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Prediction Machine:
Paul's Pick: San Francisco -4 @ Atlanta (Covers 56.4%)
While it may not have looked that way for the first three quarters of the game, Seattle should have won over Atlanta on Sunday. The Seahawks turned three promising first half drives deep into Atlanta territory into zero first half points due to a Marshawn Lynch fumble, an ill-prepared fourth down attempt (spread the field, get under center, quick count, sneak the ball - every time - but if not that, Lynch should probably get the ball) and a bizarre end to the half. A furious second half comeback ultimately gave the Seahawks a lead with 31 seconds remaining. More importantly, it provided a glimpse into what should be expected in Atlanta this week.
All told, Seattle out-gained Atlanta overall (491 yards to 417 yards) and on a per-play basis (7.4 to 6.8) by significant margins and the teams were equal in turnovers. Atlanta's dominance on the ground against a very good Seahawks' defense was certainly surprising. Removing one 45-yard run by Jacquizz Rodgers that was totally uncharacteristic of what we have seen from either Rodgers or the Seattle run defense, though, gives Atlanta a reasonable, 25 carries for 122 yard day (still better than expected, yet important for context). Rookie quarterback Russell Wilson threw for 10.1 yards-per-pass and averaged 8.6 yards-per-rush.
Wilson only attempted to run the ball seven times, but he had his way on those runs and, with Atlanta playing mostly man coverage on pass plays, Wilson had open lanes to run on virtually every play. He also had an exploitable mismatch with his tight end, Zach Miller, lined up against a safety or corner. San Francisco has a better running, young quarterback, Colin Kaepernick, who just lit up a man coverage team for an all-time quarterback rushing record (181 yards) and who has two very good-to-great tight ends (Vernon Davis and Delanie Walker) of his own. Especially with the later start (noon PT instead of 10 am PT) and without the 49ers having to travel a great distance last week, look for San Francisco to start strong to build an early lead and likely not have to look back.
San Francisco is 12-4-1 straight-up and 10-6-1 against-the-spread versus the fourth toughest NFL schedule to-date. The 49ers are 5-3 SU and ATS on the road with away wins and covers over playoff teams Green Bay and New England - two teams that are better than Atlanta. As four to ten point favorites, San Francisco finished 6-3-1 ATS. Over the course of the entire season, the 49ers rank second in yards-per-play and sixth in fewest turnovers-per-play, third in (fewest) yards-per-play allowed and first (by a large differential) in yards-per-play margin. With Colin Kaepernick taking over at quarterback on November 19, those numbers have actually all improved, with Kaepernick himself accounting for 8.3 yards-per-pass and 6.6 yards-per-rush, while turning the ball over on just 1.7% of his plays. As presently constructed, San Francisco ranks among the top five in the NFL in our strength-of-schedule-adjusted running, passing, run defense and pass defense metrics. With tackle Joe Staley emerging from last week healthy enough to be considered "probable" for this game and defensive lineman Justin Smith playing well (enough) against Green Bay, the 49ers are also very healthy. They may not generate a ton of turnovers or have home field advantage, but, it is very difficult otherwise to find weaknesses with this team.
Atlanta is 14-3 SU and 9-7-1 ATS against the 22nd ranked NFL schedule for 2012-13. Head coach Mike Smith and the Falcons play incredibly disciplined football in that they rarely commit penalties or turn the ball over. Coupled with home field in this game, that is just about all that Atlanta has going for it. The Falcons will have to play something close to a perfect game and hope that San Francisco helps them out in order to win this game. Obviously, this is possible since Atlanta does win straight up 34.6% of the time in our simulations, but it is not likely. The Falcons were out-gained on a per-play basis over the course of the season (including in the playoffs last week, which was their first game against a playoff team since Week 5) despite playing an easy schedule. Teams with young, athletic quarterbacks, like Carolina with Cam Newton (twice), Seattle with Russell Wilson and even Washington with Robert Griffin III (for a half before injury) have moved the ball at will against this defense that has allowed over six yards-per-play (only four teams, including Atlanta, were that bad this season) and 4.8 yards-per-rush (just four teams were worse in 2012). While protecting the football and not committing penalties are important traits not to be ignored, Atlanta does not rank in the top five overall in any of our metrics. In fact, the Falcons are only in the top ten overall in pass efficiency.
Seattle self-destructed early last week and still almost won over Atlanta. San Francisco presents an even tougher challenge to the Falcons and is not likely to hurt itself as badly. According to 50,000 games played by the Predictalator, San Francisco wins over Atlanta 65.4% of the time and by an average score of 26.7-20.1 As four point favorites who win by almost a touchdown on average, the 49ers cover the spread 56.4% of the time, which would warrant a $42 play from a normal $50 player. The UNDER (49.5) is barely playable.
