1-14-12

[Mr. IWS]

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[Mr. IWS]

spartan | NFL Side

110 SFX 3.5 (-110) Hilton vs 109 NOS

Triple dime bet



spartan | NFL Side

111 DEN 13.5 (-110) Hilton vs 112 NEP

[Mr. IWS]

DOUBLE DRAGON NFL DIVISIONAL ROUND (5-0 Wildcard Round)

SAINTS -3 (-125) at 49'ers
BRONCOS +14 (-120) at patriots
RAVENS -7 (-130) vs texans
GIANTS +10 (-140) at packers

[Mr. IWS]

Sports Wagers Saturday

SAN FRANCISCO +4 over New Orleans SportsInteraction
We realize how easy it is to like the Saints here. Why wouldn’t you? They are an offensive machine, they're hot and they’ve been down this road in recent times. At the all important quarterback position, New Orleans’ Drew Brees lays over San Francisco’s Alex Smith. However, life in the NFL is rarely that simple. There are issues on the Saints side that cannot be conveniently overlooked, namely on defence. The Saints struggled against the run early in the season, surrendering more than 100 yards eight times through 10 games. That was prior to New Orleans going into their high-octane scoring when teams hardly could run the ball in an attempt to play catch up. The Niners will not abandon their ground game. It’s their bread and butter and it has proven effective. Quietly, San Francisco finished 11th in scoring, ahead of teams like the Ravens and Cowboys. If need be, the 49ers can do some damage through the air. Smith was proficient with a league-low five interceptions and having seen Calvin Johnson’s 211 yards receiving last week, the 49ers could have success throwing to WR Michael Crabtree. The 49ers have a huge edge defensively, having surrendered just 229 points on the season compared to the Saints’ 339. This marks only the second time since 1982 that the road team has been favored in the Divisional round of the NFL playoffs. That’s because the home team has usually earned the right to host and therefore should not be in the underdog’s role. While the Saints might be the sexy pick, the Niners are the prudent play and that’s the side we’ll endorse. Play San Francisco +4 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
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NEW ENGLAND -13½ over Denver Pinnacle
Those Broncos. What a cheeky group they are. Win six. Drop three. Back their way into the playoffs. Upset the Steelers. So now what? Travel to Foxboro and knock of the top seeded Patriots? News flash; it ain’t happenin’. While the Tim Tebow hysteria has been fun for most, it’s a joke to others. Granted, the youngster had an impressive game last week but don’t expect that lightning in a bottle to strike again here. The Patriots are not the imposters that the Steelers turned out to be. They have an elite quarterback and an elite coach. They’ve had the luxury of experiencing the Tebow phenomenon first hand, resulting in a 41-23 victory that took place in Denver. A quick review of that one had New England arriving in Denver to face a streaking Broncos bunch, the latter riding a six-game winning streak. The Pats fell behind 16-7 until Belichick and Co. saw what they were dealing with and then outscored Denver 34-7 the rest of the way. Not much will change from then to now. Not only did that one set off a three-game losing streak for the Broncos, it quickly dispelled Denver’s defensive status. While some are quick to point out New England’s defensive deficiencies, the Broncos allowed 390 points this season compared to the Patriots’ 342. Offensively, the Broncos scored just 309 points on the year while the Pats racked up 513. With two weeks to prepare and the motivation from having lost this match over the past two seasons, the Patriots roll it up against this inferior guest. Play: New England -13½ (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).

[Mr. IWS]

Strike Point Sports

3-Unit Play. Take #111 Denver (+13.5) over New England (8 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 15)

[Mr. IWS]

Vegas Sports Informer

2 Unit Play. #110 Take San Francisco +3 ½ over New Orleans (4:30p.m., Saturday, Jan. 14 FOX)

[Mr. IWS]

Robert Ferringo

5-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 47.5 New Orleans at San Francisco (4:30 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 14)

0.5-Unit Play. Take #109 New Orleans (-3.5) over San Francisco (4:30 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 14)

1.5-Unit Play. Take #111 Denver (+13.5) over New England (8 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 14)

1-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 50.5 Denver at New England (8 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 14)

[Mr. IWS]

Andy Iskoe

SATURDAY

Saints -3½ at 49ers (47½): These teams last met early in the 2010 season when the Saints, favored by 5, won by just a field goal, 25-22, at San Francisco. The 49ers’ offensive strength is its running game, led by RB Frank Gore. Under first year coach Jim Harbaugh, QB Alex Smith displayed strong growth in the position and the Niners, though still operating with a run first mentality, did become more of a passing threat as the season progressed.

