12-20-12

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From Platinum Plays.

500K Bowl Shocker

the San Diego St Aztecs +3½ over
the BYU Cougars

Best Bets



the Miami Heat -5 over
the Dallas Mavericks

the Denver Nuggets -1½ over
the Portland Trailblazers

the USC Trojans -8½ over
the UC-Irvine Anteaters

the LaSalle Explorers -5½ over
the Iona Gaels



PLATINUM PLAYS PREMIER PICK



the BYU/San Diego St UNDER
the Total Of 48 Points

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Northcoast Bowl Power Sweep

2* BYU

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Football Crusher
San Diego State +3.5 over BYU
(System Record: 42-3, won last game)
Overall Record: 42-44-4

Basketball Crusher
to come
(System Record: 28-2, lost last 2 games)
Overall Record: 28-22-0



Soccer Crusher
Rayo Vallecano + Levante OVER 2
This match is happening in Spain
(System Record: 330-14, won last game)
Overall Record: 330-291-39

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Poinsettia Bowl: What Bettors Need to Know

Poinsettia Bowl: BYU Cougars vs. San Diego State Aztecs (+3, 48.5)

POINSETTIA BOWL STORYLINES

1. Two former conference foes renew a rivalry that is much more important to San Diego State. The Aztecs are seeking their first 10-win season since 1977 and playing in a third consecutive bowl game for the initial time in program history. Brigham Young attempts to add on to its dominating 27-7-1 edge in the all-time series and is 5-2 in bowl games under eight-year coach Bronco Mendenhall.

2. Mendenhall has an interesting decision to make at quarterback between Riley Nelson and one-game sensation James Lark. Nelson has been maddeningly inconsistent and his absence because of injured ribs presented Lark with the opportunity to pass for 384 yards and six touchdowns in the regular-season finale against porous New Mexico State.

3. Mountain West Coach of the Year Rocky Long of San Diego State and Mendenhall are highly familiar with one another. Mendenhall was defensive coordinator under Long for five seasons (1998-2002) at New Mexico and considers him a mentor. The Aztecs’ atypical 3-3-5 defensive alignment doesn’t prompt an uncomfortable adjustment period for Mendenhall and the BYU staff, who have previously coached against it on several occasions.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: BYU opened between a 2.5 and 3.5-point favorite while the total has moved from 49 to as low as 48 before settling in between.

WEATHER: The forecast calls for clear skies and temperatures in the mid 50s. Winds are expected to blow NNW at 2 mph.

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings in San Diego State.
* Cougars are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 meetings.
* Home team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.

ABOUT BRIGHAM YOUNG (7-5, 6-6 ATS): No matter who starts at quarterback, junior receiver Cody Hoffman is a big-time threat with 90 catches for 1,134 yards and 11 touchdowns. Hoffman caught a school-record five touchdowns in the season finale. Freshman Jamaal Williams rushed for a team-best 744 yards for an offense that averages 29.2 points. The Cougars shine on defense, led by junior Kyle Van Noy. The dominating linebacker has 11.5 sacks and five forced fumbles for a unit that ranks third in total defense (266.3 yards per game) and fifth in scoring defense (14.7). BYU’s stout rushing defense (84.3) ranks second nationally as it goes up against a strong San Diego State rushing attack. The Cougars often land an edge in field position with senior Riley Stephenson, who ranks second nationally in punting at 47.3 with a 42.2 net average.

ABOUT SAN DIEGO STATE (9-3, 7-1 Mountain West, 8-4 ATS): The Aztecs have won seven straight games and haven’t lost since September. San Diego State has set a school-record with 2,750 rushing yards – the old mark of 2,476 was set during Marshall Faulk’s freshman campaign in 1991 – with sophomore Adam Muema leading the way with 1,355 yards and 16 rushing scores. San Diego State will be without senior Walter Kazee (822 yards), who injured his knee in the regular season finale. The strong running game has aided sophomore quarterback Adam Dingwell (eight touchdowns, four interceptions) after he became the starter for the final four regular season games because of a season-ending injury to Ryan Katz. Senior cornerback Leon McFadden (three interceptions) will be called on to help slow Hoffman, while junior safety Nat Berhe (team-best 87 tackles) and sophomore middle linebacker Jake Fely (86 stops, team-high seven sacks) are top-notch defenders.