Paul's Pick: Baltimore +9.5 @ New England (Covers 54.9%)
So, these two teams already met this season. While Baltimore failed to cover a -3 spread, the Ravens did win at home over New England, 31-30. It certainly can be misleading to put much stock in one Week 3 meeting when evaluating two teams deep in the postseason, but the first game gains relevance considering the two teams have now met five times in the last four seasons. Over that stretch, the Ravens are 2-3 straight-up, yet have never lost by more than six points. In four of those five games, the game was decided in the last minute. In the other, a Wild Card round game from 2009-10 in which Joe Flacco and the Ravens were 3.5 point underdogs, Baltimore won outright, 33-14 in New England. And, as we noted last week with Houston, each of the Patriots' six losses in the postseason since their last Super Bowl has come against a team it played in the regular season.
Not only do these teams matchup well in general, not nearly as much has changed since the first matchup as may be assumed. Baltimore played without Terrell Suggs in the first game. The Ravens then lost Ray Lewis and LarDarius Webb for significant time, while Haloti Ngata clearly played hurt and the offense began to struggle. Now, Lewis is back, Suggs and Ngata are playing their best football of the season right now and, an offensive coordinator shift from Cam Cameron to Jim Caldwell, has the Ravens moving the ball well again. Weeks 7-17 may be mostly forgettable for the Ravens, but this current team looks similar enough to what we saw in Week 3 to expect Baltimore to be able to keep this competitive.
Meanwhile, New England made a deft roster move by picking up cornerback Aqib Talib, but in a situation that more than cancels out Talib's added value, tight end Rob Gronkowski reinjured his forearm and will miss this game. On the year, New England averages 0.6 fewer yards-per-play without Gronkowski on the field (as compared to with him on the field). He may not have seemed to be as integral to the team this season as he was last year, but that is a very significant and important difference. Six yards-per-play, what New England averaged in 2012-13 with Gronkowski on the field, would rank fourth in the NFL this season. Without him out there, New England averaged 5.4 yards-per-play, which would rank just 16th overall (the Patriots counter that with tempo, so I am not saying that they are an "average" offense without Rob Gronkowski, but they are much closer to average without him than with him). The perception is that New England played very well down the stretch after losing to Baltimore, yet with the re-injury to a focal point of the offense and the fact that the Patriots are still only 6-6 ATS over the last 12 weeks, the Patriots are not that much better (or worse for that matter) than they were in Baltimore.
By the numbers, Baltimore is 13-5 SU and 9-8-1 ATS against the league's 17th toughest schedule for 2012-13. The Ravens out-gained their opponents by almost a half a yard-per-play (+0.49) and, while not necessarily elite in anything, they are above average in all of our strength-of-schedule-adjusted efficiency metrics. Teams with glaring weaknesses are more likely to be blown out than solid teams that may be inferior in the matchup yet are not as easily exploited.
On the season, New England is 13-4 SU and 10-7 ATS against the 26th ranked NFL schedule. The Patriots have been greater than touchdown favorites eight times this season and have covered in just three of those games (including in Week 17 against a Miami team that had nothing to play for). The Patriots averaged the highest number of plays and points-per-game this season. However, they only out-gained opponents by 0.11 yards-per-play on the year (including the games with Gronkowski). New England's defense has been an issue even with Talib on the field. The Patriots rank sixth worst in the league in yards-per-pass allowed and only generated a sack on 6% of all opponents' drop-backs (below average - tenth worst in the league). And, while Baltimore clearly struggled against elite return man Trindon Holliday last week, the Patriots ranked as the fourth worst kickoff return team and as an NFL average punt return team. New England has the better team and is playing at home, so it should win, but recent history and improved play by the Ravens suggest 9.5 (or more) points is too many (this line opened anywhere from 7.5 to 10 and will probably close at either 8.5 or 9 - obviously, the tone of this write-up would be very different at 7.5 as we would be picking New England, but the value is just too great in Baltimore now).
In 50,000 games played of Ravens @ Patriots, New England wins 68.3% of the time and by an average score of 32.1-24.4. As 9.5 point underdogs, Baltimore covers the spread 54.9% of the time, which would justify a $26 play from a normal $50 player. With almost 57 points scored on average, the OVER (51) is actually our strongest opinion of the weekend. The OVER is now 12-4-1 in Patriots games this season (10-8 for Baltimore). In the four UNDER games for New England, the Patriots played on Miami (twice), Jacksonville and Arizona - three teams that all finished in the bottom ten of our NFL offensive team rankings. At 57.9% to cover, we are confident enough in the OVER to recommend a $58 play from a normal $50 player.
Super Bowl Odds
The Predictalator uses current rosters and strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player stats to play, one play at a time, the NFL Playoffs bracket 50,000 times before it's actually played. For this analysis, we are tracking how likely a team is to win the Super Bowl. The rest of the NFL Playoffs are played all the way through individually, with the team that wins each game in that instance advancing. The percentages in the table below represent the team's likelihood of winning the Super Bowl.
