only been stopped once in his career, by JDS. He is very hard to gnp, so Reem really needs to put the lights out standing to get a stoppage. Even though Overeem hits like a truck, it is usually more death by bludgeoning... he has the knees, but it usually is not just knocking someone dead with a precision shot. I do worry about the knees though. Werdum is going to be looking to to tie him up, and Overeem will be throwing knees like a wildman. Probably in the junk and elsewhere. But Werdum does get rocked all the time standing, it just that he recovers pretty quickly and his posture control from guard is so good that it is hard to hurt him from top.

Since Overeem has always wilted as fights wear on, I am banking on survival from Werdum and then turn the tide later in the fight. Still, in good conscience, I have to admit that Overeem is probably going to win. Is it a 5 rounder?

[poopoo333]

I agree with basically everything you said Scientist. I am not sure about the Wilcox/Calvacante fight though. The thing about Wilcox is that the fights of his that are fresh in my mind, his gameplan was "sprawl and brawl". Do you think he will want to keep it standing? Or do you think he will use his wrestling? Is he the type of wrestler that uses the fence, grinds, and drags people to the floor? Or is he the type of wrestler that shoots from a distance/has a big double leg?

[poopoo333]

Is it a 5 rounder?

No.

[MMA_scientist]

I think Masvidal/Noons has to do with which guy brings their A-game. The best Noons beats the best Masvidal, but the best Masvidal beats a Noons who's not trying is hardest. Masvidal's boxing is pretty damn solid, better than a lot of guys at LW. But of course Noons's is too.

Soo... what are you saying? Where would you put the line if it were a kickboxing match? I think Noons can keep it standing, so that just leaves striking.

[sbjj]

I love underdogs as much as anyone. BUT, Werdum is not going to beat Overeem. And I had a healthy bet on Werdum over Fedor. Overeem is not the same fighter he once was. He is calm, and calculating. HE WILL NOT GAS! This is a 3 round fight, and he either stops Werdum, or batters him for 3 rounds.

The only play this fight I see is to parlay Overeem with another fight you have confidence in. I am personally going to parlay him with Josh.

Rogers is just not on Barnetts level.

I favor Noons, but not by a whole lot.

Same with Cormier.

[MMA_scientist]

No.

well that sucks. I would definitely like Werdum more in a longer fight. I think Overeem will start to fade in round 2, but he may still win the round (assuming it makes it that far).

[SPX]

Soo... what are you saying? Where would you put the line if it were a kickboxing match? I think Noons can keep it standing, so that just leaves striking.

I think the line should be pretty close to even, with Noons slightly favored.

I would probably bet Noons at -130 or better and would bet Masvidal at +150 or better.

[flyinggogoplata]

Everyone is basing the new Overeem based on what he did in K-1. Overeem has only faced one guy in the top ten at heavyweight. And it was the bum Burt Rogers.

[MMA_scientist]

I love underdogs as much as anyone. BUT, Werdum is not going to beat Overeem. And I had a healthy bet on Werdum over Fedor. Overeem is not the same fighter he once was. He is calm, and calculating. HE WILL NOT GAS! This is a 3 round fight, and he either stops Werdum, or batters him for 3 rounds.

The only play this fight I see is to parlay Overeem with another fight you have confidence in. I am personally going to parlay him with Josh.

What makes you so certain he won't gas out? He hasn't been out of round 1 in like 3 years. Also, he has only gone to round 2 twice in the last 5 years. Werdum is difficult to put away.

I am not saying Overeem will lose, and as I said, you have to favor Overeem at this point... but I like the odds on Werdum a lot more. My issue with Overeem is that he really hasn't faced anyone very good in the last 3 years, basically since becoming "uber-reem."

Still, I did not think about the fact that Werdum is coming off surgery, and he could gas out too.

[sbjj]

Everyone is basing the new Overeem based on what he did in K-1. Overeem has only faced one guy in the top ten at heavyweight. And it was the bum Burt Rogers.

No, some people are actually looking at what kind of fighter he has become. He no longer has wasted energy like he did at 205. He is a very calculated striker, and does not overextend himself. I think many people are looking back years ago and basing their current opininions on a fighter that no longer exists.

Fighters change, and they improve.

Oh, and this will look like one of his K1 fights. because Werdum will not take him down.

[flyinggogoplata]

No, some people are actually looking at what kind of fighter he has become. He no longer has wasted energy like he did at 205. He is a very calculated striker, and does not overextend himself. I think many people are looking back years ago and basing their current opininions on a fighter that no longer exists.

Fighters change, and they improve.

Oh, and this will look like one of his K1 fights. because Werdum will not take him down.

Uh wasn't he at Heavyweight when Sergei straight melted him when he gassed horribly again?

[sbjj]

What makes you so certain he won't gas out? He hasn't been out of round 1 in like 3 years. Also, he has only gone to round 2 twice in the last 5 years. Werdum is difficult to put away.

I am not saying Overeem will lose, and as I said, you have to favor Overeem at this point... but I like the odds on Werdum a lot more. My issue with Overeem is that he really hasn't faced anyone very good in the last 3 years, basically since becoming "uber-reem."

Still, I did not think about the fact that Werdum is coming off surgery, and he could gas out too.

He will not gas because his fighting style has changed. The guy looked like he just got out of bed after he smashed Rogers.

[flyinggogoplata]

What makes you so certain he won't gas out? He hasn't been out of round 1 in like 3 years. Also, he has only gone to round 2 twice in the last 5 years. Werdum is difficult to put away.

I am not saying Overeem will lose, and as I said, you have to favor Overeem at this point... but I like the odds on Werdum a lot more. My issue with Overeem is that he really hasn't faced anyone very good in the last 3 years, basically since becoming "uber-reem."

Still, I did not think about the fact that Werdum is coming off surgery, and he could gas out too.

I really think Overeem is a media creation, with the web series and all. He really hasn't proved anything for all the hype he's getting. So what he ko'd Duffeee, so did a 300 lb overweight cop.

[flyinggogoplata]

He will not gas because his fighting style has changed. The guy looked like he just got out of bed after he smashed Rogers.

Again did you see the Sergei fight? He gassed again and he was at Heavyweight, He also gassed against Werdum and that was at Heavyweight.

[sbjj]

Uh wasn't he at Heavyweight when Sergei straight melted him when he gassed horribly again?

Obviously I will not get you to agree with me. You did not even read(understand) my post. Him gassing has little to do with his weight. It has to do with his fighting style. IT HAS CHANGED. If you do not see that, than bet a nice chunk on Werdum, you are getting nice dog odds.

And Sergei still could be his kryptonite even today...A tough as nails striker who can take a good shot and hang with anyone on the feet. Sergei is the COMPLETE OPPOSITE of Werdum.