12-27-12

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Powersweep

2★: BOWLING GREEN (+) over SJ St.

4★: DUKE (+) over Cincinnati

2★: UCLA over Baylor

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Northcoast
Power Plays

MILITARY BOWL Thursday, December 27th • 3:00 pm ESPN • RFK Stadium

BOWLING GREEN (8-4) Washington, DC SAN JOSE ST (10-2)
While the Spartans enter this matchup as a td favorite, the yds actually say the Falcons as they are forecasted to outgain SJSt by a 338-332 mark and are happy to be here after questions about whether or not they would be selected for the post season. BG keeps this contest within a td.
3* BOWLING GREEN 19 (+) SAN JOSE ST 25

BELK BOWL
CINCINNATI (9-3) Charlotte, NC DUKE (6-6)

The Bearcats will be playing without their head coach here while the Blue Devils are ecstatic to be back in a bowl after an 18 yr layoff. Cincy and Duke are forecasted to rack up nearly 900 total yards and we agree in this probable shootout.
4* OVER CINCINNATI 35 DUKE 27

HOLIDAY BOWL Thursday, December 27th • 9:45 pm ESPN • Qualcomm Stadium
BAYLOR (7-5) San Diego, CA UCLA (9-4)

2nd consecutive year that Baylor is facing a P12 team in the post ssn (67-56 win over Wash in LY’s Alamo). This isn’t your average UCLA offense, however, and PP agrees as while the yardage forecast is nearly even, the Bruins have the narrow point edge and are fairly close to home.
1* UCLA 43 BAYLOR 40

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Winning Points

MILITARY BOWL (at Washington, DC)
San Jose State over Bowling Green by 9
Bowling Green won seven of their last eight games to finish 8-4. QB Matt Schilz
was a steady hand and RB Anthon Samuel had a solid season, but the Falcons
earned their spurs with a rock-ribbed defense that held seven opponents under 200
yards. Chris Jones was a disruptive force in the interior of the BG DL. Despite
these numbers, we’re inclined to lay the points.
San Jose State had the unusual distinction of winning road games in all four continental time zones.
The most noteworthy was a 12-0 whitewash of Navy in nearby Annapolis.
The Spartans held the Midshipmen to 144 yards. Juco transfer David Fales, who initially signed with
Nevada, is the nation’s most accurate quarterback, completing 72.1 percent of his
throws. Fales exhibits great poise in the pocket as he demonstrated vs. Utah State,
completing 38 of 50 for 407 yards despite being under constant duress. DE Travis
Johnson currently leads all active players in career sacks and freshman Austin Lopez
is 15-for-15 in the FG department (vs. 7-of-15 for his BG counterparts). The
Spartans went toe-to-toe with Stanford and ultimately played the stronger schedule.
The departure of HC Mike MacIntyre to Colorado is a red flag, but interim
coach Kent Baer is popular with the players and (at press time) was on the short
list of candidates to replace MacIntyre, making this game an audition.
SAN JOSE STATE 28-19

BELK BOWL (at Charlotte, NC)
Cincinnati over Duke by 3
It’s hard to build a case for Duke, a bowl virgin of sorts. The 6-6 Blue Devils finished fifth in a 6-team division inhabited by two superior teams saddled with postseason bans. Moreover, Duke lost their last four starts by an average of 25.5 points
– games in which the defense was shredded for 2373 yards (1178 rushing). By contrast, Cincinnati finished 9-3, was competitive in every game, and held six opponents under 400 yards. However, can we trust Cincinnati? The Bearcats have an
unproven QB – likely starter Brendan Kay has only four starts under his belt – lost
DE Walter Stewart, their best defensive player, at mid-season, and will be piloted
by an interim coach, the well-traveled Steve Stripling. Who knows what changes
Tommy Tuberville will make and the uncertainty is potentially a large distraction.
In Duke’s favor, few teams have been hit harder by injuries and the team figures to
be somewhat healthier coming off a 33-day break. They own a substantial edge at
QB. Sean Renfree (34 career starts) is projected to be a mid-round draft pick, as is
his roommate, slot receiver Connor Vernon. It theoretically helps that this game is
being staged in the heart of ACC country. Cincinnati was unable to sell their full
allotment of tickets to LY’s Liberty Bowl and there will be more empty seats on
their side of the stadium. CINCINNATI 31-28.