With a loss to the previous strongest team in the league, the Denver Broncos, the NFC's best, San Francisco 49ers, have jumped up to become the most likely Super Bowl champion by winning it all in 38.2% of 50,000 simulations. Going into last week, the 49ers were 17.5% likely to win the Super Bowl. While obviously looking very good in their own right on the field, San Francisco has benefited greatly from upsets elsewhere that has given the team a clearer path than expected. Getting to face Atlanta instead of Seattle (even on the road) helps the 49ers, as does the loss to the similarly well-rounded Denver Broncos, who, with their experience at quarterback and elite pass rush, would have been favored over the 49ers. Despite a slightly weaker conference championship winning percentage than New England , San Francisco edges the Patriots in the most likely Super Bowl - very important to note since New England would likely be favorites in the sports books in that game - to become our most likely current champion. With 2:1 current Super Bowl futures odds - which would require 33.3%+ confidence to play - San Francisco is a valuable Super Bowl futures wager.
After the 49ers, the New England Patriots are the second most likely Super Bowl champion. New England wins 37.7% of all simulated Super Bowls. As presently constructed and without any further injuries of note (to any team), New England would be a slight underdog to San Francisco in our projections, yet a full touchdown favorite over Atlanta if the Falcons advance. The Patriots and 49ers combine to win 75.9% of all Super Bowls. New England is currently a prohibitive 6:5 favorite to win the Super Bowl in the sports books. This would require 54.5% confidence to play - a steep price considering that there are three other teams remaining (two of which were also here at this level last year).
The Patriots are followed by the Atlanta Falcons who have a 12.3% chance to win the Super Bowl, yet would not be favored over either AFC team if they get there. That being said, given that NFC teams win 50.5% of the remaining Super Bowls, the NFC +3 for the Super Bowl as of right now looks appealing . Atlanta at 6:1 odds (requires 14.3% confidence) to win the Super Bowl, is not quite playable.
Baltimore, which has to go on the road and face a very strong team this weekend, is the least likely Super Bowl champion. The Ravens win the Super Bowl 11.9% of the time, which is still about one out of every eight simulations. Some books have Baltimore at 15:2 or 8:1 (or greater), which would each be valuable plays on Super Bowl futures odds for the Ravens. And for those still curious about an All-Harbaugh Super Bowl between the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers, that occurs 20.3% of the time. Unfortunately for John and the Ravens, San Francisco over Baltimore is only possible Super Bowl matchup that we project to be won by more than a touchdown. A Harbaugh-led team wins the Super Bowl 50.1% of the time.
Last year, at this time, an All-Harbaugh Super Bowl was 16.9% likely. Also of note from last season, no team at this time was greater than 33% or less than 20% likely to win the Super Bowl. Now, we have two teams with a better than 35% and two teams with a weaker than 15% chance to win the Super Bowl.
Super Bowl Odds (based on rest of 2013 NFL Playoffs played 50,000 times)
Team Super Bowl Win
San Francisco 49ers 38.2%
New England Patriots 37.6%
Atlanta Falcons 12.3%
Baltimore Ravens 11.9% -
ben burns main event falcons
matt fargo enforcer 49ers
nover 2* 49ersComment
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BIG AL's 78.5% ATS FALCONS/49ERS BLOWOUT WINNER -- Sunday
Al McMordie's had a terrific NFL Season, as he ranked #1 in the Regular Season on his Top Plays with the Sports Monitor (76.7%), and he's also 5-3 on all selections in the Playoffs. Here, pick up Big Al's 49ers/Falcons BLOWOUT winner, as it falls into a Super 78.5% ATS NFL Playoff System. Get on it.
Price: $25.00.....AtlComment
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DOCS SPORTS
3 Unit Play. #302 Take Under 49.5 in San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons (Sunday, 3 pm FOX) Nobody is giving the Falcons much of a chance in this game, as evidenced by the fact that the 49ers are favored on the road and the number keeps rising,. However, I expect the Falcons to have a much better plan on defense than did Green Bay. The Packers could not stop the running ability of Colin Kaepernick, but you can bet that will be the sole focus on the Falcons during this week's preparation. The 49ers have a rock-solid defense and should find things much easier this week facing Matt Ryan compared to Aaron Rogers, especially in the passing game. Therefore, the only chance that Atlanta has is to keep the ball away from San Francisco by controlling the time of possession of this game. The Falcons have gone under the posted total in 6 of their last 8 games. With all 4 games going over the posted total last week, the oddsmakers set this total too high, and we will take advantage of a favorable number.
Play the Under
4 Unit Play. #303 Take Baltimore Ravens +8 over New England Patriots (Sunday 6:30 pm CBS) The Ravens are a much more well-rounded team than the Texans are, and they actually have confidence when playing the Patriots. These two teams met earlier in the season, and the Ravens beat the Patriots in a primetime high-scoring game, and it would not surprise me if history repeats itself on Sunday yet again. Baltimore has a quarterback and wide receivers that can threaten this suspect Patriots defense. New England will be hindered on offense without Rob Gronkowski. They will still be able to move the football and score points. However, they will not be as explosive. Everybody believes that the Ravens defense is old and overrated, but I still believe when healthy they are a formidable obstacle. Remember, Denver had a kickoff return and punt return for a touchdown last week. And, for the most part, Baltimore did a good job on containing Peyton Manning, especially in the second half and overtime. Baltimore is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road playoff games. New England is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home playoff games. Take the points, as this game will be a battle for 60 minutes that goes down to the wire.