The 49ers also have outstanding special teams. Only Pittsburgh allowed fewer points than the 49ers and San Francisco ranked first both in fewest turnovers committed (10) and most turnovers forced (38, tied with Green Bay). The short line shows that the lines makers have great respect for San Francisco despite the Saints’ overwhelming edge in recent playoff experience.

The Saints have now covered nine straight games and are 13-4 ATS for the season. At the same time the Niners have also rewarded backers this season to the tune of 11-4-1 ATS. That combined ATS record of 24-8-1 is remarkable and thus it’s hard to make a case against either of these teams. This is only the fifth instance of a home underdog in the Divisional round of the playoffs but the last such occurrence was way back in 1997.

Sean Payton has established himself as one of the top coaches in the league and is now 67-36 in 6 seasons as New Orleans coach, including 5-2 in the post-season. San Francisco’s Harbaugh has made the transition from college football to the NFL as well as any coach ever has, although its been just one season. By lessening the number of possessions and using the strength of their special teams the Niners could make this a game that comes down to the wire. UNDER.

Broncos +14 at Patriots (51½): These teams met in Denver in week 15 when the Patriots overcame an early first half deficit to win handily, 41-23, and deal the Broncos the first of three straight losses to end the regular season. After missing the playoffs in 2008, with an 11-5 record, the Pats lost their first and only postseason in each of the past two seasons. And both games were at home.

Denver was outscored by 81 points in the regular season. A closer look at the stats shows that Denver had the league’s top rushing offense which, of course, was greatly impacted by the legs of Tebow. The Pats were right at the league average defending the run. Their defensive weakness was against the pass, allowing 295 ypg, ranking number 31. But notwithstanding last week, Denver’s offensive weakness is the pass

Having already seen Tebow and having made successful in game adjustments, combined with additional information from Tebow’s former coach add up to enough edges to suggest another one sided win in much more favorable conditions. Favorites of -13 or more in the Divisional round are 8-1 straight up and 5-3-1 AT

[Mr. IWS]

Dennis Ball @ Gaming Today

SATURDAY

Saints -3½ at 49ers: The Niners might be the surprise team of the season. Their 3-3 record speaks for itself. They won their division going away. In fact, if it was a car race, you might say San Francisco lapped the competition. That is of course, if you can get away with calling their divisional opponents legitimate competition with a straight face.

However, the Niners did win all 13 of those games and along the way pounded the Steelers and the Giants. But other than those two quality teams there were a couple of losses to Arizona and Baltimore, and several wins over teams that don’t so much as stand a chance of beating a playoff bound club.

Harbough has nailed the job responsibilities of head coach in his first year. Alex Smith has now been declared the long term answer at QB and is flourishing under the tutelage of the former QB. But as good as both have been, I can’t see the Niners winning this game or covering the point spread.

The Saints are just too darn explosive. They have more weapons than any team left in the field and no one knows how to deploy them better than Drew Brees. The Saints have nine straight wins and are almost a cinch to score over 40 against a lesser defense than the Niners. I don’t believe they’ll run up 40 here, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see 27 to 35 on the scoreboard.

The 49ers can’t keep up with the constant onslaught and pressure that Brees and company generate. The Saints set an NFL record for yards from scrimmage with a total of 7,474 yards. Meachem, Colston, Graham and Sproles are simply too much, even for the mighty Niners defense. SAINTS.

Broncos +13½ at Patriots: What can you possibly say about Tim Tebow that hasn’t already been said or joked about already. I believe Jesus could care less who wins NFL football games. I think Tebow is on record agreeing with that opinion. But just in case we’re both wrong, I’m not going to bet against this Tebow dude.

