UFN 25: Battle on the Bayou 9/17

[MMA_scientist]

You're taking all my glory

lmao. perfect.

Just to put numbers in, if we assume the final odds are correct:

In the first case (-200 to -600), a Kelly bet would be 57% on bankroll and result in an expected growth of 9.9%

Second case (-2000 to -6000), a Kelly bet would be 66%, but would only have an expected growth of 1.4%.

I guess the thing to remember is that apparent similarity in ratio is just misleading because the Moneyline format is an abomination and you should always use decimal odds or percentages when doing anything mathematical or conceptual with odds.

Strangely, that entire post actually makes sense to me.

Regrettably none of my courses were in MMath.

oh my god. A math joke.



Why I am I awake? That is the real issue here.

[Ludo]

Regrettably, none of my courses were in MMAth.

BOL

[Svino]

awesome......when are you going to start on a MMA model so we can all get rich?

Regrettably, none of my courses were in MMAth.

[Luke]

In undergrad, I guess it would be 5 semesters. All of it with an applied (engineering / physics) bent. I never actually took a proper theorem/proof style math course or a statistics course.

awesome......when are you going to start on a MMA model so we can all get rich?

[Svino]

I don't know what the difference is.

Well, applied courses will cover a lot of material, but not necessarily take the time to justify everything formally. The goal is just to give you a lot of mathematical tools to use in solving practical problems.

Courses for math majors spend a lot more time proving every theorem as they go along. High school geometry is taught a little more like this, if you ever did two-column proofs.

[SPX]

I don't know what the difference is.

[Svino]

How much math did you take in college Svino?

In undergrad, I guess it would be 5 semesters. All of it with an applied (engineering / physics) bent. I never actually took a proper theorem/proof style math course or a statistics course.

[Luke]

I hereby officially cede all glory to Vandelay.

How much math did you take in college Svino?

[Svino]

I hereby officially cede all glory to Vandelay.

[Luke]

No one wants your complicated, fancy terms and calculations svino. Your taking all my glory.

[Vandelay]

No one wants your complicated, fancy terms and calculations svino. Your taking all my glory.

[Svino]

Just to put numbers in, if we assume the final odds are correct:

In the first case (-200 to -600), a Kelly bet would be 57% on bankroll and result in an expected growth of 9.9%

Second case (-2000 to -6000), a Kelly bet would be 66%, but would only have an expected growth of 1.4%.

I guess the thing to remember is that apparent similarity in ratio is just misleading because the Moneyline format is an abomination and you should always use decimal odds or percentages when doing anything mathematical or conceptual with odds.

[MMA_scientist]

Perfect. That is what I was asking... but could not even create the tought in my mind correctly. It is moments like these that I truly thank god I am so damn good looking, because there is no way I could make it on my brain power.

Now that you have said it, it is as clear as day and I feel stupid for asking. I will jst pull a sideloaded and play it off as a troll.

insert trollface.jpg

[Vandelay]

Your going from a supposed 66.6% chance to win to a 85.7% chance in -200 to -600. From -2000 to -6000 it goes from 95.2 to 98.3. So its about a 19 percent difference in part A to a 3 percent difference in part B. So technically their is a much greater disparity in -200 to -600

[MMA_scientist]

No, I am not talking about that. I really don't know how to ask the question in the right terms since I never made it past algebra...

Basically what I am asking is in terms of "value" is there any difference between a a small favorte going for -200 to -600 and a large favorite going from -2000 to -6000. I mean, if the line goes from -2000 to -6000, and we assuming the final line is correct in both cases, is that the same thing... Sorry I am so retarded that I cannot even frame the question properly...