New England by 3
ALLEN EASTMAN
3-Unit Play. Take #302 Atlanta (+4) over San Francisco (3 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 20)
This play is from my NFL 411 System and this is my only play of the week. I am going to go against the public and everyone this weekend and go with the Falcons. I like the home team in this big game. And I think that no matter who wins this is going to be a close game so I will take the points. The Falcons have been undervalued all season long. They are a great home team and I think that they have a good chance to win this game. San Francisco lost two of its last three road games. And they almost blew their game at New England and that would've been three losses in a row on the road. I think that Atlanta is going to be able to move the ball against San Francisco's defense. The Falcons have an excellent passing game and it will be tough to keep them out of the end zone. Atlanta won eight of nine home games this year and the only loss was in Week 17 when the Falcons didn't have anything to play for. I think that they are good enough to win this game. The public is all over San Fran but I am going to have my money on the other side. Take the points.Comment
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BIG AL's 100% PERFECT NEW ENGLAND/BALTIMORE WINNER -- Sunday
Al McMordie was 3-1 in the Playoffs last week (5-3 in the Playoffs, overall), and has had a terrific NFL campaign this year (including 76.7% on his NFL Reg. Season Top Plays, which ranked #1 with the Sports Monitor). Now, in the game between Baltimore & New England, get Big Al's AFC Championship WINNER out of a 100% PERFECT Playoff System!
Price: $25.00.............PATSComment
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CHARLES COVERS
1000* San Francisco / Baltimore NFL parlay.Comment
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Robert Ferringo
2-Unit Play. Take #303 Baltimore (+8.5) over New England (6:30 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 20)
1-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 51.5 Baltimore at New England (6:30 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 20)Comment
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Indian Cowboy
4-Unit Play #301 Take San Francisco/Atlanta UNDER 49 (Sunday @ 3pm est)
4-Unit Play #303 Take Baltimore/New England UNDER 51.5 (Saturday @ 6:30pm est)Comment
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Wunderdog
San Francisco at Atlanta
Pick: San Francisco -3
The Falcons finished with the best record in the NFC at 13-3 and disposed of one of the hottest teams in the NFL last week. But, there are still a lot of question marks with this team. All three of their opponents in the NFC South finished below .500, so they had six divisional games against below .500 teams. Their schedule saw them facing the AFC West which had three of the four teams below .500 as well. The only AFC West team they played with a winning record was Denver in week two, before Peyton Manning got his sea-legs under him. The Falcons went through the last 11 games of their schedule without playing a single team that made the playoffs. The path for this team to get here was as easy as it gets. Does that mean they are a total fraud? No. This is a solid team and at home they are very good. They beat the Seattle Seahawks last week to get here. Seattle is a great team, but also one that was playing on the opposite coast for the second straight week and that clearly made the difference last week as they fell behind 20-0. Once Seattle showed up, they handily beat the Falcons. San Francisco is a lot like Seattle, but they aren't as road weary, and they have more experience. It's hard to imagine San Francisco putting up a dead half like Seattle did last week and if they don't Atlanta is going to have their hands full. The 49ers are on a mission after coming so close last year, so I expect them to finish the job here in Atlanta. Teams that come close and fail one year are very focused the next. While Russell Wilson had his way, picking his spots for 60 yards on just seven carries, the San Francisco offense is geared toward giving another great running QB an opportunity to make plays. Since the insertion of Colin Kaepernick, the Niners’ offense has gone from good, at 23.6 points per game to elite at 28.1 ppg. When you couple that with a defense that ranks #2 in fewest points allowed, it will be the most complete team Atlanta has faced all season - and a far cry from the type of talent they played most of the season. The Niners have been playing above the line for just about three years now at 24-11-1 ATS in their last 36, while the Falcons are 0-5 ATS in their last five playoffs games. Since Harbaugh took over, the Niners have stepped up their game vs. the best teams, going a perfect 7-0 ATS vs. teams at .750 or better. Take the Niners here (buy to -3).Comment
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Sports Reporter.......SUNDAY, JANUARY 20
*NEW ENGLAND over BALTIMORE by 7*
And for the first time since last season, these two teams meet in the AFC Cham-*
pionship Game! (Ha-ha, funny announcer joke there). These perpetual playoff per-*
formers have met six times since December 2007, and the final margins of those*
games, starting with the most recent, have been: 1, 3 in OT, 3 in OT, 19, 6 and 3.*
In those six games, the Ravens have totaled more points than the Patriots, 148-*
144. The 19-point win was theirs, on this field, in the post-season. But in the six*
games, New England is 4-2 SU and (3-3 ATS). If you have a good memory, you’ll*
remember that the Pats were favored by -20.5 against the Ravens in 2007, New*
