BJ Penn Vs Nick Diaz - UFC 137

[MMA_scientist]

I have no doubt BJ can get Nick down. I have my doubts as to whether he can take his back though. Nick is solid on the ground, I doubt BJ subs him... but yeah, it could happen. I don't think anyone had subbed Florian before BJ either. It would have to be around +1500 for me, I don't think he would sub him more than one out of 15 fights...

[edman5555]

ah really? Is Nick really that good on the ground? Why do you think so? I know he has subbed some guys and all that but I figured some of it was hype.

[MMA_scientist]

I don't think he is as good of a grappler as BJ by any means. But you have to be considerably better than someone to get a dominant position and hold it long enough to submit them. BJ really doesn't pull out submissions from bottom. He has very strong guard passing though. Nick is squirmy, and he plays guard, which means BJ would have to pass, mount, and get Nick to turn his back on him. I don't think Nick will ever show his back. I don't think I have seen nick trying to stand up. I think BJ may run the "score" up on him by passing his guard, but I think Nick will be able to survive. Just my opinion, I could definitely be wrong. BJ's grappling is slightly overrated IMO. I know he is a world champion, but that was a different time.

[edman5555]

you think the game has progressed since then?

[MMA_scientist]

you think the game has progressed since then?

Yeah. I mean, you have the same stuff now that you had then, but there are more people competing, and the stakes are higher. So the competitions are tougher. It is like being an MMA champion in 2000 as opposed to today. Both sports are still growing, so pretty much every year, the competition is going to keep getting tougher, until the participation and stakes level out like more established combat sports (boxing, wrestling, judo- I have no doubts that some of the guys from older generations would kill the new guys). In the more established sports, you can truly have conversations about who would win in their primes- Ali or Tyson, Sanderson or Gable... In bjj and MMA, whoever is the champ now is pretty much the greatest ever IMO.

[edman5555]

yeah that is what i thought you would say. It still is impressive that he did it at 20 years old though. that is pretty uncommon. He is like a wrecking ball on the ground though.

[Vandelay]

A wrecking ball that couldnt keep fitch's back twice. he's nothing special off his back and wont sub you from there. Only threat off his back is the sweep.

[edman5555]

yeah but how many guys take jon fitchs back?

[poopoo333]

Pretty surprised Kongo is at even money. I figured the line would be like -150 for Kongo

[edman5555]

i will be all over kongo. he is superior in every way.

[edman5555]

mitrione is basically a striker. that is is predominant skill. Kongo is a former kickboxer turned mma fighter that uses mainly striking but also has a good wrestling base(he trained greco for a long time). His wrestling is not world class but it should be better than Mitriones..Also he has much more experience.

[MMA_scientist]

I don't mean to say BJ is not good. Sometimes I think we overestimate how much better the newer guys are. I mean Saulo came back in ADCC 2009 and took 3rd, and he is like 40. George Foreman came back and became HW champion when he was like 100. If BJ went back to training sport grappling, he would probably be competitive and maybe even win. But BJ is an anamoly, he is still one of the best fighters on the planet IMO, and probably the most naturally gifted fighter to ever compete in MMA. I do think he will beat Nick, and I think he would smoke him in a grappling match... on points. No shame in that though.

[Ludo]

A wrecking ball that couldnt keep fitch's back twice. he's nothing special off his back and wont sub you from there. Only threat off his back is the sweep.

Who's the last guy who even took Fitch's back, let alone twice in two consecutive rounds? Just because Fitch is a very good hand fighter(meaning hand and wrist control on the ground) doesn't mean a guy who takes his back twice in a row and can't lock the choke in is somehow a lesser grappler.

[Vandelay]

Well the way people talk up bj's grappling, you would think if he gets on top of you and builds a base he would be able to keep it. Im pretty sure maia, jacare, roger, werdum, etc. wouldnt have lost back control with hooks in once, let alone twice.

[sideloaded]

Yeah, all the best fighters in the world are 3-3-1 in their last seven fights. Why are we even talking about how bj would do in a grappling match against Diaz? Diaz is going to house him in a mma fight, thats all that matters. Only way BJ wins is if he straight melts Diaz in the first round. By the middle of the second Bj will be looking for a way out of the cage.