1-20-13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Football Jesus Text for sunday : Falcons + points

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wayne Root
Pinnacle falcons
millionaire patriots

[Can'tPickAWinner]

New England Patriots vs. Baltimore Ravens
Point Spread - Pick

Baltimore Ravens (12-6 SU, 8-9-1 ATS) vs. New England Patriots (13-4 SU, 10-7 ATS)
2013 AFC Championship Game
Date/Time: Sunday, January 20th, 2013, 6:30 p.m. EST
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Mass.
TV: CBS
by Badger, Football Handicapper.

Point Spread: Bal +9/NE -9
Over/Under Total: 51.5

After a long summer of OTA's, 17 weeks of a regular season and two weeks of playoff football we're right back to where we all started … with the Baltimore Ravens playing the New England Patriots for the second consecutive season in the AFC Championship game this Sunday in Gillette Stadium.

Sunday's game will be a rematch of last year's AFC title game where the Ravens came a dropped touchdown pass, then a shanked field goal away from making it to last year's Super Bowl. It will also be a rematch of a week three game this season that saw the Ravens get a crumb of redemption back from the Patriots with a slim victory at home in Baltimore, 31-30.

Baltimore is back in this year's AFC Championship after pulling off the upset of the 2013 playoff season in last week's double-overtime stunner in Denver, 38-35. The Ravens pulled off the upset (closed as 10-point underdogs at some sportsbooks) when Jacoby Jones inexplicably got behind the Broncos defense for a game-tying 70-yard touchdown pass with 31 seconds left in regulation, then nailed the Broncos coffin shut with an interception of Peyton Manning and a 47-yard field goal by rookie kicker Justin Tucker early in the second overtime period.

New England earned the right to defend their AFC title when they dispatched the Houston Texans in the Divisional round last Sunday, 41-28. The Patriots overcame a momentum-swinging opening kickoff return by the Texans to take back control of the game and never let go, as Tom Brady threw for 344 yards and three scores to give New England their second straight title game appearance and fifth overall since the 2001-02 season.

Oddsmakers originally set the opening point spread for Sunday's AFC title rematch with New England as large 9.5-point favorites at home, but with the most of the early money raining down on the Ravens (up to 75-80 % at some online sportsbooks) the number has come down the hook to minus -9 at most sportsbooks on the Web and most of the properties out in Las Vegas.

The over/under total opened at 51.5 and has yet to move in either direction at most books, although if you look really hard you may find a token 51 or even a 52 at sportsbooks willing to put the push result back in play.

When breaking down this game offensively you really have one team's approach that is well known, and one that is sort of a mystery.

You pretty much know exactly what you're going to get with New England and Brady, even though the Patriots will be missing one of their biggest offensive weapons in tight end Rob Gronkowski (re-broke his forearm vs. Houston) throughout the rest of the playoffs. New England just plugs in players like backup running back Shane Vereen (three TDs vs. Texans) for Gronk, keeps defenses on the field with their "hurry-up" attack, and let's Brady make the adjustments and calls at the line of scrimmage to take advantage of what the defense gives them in mismatches.

Baltimore's defense has played well in the playoffs with their leader Ray Lewis back in the middle calling the plays, but with a limited pass rush due to nagging injuries to their best two rushers (Terrell Suggs on the edge, Haloti Ngata inside), and a secondary missing their best cover corner (Lardarius Webb) it could turn into a long day for the Ravens against the surgical-like Brady.

The Ravens best defense against Brady and New England might be their resurgent offense, which has come back to life in the postseason. Baltimore has averaged 459 yards and 31 points a game in their two playoff wins, with most of the credit due to a reworked offensive line that now features veteran Bryant McKinnie back at left tackle and Michael Oher flipped over to right tackle. Last week the Ravens ran the ball 39 times behind that "new" offensive line against a stiff Denver run defense, an approach they'll likely try and repeat on Sunday to try and keep the chains moving and keep Brady standing on the sideline.

Baltimore will also take their shots down the field to receiver Torrey Smith, who had another breakout game against Champ Bailey and the Broncos last weekend. Smith will likely draw Patriots corner Aquib Talib on most plays, a matchup the Ravens have to like despite the fact Talib has played very well since joining the Pats at the trading deadline. Smith had 127 yards and two scores for the Ravens in their week three win this season, and Flacco threw for 382 yards and three scores in that game as well, so Baltimore can't be afraid to stay aggressive in order to reverse the results of last year's title-game loss.

In last year's AFC Championship game the Ravens followed the script and held a six-minute advantage in time of possession, they just weren't able to overcome the Patriots second-half adjustments. Baltimore also lost the battle of field position throughout most of the second half, giving up twice as many return yards as they had in the game. Considering the Ravens also gave up two returns for touchdowns last week against the Broncos, the handful of special teams plays in this game will be crucial for the Ravens to change their fate this season as well.

Last year's gave closed with Baltimore as 7-point underdogs at home, so the big number shouldn't automatically scare away bettors from a wager on the Ravens. Baltimore is also a perfect 2-0 ATS this year in the playoffs, 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road playoff games, and the underdog and road team is a solid 3-0-1 ATS the last four times these two teams have met on the gridiron. New England is only 2-7 ATS in their last nine home playoff games, so there's plenty of betting trends and reasons why most of the early money has been siding with the visiting Ravens.