England’s undefeated regular season, but won the game only 27-24 late. Aside*
from that game, the other four spreads have been 7.5 once, 2.5 or 3 four times,*
with New England favored four times. The Patriots’ three wins against Baltimore*
in these six games have been by 3, 3, 6 and 3 points. Last year, then-Baltimore*
place-kicker Billy Cundiff missed a 32-yard field goal that would have tied the AFC*
Championship Game at the end of regulation, after the Ravens had dropped a pass*
in the end zone. In other words, New England was lucky to escape this field with a*
win last season. In a Week 3 meeting this season, the Patriots were the +2.5 road*
underdog. In that game, the Pats were the team that got screwed by the refs (for*
a change, as far as Baltimore is concerned) and the Ravens kicked a last-second*
field goal to win. If the Week 3 game had been played at New England, the Pats*
would have been a -3.5 favorite.*
Yet here is New England favored by the same 9.5 point margin they were favored*
by last Sunday against namby-pamby Houston (who we liked at that number and*
did not win with), a squad that lacked the long-term emotional fire, physicality and*
tenaciousness that these Ravens have consistently displayed.*
So, it’s almost one of those deals where people might say, “Hey, d’ere beggin’ ya*
ta take Bawltimore here!” But Bookmakers don’t beg anybody to take anything.*
They set numbers that they figure will attract equal amounts of side action, people*
bet, and they adjust if necessary.* An analysis of this season’s meeting shows that*
Baltimore – with recently fired Cam Cameron still the offensive coordinator – was*
not afraid to get involved in a shootout. Joe Flacco threw 39 times and the offense*
rushed only 26 times. The Ravens’ run-pass yardage splits were 382-121 (yes,*
they totaled 500+ yards of offense against the Patriots in Week 3). Joe Flacco*
threw for 9.8 yards per attempt, which is an interesting number, and we’ll tell*
you why: His YPA for the season was 7.2. Tom Brady’s YPA for that game was*
8.2, and it was 7.7 for the season. Last week at Denver, Flacco’s YPA was 9.5. If*
Flacco is having a breakthrough period and on the verge of another 9+ YPA game*
of big plays, then, of course, Baltimore will be ‘right there’ in the final minutes.*
The Patriots had a negative YPA differential this season, which means that for all*
the passing yards racked up by Tom Brady and the receivers, opponents got more*
passing yards against their defense. However, part of that particular stat is that*
New England often led by margins that forced opponents to throw a lot. In fact,*
New England led the Week 3 game 13-0 at the end of the first quarter, which im-*
mediately put the Ravens into “chase via pass mode.” But you know what? New*
England also trailed 31-3 on this field to the physical, run-based, pass-blossoming*
49ers team coached by Baltimore coach John Harbaugh’s older brother Jim. You*
knock the Patriots in the mouth and on their butts coming out of the gate, and they*
might win the game, but not by a lot. Via the same formula from last week, New*
England is overvalued by 4 points if Baltimore can play them even in TO Margin,*
by 1 point if the Ravens can hold it to -1. Ravens’ defensive coordinator Dean Pees*
is a key unseen guy here. He was the former Patriots’ DC from 2006-’09 before*
joining the Baltimore staff in 2010. He’s happy that TE Rob Gronkowski will be out,*
but it’s not like the Patriots’ offense has ever been stone-cold without the guy.*
NEW ENGLAND, 34-27.*
RECOMMENDED*
SAN FRANCISCO over *ATLANTA by 13*
Hey, the New York Giants beat Green Bay by 28, and San Francisco by 23 (they*
didn’t make the playoffs). San Francisco beat Green Bay by 8, then by 14. Atlanta*
beat the New York Giants by 34! Does that mean that Atlanta – the home underdog*
-- should blow the 49ers out of the Georgia Dome? On the surface, playing it the*
way of the ol’ common-opponent game would make it seem like that should hap-*
pen. But the game isn’t played on a theoretical surface based on past scores. It’s*
played on a field with about 120 collisions per game.*
We are going to have to follow something that has been stated in Sports Reporter*
on multiple occasions this season: if the home underdog doesn’t have the bet-*
ter defense, then we’re not too hot for the home underdog. The Atlanta Falcons*
defense had a nice year – only 19.2 ppg allowed in the regular season. But the*
San Francisco 49ers allowed only 17.9 ppg in the regular season, and only 4.7*
yards per play vs. Atlanta’s average defensive yield of 5.9 yards per play. When*
the road favorite has a good running game and the better defense, then the road*
favorite has an opportunity for an impressive win, because the road favorite can*
run the ball to keep it out of the hands of the opposing offense, before their bet-*
ter defense has opportunities to make that key stop or two against the home*
offense that helps them maintain their scoreboard margin. San Francisco had a*
pretty good running game before Colin Kaepernick became a terrorizing runner*
from the quarterback position. Remember Frank Gore? He’s still back there. If*
Atlanta takes a long, hard look at what Green Bay failed to do in defensive contain-*
ment last Saturday against the 49ers’ zone-read, they should limit Kaepernick’s*
rushing yardage. But San Francisco has other weapons, Gore being one of them,*
and the guy is a pretty good pass-blocker, too. The Falcons have some small-*
ish, ball-hawking defensive backs who are overmatched physically against the*
49ers receivers Michael Crabtree, Vernon Davis and Randy Moss. It’s similar to*
the physical mismatches we feared existed between the 49ers’ receivers and the*
