UFN 25: Battle on the Bayou 9/17

[Svino]

Svino, is there a difference between the line going from -4800 to -17000 and a line going from -200 to -700? I mean obviously the lines are steeper, but assuming I have the patience and bankroll management to wait it out, would there be a difference?

Sorry, I'm afraid I don't understand the question. Are you asking if it's possible for there to be useful value on extremely steep favorites? If so, it does get to the point where you have to question its usefulness, considering that -170000 is only about half a percent return, even given true odds of 100%. And to bet on it, you're trying to determine probabilities to an accuracy of under half a percent, which is plausible if you're stringing a chain of events or something, but seems unlikely for a single fight outcome. So I personally wouldn't touch it.

[MMA_scientist]

Not Ellenberger by sub was -4800 earlier when I said that. Sideloaded tippped them off. That is what I keep saying about these prop lines... sometimes even at -3000 there is value.


Svino, is there a difference between the line going from -4800 to -17000 and a line going from -200 to -700? I mean obviously the lines are steeper, but assuming I have the patience and bankroll management to wait it out, would there be a difference?

[Vandelay]

Props are up for distance of all 4 bouts. and full props up for shields fight. Not ellenberger by sub is ard -17000 and not shields by tko is around -9000

[MMA_scientist]

Yeah, there won't be a magic parlay on this one.

I will probably not Ellenberger to my 2011 parlay though. I doubt we will get a line for Bailey/Dunham props since it is undercard.

[trotterz]

I am pretty confident that Ellenberger won't submit Shields, and that Bailey won't submit Dunham .... but that's about it for the magic parlay as I can see it. and the odds for it would be stupid and not worth it

[Vandelay]

I kinda like Stone in his fight. He looked good against Jorgensen and Walker lost his last fight against houghland. Surprised he even got a second chance. I will admit I dont know much about either fighter tho

[SPX]

Card sucks for betting.

[MMA_scientist]

Bunch of fights that could go either way.

Anyone have any strong feelings about any thing here aside from Rocha and Koch?

[MMA_scientist]

Anyone know anything at all about Yang? Aside from he lost a split to Camozzi? I read the pbp on that, sounds like Court may be able to dictate where the fight goes.

[Vandelay]

thanks for the heads up. I did as well. 165 on rocha.

[SPX]

I thought I read somewhere that pettis came form a TKD background.

Could be. I haven't heard that, but it wouldn't shock me. If true, then I would say yes, you can see some of that influence in the way he fights.

[MMA_scientist]

lines out on 5d.

Rocha is @ -165 there, I went ahead and pulled the trigger on that.

[MMA_scientist]

I thought I read somewhere that pettis came form a TKD background.

[SPX]

I really don't know Pettis's background. It's obvious that he does a lot of crazy shit. I think that may be because Duke Roufus includes some unorthodox shit into his training. I know Pettis gave credit to Roufus for the off-the-cage kick.

As for Al Hassan, I know he comes from a TKD background, but I've only seen him fight like twice, and that was a while back. I'd need to see some more fights to make a determination.

Petrezelli's karate background was very evident in his last fight, but I think that's the first time that I had ever really noticed it. For a lot of these guys, where I really notice it is in the way they kick. For Machida, it's the whole package, but especially the way he moves and how he treats MMA like it's a sport karate competition.

[MMA_scientist]

I think 75% of them got started as a TKD, karate or kung fu guy.

But as for the ones who I think really use it in the cage, that list includes: Machida, Makdessi, Ryan Jimmo.

yeah but this was later in life, not like he started as 7 year old. I think he said he went there to get started on his MMA path, like a few years ago.\

What about Pettis? Al Hassan?