After the Wild Card round of the playoffs saw all four games stay under the total, the Divisional round went the other way with all four games flying over the total. As a whole the under is 5-2 in the last seven head-to-head meetings in Gillette Stadium. The under is also 5-2 in Baltimore's last seven playoff games as well, but the over is 7-1 in New England's last eight games played in January.

Badger's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: The return of Ray Lewis has been a great story and has surely inspired the Ravens. Winning at Denver was incredible as the Broncos were red hot. I'm still not sold on Joe Flacco on the road though. I also believe that New England is hitting their stride and peaking at the right time. The public is one siding the Ravens to the tune of 72% and the line has barely moved but a half point. When it comes to sports betting and lines, it could be said that if something looks too good to be true, it is!
I'm laying the wood with the Patriots here in what I believe will be 14+ point margin.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

San Francisco 49ers vs. Atlanta Falcons
Point Spread - Pick

San Francisco 49ers (12-4-1 SU, 10-7 ATS) vs. Atlanta Falcons (14-3 SU, 9-7-1 ATS)
2013 NFC Championship Game
Date/Time: Sunday, January 20th, 2013, 3:00 p.m. EST
Where: Georgia Dome, Atlanta, Ga.
TV: FOX
by Badger, Football Handicapper.

Point Spread: SF -4/ATL +4
Over/Under Total: 48.5

For the second consecutive season the San Francisco 49ers will play in the NFC Championship game, but this year they will have to go on the road to do it when they face the Atlanta Falcons in the Georgia Dome Sunday afternoon on Fox with the winner getting a shot at the National Football League's ultimate prize, Super Bowl 47.

The 49ers emerged out of the Divisional round of the playoffs as the clear team to beat by virtue of their, 45-31, victory over the Green Bay Packers last Saturday. Young stating quarterback Colin Kaepernick threw an interception that was returned for a touchdown on the 49ers very first series of the game, but that was the last time he and the Niners would look bad as Kaepernick racked up 444 total yards and four touchdowns and San Francisco scored on six of their last eight possessions in the game in the impressive win.

Now the 49ers will face an Atlanta team that won the most exciting game of the NFL's postseason thus far when they slipped past the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday, 30-28.

After watching the Seahawks take a 28-27 lead with just 31 seconds remaining in the game, Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan moved the team 41 yards in two plays to set up kicker Matt Bryant's game-winning 49-yard field goal. Not only did Ryan's last-second heroics help to save the Falcons, who blew a 20-point lead in the second half, but it also got the monkey off the back of Ryan and head coach Mike Smith who both notched their first playoff win and put the Falcons back in the NFC Championship game for the third time in franchise history and first time since the "Dirty Birds" team of 1999.

With San Francisco looking virtually unstoppable and the Falcons getting into the title game by the skin of their teeth, oddsmakers were forced to open Sunday's NFC Championship game with the 49ers as 3-point favorites on the road. With most of the betting public clearly siding with the 49ers in the early going, the number has gone up to minus -4 or even -4.5 at most online sportsbooks after just a little over 24 hours of the point spread going live up on the board.

The over/under total has also seen its fair share of line movement as well, opening at 47.5 late on Sunday and moving up a full point to 48.5 at most sportsbooks, with a few rising as high as 49.5 before the run on the over was stopped.

The total has gone up quickly in part because Sunday's NFC title game figures to be a rather offensive one. Both teams combined for nearly 1,000 yards of total offense in the Divisional round (SF - 579, Atl. - 417), both teams combined for huge numbers in the running game (SF 7.5 yards per carry; Atl. 6.4 ypc) and both teams are stacked to the Georgia Dome roof with weapons on offense to make Sunday's game look like a potential shootout.

But if one team holds an edge on offense it has to be the 49ers, who with Kaepernick behind center, will feature his duel-threat capabilities on offense and make the Falcons defense work extra hard to stop this Sunday. If stopping running back Frank Gore behind the 49ers powerful offensive line wasn't hard enough already (Gore has 23-for-119, TD vs. GB), as soon as the defense falls asleep on the edge Kaepernick keeps it and has the speed to take huge gouges out of a defense with his legs.

Then when a defense starts creeping an extra safety down into the box to limit the Niners run game, Kaepernick has plenty enough arm to find his favorite target Michael Crabtree on the edge and over the middle behind the linebackers to keep defenses honest and move the 49ers down the field with ease. The Falcons defense did a great job of limiting the damage of Marshawn Lynch and the Seahawks running game last week (46 yards on 16 carries), but they often lost contain on quarterback Russell Wilson (7 carries for 60 yards), which is a problem they must fix this week if they want any chance at stopping Kaepernick and the Niners.

That's going to put huge pressure on Atlanta defensive ends John Abraham, Jonathan Babineaux and Kory Biermann this week. Abraham reinjured his ankle in the Divisional game too, and is listed as probable for Sunday's game even though he spent the latter half of the previous game sitting on his helmet on the sidelines.