Packers’ secondary, which we thought Green Bay could overcome with a Pick-6.*
They got one on the first drive! And still lost by 14 points. Not fun to be right, right*
away, and still be wrong in the end. It takes a pretty good team to come back from*
in-game deficits against a good pass offense like Green Bay’s, twice, and open up*
a 21-point margin in the fourth quarter.*
The stadium crew hasn’t been able to awaken Packers’ defensive coordinator*
Dom (ZZzzzzz) Capers from his deep sleep in the San Francisco booth. Atlanta*
DC Mike Nolan is probably more alert and willing to adjust to the relatively new*
uniqueness of the 49ers’ awesomeness zipping out of the backfield with the ball.*
However, in the Falcons’ experiences against mobile quarterbacks this season,*
there is reason to doubt them. Russell Wilson is coming off a career game against*
them -- 385 passing yards, seven rushes for 60 yards. Cam Newton of Carolina*
ran nine times for 86 yards in Week 3 against them, then in Week 14 had nine*
carries for 116 yards. Robert Griffin III ran the ball only one time against them, so*
it can’t be said that Atlanta shut him down. Atlanta defensive end John Abraham*
seems like an excellent candidate to be trapped into barreling inside for Kae-*
pernick to run around him. That’s if Abraham plays. He didn’t in the second half*
against Seattle, and Seattle outscored the Falcons 28-10 in those two quarters.*
Hello. Meanwhile, Matt (33-6 at home) Ryan and the Falcons’ lined up against*
many 3-4 defenses this season, but when they did: Kansas City’s was injured like*
crazy on opening day; San Diego’s offense turned it over 4 times to their defense*
in that game’s key thing; the Falcons had only 7 points after three quarters at*
Washington; the Falcons totaled only 19 total points against Dallas; Ryan threw 5*
interceptions against Arizona. The 49ers’ defense is better than all of them.
SAN*FRANCISCO, 34-21.Comment
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Winning Points*
San Francisco over *Atlanta by 10*
Maybe the Falcons think they’ve erased their embarrassing 0-3 playoff stigma in*
the Mike Smith/Matt Ryan era. We don’t. Thanks only to the big leg of Matt*
Bryant, the Falcons survived blowing a 20-point fourth-quarter lead at HOME to*
a tired Seattle team. The Falcons had problems containing Russell Wilson. Wait*
until they get a look at Colin Kaepernick, who rushed for an NFL-record 181*
yards against Green Bay and threw two touchdowns while displaying a strong and*
accurate touch. The Falcons may be without their best pass rusher, too, as John*
Abraham reinjured his ailing right ankle. Atlanta is soft. The Falcons proved it*
again only getting bailed out by their kicker from turning in one of the greatest*
choke jobs. Atlanta played the league’s easiest schedule winning 13 games versus*
foes with a .422 winning percentage. All of their games inside Georgia Dome*
except one were decided by six points or fewer. Seattle was just the third playoff*
team the Falcons faced all season. The other two were Denver in Week 2 before*
the Broncos began playing their best ball and Washington in Week 6 when the*
Redskins were in the process of opening 3-6. The Falcons had to struggle to win*
both of those games nearly blowing a 27-0 lead against Denver before winning 27-*
21 and defeating Washington, 24-17, by scoring a touchdown with 2:46 left. The*
49ers have the hardest hitting defense in the league. San Francisco allowed 17.1*
points per game, second-stingiest in the NFL. The 49ers ranked in the top four in*
total defense, pass defense and rushing defense. The 49ers did that against stronger*
competition having taken on playoff teams Green Bay, Minnesota, Seattle twice*
and New England. The 49ers surrendered 143 yards per game in the five games*
they lost. Atlanta, though, doesn’t run the ball well. Michael Turner is past his*
prime and Jacquizz Rodgers is one of the slowest running backs in the league. San*
Francisco’s star run-stuffer Justin Smith showed against Green Bay that he could*
play effectively despite a torn triceps muscle by being in on five tackles despite*
often getting double-teamed. The 49ers recorded 33 of their 38 sacks during the*
regular season when Smith was in the lineup. Opposing quarterbacks had just a*
73.5 rating when Smith was playing compared to 93 when he was out for three*
games. Thanks to Kaepernick, the 49ers’ offense has gone from dull to dynamic.*
Frank Gore still has plenty left, Michael Crabtree has emerged as a legitimate No.*
1 receiver and tight end Vernon Davis must be respected. Atlanta has problems*
stopping the run giving up 4.8 yards a carry. This bodes well for Gore. San*
Francisco has nine Pro Bowl selections. The Falcons had three. The 49ers played*
last Saturday giving them an extra day of rest, crucial this late in the season. The*
matchup is set for 3 p.m., which isn’t an early starting time for the West Coast*
49ers. In the previous three seasons, five of the last six teams that won on Saturday*
of the divisional round won the following week to reach the Super Bowl. It’s a*
reflection of what the oddsmaker thinks about the Falcons that he makes them an*
underdog despite having home field. But is the Falcons’ home field edge really that*
strong? The Falcons are second to New England during the past five years in home*
victories with 34. Yet this season, they averaged 24.5 points at Georgia Dome*
compared to 27.9 on the road. Ryan completed 71.9 percent of his throws away*
compared to 65.1 percent at home with 21 touchdown passes on the road to 11*
at home during the regular season. Ryan’s home quarterback rating was 86. It was*
