Strikeforce Dallas June 18th

[flyinggogoplata]

I think this is the real problem. If you knew for a mathematical fact exactly what the edge is, then full kelly would probably be the most profitable way to go. But at the end of the day, we're just guessing.

Tracking your edge just takes time. Start a spreadsheet put the odds you bet at then the odds at the closing line. Over a thousand plays you can see your edge pretty clearly. If you routinely beat the closing line you're a winning gambler.

[SPX]

Werdum usually DOES win . . . Except when this happens. . .

[MMA_scientist]

Yea, scientist, you have me seriously thinking of hedging Ubereem, I got him at -215.

Don't do it. I am just excited Werdum wore his gi. Seriously, don't listen to me, Werdum is one of my fave HW's and I always say he is going to win.

[SPX]

I don't really believe that I can quantify the edge to a precise enough degree to make confident bets on a kelly style system.

I think this is the real problem. If you knew for a mathematical fact exactly what the edge is, then full kelly would probably be the most profitable way to go. But at the end of the day, we're just guessing.

[flyinggogoplata]

I believe I could make a living at this today, if only I were ballsy enough to cash out my savings and just go full on degenerate. Actually, I am. But my wife does not have that same faith in my gambling ability. So I have to convince her by building my stack from nothing... and then going full on degenerate.

I know it means nothing coming from me, but I fully support you going full degen.

[Thewisemann]

Yea, scientist, you have me seriously thinking of hedging Ubereem, I got him at -215.

[MMA_scientist]

kelly is pretty nuts. If I read it correctly your bankroll is supposed to be your net-worth. Imagine making a bet on money your backing up with your house, car or credit lines. I guess pro's do it everyday but it takes some serious balls and belief in your edge.

I believe I could make a living at this today, if only I were ballsy enough to cash out my savings and just go full on degenerate. Actually, I am. But my wife does not have that same faith in my gambling ability. So I have to convince her by building my stack from nothing... and then going full on degenerate.

[flyinggogoplata]

a trade I am willing to make to make sure I stay in the game. I don't really believe that I can quantify the edge to a precise enough degree to make confident bets on a kelly style system.

Full Kelly is WAY too volatile, you will wipe out your bankroll pretty quick. But yeah, I should bet more on fights with a lot of value, but I don't like bankroll swings. It is what it is... I know my problems, and I try to play away from my weaknesses.

kelly is pretty nuts. If I read it correctly your bankroll is supposed to be your net-worth. Imagine making a bet on money your backing up with your house, car or credit lines. I guess pro's do it everyday but it takes some serious balls and belief in your edge.

[MMA_scientist]

He definitely looks a little soft, I will give you that. HIs watch has to weigh 4 pounds though.

[Luke]

This is out of shape Werdum:

I didnt say out of shape I said worse shape than the fedor fight ......and he is imo

[MMA_scientist]

hmm I believe betting more for success then value is leaving a lot of money on the table.

a trade I am willing to make to make sure I stay in the game. I don't really believe that I can quantify the edge to a precise enough degree to make confident bets on a kelly style system.

Full Kelly is WAY too volatile, you will wipe out your bankroll pretty quick. But yeah, I should bet more on fights with a lot of value, but I don't like bankroll swings. It is what it is... I know my problems, and I try to play away from my weaknesses.

[flyinggogoplata]

full kelly is bankroll suicide. I could see doing quarter kelly... but I don't bet that way. I bet more when I think the likelyhood of success is greater.

hmm I believe betting more for success then value is leaving a lot of money on the table.

[poopoo333]

This is out of shape Werdum:

[edman5555]

i go 18.2% kelly and 2.5% martin short system.

[MMA_scientist]

Well scientist kelly criterion says bet the percentage of your bankroll that's equal to your edge. Full kelly is aggressive but it's mathematically the best bank roll management system.

full kelly is bankroll suicide. I could see doing quarter kelly... but I don't bet that way. I bet more when I think the likelyhood of success is greater.