UFC 134 Rio de Janeiro Aug 27th

[poopoo333]

I got Barboza @ -185. I think the current line sucks though. I think Pearson's only way to win is by decision, so @ +400 something I can always hedge my bet with Pearson by decision. I really think Barboza can sway the judges with his flashy kicks like he did with this to seal the 3rd round against Njokuani:



Njokuani proved in that fight that he is a legit striker in MMA, as well as literally fucking Andre Winner in the ass @ UFC 132. That made Barboza's win that much better, especially with his injuries.

Okami's offensive wrestling might be overrated from the Marquardt fight, Marquardt actually out wrestled Okami in that fight imo. Marquardt ended up on his back from losing position and going for guillotines. I think Okami is going to try and "take the fight" to Silva and possibly get in his face like Sonnen did with some big straight punches like he threw against Linhares and against Marquardt in the 3rd round of that fight. That being said...Silva should win.
This card is either going to be great for me or I will crash and burn.

David Mitchell showed some great defensive grappling against Waldburger. That fight is awesome, it is one of my favorite fights, it was really entertaining. Paulo Thiago is good, but imo he was WAY overrated after beating Swick. He was like -500 against Kampmann and got dominated in the grappling department. I think Thiago will win, but I wouldn't bet it because that shit is gonna be worse than -400.

Svino...Why Nedkov? I originally (and still do) think Cane should win but I may be basing that too much off of his fight with Eliot Marshall.

Everybody knows my thoughts on Forrest Griffin/Shogun Rua and nobody agrees with me but it's ok.

Everybody also knows my thoughts on Schaub/Big Nog

Tavares > Fisher imo, but it will be close. Tavares has the better hands, T3D, grappling, etc.

Yves Jabouin was overvalued @ UFC 129 because of that war with Mark Hominick in his last fight, I am hoping he is overvalued here again as well. Loveland looked real good against Benavidez.

I think Palhares will get tired and Miller will avoid subs and be on top and grind out the decision if he doesn't get subbed early.

As for the 3 other fights consisting of Brazilians I know nothing about (besides Assuncao).....no thoughts

[edman5555]

I also thinking Dan Miller might be a good bet. He will probably be a dog too.

so bets so far are most likely:

Paulo Thiago
Yuri Alcantra
Edson Barboza
Thiago Tavares
Dan miller

[edman5555]

So ranking bets here, Paulo thiago is probably the best bet..

yuri Alcantra looks pretty good. His opponent is Felipe Arantes. I would think he is going to steamroll this guy. Arantes record is filled with a lot of cans. Quite a few guys with losing records or less than a couple of fights. He is also a replacement for the replacement for mackens semez. I will add Alcantra to my bets.

[edman5555]

David Mitchell is a purple belt in brazilian jiu jitsu under Dave Terrell. I don't think he should stand much of a chance against Paulo Thiago.

[edman5555]

pearson did outstruck silver because silver is an outside striker. pearson closed the gap and bullied silver. he doesnt have finishing power though. against barboza, he will get picked apart whether its outside or inside striking. barboza is very fast very explosive and very strong. pearson will get a beating in this one.

Yeah good point. He was striking inside with winner too. That will work very poorly against Barboza.

[edman5555]

Ok nvrmind. Read the play by play. It looks liek Pearson outstruck Siver. He also did well striking against Winner. The Winner-Pearson fight had a lot of clinching up against the cage walls as well. It was really close there, nobody had a big edge in that part. Winner is actually good at that though. Lentz had him up against the wall for the entire fight and could not get him down. On the other hand, Winner could not get away from him but thats not bad for a brit. Tough call. I still have to favor Barboza in this one but I am not sure by how much..

[mike]

pearson did outstruck silver because silver is an outside striker. pearson closed the gap and bullied silver. he doesnt have finishing power though. against barboza, he will get picked apart whether its outside or inside striking. barboza is very fast very explosive and very strong. pearson will get a beating in this one.

[edman5555]

Yeah I didnt think about it until a second ago but Sivers attacks are much better at range. Barboza is probably a real killer in any type of clinch situation. If pearson tries any type of wrestling it is going to have to be a shot. If he tries to clinch and push up against the fence he should most likely get kneed to fucking hell? Wouldn't you think?

Scratch some of what I said, I just re read the Siver-Pearson play by play and it actually sounds like Pearson outstruck him.

[Svino]

This article talks about how Barbozas leg and hand were injured before his fight with Anthony. http://www.sherdog.com/news/news/Man...-UFC-128-30974

Ah, OK. That is interesting.

[edman5555]

Should Pearson really be +240 to Barboza? I'm thinking I should be a little more impressed with his win over Siver than I used to be, given how Siver has looked since then.

As for Barboza, I'm not sure he deserved that win over Njokuani.

I think Pearson spent a lot of that fight pushing Siver up against the cage. I don't know how good Pearsons actual takedowns are though, or how good Barbozas takedown D is. One thing I can say about the difference between those two fights is this. Siver is a kickboxer who doesn't use knees a lot, he excels more at range. Barboza will knee the fuck out of Pearson if he tries to perform a clinch fest.

[edman5555]

Barbozas line is just getting worse and worse though.

[edman5555]

Yeah I am on the same page as you. I could see Pearson winning. Supposedly Barboza was injured for the Njokuani fight. Ross is a bit more experienced in MMA but Barboza has a lot of MT exp. It is hard to say who has the exp advantage. Pearson turned pro in 2004 but didnt have his second pro fight until september of 2007. He has had 16 pro fights. That is a little under 4 years of experience in MMA. Barboza started in April 2009, this is about 2 years 3 months, about half the mma exp. Pearson does have a lot more exp fighting against good MMA fighters though.

This article talks about how Barbozas leg and hand were injured before his fight with Anthony. http://www.sherdog.com/news/news/Man...-UFC-128-30974

Pearson barely beat Fischer, his fight with Winner was close and so was his fight with Siver. Barboza will probably kill him. I don't think Barboza will be easy to push around the cage. He is physically very strong and his knees should make that difficult..

[Svino]

Should Pearson really be +240 to Barboza? I'm thinking I should be a little more impressed with his win over Siver than I used to be, given how Siver has looked since then.

As for Barboza, I'm not sure he deserved that win over Njokuani.

[SPX]

If Tavares is -180 then I will definitely be betting Fisher.

[MMA_scientist]

My guess is -180