9-23-12

[Mr. IWS]

Chuck O'Brien

The 60 DIME WINNER for Sunday in the NFL is going to be on the BALTIMORE RAVENS, in their Sunday Night Football showdown with the New England Patriots, at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore in a 5:30 p.m. (PT) kickoff. Now make note, as I release this game at 5 a.m. (PT), the line I am seesng at most Las Vegas and Offshore Sports Books is BALTIMORE -2.

[Mr. IWS]

DAVID BANKS

New England Patriots vs. Baltimore Ravens

Two great teams should both be in ornery moods coming off of losses when the New England Patriots (1-1, 1-1 ATS) visit the Baltimore Ravens (1-1, 2-0 ATS) in this week's Sunday Night Football contest from M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, MD at 8:20 ET on NBC. The Patriots should be in the foulest mood after getting shocked at home by the Arizona Cardinals 20-18 as 13-point favorites. The Ravens covered the spread in a narrow 24-23 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles on the road, but the proud Baltimore defense was awful in the defeat.

New England struggled with offensive line play during preseason and it was believed that would hold them back early on with Tom Brady taking some unnecessary hits, but the line held up well in a 34-13 rout of the Tennessee Titans in the road opening week with Brady sacked only once. However, that may have had more to do with a bad Tennessee defensive line, as the Cardinals put great pressure on Brady last week, sacking him four times for 19 yards worth of losses and forcing numerous hurried passes. Given all that, Brady still completed 28-of-46 passes for 316 yards with one touchdown and one interception, and the Patriots even got 71 rushing yards on 18 carries from Stevan Ridley. In fact, New England outgained Arizona by 142 total yards in the contest and it would have won the game if one of the best kickers in the NFL in Stephen Gostkowski did not miss what for him is a relatively chippie 42-yard field goal in the final seconds, especially after he connected on a 51-yarder earlier on. The Patriots very rarely lose back-to-back games and the manner in which they lost to a team with far less talent no doubt had Coach Bill Belichick in the players' ears in practice all week.

Baltimore has had one of the premier defenses in the NFL for over a decade now with relatively little to show for it since winning the Super Bowl way back in 2000, so the Ravens decided to change their philosophy this year and go to a no huddle offense in an attempt to score more points, and they looked like legitimate Super Bowl contenders with this approach in Week 1 by demolishing Cincinnati 44-13 here at home. They were not as successful on offense last week with Joe Flacco completing only 22 of his 42 passes for 232 yards, and the Ravens committed their first two turnovers of the year including a Flacco interception. Still, Baltimore did get 154 all-purpose yards from Ray Rice and they did score enough points to win. Unfortunately, the defense allowed an unbelievable 486 total yards including 371 passing yards by Michael Vick. So will Brady tear the Baltimore secondary to pieces here as he has done so many times to so many teams, or did the Ravens just have a bad day, meaning the defense will come out breathing fire this week?

Well, based on Brady's track record coming off of a loss, the favored Ravens could be in trouble. As a starter, Brady is now 24-12 ATS when coming off of a loss including 5-0 both ATS and straight up as an underdog in that situation. In fact, Brady is also 15-7 ATS as an underdog in all situations. Finally, the 'over' is 8-1 the last nine times that Baltimore was coming off of a loss.

Pick: OVER 49.5

[Mr. IWS]

Gold Medal Club Selections

#404 Dallas -7.5
#411 Ny Jets -1
#422 San Diego -3

[Mr. IWS]

Matt Fargo's 10* NFL DARK HORSE DANDY

Bengals

[RITZ]

HAMMERIN HANK ESPN
Arizona
baltimore
bears
saints
dallas

ytd 7-6
lw 4-2

[Mr. IWS]

Craig Davis


50 Dime Play this Sunday is a 2-Team Teaser on both the Kansas City Chiefs as the undvrdog against New Orleans, and the Dallas Cowboys as the favtortie against the Tampa Bay Bucs. As of 8:30 am eastern, the lines I am seeing in Vegas and the offshore books are Kansas City +8 1/2-points and Dallas -8 points. So in the tradisional 2 Team Teaser in which you are getting 6-points, I want you to take Kansas City teased up to +14 1/2 points, and Dallas teased down to -2 points.

[Mr. IWS]

ATS LOCK

7 Arizona +3.5 ov Philadelphia 4:05pm
6 Cleveland +3 ov Buffalo 1:00pm
5 Pittsburgh -3.5 ov Oakland 4:25pm
5 Miami +2 ov NY Jets 1:00pm

[Mr. IWS]

Mike Jacobs Sunday, September 23, 2012

10k Dime

Vikings +6.5

[Mr. IWS]