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StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

CBB IUPUI at VALPARAISO

Play On - Any team (VALPARAISO) an excellent defensive team (<=63 PPG) against a poor defensive team (74-78 PPG), after a loss by 6 points or less.
59-26 over the last 5 seasons. ( 69.4% 30.4 units )
3-2 this year. ( 60.0% 0.8 units )

CBB TEXAS ST at C MICHIGAN

Play Against - Any team (TEXAS ST) off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog, with just two starters returning from last season.
901-581 since 1997. ( 60.8% 151.1 units )
18-7 this year. ( 72.0% 5.5 units )

CBB ELON at DUKE

Play Against - Favorites of 6 or more points vs. the first half line (DUKE) an excellent defensive team (<=63 PPG) against a good defensive team (63-67 PPG), after scoring 75 points or more 3 straight games.
70-33 since 1997. ( 68.0% 33.7 units )
3-1 this year. ( 75.0% 1.9 units )

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StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

NBA OKLAHOMA CITY at MINNESOTA

Play On - Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (OKLAHOMA CITY) a very good team (>=+7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after leading their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half.
46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% 26.2 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% -0.1 units )

NBA OKLAHOMA CITY at MINNESOTA

Play Against - Home underdogs vs. the money line (MINNESOTA) after 1 or more consecutive losses, extremely tired team - playing their 5th game in 7 days.
193-60 since 1997. ( 76.3% 68.8 units )
3-0 this year. ( 100.0% 3.0 units )

NBA OKLAHOMA CITY at MINNESOTA

Play Against - Road favorites of 2 to 5.5 points vs. the first half line (OKLAHOMA CITY) after having covered 2 of their last 3 against the spread, a top-level team (>=75%) playing a team with a winning record.
58-26 since 1997. ( 69.0% 29.4 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% 1.0 units )

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Handicapping Kings

GOODFELLAS

10:30PM Idaho State vs Portland State
[536] Portland State -8 -110

JIMMY

9:00PM Idaho vs Boise State
[518] Boise State -12.5 -110

MARC

7:05PM Oklahoma City Thunder vs Minnesota Timberwolves
[501] UNDER 198.5 -110

PERRY

SPAIN

DEP LA CORUNA/RCD ESPANYOL BARCELONA UNDER 2.5 -120 (4PM)

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CAPPERS ACCESS

San Diego St
Mavericks

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JOE WIZ FREE PLAY

Thursday ... In College Hoops take IUPUI +19 over Valparaiso

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Paul Leiner
1000* San Diego St +3.5

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Jack Jones
20* BYU -2.5(released a few days ago)

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ROOT

MILLIONAIRES>>>>>>>>>>Take San Diego St


The San Diego State Aztecs get set to host the BYU Cougars in the Poinsettia Bowl. The San Diego State Aztecs finished their regular season with a solid record of 9-3, while going 7-1 in the Mountain West Conference. The Aztecs have one of the better ground attacks in the nation, averaging an impressive 229 yards per game. SDSU is also scoring a solid 35 points per game on average this season. San Diego State is also converting right at 50 percent of their third downs this season as the Aztecs are able to stay ahead of the chains and keep third downs manageable with that ground attack. The BYU Cougars finished their regular season with a record of 7-5. Unlike the Aztecs, the Cougars aren't lighting many teams up on the scoreboard. The Cougars defense has the ability to stop the Aztecs but it all really just comes down to motivation. And the $84 dollar question is who will be motivated more. San Diego St. It is year after year after year that BYU plays in what used to be called the Holiday Bowl and now the Poinsetta Bowl. Same city everytime. The home team will play hard for their fans. Additionally, the defense can only get tired to finish the season as the Aztecs just run, run and run some more. It's very hard to get up for that type of game.

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Accuscore -- 0-1 so far on Bowls

Written by Rohit Ghosh

Poinsettia Bowl Preview – SDSU vs BYU

This year’s Poinsettia Bowl features a great match-up between the BYU Cougars (7-5) and San Diego State Aztecs (9-3). Until recent realignment, these two teams were quite familiar with one another due to a Mountain West conference rivalry. Now BYU is independent, and SDSU is headed for the Big East (for now). Don’t let the records fool you; these two teams are evenly matched and Thursday’s bowl game could be one that goes down to the final whistle.