Atlanta and Ryan received a huge lift from Jacquizz Rodgers in last week's win over Seattle, as the second-year back offers a great change of pace to starter Michael Turner (14 carries, 98 yards) in the Falcon running game. But with Julio Jones, Roddy White and veteran Tony Gonzales consistently finding holes and seams in the defensive secondary, it's no secret that the Falcons prefer to attack teams with Ryan throwing the ball as much as possible.

Green Bay had their best success against the Niners defense early in the game when they were consistent with running the ball, and with 49ers end Justin Smith clearly limited with his triceps injury the San Francisco pass rush was very limited last weekend as well. So look for the Falcons to continue with that theme and pound the ball on early downs to get ahead of the chains, then take shots down the field with Jones, Gonzales and White when the Niners defense is on their heels.

These two NFC teams haven't met on the field since the 2010 season, in what ended up a 16-14 Falcons win at home in the Georgia Dome in early October. That game was highlighted by a game-changing play by Roddy White, who came back after a Ryan interception to strip Nate Clemons of the ball as Clemons was about to go into the end zone. The Falcons took the turnover back down the field and kicked the game-winning field goal with two seconds left in the contest.

White's play helped the Falcons beat the 49ers for the fourth time in a row (4-0 SU since 2004), as Atlanta has enjoyed a 6-4 SU record over San Francisco over the years including a 4-1 Su mark at home in the Dome.

The betting trends are mixed, but it should be noted that the underdog is a strong 9-3 ATS in the series between these two teams in the last 12 meetings. However, Atlanta is just 1-4 ATS in their last five home playoff games (0-5 ATS in last five playoff games overall), while San Francisco is 5-2 ATS in their last seven games in January and 4-1 ATS in their last five road games versus a team with a winning record.

Badger's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I like the Niners to win by a touchdown or more. Atlanta's lack of run stopping makes this a really bad matchup for them. Once the defense is forced to respect the run, it'll open up the pass and this is a big problem for the Dirty Birds. Then factor in the wild card that Kaepernick will tuck it and run, and you've got chaos.
I'm betting the SF 49ers minus the points.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

POINTWISE

CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP
SAN FRANCISCO (12-4-1) at ATLANTA (14-3)
SUNDAY, JANUARY 20 -- 3:00 PM EST -- FOX TELEVISION
VEGAS LINE: SAN FRANCISCO BY 3½ -- OVER/UNDER: 48

Well, it took awhile, 9 years to be exact, but the Falcons have at last, tasted their
1st playoff success since taking the measure of the Rams, 47-17, in '04. As has
been their misfortune, they've been current playoff flops, losing to the Packers &
Giants ('10 & '11), by a combined 72-23 score (minus 48 pts ATS). But it sure
wasn't easy, as they blew all of a 20-pt 4th quarter lead, moving 41 yds on 3 plays
for the winning 47-yd FG in the final 0:08 vs the Seahawks, then withstanding a
near miraculous upset. That avoided what would have been the largest 4th quarter
collapse in playoff history. Ryan is at his best in pressure situations, & is 35/16 for
the year. And how about a season-high 167 RYs, behind Turner & Rodgers (6.75
ypr)? But despite the fact that they own the best record of all remaining playoff
squads, they stand at just 24th in total "D", which may offset the fact that they've
topped 22 pts in 23 of their last 28 games. But will it be enough vs the absolutely
spectacular Niners, who turned a 24-24 game in the 3rd quarter, vs the Packers,
into a 45-24 lead just 19 minutes later? The scintillating Kaepernick set a playoff
rushing record for QBs with 181 yds (11.3 ypr), including the longest TD run (56
yds) by a QB in SanFran history. Oh, the old playoff record was 119 yds (Vick).
Try 323-104 RY & 579-352 TY edges over GreenBay (38:01-21:59 time edge, &
119 RYs from Gore). Couple that explosive "O" with the NFL's 3rd ranked "D", &
it adds up to the visitor pegged as a FG fav. The Niners have proven their playoff
worth, with a 616-226 RY edge vs the Saints, Giants & Packers these last 2 years.
RATING 2: SAN FRANCISCO 30 - Atlanta 20

BALTIMORE (12-6) at NEW ENGLAND (13-4)
SUNDAY, JANUARY 20 -- 6:30 PM EST -- CBS TELEVISION
VEGAS LINE: NEW ENGLAND BY 9½ -- OVER/UNDER: 51

Does this seem familiar? It should, as these 2 combatants met in this exact same
spot just a season ago, when the Patriots (-7) prevailed by a mere 23-20 score,
thanks to brilliant defensive play to break up a seemingly winning TD pass from
Flacco, followed by a blown FG that would have tied it. A peek at the Recent Stats
column shows that there is little left on the field after the Patriots & Ravens meet,
with final margins of 3, 3, & 1 pt in their '10, '11, & 12 matches. For the Patriots,
this marks their 9th AFC Championship game (7-1 SU), & 7th for Brady/Belichick
(5-1 SU). Tom, of course, has little, if any, peers, & is at his usual brilliance, with a
3/0, 344 PY showing in last week's comfortable win over Houston, turning a 17-13
halftime lead, into a 38-13 lead early in the 4th. Brady is now 37/8 for the year, &
the Pats are at 38.1 ppg in their last 10 games, as well as 34.4 ppg in their last 29
outings. Oh, Tom now sits atop all QBs with 17 playoff wins. Welker, Hernandez,
Ridley, etc, this "O" is near unstoppable. Defensive, however, is another matter,
allowing 334 PYs from Schaub, for example. Enter Joe Flacco, definitely among
the most unappreciated players in the entire NFL. Try 5/0 (TDs/INTs) in playoff
wins over the Colts & Broncos. TDs of 20, 18, 59, 32, & 70 yds, the latter 2 vs the
Broncos, in the final 0:36 of the 1st half, & in the last 0:31, which sent that game
into OT. In their earlier meeting this year, Baltimore scored 10 pts in the last 4:01,
winning it 31-30, at the final gun. Check a 503-396 Raven yd edge in that one. No,
we won't call for the outright upset, but lopsided series games simply do not occur.
RATING 4: New England 31 - BALTIMORE 27

