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David Banks
Best Bet - GB
Reg - NYJ, Wash, SF, GB Ov
MLB - SFG
Best Bet - GB
Reg - NYJ, Wash, SF, GB Ov
MLB - SFG
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Mark Mayer @ Gaming Today
Steelers -6 at Titans: Pittsburgh is winning ugly. The short week won’t help those looks. TITANS.
Chiefs +3½ at Bucs: Speaking of ugly. Tampa Bay needs to step up with Atlanta running away with this division. BUCS.
Rams +3½ at Dolphins: First time Miami has been favored this season. Plenty of good seats available. RAMS.
Patriots -4 at Seahawks: Outside elements like rabid fans, strange calls and a 2-0 home mark working against Pats. SEAHAWKS.
Vikings +2½ at Redskins: We’re assuming RG III will play. Can’t see Skins 0-3 at home and losing back to back. REDSKINS.Comment
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Richard Saber @ Gaming Today
Sunday, Oct. 14
Rams +3½ at Dolphins: The Dolphins have played five games with two wins. In all five they have opened as the dog. Now they are a favorite. The Rams are 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS. This game may be decided by a field goal. RAMSComment
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Sixth Sense
Some of you have asked how to play these games going forward knowing a large chunk of your bankroll has been lost. The best way to minimize your losses is to bet a percentage of your current bankroll. If you are playing these plays for 3% you should now be betting 3% of a bankroll, which is probably only at about 55% of where you started. That would make these plays closer to about 1.65% of your original bankroll when you began the season. Utilizing this method you will always minimize your risk and hopefully we can get this turned around sooner rather than later.
BEST BETS
YTD 6-19 –44.70%
213 3% KANSAS CITY +4
220 3% PHILADELPHIA –3.5
222 3% MIAMI –4
224 3% SEATTLE +3.5
230 3% SAN FRANCISCO –6.5
Pittsburgh –6 TENNESSEE 43.5
Tennessee qualifies in my turnover table, which is 439-289-18. Numbers favor Pittsburgh by just three points and predict about 46 points. Injuries will force Troy Polamalu and LaMarr Woodley out of this game. For Tennessee they get as healthy a WR Kenny Britt as they have seen this year. Jake Locker will miss another game. Tennessee has allowed at least 30 points in every game this year. Pittsburgh, on the road, is 0-2 and allowed 31 and 34 points in their two road games at Denver and Oakland. Pittsburgh has defeated Tennessee three in a row, including 19-11 here two years ago. As bad as Tennessee has been this year Pittsburgh hasn’t been very good on the road. And, Tennessee should have a healthy wide receiver trio in Washington, Britt and Wright along with their tight end Cook. This could be a good spot for Tennessee but Matt Hasselbeck has not played well in filling in for Jake Locker. I’ll lean to Tennessee to keep this game close. PITTSBURGH 24 TENNESSEE 21
Cincinnati – 2.5 CLEVELAND 43.5
Cleveland qualifies in a winless team situation, which is 110-59-7 as long as they are a dog. Numbers favor Cincinnati by .5 point and project about 46 points. Cincinnati has won three of the last four games played here. Other than the first week of the season Cleveland has allowed at least 23 points in every game this year. Knowing Cleveland has had trouble scoring points again this year, it will be tough for them to win this game if they allow 23 or more points. Cleveland lost in Cincinnati in week two this year, 27-34, but Cincinnati’s defense was banged up in that game and has improved greatly in the last few weeks as they get healthy bodies back in the lineup. I’ll lean to Cleveland in this game but can’t make them a best bet. They haven’t won a game this year and lost their last six games last year including nine of their last ten in 2011. That doesn’t leave much breathing room for Cleveland to not win this game but cover. CLEVELAND 23 CINCINNATI 20
NY JETS -3.5 Indianapolis 43
The Jets qualify in a negative rushing situation, which is 135-71-8 and plays against them here. Numbers favor NY by 1.5 points and project about 51 points. The Jets are a mess but they probably get TE Keller and WR Hill back this week which would help their putrid offense greatly. But, they may be missing a couple of key players on their defensive line and Revis, of course, is out for the year. Meanwhile, the Colts have played well compared to last year, but their defense isn’t great and they have some key injuries that won’t help them this week – Mathis and Vontae Davis on defense and Donald Brown on offense. As bad as the Jets have been this year they did destroy Buffalo in week one at home and their only other two home games have been against the two best teams in the league – San Francisco and Houston. The Colts are not either of those two teams. Meanwhile, Indianapolis has played just one game on the road back in week one and were beaten handily by the Bears, 41-21. Despite the value and situation favoring the Colts, I can only lean their way because of the short number with a bad defense on the part of the Colts. NY JETS 24 INDIANAPOLIS 23
TAMPA BAY -4 Kansas City 40