AccuScore has the Cougars as slight 50.5 percent favorites with the average score projected to be 27.3-26.6. BYU is favored by 3.5 points but has just a 42.2 percent chance of covering that spread. There is a 59.5 percent chance that the total goes OVER 58.5 points. Based on AccuScore’s data, the safest bet would be to take SDSU and the points.

After posting an impressive 10-3 record last year, BYU seemed to disappoint more often than not this season. Bronco Mendenhall’s team lost five times, four by six points or fewer. The trend of losing close games has been primarily blamed on inconsistent quarterback play. Riley Nelson has been in and out of the lineup this season due to injuries and has been substantially more erratic than he was last year. In 2011 he threw for 8.5 yards per pass attempt and finished the year with 19 TDs and 7 INTs. This year, Nelson's interceptions went up, and his touchdowns went down. Also, his yards per pass attempt were down and he was sacked more often. This season he threw for 2,011 yards (59.2 percent completion rate) and a passer rating of 120.1. He has thrown for 13 TDs and 12 INTs. AccuScore projects 252 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, and a passer rating of 133.5 for Nelson against the Aztecs. Quarterback James Lark has been receiving snaps in practice, but at this time Nelson is still projected to start.

BYU’s rush attack isn’t anything extra special either. The Cougars get approximately 4.75 yards per carry (which is actually a yard more than SDSU). Running back Jamaal Williams has rushed for 744 yards (4.9 ypc) and 11 TDs this season. He is projected to carry it 13 times for 65 yards and has a high probability of seeing the end-zone. Michael Alisa and Nelson are projected to carry it ten times each as well; Alisa is projected to rush for 43 yards and Nelson, 22. "Wide receiver Cody Hoffman, who caught for 1,134 yards and 11 TDs, is projected to catch it 6 times for 74 yards."

Simply put, BYU’s offensive numbers are not impressive. Their defense, however, is a different story. BYU led the nation in red zone efficiency defense, limiting touchdowns by forcing turnovers and field goals week after week. They are among the nation's leaders in rush defense, total defense and points allowed. The defense is projected to get 2+ sacks, and has a very high probability of forcing 2 turnovers (an interception and a fumble).

The Aztecs, offensively, are much more ground-driven than the Cougars. They are led by quarterback Adam Dingwell and running back Adam Muema. Muema has carried it 211 times this season for 1,355 yards (6.4 ypc) and 16 TDs. His longest run was for 83 yards. Sophomore QB Dingwell has thrown for 795 yards (6.91 ypa) with 8 TDs and 4 INTs.

Muema is projected to carry it 16+ times for 89 yards and a TD. Dingwell is projected to throw for 208 yards, 1-2 TDs, and 1 INT, with a passer rating of 133.8. The other main Aztec back, Walter Kazee, is projected to carry it 12 times for 56 yards. Wide receiver Gavin Escobar is projected to catch it three times for 37 yards.

SDSU’s defense has held five of their last seven opponents under 19 points. After starting the season giving up big plays, the defense improved as the season progressed and ended the regular season very well. BYU coach Mendenhall is familiar with SDSU head coach Rocky Long as Mendenhall was Long’s defensive coordinator when they were both at New Mexico. The SDSU defense is projected to also get 2+ sacks along with forcing two turnovers (an INT and a fumble).

These two teams are familiar with each other and the projection data clearly shows that. Neither team has much of an advantage in any aspect of the game; we should expect a close one throughout. I’ll go with AccuScore and say BYU wins by 3.

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5Lines


Total Line for 12/20/2012
(Lost last 2 games and 1 Cancelled)
Today's Winning Team is:
NBA - Miami Heat : o202.5
Cost: -110


Run Line for 12/20/2012
(Won last game)
Today's Winning Team is:
NBA - Miami Heat : -5
Cost: -110

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Jimmy Boyd

5* NBA Best Bet
Minnesota Timberwolves +4.5
5* Poinsettia Bowl
BYU -3
3* NCAAB Smash
Nicholls State +18