[Can'tPickAWinner]

GOLD SHEET

AFC & NFC CHAMPIONSHIP ANALYSIS

SAN FRANCISCO (12-4-1) at ATLANTA (14-3)
San Francisco 33 - ATLANTA 24—We admit a slight surprise at the opening
line of 49ers -3½ in the NFL title game (although the number had dropped to a
more-solid 3 by later Sunday evening). Spread value or not, any price in range
of a field goal shouldn’t cause abandoning a recommendation for a team you
think is going to win the game.
Which for us in this case is San Francisco.
Do not count us among the pundits who wondered why 49er HC Jim
Harbaugh opted for the “nuclear” option in mid-November by switching QBs
from Alex Smith to 2nd-year Colin Kaepernick. By us, Harbaugh had the right
idea. Many sources reported that while Harbaugh has admiration for Smith, he
was also convinced that Kaepernick’s unique gifts gave San Francisco a better
chance to win the Super Bowl. Harbaugh also figured that if he were to make the
switch, he had to pull the trigger when he did in November; while Kaepernick’s
lack of game experience provided downside risk, his mobility and electric arm
always hinted at a ceiling far above that of Alex Smith.
But what even Harbaugh might not have expected was for NFL
defenses to turn into versions of those in the old WAC that Kaepernick
used to dominate when running the “Pistol” offense for HC Chris Ault at
Nevada. Indeed, Green Bay’s accomplished stop unit looked a lot like Idaho’s
or New Mexico State’s when Kaepernick gained an NFL QB playoff record 181
yards rushing (including TD runs of 20 and 56 yards) in last Saturday’s 45-31
romp. Moreover, Kaepernick displayed a steely resolve when bouncing back
from an early pick-six (courtesy Packer DB Sam Shields) to lead a 579-yard
offensive explosion. The big-play fireworks provided by Kaepernick provide a
much-different dimension to the Niners than at this time a year ago, when Smith
was stewarding a mostly low-risk offense that focused upon Frank Gore’s
running threat and field position provided by a suffocating defense. Those latter
elements remain basically unchanged this season, but Kaepernick’s presence
(and a burgeoning rapport with WR Michael Crabtree, who was a non-factor in
LY’s NFC title game vs. the Giants but caught 9 passes for 119 yards vs. Green
Bay) adds lots more octane to the strike force that also is beginning to drip Oregon
rookie lightning bolt LaMichael James a bit more into the mix in recent weeks.
Although Atlanta finally ended its recent playoff bugaboo last week vs.
Seattle to win in the postseason for the first time after three previous failures in
the HC Mike Smith/QB Matt Ryan era that began in 2008, it only did so after
blowing the entirety of a 20-point 4th-Q lead, and needed some last-second
heroics by Ryan and PK Matt Bryant to steal a 30-28 verdict. While establishing
an often-ineffective infantry when gaining 167 YR vs. the Seahawks, the
Falcons might have more problems doing the same vs. a 49er rush “D” that
allowed only 94 ypg and 3.7 ypc in the regular season. True, big Atlanta
receiving targets WRs Roddy White & Julio Jones and TE Tony Gonzalez
always do their share of business. But keep in mind that the Aldon Smith-led
49er LB crew features a complete cast of first or second-team NFL All-Pros.
And San Francisco has plenty of DBs to cover Ryan’s preferred weapons;
converting yards into points might be tougher vs. the 49ers than vs. Seattle.
In conclusion, Kaepernick, already having outscored Tom Brady (on the
road) and Aaron Rodgers in the last month, doesn’t figure to get spooked by this
assignment. Not with his established supporting cast and arguably the mostathletic
OL in the game against an Atlanta defensive front that was spotty vs.
the run all year (4.8 ypc) and generated little pass rush besides DE John
Abraham (10 sacks; only 18 for the rest of the team). With no hint of Mr. Hyde
in Kaepernick’s makeup, we expect the 49ers to outscore another highly-rated
foe and get Jim Harbaugh to the Super Bowl after last year’s near miss.
(10-ATLANTA -7 16-14...SR: San Francisco 44-30-1)

