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Even if nog can get Schaub down, I would not be suprised if he cannot easily sub him. I think he could have to get into pretty good position to hold him down too. Schaub is a big powerful guy that can probably just stand up if he wants to.1 unit = 300 $Comment
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Yeah, Nog was able to drag Herring down a lot @ UFC 73 and couldn't sub him. But then again Herring has only been subbed twice (once by Nog) in his 1,000 fights.Comment
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I think Schaub may be able to get up some right off the takedown. But if he gets taken down and put into an inferior position, he won't be able to get up. It really depends how he gets down there and in what position. But yeah, Schaub is going to win, which pains me greatly.2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5uComment
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exactly what i was thinking about the takedown. If nog gets his back or mount, Schaub is probably fucked. Anything else and he will be able to power up IMO.1 unit = 300 $Comment
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I am gonna end up betting big on Schaub. If Brazil has a good night and Nog and Shogun win, I am going to have a shitty night.Comment
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That is my main issue. These overseas card are always full of surprises. Abu Dhabi, Australia, and the first UK card were all horrible for me. I am not betting against Nog, especially in Brazil. I am not betting against Anderson either, even though Okami has the right tools and line. You think Americans are bad when they chant USA, Brazilians are fucking crazy. They will fist fight you if you talk bad about Brazil, and many of them won't even pick against another Brazilian. I have to assume that the guys fighting will die in that cage before they lose to an American in Brazil.2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5uComment
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Yeah Brazilians are pretty crazy. I assume they will be flying judges and refs in though. Big Nog is a lot more experienced than Schaub as well, and yes your right, he will fight to the death in this one. I won't be bet Schaub. His line is kinda crazy as is. -200? I am not willing to pay that. For all we know, Nog could show up looking better than he has in years. He is having a lot of surgeries to correct past problems..IF it is a big success it could show in his performance..All the pics of him with a belly might not even matter. When are those from? A few weeks ago? He could be in decent enough shape by fight time. Tough one to call. No bet.1 unit = 300 $Comment
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Another thing is that JDS said Big Nog is coming back too soon. Well, besides the other factors that have been brought up already, we forgot to mention ring rust. Nog hasn't fought since February 2010. Rashad kind of disproved ring rust but that was a rare occasion, at least he has been training for the majority of his layoff. Nog has been getting hip surgeries 60 year olds get.Comment
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yeah that is a good point. He will probably lose. Kind of stupid to fight IMO. He could just wait until the next Brazil card. Instead he will opt to get his ass kicked on tv.1 unit = 300 $Comment
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Yeah, I have little hope for Nog here. Even Nog is going to be unable to will himself to victory at some point, regardless of the stakes. But I am not going to bet it.
The only hitch is if Nog is just a better striker than Schaub. He hasn't looked it lately, but maybe there really was something wrong with him for Mir and Cain. In between those, he did outbox Randy.Last edited by MMA_scientist; 08-10-2011, 10:30 AM.2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5uComment
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Yeah that crossed my mind as well. It is kind of hard to rationalize a bet on either one of them.1 unit = 300 $Comment
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He was also visibly faster than Randy. That played into it alot since Randy looked like a walking corpse in that fight and it sent him packing to 205. He won't be the faster fighter here against Schaub.2013: +8.24u(increased unit size on 5/19)
Favorites: 20-6 + 6.13u
Underdogs: 10-19 -2.51u
Ludo's Locks Parlay Project: +1.4u
2012: +20.311uComment
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if you are buried I sugest looking really closely at the Sheub fight. I'm thinking of hocking my car and going balls deep on CHeab here.Comment
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