UFC 142

[Luke]

The flaw is that in order to win one, you would lose the other. So you would put $50 on both, so even though you would win $133 @ +266, you have to subtract out the $50 you will necessarily lose on your other bet, leaving you with a total take of only $83. You would be better off betting @ -110 and winning $90

And if you had the misfortune of winning a $50 bet @ +220, you would "win" $110, and then lose your other $50 bet, to take only $60.

So the average of the two lines is really $100 to win $71.50, a line of -140

Correct.

You also win nothing when Belfort TKO's Johnson

[Luke]

By looking at the current odds and props, I noticed something which doesn't make sens

Johnson line is -110 right now ...If I bet 100$ and he wins, I get 90.91

By looking at the props,
Johnson by 3 round dec is at +266
Johnson Inside the distance is at +220

So in fact, if someone wants to play on Johnson, he get more money by playing 50$ on johnson by Dec (@ +266 to win 133) and 50$ on johnson ITD (@ +220 to win 110) instead of playing only johnson to win line

By playing on both props(50/50), you get odds of minimum +110 if johnson wins ITD and +133 if he wins by Decision.

I just noticed that for johnson, but I am defenetely going to look further on that matter when I will want to play single bets as of now.

As I already said in previous posts, I am french, not english, so if you have some dificulty to understand my explanations in my post, let me know and I will try to give better explainations.

Even though the odds arent quite right I have done this before . It worked out quite well in the Khan-Judah fight. Khan was close to -130 to win inside the distance but I was able to bet :

1 to win 2.42 +242 Khan wins in rd 1-6
.75 to win 2.6 +347 Khan wins in rd 7-12

To actually give me plus odds on this outcome happening .You just need to keep an eye out for good odds.

[Thewisemann]

Anyone see value in Omigawa +170? What about Gonzaga -125?

[mike]

I like Gonzaga bc the other guy carries his hands pretty low and hasnt fought anyone good. But he's very active so he might overwhelm Gonzaga, Diaz style. I put 3u on Gonzaga though and 6u on Alcantara. WTH, I am going big on the first event in 2012. If I lose these bets, I basically lose all my 2011 winnings LOL. Oh well.. I'm probably gonna put 2u on Vitor also. I got greedy..

[Ludo]

Anyone see value in Omigawa +170? What about Gonzaga -125?

My concern with Omigawa is Alcantara is a total striking beast if I remember right. He might just beat the shit out of Omigawa standing and create enough distance with the thip to avoid takedown attempts.

[Luke]

Gonzaga should easily handle Oliveria but I made a rule a long time ago to never bet on Gonzaga...............Vera and Jardine are also on this list.

[edman5555]

I don't know much about Gonzales opponent...btw I am a good gambler turned stupid drunk.. But -125 doesn't sound bad for a mundials champ with ko power.


Also wise am I was thinking the same thing about omigawa but lido might have a point.

[MMA_scientist]

Gonzaga is not a Mundials champ.

[BIGDAY]

Have a parlay that I put in a while ago that has a decent chance at hitting. Aldo by TKO/KO +315 & Rumble by TKO/KO +325 to pay around +1650.

Just a .25 of a unit but I thought it would be worth the odds. I probably will put a unit on Mendes as well. Not going to be a big card for me at all.

GL

[poopoo333]

I'm starting to come around on putting Palhares in a parlay. But it's so iffy with that fucker

[MMA_scientist]

I'm starting to come around on putting Palhares in a parlay. But it's so iffy with that fucker

I went ahead and dropped a bet on Palhares/Pyle/Silva and hedged with Prater by sub. I am actually more worried about Pyle than Palhares. Palhares is better than Massenzio in every aspect IMO. Plus it is in Palhares's backyard. I mean, how is Massenzio going to beat him? Maaybe by a top control decision... but I doubt that and it is definitely less that 20% IMO.

[BIGDAY]

Palhares by dec is a decent prop wager imo at +300 or better.

[poopoo333]

I went ahead and dropped a bet on Palhares/Pyle/Silva and hedged with Prater by sub. I am actually more worried about Pyle than Palhares. Palhares is better than Massenzio in every aspect IMO. Plus it is in Palhares's backyard. I mean, how is Massenzio going to beat him? Maaybe by a top control decision... but I doubt that and it is definitely less that 20% IMO.

Yeah, it's just in the back of my mind that Palhares may gas and Massenzio will be able to blast him on the feet, he was connecting soo easily against Cantwell with his combos. I am worried about Pyle the most too, I hedged with Funch SOTN. But before the MacDonald fight Pyle was doing well/was reinventing himself. It depends on how he bounces back. But I think Pyle is just a level above Funch.

I am not too confident in tomorrow night. In fact, there are actually no upcoming cards that I actually love for betting.

[SPX]

I'm starting to come around on putting Palhares in a parlay. But it's so iffy with that fucker

I actually went ahead and took him straight. Can you really imagine Massenzio beating him?

[AC88]

Palhares by takedown, top control and sub. If that doesn't happen, Palhares by takedown, top control and GNP to a 30-26. I can't see what Massenzio is going to do to Palhares to put him in any danger unless it's on the feet.