BALTIMORE (12-6) at NEW ENGLAND (13-4)
NEW ENGLAND 25 - Baltimore 23—If we knew that New England DBs
were going to defend the Ravens like the Denver Broncos did, this would be an
easy pick. Still, there appears to be plenty of evidence that Baltimore is ready
to give Tom Brady and the Patriots all they can handle. And not just because
the team is on some special quest to get emotional leader Ray Lewis to the
Super Bowl one last time.
The Ravens have certainly shaken their late-season blahs, which saw them
lose 4 of their last 5 games. And Baltimore has certainly shown that it will not
be fazed by facing a Bill Belichick team, as these two foes have played each
other 6 times in the last 6 years (two of those meetings in the playoffs). Only
once was the game not close, and that was a 33-14 Wildcard round Raven win
in Foxborough in 2009. Four games were Patriot victories, but by 3 in 2007
(N.E.’s 16-0 regular season), by 6 in the 2009 regular season, by 3 in OT in
2010, and by 3 last year in the AFC Championship Game. This year's meeting
was a 31-30 Raven win in Baltimore.
Moreover, Baltimore is now a better-balanced, more-mature team this time
around, mostly because of QB Joe Flacco’s big arm and greater knowledge how
to use it. Flacco is the only QB to ever win a playoff game in each of his first five
seasons. He is now 7-4 in the playoffs overall, including 5-4 on the road. Yes,
Brady now has more playoff wins (17) than any QB in history. But, sinace his
remarkable 9-0 playoff run and three Super bowl titles to start his career, Brady
is just 8-6 SU in the postseason. And, with star TE Rob Gronkowski out with a
re-fractured forearm and with valuable RB Danny Woodhead (thumb) also
injured last week, Brady’s quick-hitting attack is not operating on all cylinders.
Plus, let’s not forget last year’s 23-20 Pats’ title-game victory at Gillette
Stadium. It was a close shave indeed, as the Ravens’ then-PK Billy Cundiff
missed an unnecessarily hurried 32-yard chip-shot FG at the end that would
have tied the game at 23 and sent it to overtime! Baltimore out-gained Brady
& Co. 398 to 330 that day, with Tom Terrific throwing two ints. and Flacco one.
In the pits, Baltimore has “found something” with its recent OL adjustments,
as a slimmed-down and re-invigorated LT Bryant McKinnie has fought his way
back into the starting lineup, allowing the versatile Michael Oher to shift back to
his natural RT spot, bumping physical rookie prize Kelechi Osemele to G to pair
with all-pro Marshal Yanda. The Ravens’ 327 YR so far in the playoffs are no
accident, with both the RBs and Flacco helped greatly by the big uglies up front.
Yes, New England was focused on stopping the Houston run last week. But the
Pats recorded only one sack vs. immobile Texan QB Matt Schaub.
And has anyone noticed that Raven receiver Torrey Smith has become a
big-time, big-pay target, with the honored Champ Bailey his latest victim? That
has opened things up for possession WR Anquan Boldin and TEs Dennis Pitta
& Ed Dickson for valuable ball-control receptions. On defense, when OLB
Terrell Suggs and ILB Lewis were out with their injuries, OLB Paul Kruger (9
sacks in reg. season) & ILB Dannell Ellerbe (4½) blossomed. Now, all are ready
(although Lewis & Suggs might be a bit less than 100%).
Young RB Stevan Ridley (1263 YR in regular season) and the speedy Shane
Vereen (two TDC, 1 TDR last week) have enlivened the N.E. offense. But the
Ravens have also been lifted in recent weeks, and jet-powered KR/WR Jacoby
Jones could be a problem for the Patriot STs, which struggled in coverage last
week. No surprise if this latest Baltimore-New England duel is another nailbiter.
(12-BALT. 31-N. Eng. 30...N.33-28 B.26/121 N.34/77 B.28/39/1/382 N.28/41/0/319 B.0 N.0)
(11-N. ENG. 23-Balt. 20...N.25-19 B.31/116 N.31/96 B.22/36/1/282 N.22/36/2/234 N.1 B.0)
(12-BALTIMORE -2' 31-30; 11-N. ENGLAND -7 23-20 (Playoffs)...SR: New England 7-2)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFLBettingPicks / Kevin

2 UNIT = San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons - 49ERS -4 (-109)
(Note: I'm risking 2.18 units to win 2.00 units)
The San Francisco 49ers took care of business at home against Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers last Saturday to improve to 12-4-1 on the season, and 7-1 at home. They were 5-3 on the road this year, and head into Atlanta to take on the NFC's #1 seed in Atlanta. The Falcons barely got by Seattle at home last week with a field goal to win by 2 points. San Francisco is a lot like Seattle in that they have a great defense and a high powered offense led by a young QB in Colin Kaepernick who can also use his legs. Kaepernick threw for 263 yards, 2 TDs with 1 INT on Saturday, and added 181 yards on the ground and 2 rushing TDs. He had a QB Rating of 98.3 this season and had 415 yards rushing with 5 TDs even though he took over the starting QB job mid way through the season. The San Francisco 49ers weren't far behind Atlanta (who were 8th in the NFL on offense) at 11th with less than 2 ppg less than the Falcons. The 49ers defense was 3rd ranked in the league allowing just 294 yards against per game and 17.1 papg. The Falcons were 24th in the league overall, although they allowed just 18.7 papg. The 49ers offense should be able to get more done on the ground this week than the Seahawks did on Sunday vs the Falcons who ranked 29th in the league in yards against per carry. Take note that the 49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs a team with a winning record, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs a team with a winning home record, 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games on fieldturf, and 24-11-1 ATS in their last 36 games overall. The Falcons are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 playoff games and last week Matt Ryan barely squeaked out his first career playoff victory and he was lucky to do so. This 49ers teams is a little more experienced going to the Conference Championship game last year losing to the eventual Super Bowl champions in overtime, and I think they are the better team all around. I like San Francisco to advance to the Super Bowl and cover the spread in doing so.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