111 away. The Falcons had negative net yards per play at home. The 49ers have*
the much stronger defense and their offense is peaking. SAN FRANCICO 30-20.*
*New England over Baltimore by 14*
The gauntlet is too much for the Ravens to upset Peyton Manning and Tom Brady*
in successive weeks. Maybe if the Baltimore defense was still in its prime it could*
happen, but the Ravens are too crippled up and going against one of the finest ver-*
satile offenses of its generation. So there’s no Rob Gronkowski and maybe no*
Danny Woodhead for New England. That’s not a big deal for Tom Brady. He still*
has other top receiving targets, including Wes Welker and Aaron Hernandez, along*
with other good running backs. The Patriots’ offense is very deep. It can run effec-*
tively with Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen and Brady, of course, can pass it*
around. Ridley was the seventh-leading rusher in the NFL with 1,263 yards. This*
was 120 yards more than what the more heralded Ray Rice picked up on the*
ground. The Ravens should have forced New England into overtime, if not won,*
in last year’s AFC title matchup, but Lee Evans dropped a touchdown pass and*
Billy Cundiff missed a field goal at the end allowing the Patriots to escape with a*
23-30 home win. The Ravens got a token of revenge in Week 3 when they nipped*
the Patriots, 31-30, at M&T Stadium failing to cover, though, as short chalk. New*
England has gotten much better since then and the Ravens have regressed. The*
Patriots have won 10 of their last 11. Their average win margin during their past*
nine victories is 21.3 points. Since that first meeting against New England,*
Baltimore has lost several key defensive players, while others are far from 100 per-*
cent. The Ravens are 2-4 in their last six games. Kudos to them for upsetting*
Denver on the road last week in double overtime. That’s only one game, though,*
and the victory raises questions about how much the Ravens have left in the tank*
playing in their third road game in four weeks and if their special teams coverage*
units are vulnerable after giving up two return touchdowns. Joe Flacco played well*
against Denver. Flacco does not have a good road history, however. Neither do the*
Ravens who are just 8-10 SU in their past 18 road matchups. Flacco had a 15-to-*
5 touchdown-to-interception ratio at home while averaging 8.3 yards per pass*
attempt. Those numbers shrunk to 7-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio on the*
road and 5.9 yards per pass attempt. The Ravens lost this season on the road to the*
Eagles and Texans by 30. The Patriots were 2-0 versus Houston beating the Texans*
by a combined 41 points. Baltimore had the third-worst offense on the road. The*
Ravens averaged 17.6 points in regulation during their eight regular-season away*
games. That’s not going to cut it against a New England offense that ranked first*
in points at 34.8 per game and No. 1 in total yards at 427.9. The Patriots have*
scored at least 34 points in seven of their last 10 games. The Ravens haven’t been*
able to slow down a playoff offense all season except the Colts surrendering 30*
points to the Patriots, 43 to the Texans, 31 to the Redskins, 34 and 35 to the*
Broncos. Ray Lewis might not admit it, but his team’s defense is far from elite. So,*
the Ravens are going to have to keep up with the Patriots offensively. Baltimore’s*
offensive line played well last week, especially tackles Bryant McKinnie and*
Michael Oher. New England’s defense, fortified by an excellent rookie class, has*
improved. The Patriots ranked in the top 10 in run defense and in fewest points*
allowed holding foes to an average of 20.7 per game. The Ravens have done well*
reaching the AFC championship game for the second consecutive season, the first*
time they’ve achieved that in franchise history. But that’s as far as a battered*
defense and mediocre road offense can carry them against a great offense and solid*
defense. NEW ENGLAND 34-20. *Comment
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Dave Tuley.......sharps vs squares
Matchup:*San Francisco 49ers*at*Atlanta Falcons
Spread:*49ers minus-4
Public consensus pick:*63 percent picked 49ers
Public perception:*The public loves to bet what they last saw, and their last remembrances of the NFC divisional playoff games were the 49ers running all over the Packers and the Falcons nearly snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. PickCenter has more than 60 percent of the public on the 49ers, and that's consistent with other bet-tracking sites. The 49ers are favored despite Atlanta being 8-1 straight up at home this year, with the only loss being in Week 17, when the Falcons had their No. 1 seed locked up*(and 33-6 SU with Matt Ryan as the starter). They continue to be the most disrespected No. 1 seed in recent memory.
Wiseguys' view:*The wiseguys also jumped all over the 49ers when betting opened up Sunday afternoon while the Falcons' game was still in progress, but keep in mind that that was when lines from 49ers minus-1 to minus-2.5 were available. After the Falcons rallied on Matt Bryant's late field goal, most books were at minus-3 and were quickly bet to minus-3.5. That's where sharp bettors stopped (as no wiseguy worth his salt is going to lay more than a field goal when they could have gotten it lower no matter how much they like the team). It was the public that continued to push it higher as it peaked at several books at minus-4.5 (and some "square shops" at minus-5) before drifting back down. There's no doubt that several sharp bettors are holding tickets on 49ers minus-2.5 (or lower) and Falcons plus-4.5 and hoping for a middle to win both.