I bet on the Broncos last week, but it was more against a banged up Steelers team than it was on TT. So now, will we see Tim "tebowing" after the final gun in Foxborough? Well, I’m not going to pound the money line on this dawg but I do think the number is a little inflated.

The Pats set a franchise record 6,848 yards this season and tied an NFL record of at least 30 points in 12 games this season.

However, the Pats allowed 411 yards a game this season and their pass defense is ranked nearly dead last. Elway hit a home run with the hire of John Fox as head coach. He’s one smart dude.

So between Fox, Tebow and the tough Denver defense, not to mention the heavens above, I think the Broncos will be able to cover this tall number. BRONCOS.

[Mr. IWS]

SPS
6* #115 New York Giants (+7.5) over Green Bay (4:30 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 15) -
3* #113 Houston (+7.5) over Baltimore (1 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 15)
3* #111 Denver (+13.5) over New England (8 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 15)

[Mr. IWS]

VSI
2* #110 San Francisco +3 ½ over New Orleans (4:30p.m., Saturday, Jan. 14 FOX)
5*- #114 Baltimore -7 ½ over Houston (1:00p.m., Sunday, Jan. 15 CBS)
(Game of the Week)

[Mr. IWS]

Robert Ferringo
5* 'Under' 47.5 New Orleans at San Francisco (4:30 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 14)
.5* #109 New Orleans (-3.5) over San Francisco (4:30 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 14)
1.5* #111 Denver (+13.5) over New England (8 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 14)
1* 'Over' 50.5 Denver at New England (8 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 14)
1* #114 Baltimore (-7.5) over Houston (1 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 15)
.5* 'Under' 36.0 Houston at Baltimore (1 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 15)
1.5* #115 N.Y. Giants (+7.5) over Green Bay (4:30 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 15)
1*- 'Under' 53.0 N.Y. Giants at Green Bay (4:30 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 15)

[Mr. IWS]

Indian Cowboy
6*#114. Baltimore -7.5 over Houston Texans (Sunday @ 1pm est).
4* #116. Green Bay Packers -7.5 over New York Giants (Sunday @ 4:30pm est).

Free: Under 51.5 - Denver/New England

[Mr. IWS]

Jimmy Boyd

5* San Francisco +4

4* Denver +14

[Mr. IWS]

WUNDERDOG
3 - 2 last weekend
Game: New Orleans at San Francisco (Saturday 1/14 4:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: Game Total UNDER 47 -110

The New Orleans Saints are playing offensively at a level beyond even what the Green Bay Packers and Aaron Rodgers have done this season. Drew Brees has been surreal and the Saints are in uncharted waters having scored 42 or more points in each of their last four games. In those four games Brees has thrown for 17 TD passes to just three INT's. After last week's easy OVER in the New Orleans/Detroit game sailing over the 59 point total, this looks like an easy OVER too, right? Not so fast. The Saints have had an easy schedule this season in terms of the defenses they have faced. Since week five they have not faced a single defense that ranks better than 19th with the exception of the Atlanta Falcons. The problem with that is Atlanta ranks 20th against the pass, allowing Brees to operate. The big offensive numbers in the current New Orleans 9-0 SU + ATS run have come against eight teams that rank 20th or worse out of 32 teams. The only team that ranked respectfully was Tennessee and guess what? The Saints scored 22 in that one. In stark contrast, San Francisco ranks fourth in the league in defensive yards allowed. It is worth noting that they rank in the middle of the league (16th) against the pass. But does that mean Brees will feast? The Niners played to a 13-3 record and often had leads. Opposing teams often had to throw to try to win. As a result, the Niners allowed 104 of their 229 points in the fourth quarter! There was a lot of passing yards there but despite that, San Francisco allowed only 14.3 ppg. So I believe the Niners will have enough defensive success vs. Brees and the Saints to keep this score from getting out of hand. It's also very important to look at the location of this game. The Saints scored 41.6 ppg at home but just 27.3 ppg on the road - a full two-TD difference. And as far as the Niners go, they averaged 38 total points per game and gave up just 10.9 per game at home on the year. This total looks enticingly low because of the Saints offensive prowess in recent games, but now you know the rest of the story. Play UNDER.