HOLIDAY BOWL (San Diego, CA)
U.C.L.A. over Baylor by 4
Once again, Baylor cranked up the juice in the homestretch to land an attractive
bowl bid. The Bears emerged from a mid-season slump with a resounding burst,
covering the spot in their last five starts, a development keyed by Lache Seastrunk’s
increased workload. Living up to his high school press clippings, the Oregon transfer averaged 8.1 yards per carry over the final five games. QB Nick Florence also
played well, no surprise as he started as a true freshman in 2009 before being overtaken by the incredible RG3. However, Baylor’s shabby defense has us leaning
toward their opponent. Yes, the Bears overcame that defect in LY’s Alamo Bowl,
upending Washington, but this year’s “D” is even flimsier, allowing 513.9 YPG.
UCLA brings more to the table than the 2011 edition that finished 6-8. The captain of the UCLA ship for UCLA’s bowl game LY was first-year assistant Mike
Johnson, a fellow who had been dismissed by the 49ers and wouldn’t be retained
by incoming coach Jim Mora. Mora was smart to demote QB Kevin Prince in favor
of the more talented Brett Huntley. He operates behind an OL fortified by a new
old face in Xavier Su’a-Filo, back from his Mormon mission. Converting backup
RB Anthony Barr into a linebacker was a stroke of genius. Can the Bruins regroup
after coming ever-so-close to hosting the Rose Bowl? We like their chances at this
in-state venue. UCLA 38-34.

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Football Betting Sheet

2012-13 Bowl Season

Plays based upon a five-point scale. Plays over a 4.0 are strong plays.
Plays above 4.5 are mandatory plays.
SEASON RECORD: 53-36-1

Military Bowl: San Jose State Aztecs 26
BOWLING GREEN FALCONS 24 (3:00 ET 12/27) – San Jose State opened at -7 and has held right there in spite of the fact that 58% of the betting action is on its side. Bowling Green has the best defense in the MAC, and it has an offense led by QB Matt Schilz that can do some damage. San Jose State might have been the best or second best team in the WAC this year, but BGSU is 7-1 SU and ATS in its L/8 games.
BOWLING GREEN +7 Rating: 4.5/5

Holiday Bowl: UCLA Bruins 49
Baylor Bears 45 (9:45 ET 12/27) – The 'total' opened at 76.5 and shot up quickly to 79.5. Is either team going to stop the other in this one. Baylor averages a total of 1,098 yards and 82.2 points per game. UCLA averages 885 yards and 61.0 points per game combined. Take away the two games against a solid Stanford defense, and the Bruins averaged 77.5 PPG in the last month and a half of the season. This game is very likely to get into the 80s or the 90s.
OVER 79.5 Rating: 4.1/5

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Statfox

Bowling Green Falcons 17
San Jose State Spartans 24

Cincinnati Bearcats 39
Duke Blue Devils 21

Baylor Bears 38
UCLA Bruins 42

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Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, December 29th
Belk Bowl: BOA Stadium Charlotte, NC
Cincinnati (-7) vs. Duke 6:30 ET ESPN

5* Duke +7
This is our 3rd consecutive bowl analysis which finds a coaching change for the favorite and a site advantage for the underdog. They are solid edges that we will use for another ATS victory with Duke. I am fully aware that Duke has not won a game since October 20th when they clinched their bowl bid with a 33-30 upset of rival North Carolina. Facing their usual attrition and with the schedule becoming far more rigorous, they finished 0-4 SU, ATS losing by 41 to Florida State, 36 to Clemson, 18 to Georgia Tech and 7 to Miami, FL. In those games, they allowed just under 50 PPG (that may be a clue as to my Total opinion on this game). Now, they step down in class to face the type of team against whom they started the season 6-2 SU. There is no doubt they will be pumped to play their first bowl since 1994 in nearby Charlotte. The Bearcats finished 9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS in a 4 way tie for the BIG EAST title. This has been a highly successful program under 3 coaches, who should they win this game, will have won 10 games in 5/6 seasons. Much like previous coaches, however, 3rd year HC Jones has used this program as a spring board to a better job. He has been hired as head man at Tennessee. Though Tommy Tuberville (Texas Tech) has been hired as his replacement, DL Coach Steve Stripling will serve as the interim coach for this Bowl. On the field, the Bearcats got a midseason boost from the insertion of QB Kay in place of QB Legaux. It loosened the reins of the Bearcat offense as they scored 27 points in 5/6 final games. They will no doubt have success against the Duke defense allowing 462 yards. But the Devils did not make their money with their stop unit. That came with a passing attack led by QB Renfree that averaged 31 PPG. Highly respected HC Cutcliffe, named ACC Coach of the Year, is known as a brilliant offensive mind who is bound to have some tricks up his sleeve for this Bowl game. Combination of the Duke passing attack, playing as underdog in their home state, and the Cincinnati coaching change makes this an underdog call on the BlueDevils.