Lee Earnest

Take New Orlean Saints -8 over Kansas City Cheifs. 2 Unit 1:00pm EST


This is a must win game for each team as they have dropped their first 2 games. With all of the offseason controversy surrounding the Saints there were two ways that this season was going to play out, either the Saints were going to fold under the spotlight or they were going to rise up and show that they are still a very dangerous team. Over the first two weeks it appears that they were unfortunately going to fold this season but this week is the week that I feel they break out. The Saints only lost 3 total games last season. They are still a very potent offensive juggernaut who have the ability to move the ball up and down the field with ease. They have the offense but it has been their defense that has let them down. In their defense the Saints were put in a tough spot playing against two young, mobile quarterbacks in RG III and Cam Newton. Both of those quarterbacks add a different element to confuse defensive lines and cornerbacks. They are able to extend the plays with their legs and allow receivers to get open. Today the Saints should have an easier time containing Matt Cassell. Cassell is a prototypical quarterback and mediocre at best. Cassell has some impressive numbers through the first two games but that is mainly due to the fact that they have been playing from huge deficits and forced to abandon their game-plan and simply try to throw the ball downfield. I would expect that they find themselves in the hole again this afternoon. The Saints are extremely motivated and understand that they can not lose this game if they want to save their season. In years past, playing the Saints on the fast track in New Orleans has never been an easy feat. The Saints are one of, if not the best team when playing at home. Expect an all out effort from Drew Brees and the Saints today as they roll through Kansas City. This game is a turning point for the Saints. The Saints win this one by double-digits.


Take New York Jets -2 over Miami Dolphins 2 Unit 1:00pm EST

This game is a calssic example of reading into too much into what had happened last week. Let me take you back. In Week 1 the Jets came out and blew out Buffalo, meanwhile Miami got blown out by the Texans. Fast forward to Week to and the had a poor showing against Pittsburgh while Miami completely dominated Oakland. Oakland is not a great team. Their defense allowed Reggie Bush to accumulate almost 200 all purpose yards. They also allowed rookie Ryan Tannehill to pass for 200 yards and a score. The Jets defense is not any way shape or form comparable to Oaklands. I would expect Rex Ryan to come up with a plan to contain Bush and put pressure of Tannehill and force him into some bad throws. The Jets also get Darelle Revis back in the line up this afternoon which should take away their best receivers down the field. Lets not forget that the Jets offensive coordinator is former Miami head coach Tony Sparano. Sparano is the one responsible for acquiring 20+ of the starters on that team, he is also the one who implemented the offensive style that they use today. Knowing offensively what Miami is going to try and do is only going to help Rex Ryan come up with a defensive plan to stop it. It should be a long day for Miami this afternoon and they should struggle against this defense. The Jets also need this win today as they have a date with the 49ers and Texans coming up. They can't afford to lose this game. Had Miami not beat Oakland last week this line would be a whole lot higher and I'm going to take advantage.


Take Atlanta Falcons +3 over San Diego Chargers. 1 Unit 4:05pm EST

I am still not completely sold on the Chargers this season. I find myself constantly waiting for the time of the year when things blow up for the Chargers as it seems to happen every year. The Chargers are also in a position to start 3-0 for the first time in about 10 years and while they may do it, the Falcons are not going to make it easy. Atlanta is already 2-0 both SU and ATS against the AFC West and have the potential to come into San Diego and make it 3. The Falcons offense has undergone some changes in the offseason. The implementation of the no-huddle has been able to knock both KC and Denver's defense for a loop. Also their new "Amoeba" defense has been able to confuse offense as seen by their 3 interceptions against Peyton Manning last week. On paper the Falcons are the better team. If they do happen to lose this game ( which I don't think they should ) it won't be by more than a field goal.

[Mr. IWS]

Anderw Lange

NFL

20* jags+3
10* dolphins under 41.5
10* bills -3

[Mr. IWS]

Charlies Sports

500* Vikings +7
500* Jaguars +3
500* Falcons / Chargers Under 48
30* Falcons +3
20* Saints -8

[Mr. IWS]

Chase Diamond 200 dime

Chargers -3

[Mr. IWS]

Jimmy Boyd

5* Texas Rangers -138
5* Minnesota Vikings +7.5
4* Tampa Bay Bucs +8
4* Atlanta Falcons +3
3* New England Patriots +3

[Mr. IWS]

JACK JONES

25*PACKERS -3.5
15*r'skins -3.5
15*steelers -4.5
15*pats +3
f/p colts -3

[Mr. IWS]

OC Dooley:
“1 UNIT” LATE AFTERNOON NFL INTANGIBLE SIDE (Cardinals +3 at home versus Eagles in a 4:05 eastern kickoff): Most reading this analysis will remember when Kevin Kolb for a very brief time grabbed the starting quarterback job in Philadelphia before an injury ultimately forced him to give way to one Michael Vick. Of course the Eagles eventually traded Kolb to Arizona where the Cardinals inked him to a lucrative long term five-year contract. After being outplayed in the preseason, he lost for a second time since arriving in the desert the starting position to John Skelton. But in a twist of irony an ankle injury that forced Skelton to the sidelines in week-one gave Kolb as second chance of grabbing a regular NFL starting position behind center. Kolb was effective enough to help Arizona pull off a stunning outright upset at New England last week, but the big story is the Cardinals defense which so far has yielded only two touchdowns while harassing opposing quarterbacks with SEVEN SACKS. With the Philadelphia offensive line recently shuffled due to injury, today is another opportunity for that Arizona stop-unit to shine. The Eagles enter today with a 2-0 record even though committing 9 turnovers. They are actually the first team in the history of the NFL with a pair of “one point” outright triumphs despite turning the football over 9 times. Getting back to the host Cardinals who are also 2-0, one of the shocking statistics of last week’s mamouth upset at New England was that they thrived even though star wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald had only ONE reception. The following may come as a shock but dating back to last season Arizona is on a 9-2 SU roll, but seemingly the oddsmakers have yet to catch up with them