PLAYBOOK MARC LAWRENCE

NFL CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP GAMES

ATLANTA over San Francisco by 3
Although many will be hard-pressed to recall the Falcons’ last (and only)
trip to the Super Bowl, the fact is Atlanta made it to the Big Game
more recently than the 49ers, clinching the 1998 NFC title whereas
San Francisco’s last Super Bowl appearance concluded the 1994 season. And
though many NFL fans are intrigued by the possibility of a Civil War style
brother-against-brother Harbaugh showdown in February for the Lombardi
Trophy, we don’t think it’s gonna happen. Sure, Atlanta tried every way possible
to lose last week’s semifi nal matchup with Seattle, blowing a 20-point 4th
quarter lead to ruin our 4★ Late Phone play on the Dirty Birds. But to their
credit, they came back and won the game with a clutch drive in the fi nal 40
seconds to set up Matt Bryant’s 49-yard game winning FG. Meanwhile, San
Francisco’s Colin Kaepernick ran for a quarterback playoff record 181 yards and
two touchdowns (also added a pair of TD’s on passes to Michael Crabtree)
as the Niners won the Battle of the Bays, conquering the Packers, 45-31.
However, with Kaepernick leaving behind the comfy confi nes of Candlestick
Park for the raucous Georgia Dome, we don’t anticipate the well-inked QB to
repeat last week’s success. Our biggest cause for concern is Frisco coach Jim
Harbaugh’s eye-popping 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS NFL career mark versus .667 or
better opposition, including 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS this year. We can counter that
success with this little gem from our PLAYBOOK.com database (also applies
to New England): teams that score 40 or more points in a playoff win are an
incredibly bad 3-20 ATS in their next playoff game! And with Atlanta taking
points today, the database informs us that all NFL home dogs have gone 20-
13 SU and 22-11 ATS in the playoffs, including 8-2 SUATS if .750 or better –
and 8-4 SU and 9-3 ATS if they own the better win percentage. Overall, home
teams in title games off back-to-back home contests are a respectable 21-8
SU and 17-12 ATS. But when the host shows up as a dog or favorite of 3 or
fewer points, those numbers sweeten to 6-1 SUATS the last seven outings.
Falcons head coach Mike Smith is a moneymaker when playing off an ATS
defeat, going 24-6 SU and 23-7 ATS, and with the playoff monkey FINALLY off
his back, we look for the momentum from last Sunday’s miracle fi nish to carry
over today. Look out, New Orleans… here come the Dirty Birds!

AFC CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP GAMES

NEW ENGLAND over Baltimore by 3
If you think the veteran Ravens – who have played nine of their last 11
playoff games on the road – will be intimidated this Sunday night in
Foxboro, think again! Forget about Billy Cundiff’s missed 32-yard FG in
last year’s AFC championship game on this fi eld that would have sent the
game to overtime. Baltimore was a Lee Evans-dropped touchdown pass
(though some still feel it was catch) from a Super Bowl XXXV rematch with
the Giants. Ironically, the Ravens defeated the Patriots 31-30 in Week Three
of this season on rookie kicker Justin Tucker’s 27-yard FG as time expired as
they tallied 503 total yards – the most allowed by New England this year.
However, with home teams 21-8 SU in title tilts off back-to-back homers and
the Pats 4-0 SU in Foxboro in championship games, we’re hesitant to call for
the outright upset. However, we’re not worried about taking off the hoodie
in the cold weather as far as the ATS number is concerned. For starters, the
Ravens are 7-1 ATS on the postseason road versus non-division opposition
since 2000 and 10-4-1 ATS against fellow playoff teams the last two seasons
Baltimore QB Joe Flacco is also 7-2 ATS in the postseason versus teams that
reside outside of the AFC North while John Harbaugh, the Birds’ head coach,
has suffered only nine losses by double-digit margins in 92 total games! The
clincher, though, may come in the form of a Ravens’ 20-3 SU and 17-8 ATS
mark after allowing 24 or more points under Harbaugh. Or perhaps it’s the
fact the database reminds us that teams who score 40 or more points in
a postseason contest are a paltry 3-20 ATS in their next playoff affair since
1996. Of course, Baltimore’s unsteady defense (owned over 100 yards the
better stop-unit in this matchup last year, but holds just a slight edge this
season) is a concern. However, New England’s recent mark as playoff chalk
(2-7 ATS last nine) and Tom Brady’s wobbly 4-8 ATS log as a playoff favorite
of 3 or more points – along with the loss of Pro Bowl TE Rob Gronkowski –
has us singing with the Black Crows like we did in this spot last season. Once
again, it’s the Pats by the skin of Brady’s teeth… unless, of course, Ray Lewis
gets to them first! A must take.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