Tuley's Take:*I really thought this line would come with the Falcons as a slight home favorite or pick-em, so I certainly see value in the Falcons getting more than a field goal at home. Home underdogs are 22-11 ATS in the NFL playoffs (and, in fact, 20-13 straight up) under the current playoff format, and that includes the loss by the*Washington Redskins*in the wild-card round against the Seahawks. I believe the 49ers are going to get their points, and in watching last week's game it scared me when I saw the Atlanta defense flying to*Marshawn Lynch*on read-option plays --*Russell Wilson*could have had a lot more rushing yards. Hopefully they see the same thing on film, correct that and keep backside containment, or*Colin Kaepernick*will have a field day.
The key for me is if the Falcons can match them score-for-score. The 49ers' defense is very good, but in today's NFL that's not as much of a guarantee of success as it once was with all the rules favoring the offense. If the Falcons execute like they did in the first half against the Seahawks (another very good defense), they'll live up to their No. 1 seed and exceed people's expectations. If they don't execute, they'll get run out of the building. I'm counting on the former (and just pray they don't play too conservatively if they get the lead again).*The pick:*Falcons.
Matchup:*Baltimore Ravens*at*New England Patriots
Spread:*Patriots minus-9.5
Public consensus pick:*56 percent picked Ravens
Public perception:*The public is on the underdog Ravens for many reasons. For one, the oddmakers know that there's a segment of the public that will back the Patriots at any price, so they posted the line high to balance the books. There are also those who believe in the "Ray Lewis*farewell tour" and that they're going to put forth their best effort for their retiring leader. Besides, you don't have to be a wiseguy to know that the Ravens have played the Patriots tough over the years, including beating them 31-30 back in Week 3 and covering and nearly beating them (if not for a*Lee Evans*drop) in the AFC title game just last year at New England. None of the teams' past six meetings have been decided by more than six points, so taking more than a TD makes sense.
Wiseguys' view:*There are also many sharps on the Baltimore side, though they were hoping the public would push the line to minus-10. It's not as much due to the Ravens' matching up well with the Patriots as it is that the Pats aren't as dominant as many believe them to be. New England is 2-7 ATS in its past nine games as playoff favorites (and one of those was last week's 41-28 cover against the Texans as 9.5-point favorites, though the back door was open if Houston had acted with more of a sense of urgency on its final drive).
Tuley's Take:*As a contrarian* bettor, it does give me pause when it appears that*everyone*is on the same side. Obviously, the Ravens match up with the Patriots based on recent history and these teams know each other very well. That should result in a close game. The concerns are that the Patriots are 4-0 SU at home in AFC title games. So just like last year, it's tough to go into Foxboro and win, plus the Pats don't take the foot off the gas and are very capable of tacking on that extra score to cover the number (which is why bettors love them so much!), but anything over a touchdown has to be a take.*The pick:*Ravens.Comment
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Burns Write Up
I'm playing on ATLANTA. Last week, Russell Wilson and the Seahawks were the talk of the town. This week, its Colin Kaepernick and the 49'ers who are all the rage. I feel that they're over-valued.
While they've had an extra day in between games, the 49'ers are still a West Coast team playing on the East Coast. While he may indeed be pretty "special," Kaeparnick is still a rookie making his first playoff road start.
While they are obviously a very talented team, I've found that every time that the 49'ers start winning a couple in a row, everyone wants to start handing them the Super Bowl. More often than not, that's when they've stumbled. (They were just 2-5 ATS and 2-4-1 SU after two straight wins.)
Many aren't giving the Falcons any credit for last week's win. They only see a team which nearly blew it and can't get over Atlanta's past postseason failures. I see a team which jumped all over a very opponent and a team which had the poise to come back and win, when it really mattered. I also see a team which exorcised some demons by earning that elusive playoff win.
Last week, I said the Falcons were being "disrespected," as they were barely favored against Seattle. This week, they're getting more than a field goal against the 49'ers, a team which was recently destroyed (42-13) by the Seahawks. Needless to say, I feel that the #1 seed is again being dis-respected.
Seemingly tired of being "disrespected," the Falcons were 3-0 ATS as underdogs (or in pick'em games) this season. All three of those resulted in outright victories. In fact, the Falcons didn't just win, they crushed those opponents.
When getting three points at San Diego, they won 27-3. When getting three points at Philadelphia, they won 30-17. Then, when listed at pick'em here at home against the Giants, the Falcons won by a score of 34-0. That's a combined score of 91-20 in the Falcons' favor, in the three games when they weren't favored.
The Falcons are 21-5 here the past few years, including 8-1 here this season. I'll happily take the points but expect them to win outright. *10 nfc main eventComment
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Gill Alexander
3* Baltimore +9
2* San Fran -4.5Comment
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