Tweet
It's a toss up when it comes to betting precisely because the outcome is so difficult to predict.
-
I heart cock -
All right smart guy, well who's going to win and how?I heart cockComment
-
DHK/Pierson over 1.5 rds is -155...wtf???Comment
-
I made a large wager on Lesnar at +150. For one, I don't think Lesnar is going to get one-shot KO'd.. he took alot of big shots from Carwin and Cain but was still constantly fighting back or defending. He's got more heart than Overeem and an underrated chin. I think Overeem has gotten a little too comfortable crumbling guys like Rogers and James Thompson (also I re-watched his fight with Todd Duffee the other day, wtf. I remember it being weird, but that fight was fishy as hell)Comment
-
I am starting to feel strongly that Brock will win. I think Mir nailed it, he wil take him down and AO will gas. At the core of it, it is basically a wrestler vs a kickboxer. AO has a good ground game too, but I don't think he can keep up with Brock's pace and top heavy game. We don't where OA head will be or where Brock's health is. Of course, AO could one punch him, but he is not really a precision striker like that, he is more thudding and overwhelming, I don't think he can do it to Brock and I don't think he can stop the TD. If Brocks line creeps up, I may double down.
I bet 2u on it, which I rarely do for underdogs.2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5uComment
-
I give Brock and Hendricks favourable odds to win, moreso than the actual odds. It's always scary to bet against Fitch but I think it's worth it here. Again, here are my analyses of these two fights, I'll try to post more often I'm just not online as much these days:
Jonny Boy vs. Jon Fitch – Upset pick of the night. We all know what Jon Fitch is capable of. Tough as hell, really good grind you down wrestler who gets in your face and breaks your will until the bell rings. Decent striker but nothing special and slower and more hittable than people realize (watch the Mike Pierce fight). Hendricks is a guy whom I think is going to do big things, especially if he drops in weight. Great wrestler, great athlete who is super tough and carries a lot of power despite being a little sloppy on the feet. He hasn’t shown a lot of his skills on the ground but he really hasn’t had to. Fitch isn’t really known for finishing game opponents, so I doubt he has to worry about getting caught.
What worries me is that the way he lost the Story fight is exactly the kind of gameplan that Fitch will employ here. Still, I don’t think Fitch has the aggressive style necessary to pull it off. I think Hendricks fights smart here, keeps him at bay with quick punches on the inside before moving outside. He’s a far more accomplished wrestler and though having a bigger man wear on him on the fence will tire him out I don’t think it will be enough to the point that he loses the fight. He will also be aided by the fact that he won’t be afraid of coming forward and eating Fitch’s punches while throwing a few of his own because he’ll know that he can take them. I think he has the wrestling knowledge required to deal with the grind and he will use superior boxing for a close decision win.
Lesnar vs. Overeem - Overeem finally gets to fight in the UFC so we get to know if all the “Ubereem” stuff is for real or not. I’ll say that I don’t think it is. He’s a great fighter, but here’s a list of the fighters he’s beaten on his 10 fight winning streak:
Werdum
Duffee
Rogers
Fujita
James Thompson
Tony Sylvester
GARY GOODRIDGE IN 2008!
Hunt
Lee Tae Who?
Paul Buentello
Just before that he got KO’ed by Sergei Kharitanov. I don’t understand the hype for ‘the best striker in the heavyweight division’ title. JDS would starch him on the feet, and Velasquez probably could too though he’d be smart enough probably to drag a single leg to the ground and beat on him for awhile. But I digress. Overeem is probably the most overrated fighter on the planet at the moment. He has one good MMA win against Werdum in the past three years and he looked really bad in that fight. Werdum admittedly is a tricky guy to fight, mainly because he doesn’t really try to fight and retreats a lot. If he was as good a striker as is claimed Overeem would have done a far better job of smacking him around, but in all honesty Werdum didn’t really look out of place on the feet in that fight. He has good kicks and a decent clinch, but if he tries to clinch up with Brock he’s going to get dumped on his head. He carries his hands like a novice and isn’t loose at all with his punches. He throws combinations but there doesn’t seem to be any real purpose behind why. He just throws them without any kind of setup.
We all know what Brock is good at, and what he’s not good at. He still doesn’t like getting hit, he will never throw a kick and his punches are gorilla-like, meaning not smooth. Still, he has power and can take a punch, and can still take a guy down in the middle of taking a beating. I also think he’s finally healthy and cleared of all his diverticulitis issues that have plagued him. But that aside, he still has one of the best power doubles in the sport as well as a very underrated BJJ game. It’s quite well-known in gym circles that he moves ridiculously well on the ground and is impossible to submit while submitting plenty of tough submission guys. He is a superb athlete with a never-ending gas tank.
Overeem has shown issues with cardio at LHW in the past, how do you think that will be affected by him carrying all that new weight AND having a monster grappler like Lesnar constantly applying pressure? Lesnar is not a lay and pray guy either, he fights to hurt you at all times. I don’t see Overeem being able to stop a takedown, and I don’t see him having the power to finish Brock either. As the fight goes on he’ll lose that power, and that double leg will come easier for Brock. He has a great sprawl, but Brock will press the fight and wear him. Overeem has also shown a tendency to mentally quit in fights where things aren’t going his way, on the biggest stage against a monster like Brock I don’t see that changing. He doesn’t react well to being pushed and tested.
Don’t let the critics fool you, Overeem is not even close to being the best striker in the MMA heavyweight division. K-1 ain’t what it used to be. Getting KO’ed by Sergei is not something world class strikers have happen to them. Brock gets in a little bit of trouble but never anything close to like what he experienced against Carwin, then he works for a takedown and after that we will witness a beatdown. He will break him, take him down at will and beat on him until the ref decides enough is enough. I’m shocked that the odds are what they are but Overeem is overrated to all hell right now. Obviously knocking out Brock is still within the realm of possibility, he’s not the best but he’s far from the worst striker, while Brock is pretty close to being one of the worst strikers. Still, I don’t think it will happen. Brock by TKO near the end of Round 2.Follow me on Twitter: @MMABuddhaComment
-
^^ Pretty much agree with everything you wrote there. I think the Hendricks/Fitch fight will be very close, I just don't know if Future Champ will fight smart enough to pull it out, but there is definite value IMO, especially considering that Fitch's camp just broke up (Dave Camarillo is no longer head instructor), and he is coming off of rotator cuff surgery. Dealing with a rotator cuff issue myself, I can tell you that it never really comes all the way back and he was probably out of training for 6 months.
Screw it, I am betting Johny here.2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5uComment
-
I think Brock (T)KO +170 is a good bet as wellComment
-
Comment
Comment