STATFOX

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

KEY Betting Trend:
Road teams where total is between 42.5 and 49 points, outgaining opponents by 1.25 or more yards/play, after gaining 400+ total yards in prior game. (31-9 Over)
Play = Over total

Series History – Last 5 seasons:
ATLANTA is 2-1 ATS, 3-0 SU overall vs. SAN FRANCISCO
ATLANTA is 1-1 ATS, 2-0 SU at home vs. SAN FRANCISCO

Statfox Power Trends:
ATLANTA is 3-19 ATS at home off a home win since 1992.
ATLANTA is 17-6 UNDER after a win over the L2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 9-2 UNDER when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
SAN FRAN is 22-12 ATS in all lined games over the L2 seasons.
SAN FRAN is 7-0 ATS when playing top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%) over L2 seasons.
SAN FRAN is 10-1 ATS vs. defenses allowing 7+ pass yards/att. over the L3 seasons.
SAN FRAN is 15-4 ATS vs. defenses allowing >=5.65 yards/play over the L3 seasons.

The Falcons made another narrow escape at home last week. They’re 8-1 SU but 4-5 ATS at home, and they haven’t been a home underdog since October 2011. QB Matt Ryan is 34-6 SU career at the Georgia Dome, and the Falcons have won 12 of 13 SU at home, the lone loss in a meaningless Week 17 game. In two years under Jim Harbaugh, San Fran is 6-1 SU and ATS in the Eastern time zone. QB Colin Kaepernick went just 2-2 SU on the road as a starter during the 2012 regular season.

• Play Against – Road teams (ATLANTA) - after a win by 10 or more points against opponent coming off a game where 50 total points or more were scored.
(118-77 over the last 10 seasons, 60.5%, +33.3 units)
Rating = 1

• ATLANTA is 22-8 ATS under head coach Mike Smith when coming off a loss against the spread.
RATING = 2

STATFOX FORECASTER
San Francisco 49ers 23
Atlanta Falcons 21

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

Betting System:
Road teams - in conference games, after a road game
where both teams scored 24 or more points. (35-10 ATS)
Play = BALTIMORE against the spread

Series History – Last 5 Seasons:
NEW ENGLAND is 2-3-1 ATS, 4-2 SU overall vs. BALTIMORE
NEW ENGLAND is 1-2-1 ATS, 3-1 SU at home vs. BALTIMORE

Statfox Power Trends:
NEW ENG. is 18-4 OVER at home against conference opponents over the L3 seasons.
NEW ENG. is 12-1 OVER at home after 3 or more consecutive wins over L2 seasons.
NEW ENG. is 25-7 OVER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the L3 seasons.
NEW ENG. is 15-1 OVER after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin
of +1 or better over the L2 seasons.
BALT. is 8-0 OVER vs. teams allowing <= 7.5 yards per return over the L2 seasons.
BALT. is 40-23 ATS after a game where 50+ total pointscwere scored since 1992.

In last year’s title game, Baltimore came within a dropped
TD of a victory and a missed short FG of forcing OT at New
England. The Ravens haven’t been as good defensively this
year, allowing 400-plus yards six times this season. New
England hung 41 points and 457 yards on Houston last week,
but will continue to be without TE Rob Gronkowski (arm).
Even with last week’s big win, the Patriots are only 2-5 ATS
in their last seven home playoff games, and they lost SU to
Baltimore in the Divisional round three years ago.

• Play Against – Home favorites
(NEW ENGLAND) - revenging a loss against an opponent when coming off two consecutive covers as a favorite.
(24-5 over the last 10 seasons, 82.8%, +18.5 units)
Rating = 3

• Play Over – Home teams (NEW ENGLAND) - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game, after scoring 35 points or more in their previous game.
(44-19 over the last 10 seasons, 69.8%, +23.1 units)
Rating = 2

STATFOX FORECASTER
Baltimore Ravens 23
New England Patriots 31

The NFL’s Final Four Recent history suggests we could see a lot of scoring this Sunday
The Conference Championship games have taken on a different feel
lately than most football fans had become accustomed. For one,
no longer is the No. 1 seed a lock to be hosting the game: Prior to
2006, top seeds had hosted 21 of the 26 games since ’93—they will
have hosted only seven of the last 16 once this Sunday’s games are
played in Atlanta and New England.
With upsets becoming more frequent in the earlier rounds, the
typical methods for handicapping the Conference Championships
has changed. We’ll dive deeper into that as we move along, but
we’ll start with the fact that home teams are just 24-16 SU & 18-21-1
ATS in the last 40. One thing that has stayed consistent, however,
is the fact that the games in this round have been reliably high
scoring. In terms of the total, OVER has been the result in 24 of
40 games since ’93, and only three times in that period was the
UNDER the result in both games in a single year.

Recent Trends
We’ve already established the fact that most recent Conference
Championship games have gone OVER the total. If you look back at
just the games since ’05, 12 of the 16 games have seen the total go
that way. Home-field advantage has been restored somewhat as well
of late, with hosts on a run of 10-3 SU & 7-6 ATS dating back to the
late game of January 22nd of 2006. Here are some other general
handicapping tidbits you might be able to utilize this Sunday:

• AFC and NFC Conference Championship games have shown varying results.
In the AFC, road teams are on a run of 5-8 SU & 7-6 ATS
in the last 13 years. In the NFC, home field has been more advantageous, with hosts boasting a record of 5-3 SU & 4-4 ATS in the last eight games.