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Free Holiday Bowl Winner From Spartan

I am going to go with the Holiday Bowl as my free selection.
If you like defense, then turn away from this one and tune into something else because this one is not for you. I am going to cut right to the quick here.
I like Art Briles and his Baylor Bears to take care of business here against UCLA.
Too bad the Bears could not put together more efforts like the one they exhibited against Kansas State back on November 17th when they took to the field as an 11.5 point dog and manhandled the Wildcats destroying any hopes K-State had of appearing in the national title game. I thought Nick Florence did a helluva job this fall stepping into the QB role following Griffin. Talk about monster shoes to fill. But in the end he did throw for over 4,000 yards and fire off 31 TD passes and even rushed himself for a stellar 531 yards. In my opinion for the Bruins to have their best chance in this shootout is to put pressure on Florence and that could be much easier said than done. The Baylor offensive line did a more than reasonable job this season keeping Florence upright considering he tossed a total 451 times and was sacked a mere 16 times over the duration of the season to date. In the final analysis I cannot see the Bruins keeping pace here. The Baylor defense, although nobody will be comparing them to Bama anytime soon, was making progress as the year moved along. Just ask Bill Snyder and any of his Wildcats. This should be an entertaining one, if you like lot's of points, but I see Baylor pulling away and prevailing 47-34. Unless the Bears have a horrific night with turnovers, they will leave San Diego celebrating a nice Bowl winner.

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DOC SPORTS

Play. #220 Take Duke Blue Devils +7.5 over Cincinnati Bearcats (Belk Bowl, 12/27, 6:30 pm ESPN)

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ROBERT FERRINGO

#218 San Jose State (-7) over Bowling Green (3 p.m., Thursday, Dec. 27)

#220 Duke (+7.5) over Cincinnati (6:30 p.m., Thursday, Dec. 27)

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NBA

Hot Teams
-- Thunder won its last ten home games (7-3 vs spread).
-- Clippers won their last 14 games (6-1 last 7 as HF).

Cold Teams
-- Mavericks lost six of their last seven games (1-3 last four as AU).
-- Celtics lost five of last six road games (1-4 last five as AU).

Totals
-- Four of last five Dallas games went over the total; Thunder's last four games stayed under.
-- Seven of last nine Clipper games stayed under the total.

Back-to-backs
-- None.

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CBB

-- Visitors won three of last four FAU-Troy games; Owls won last two visits here, by 88-67/82-77ot. 4-7 Florida Atlantic is 3-2 vs teams not in top 200, losing by by 20 at Miss State, by 1 at home to Stetson. Troy is getting to foul line less than any team in country; they've lost six of last seven games- their best win was against #210 SE Missouri State.
-- Home side won last seven ULL-Arkansas State games; Ragin' Cajuns lost last three visits here, by 5-9-2 points. ULL is 1-6 on road, but won Sun Belt road opener at North Texas; best team they've beaten is #168 Oakland. State lost its first two league games, by 19-7 points, both vs teams not in top 200; four of last five games were decided by 7 or less. .
-- FIU is playing fifth road game in row; they've played #76 schedule, but young Pitino needs some home games- Panthers force turnovers on 23.9% of possessions, but foes shoot 55% from floor against them. FIU won at Western Kentucky LY, its first win in last nine tries vs WKU, with last three losses at WKU by 7-17-13 points.
-- 12-1 New Mexico just lost at home to South Dakota State; they're 2-0 on road, winning in OT at Indiana State, by 5 at New Mexico State- they lost by 3 in NCAAs LY to another Big East team (Louisville). Cincinnati is 12-0, 4-0 vs top 100 teams, winning by 8-11-2-15 points; Bearcats are experienced, but played #324 schedule so far. Lobos played sked #123.