Kansas City qualifies in a contrarian bounce back situation, which is 153-90-5. Numbers favor TB by four points and project about 39 points. I’m having a hard time understanding how lowly TB can be favored by more than a field goal against just about any team. This is a TB team that won week one against Carolina (who we now know is not that good) and has lost their other three games this year to go along with their 10 straight losses to end last year. Kansas City’s problems haven’t been how they’ve played at the line of scrimmage. It has been turnovers, which are due to go there way sooner or later. Brady Quinn will play quarterback for the Chiefs this week and I can’t see how this will be any worse than when Cassell was playing quarterback. The Chiefs run the ball so much that the quarterback just needs to concentrate on holding on to the ball and handy off to the running backs. KC has enough skill players on offense to beat a bad TB team still trying to improve and the Bucs have been hit with injuries this year on both sides of the ball. The Chiefs have the better offense and defense, which they can’t say too often and now they are getting more than a field goal along with a solid situation in their favor. KANSAS CITY 27 TAMPA BAY 16
ATLANTA -9 Oakland 48.5
I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Atlanta by 14.5 points and project about 49 points. I don’t have much of an opinion on this game. Oakland has gone on the road twice this year and allowed 35 points at Miami and 37 at Denver. Atlanta is certainly capable of doing that as well. The numbers support Atlanta in this game and I don’t have any situations so I will lean that way. ATLANTA 28 OAKLAND 17
BALTIMORE -3.5 Dallas 44
Baltimore qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 692-544-38 but they don’t qualify in the best part of that situation. Numbers favor Baltimore by seven points and project about 44 points. A couple of my ratings make Baltimore only a three point favorite. As bad as Dallas has seemed this year they are pretty good from the line of scrimmage – not quite as good on offense as Baltimore but better than Baltimore on defense. Baltimore has played two good teams this year and both were close games. They lost by one at Philadelphia and defeated New England at home by one point on a last second field goal. Anything more than a field goal in this game is probably worth looking at. BALTIMORE 26 DALLAS 23
PHILADELPHIA -3.5 Detroit 47.5
Philadelphia qualifies in my turnover table, which is 440-289-18. Numbers favor Philly by two points and project about 48 points. Philly has been a surprise this year in that their offense is actually just average and once again they have a very good defense. The Lions offense has played well this year and their defense has been about average, which is an improvement for them. Philly has played close games this year but they have won both home games and those games were against Baltimore and the Giants, who are both better teams than Detroit. Meanwhile, Detroit just continues to give up a ton of points on the road. This year they lost by eight at San Francisco, allowing 27 points and losing by three at Tennessee, allowing 44 points. That means Detroit has now allowed at least 27 points in eight of their last nine road games. The only game they didn’t allow more than 27 points was when they faced Tim Tebow in Denver last year. I don’t see Detroit getting their running game going on the road against a good Philly defense. That means they will be one dimensional, which is always a risk, especially on the road. On the other hand I expect Philly to be able to run the ball, which they have done well this year and should be able to throw the ball against a below average Detroit passing defense. Better balance on offense for Philly and a better defense, laying a short number with a good situation in their favor. PHILADELPHIA 30 DETROIT 20
MIAMI -4 St Louis 38
Miami qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 692-544-38 but they don’t qualify in the best part of that situation. Numbers favor Miami by five points and project about 43 points. Miami could easily be 4-1 if not for two OT losses prior to last week. They come home after two games on the road, including a nice upset win at Cincinnati last week. Meanwhile, the Rams take to the road after two upset wins at home. St. Louis is a tough team to defeat at home but on the road, on grass, is a different animal for the Rams. Although they were defeated by the Lions in the last minute of their game, they were only in that game because of three Stafford interceptions. Statistically they were beaten badly. At Chicago, they played a close game until the fourth quarter but their offense resembled the Rams offense of last year. With WR Danny Amendola out for a while, the Rams offense figures to struggle in this game as well. Miami is well coached and although they have secondary issues (played very well at Cincinnati last week), that doesn’t figure to be an issue against a Rams offense that will struggle to take advantage of their weakness. The Rams want to run the ball and that will be tough sledding against a very good Miami rush defense. Miami has been in every game this year other than their week one blowout at Houston. I would argue they were even in that game other than a few minutes before the first half where the Dolphins turned the ball over three or four times and fell out of a close game. A good situation and value lie with the Dolphins to take advantage of a Rams team that isn’t the same team on the road that they are at home. MIAMI 27 ST LOUIS 17
New England -3.5 SEATTLE 44.5
Seattle qualifies in a home dog momentum situation, which is 52-21-1. They also qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 73-28-4. Numbers favor Seattle by .5 point and project about 45 points. Seattle is 14-5 ATS at home under Pete Carroll, although only 4-4 ATS when facing a team with a .600 record or better. This game pits offense against defense and if Seattle is going to win this game, it probably needs to be a low scoring game. The Seahawks have already defeated Dallas and Green Bay here at home and both of those teams came off of Thursday games so had plenty of time to prepare for their game at Seattle and still failed to get the job done. NE is on a roll but they will face the best defense they have faced this year, especially because they have to face them in Seattle. For me this game is simply taking Seattle, who has value on their side, and the fact they have both a technical and fundamental rushing situation in their favor. Typically when I have fundamental and technical situations in one teams favor, that’s a pretty strong combination that is worth playing. SEATTLE 24 NEW ENGLAND 21
