BJ Penn Vs Nick Diaz - UFC 137

[poopoo333]

jorgensen, vera, askren, not cc by sub, not roop by sub pays out at about even odds in case anyone was interested.

That's a good one... I think I will play that

[Vandelay]

jorgensen, vera, askren, not cc by sub, not roop by sub pays out at about even odds in case anyone was interested.

[Ludo]

That's some crazy ass shit. Marshall has some quality wins.

Like that moral victory in lasting so long against Cane.

[Ludo]

Jorgensen has always been overrated in my view, a supposed 'world class' wrestler who fell for the same kneetap a million times against Cruz. I understand Cruz is arguably the best wrestler in the division but you can tell the difference in wrestling skill between him and DJ because DJ made Cruz work for it constantly with different tries while Jorgensen couldn't figure out the kneetap to save his life.

I wouldn't overthink the kneetap thing with Cruz. He gets it at least once on everyone, he even got Faber down with it a time or two. Fact is Jorgensen wasn't ready for that title shot and Cruz mixes things up so well that the same knee tap works because of how he wades in for strikes. It's hard to react to it as opposed to a jab or a four strike combo. While Johnson may have been better against the kneetap he couldn't defend the single to save his life. I don't know that I would chalk it up so much to a great difference in wrestling skill as I would a difference in speed between Jorgensen and Johnson.

[Luke]

Marshall has some quality wins.

...........................................

[Luke]

GodDAMN!

Vera -450?

And here I was hoping to get him at under -200. . .

negged for even thinking about betting that bum

[MMA_scientist]

I don't think Curran has a clear path to victory. I expect Scotty to force a standup fight and shoot a few takedowns near the end of the round to win a decision. Curran has won a couple of fights against no-names, but the fact that he has gone to a decision in all of those fights doesn't bode well for him here. I don't think he can win a decision unless he just surprises Jorg with massively improved wrestling.

[SPX]

Well . . . welcome, MMABuddha.

Thanks for that write-up.

And I agree with you. I was hoping to get Jorgensen at -300 or better. I won't take him at his current line.

[MMABuddha]

I am overseas and unfortunately don't have registration access to a sportsbook right now, but I would highly suggest that anyone with an interest in taking advantage of live dogs look at the Curran line. Jorgensen has always been overrated in my view, a supposed 'world class' wrestler who fell for the same kneetap a million times against Cruz. I understand Cruz is arguably the best wrestler in the division but you can tell the difference in wrestling skill between him and DJ because DJ made Cruz work for it constantly with different tries while Jorgensen couldn't figure out the kneetap to save his life. In addition to that he is not the best striker either, don't forget that Ken Stone was whooping him pretty badly before he got caught with the guard punch from hell.

I understand Curran may be shopworn (I haven't seen the Goldsby fight) and Jorgensen's preferred method of victory coincides with Curran's most likely way to lose (a grinding wrestled-out decision) but I can see Curran catching him in something before the fight ends. He's very durable as well so maybe an 'over' bet is a good option. He's also going to be very motivated by the fact that he has not been in the UFC for awhile and knows that this may be his last chance.

I still think Curran should lose but not nearly at the same percentage as the oddsmakers do. For that I think it may be worth playing that edge.

[SPX]

That's some crazy ass shit. Marshall has some quality wins.

[poopoo333]

GodDAMN!

Vera -450?

And here I was hoping to get him at under -200. . .

He opened @-550

[Ludo]

I have always wanted to see Thiago Alves/BJ

you already saw that when we played Undisputed 2010. Alves got knocked the fuck out.

[SPX]

GodDAMN!

Vera -450?

And here I was hoping to get him at under -200. . .

[Vandelay]

odds out on 5dimes

[Vandelay]

should be about a day before the lines come out on 5dimes. I do think jorgensen line will go up.