UFN 25: Battle on the Bayou 9/17

[edman5555]

wow benoist is beating riddles ass

[poopoo333]

Prelims start on Facebook in 4 minutes

[MMA_scientist]

Koch is pretty good off his back. Hes alot like pettis. Id rather put not brookins by sub.

Yeah, that is definitely the most risky one of the bunch, it is -1000 or so though... so without it, the aother 3 would be like -1200

[Vandelay]

Koch is pretty good off his back. Hes alot like pettis. Id rather put not brookins by sub.

[poopoo333]

^^already looked at it. I like it.

[MMA_scientist]

Speaking of, that 'not ellenberger by sub" prop is all teh way back down to -5100. I put it in my 2011 parlay.

What do you guys think about

"not ellenberger/yang/Koch/Belcher" by submission? It comes in -400.

It definitely is not a lock, but what do you think about it at -400?

[MMA_scientist]

Yeah, even I won't touch -17000. I think the steepest one I have done is -8400 and it was art of a 5 part parlay.

Anyway, thanks for the responses.

[Svino]

ok, so I am ramping it up now.

What you nerds are saying is that the steeper the favorite, the less "room" there is to find value. And is certainly not worth 3x as much to gain a few extra percentage points...

With that, why does tha magic parlay keep working so well?

Assuming the books keep letting me get away with this, tell me what I am doing wrong. Because I glean from your posts that the value can't really be there, it is going to be much more difficult to find value in a 3% window than a 20% window.

It is a true a magic formula right?

I don't think anything is wrong; I think there's legit value there. People definitely overestimate the frequency of submissions (and underestimate decisions), especially in high level fights, and I think the situation is likely to continue to tilt. In terms of finding value, I don't see 2%-3% as that bad (in the earlier post, it was the line of -17000 that I said I wouldn't touch). A few percent is still high enough that you can look at past similar fights and have enough of a sample size to reasonably say "I think there's less than 3% of a sub".

[Thewisemann]

Thinkin about parlaying Shields, Koch and Dunham.

[MMA_scientist]

Oh and bol at breadcrumbs

[MMA_scientist]

Ludo, it makes sense to me. i am up for the day and halfway to louisville...1st phone post...i dont need a sleep aid. i like it. prob not great day for 8 ours on the road tho

[Ludo]

I thought you said you felt fine? Half of that last post came off as total scatterbrain gibberish. Breadcrumbs.

But seriously take some sleep aids to help. I have had life long sleeping problems to the point I have to take something nightly in order not to be up for 3 days at a clip. I doubt you need anything prescription grade but you can get diphenhydramine tablets at any drug store which will probably help. Essentially it's Tylenol PM without the tylenol.

[MMA_scientist]

ok, so I am ramping it up now.

What you nerds are saying is that the steeper the favorite, the less "room" there is to find value. And is certainly not worth 3x as much to gain a few extra percentage points...

With that, why does tha magic parlay keep working so well?

Assume -3000 for every line (I think it is more like -2500 on average though). So I make 5 30:1 bets on each card in a 5u parlay. So it is just under 6:1 for the card (just rounding stuff to make it easy for me).

Assume that I win 120 of these in a row (which is pretty close to the reality). That is not that big of a deal I understand... It is about the same as winning 4 even money bets in a row right? Still, at -600, I have made 20u this way (in my hypo, I have not made that much in reality).

(Everyone keeps saying "well, you are going to lose eventually." Yeah. I realize that. That is why I only bet 5u and not my entire bankroll.)

Assuming the books keep letting me get away with this, tell me what I am doing wrong. Because I glean from your posts that the value can't really be there, it is going to be much more difficult to find value in a 3% window than a 20% window.

It is a true a magic formula right? Or is it too early to tell, like I am asking you about an edge after making 4 bets...

Or should I learn how to cap fights again.



Again, sorry for not knowing how to ask the right questions... just use your math super powers to divine what I am asking.

[MMA_scientist]

I have insomnia. I have been up until 4am the last 3 nights. And then up for the day at around 6.


I think I have narrowed it down a figured out that it is stress related. I never get nervous or stressed... like the wolrd can be falling down around me and I will just sit there like nothing is happening. But I think when I feel overwhelmed, I bury it deep in the recesses of my brain and it comes out as insomnia. It has happened to me a few times in my life. When I first started law school, I did not sleep more than 1 or 2 hours per night for probably 4 months. Even now as I sit here, I feel fine, I do not feel even a twinge of stress or nerves... but I think I know I am unprepared for some work stuff deep down. When I was in law school, I used to ride my bike around town and campus at all hours of the night and mid morning. I remember riding my bike like 15 miles to Denny's at 3am one nightm eating and coming back... and I had no idea where the night went the next day. It was like The Mothman Prophecies. Sleep deprivation is kind of awesome tbh.

[Ludo]

I think this is the first time I've seen you here beyond Zak's bedtime, Scientist. Crazy.