-- Rhode Island won four of last six games after 0-5 start; they're 0-4 vs top 100 teams, losing by 11-5-3-15 points. Rams are 1-2 on road, with 19-point loss at Va Tech, 15 at Providence, double OT win at Auburn. St Mary's has a 58.6 eFG%, #2 in country; they're 5-0 at home, with a 86-68 win closest win. Seven of Gaels' eight wins are by 12+ points.
-- 4-7 Fort Wayne is 3-4 vs teams not in top 200; they're 1-6 on road, with only win by four at #286 Dartmouth; Mastadons are 2-10 in last 12 games vs IUPUI, losing five of last six here, with three of last four in this gym decided by 3 or less points. Five of Fort Wayne's losses are by 10+ points. IUPUI lost nine of its last ten games vs D-I teams.
-- Oakland won 11 of last 12 games vs Western Illinois, winning last five in this gym, by 4-23-4-25-14 points; they won here in double OT LY, after losing to Leathernecks at home- gap has narrowed between teams. Grizzlies are 3-8 vs #4 schedule in country; they're 2-2 vs teams ranked below #150. WIU won its last five games, allowing average of 54.2 ppg.
-- BYU thrashed Northern Arizona 87-52 LY; all four of Cougars' losses are to teams in top 75- they're 6-0 vs teams not in top 150, winning by 15-18-19-12-25-3 points. NAU lost by 46 at Colorado last game, after splitting pair of Big Sky games; they're 0-4 vs top 100 teams, losing by 10-38-43-47 points. Four of seven NAU losses are by 10 points or less.

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goodfella

3* bowl goy ucla pk

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NCAA Basketball Picks

New Mexico at Cincinnati

The Lobos look to build on their 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 road games. New Mexico is the pick (+7) according to Dunkel, which has the Bearcats favored by only 4 1/2. Dunkel Pick: New Mexico (+7). Here are all of today's games.

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 27 Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST

Game 505-506: Florida Atlantic at Troy (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Florida Atlantic 46.283; Troy 47.800 Dunkel Line: Troy by 1 1/2 Vegas Line: Troy by 3 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Florida Atlantic (+3 1/2)

Game 507-508: UL-Lafayette at Arkansas State (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: UL-Lafayette 49.280; Arkansas State 57.336 Dunkel Line: Arkansas State by 8 Vegas Line: Arkansas State by 6 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Arkansas State (-6 1/2)

Game 509-510: Florida International at Western Kentucky (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Florida International 51.663; Western Kentucky 60.129 Dunkel Line: Western Kentucky by 8 1/2 Vegas Line: Western Kentucky by 6 Dunkel Pick: Western Kentucky (-6)

Game 511-512: New Mexico at Cincinnati (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico 68.238; Cincinnati 72.669 Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 4 1/2; 139 Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 7; 135 Dunkel Pick: New Mexico (+7); Over

Game 513-514: Rhode Island at St. Mary's (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Rhode Island 55.156; St. Mary's 72.817 Dunkel Line: St. Mary's by 17 1/2 Vegas Line: St. Mary's by 16 Dunkel Pick: St. Mary's (-16)

Game 515-516: IPFW at IUPUI (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: IPFW 47.884; IUPUI 50.389 Dunkel Line: IUPUI by 2 1/2 Vegas Line: IUPUI by 1 Dunkel Pick: IUPUI (-1)

Game 517-518: Oakland at Western Illinois (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 51.847; Western Illinois 63.475 Dunkel Line: Western Illinois by 11 1/2 Vegas Line: Western Illinois by 6 Dunkel Pick: Western Illinois (-6)

Game 519-520: Northern Arizona at BYU (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Northern Arizona 44.452; BYU 61.856 Dunkel Line: BYU by 17 1/2 Vegas Line: BYU by 20 Dunkel Pick: Northern Arizona (+20)

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DCI College Football
The Daniel Curry Index

Week 18 Predictions

Week
Straight Up: 1-0 (1.000)
ATS: 1-0 (1.000)
ATS Vary Units: 8-0 (1.000)
Over/Under: 0-1 (.000)
Over/Under Vary Units: 0-3 (.000)

Season
Straight Up: 1047-346 (.752)
ATS: 418-395 (.514)
ATS Vary Units: 2453-2295 (.517)
Over/Under: 375-362 (.509)
Over/Under Vary Units: 1237-887 (.582)

Thursday, December 27, 2012
Military Bowl
at RFK Stadium, Washington, DC
San Jose State 26, Bowling Green State 18

Belk Bowl
at Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC
Cincinnati 35, Duke 22

Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl
at Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, CA
Baylor 51, Ucla 48

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DCI Pro Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

12/27/12 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 276-132 (.676)
ATS: 207-207 (.500)
ATS Vary Units: 671-595 (.530)
Over/Under: 213-200 (.516)
Over/Under Vary Units: 376-317 (.543)

OKLAHOMA CITY 110, Dallas 95
L.A. CLIPPERS 98, Boston 88