Strikeforce Dallas June 18th

[MMA_scientist]

Just look at the stone cold stats of the fight. Werdum has been stopped once. Overeem has gone 1-3 in decisions. And of his fights that have gone past the 1st round, he is 3-5. Most of Overeem's wins are actually by submission, not KO. He is probably ot going to be submitting Werdum. Overeem fades and Werdum is hard to stop. Overeem is 1-6 against bjj blackbelts, beating only Belfort, a MW. On his current win streak, he has not fought a single grappler (well Fujita, but cmon).

All that said, maybe the horsemeat really did make Overeem that much better. I just think the odds are with Werdum.

[flyinggogoplata]

Well scientist kelly criterion says bet the percentage of your bankroll that's equal to your edge. Full kelly is aggressive but it's mathematically the best bank roll management system.

[poopoo333]

Whatever, lock of the night is Griggs anyways

[MMA_scientist]

^^I'm not offended at all. I think Overeem is way overpriced and I only want him to win because he is jacked and black. And I was saying go big on Werdum because if he is +300 and you REALLY think he should be favored...that's a crazy deal


And I knew that came out from you due to the gi.

I do think it is a crazy good deal, even if I think he should be the dog, I don't think he should be that much of a dog... I mean, Werdum already beat him once, and he is coming off back to back wins over the best HW to ever live and a top 10 guy in Bigfoot. The line is just stupid. I really do want to go big because I think there is a ton of value... but I don't want to risk a lot on a fight that could really go either way IMO (even though I am still favoring Werdum, I acknowledge that Reem could easily crumble him).

[poopoo333]

^^I'm not offended at all. I think Overeem is way overpriced and I only want him to win because he is jacked and black. And I was saying go big on Werdum because if he is +300 and you REALLY think he should be favored...that's a crazy deal


And I knew that came out from you due to the gi.

[MMA_scientist]

bol at luke's sig, I just noticed that.

[MMA_scientist]

Scientist...go big on Werdum. I dare you.

I am just stating the case as I see it. Don't be offended. I just think the line is way off. I will probably be eating shit Sunday morning.

Truth be told, I am just excited because Werdum wore his gi at the weigh in.

[MMA_scientist]

Yeah, Overeem has a pretty good ground game. But remember that fight was in Japan... where you can actually win a fight from your back on the cards. Overeem was shooting for the takedowns and Werdum was willingly going down. Had Werdum been on top, it probably would have been significantly different. This time, I expect Werdum to be looking for a takedown and Overeem looking to sprawl. Overeem has never shown great takedown defense in the past... but it has been a while since someone tried to take him down since he has been fighting specially designated striking only cans.

[poopoo333]

Scientist...go big on Werdum. I dare you.

[edman5555]

I didn't watch the first fight but I have heard that Overeem was in WErdums guard for a long time before getting submitted. There is a good chance that Werdum is not in line for an insta sub if this goes to the ground. Frankly I think Reem will do everything he can to keep it standing. Beyond that, I don't think Overeem is that easy to take down. Werdum has a tough road if he is looking to control him or submit him...

[Luke]

Overeem is a can crusher, nothing more.

Well yeah ,but remember Werdum's striking is so bad he probably couldn't crush a can if he hit it with his hardest punch . . . . . so. . . . .

[MMA_scientist]

I think I'd be bailing instead of adding,Werdum looks to be in worse shape than in his fight with Fedor .You're not concerned he's 8 pounds heavier ?

not really. He weighs the exact same amount he weighed when he beat Bigfoot. Bottom line, I just think Werdum is a better fighter and will find a way to get it done.

I don't expect him to just blow through him, I was favoring Overeem maybe 55/45, now I am the other way, favoring Werdum 55/45 to get that takedown before Overeem can land the shot.

[Mr. IWS]

Real talk, I wouldnt be suprised if Reem fades during the 2nd half of the fight and gets tapped or loses a decision. That cat hasnt fought ANYONE over the last few years.

[flyinggogoplata]

Overeem is a can crusher, nothing more.

[Luke]

thinking about adding more on Werdum. Overeem is about to get dominated.

I think I'd be bailing instead of adding,Werdum looks to be in worse shape than in his fight with Fedor .You're not concerned he's 8 pounds heavier ?