ARIZONA -4.5 Buffalo 43.5
I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Arizona by 8.5 points and project about 48 points. The numbers favor Arizona but I don’t have much interest in laying this many points with Arizona who is down their top two running backs. But, for Buffalo, who has been blown away the last few weeks, they are down DE Mark Anderson as well as at least two starting offensive lineman and maybe two more offensive lineman. I have no opinion on this game other than its hard to believe Buffalo will play as badly as they have the last two weeks. ARIZONA 27 BUFFALO 23
WASHINGTON -2 Minnesota
I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Minnesota by 1.5 points and project about 48 points. It looks like RGIII will play in this game and attempt to stop a Washington eight game home losing streak. Washington has lost the last two seasons here to Minnesota. I don’t have enough information to make a play on Minnesota and the Vikings have a tendency to play very conservative on the road this year. Minnesota lost at Indy and defeated Detroit but failed to score an offensive touchdown in that game. They won on the heels of a kick off return and a punt return for touchdowns. Washington has allowed at least 22 points in every game this year while the Vikings offense (which was not considered a strength at the beginning of the season) has scored at least 20 points in every game this year. Minnesota hasn’t allowed more than 13 points in each of the last three weeks although Washington’s offense will test that having scored at least 24 points in all but one game this year. Lean to the better defense in this game. MINNESOTA 26 WASHINGTON 23
SAN FRANCISCO -6.5 NY Giants 45.5
San Francisco qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 511-329-23. Numbers favor SF by seven points and project about 51 points. In years past the Giants would have the better offense in this game and the 49ers would have the better defense. That has changed as the 49ers offense is as good as the Giants now and the 49ers defense is light years better than the Giants defense. Jim Harbaugh’s teams have been excellent at home as the 49ers are now 10-1-1 ATS as coach of the 49ers with the only spread loss coming in last years NFC Championship game. The Giants have had injuries in their secondary that they have been able to overcome mostly because they haven’t faced very good teams – defeated Tampa Bay, Carolina and Cleveland. Those three teams have combined to win three games with TB defeating Carolina for their only win. Against the two good teams they have played the Giants lost by seven to Dallas and by two to the Eagles. The 49ers haven’t played a real tough schedule either but they have gone to GB and won. As good as Manning and the Giants are when faced in a tough situation, I just don’t see them being able to match scores with the 49ers, who have a much better defense. SF defeated the Giants here in the regular season last year 27-20. SF has scored at least 27 points in each of their home games this year and not allowed more than 19 points, while the Giants haven’t scored more than 17 points against the two best teams they have faced this year, who both have good defenses but not as good as SF. Too much defense in this game for the 49ers. SAN FRANCISCO 30 NY GIANTS 17
HOUSTON –3.5 Green Bay 47.5
GB qualifies in a fundamental rushing momentum situation, which is 313-212-26. Numbers favor Houston by nine points and project about 42 points. The Packers backs are against the wall although their schedule is relatively easy after this game for the rest of the year. Having said that, no game has been easy for GB this year. The Packers come in banged up as they are likely to play this game without WR Jennings, TE Finley, RB Benson and NT Raji. Houston lost LB Cushing last week and that is a big loss for them. The situation that applies to GB is a very good situation but the numbers show value towards Houston, which will keep me off of GB. The Packers offense hasn’t gotten it going all year and they figure to struggle in this game as well. The Packers defense has played well this year and against a Houston team who isn’t as explosive as some of the Houston teams in years past, the Packers defense has a chance to keep the Texans scoring down. Houston hasn’t faced many good teams this year with their toughest game at Denver. The Packers have faced SF, Chicago and Seattle so they are battle tested against tough teams. But, GB has struggled to score against good defensive teams. They managed 22 against SF but scored late in that game when it was already decided. They scored 23 against the Bears but seven points came on a fourth and 26 fake field goal and they managed just 12 points at Seattle. The Packers only scored 14 points in their last road game last year at KC so the offense has not produced like they are used to. My numbers only show 42 points being scored in this game so I definitely lean towards the under. Both teams can certainly score points so I will stay off the under in this game but lean strongly that way. HOUSTON 23 GREEN BAY 20Comment
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