• Overall, favorites own a slight 11-9 ATS edge in the last 10 years on
Conference Championship Sunday. AFC favorites have carried that
edge, going 7-3 ATS.

• Four of the last six NFC Championship games have gone OVER
the total. The home team has averaged more than 25 points per
game during that span.

Trends by Seed Number
Here’s a breakdown of trends specific to the seed number of the playoff
teams involved in the Conference Championship games:

• Six of the last eight times that a Conference Championship game
was hosted by a non-No. 1 seed, the game went OVER the total,
producing 46.9 PPG. Four of the last six non-No. 1 seeded hosts won
their games, both SU & ATS.

• There have been 14 instances since ’93 in which a seed No. 4 or
lower reached the Conference Championship Round and took on a
No. 1 or No. 2. Those lesser seeds boast a 8-6 SU & 8-5-1 ATS record
in those games.

Trends by Line Range
Lines in the conference title games have been a bit tighter than those
in the previous round, with the average favorite laying less than 5.5
points since ’93. There have been seven home underdogs in that span.

Take a look at these other line specific trends:
• Hosts have been most reliable when playing as favorites in the
-3 to -9.5 line range in Conference Championship Games, going 17-8
SU & 15-10 ATS since ’93. Interestingly, the straight-up winner had
been 22-0 ATS in such games before the streak ended in the January 2010 NFC title game: New Orleans won but failed to cover the
4-point spread in its 31-28 win over Minnesota. Order was restored
in 2011 when the Steelers won and covered at home against the Jets
as a 4-point favorite, but the Patriots last year failed to cover in their
23-20 win as a 7-point favorite over the Ravens. Eight straight contests of this type had gone OVER the total prior to last year’s AFC
title game, which had a line of 49.

• Going back to ’93, 10 Conference Championship games have
seen a line move 1.5 points or more throughout the week. Bettors
are 4-5-1 ATS in those games following the money, but when the
line has moved three points or more, bettors are just 0-3-1 ATS.
In other words, you’d have been much better off fading the line
move in such cases.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NELLY'S GREEN SHEET

RATING 2: San Francisco

RATING 1: UNDER SF/ATL

RATING 2: New England

RATING 1: OVER BAL/NE

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jimmy Boyd
3* (NFL) Atlanta Falcons +5
3* (NFL) New England Pats -8.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

POWERSWEEP

Conference Finals

SAN FRAN-3/47' (12-4-1)
ATLANTA+3/47' (14-3)
This is the 1st meeting between these staffs w/the last matchup in 2010 which ATL won 16-14 as a 7 pt HF. SF is 6-1 ATS in EST games under Harbaugh w/the only loss being at BAL on Thanksgiving which had the NFL change its sked policy prior to 2012. SF owns a 5-3 SU/ATS record on the road TY with +30 ypg (+5 TO's). ATL is now 8-1 SU/4-5 ATS at home for -17 ypg (+7 TO's). ATL is 5-1 SU/3-3 ATS vs the common foes of NO/ARZ/NYG/DET/SEA for -13 ypg (+5 TO's) and a 28-18 avg score. SF earned a 5-2 SU/3-3-1 ATS mark against the same foes (+48 ypg, -1 TO's) with a 20-19 avg
score.
In Kaepernick's 4 road starts (2-2 SU/ATS) he's avg'd 226 ypg (59%) w/a 6-3 ratio. Matt Ryan at home TY has avg'd 267 ypg (65%) w/a 14-11 ratio. In NFL playoffs history, teams trailing by 20 or more points after 3Q's are 0-84.
Prior to Kaepernick, SF avg'd 366 ypg, 215 ypg pass and 23.7 ppg. Since he took over it's 356 ypg, 230 ypg pass and 26.3 ppg but he is much more aggressive with the ball as SF uses more of the Pistol off. Gore quietly logged his 2nd str year of 1,200 yds rush thanks to the best OL in the NFL TY that gave up 1 sk every 16 pass att's w/Kaepernick
vs 1 every 8.4 w/Smith. Crabtree has finally taken to being a #1 WR here and became the 1st WR w/1,000 yds recs/'03 while Davis has admitted he's not as comfortable w/a new QB at the helm. Losing Manningham (knee) created an unknown as it was a ? as to how much gas Moss has left. SF's OL was one of 3 to start every game together TY
(MIN/NYJ). SF's D ret'd all 11 st'rs from LY's #4 unit and they didn't miss a start until Justin Smith tore a tricep. He is the key cog in the system setting up the majority of Aldon Smith's 19.5 regular ssn sks to a stop unit that all'd 91 ypg (3.6) rush w/him in the lineup. The 49ers also have the best LB unit in the NFL w/Aldon, Willis and Bowman locked up longterm. They own the #5 pass D and their 6.1 ypa is 2nd best. SF has our #10 ST's TY despite Akers struggles.
ATL took a big risk replacing its OC/DC prior to the year but it has paid off very well. The offense now goes through Ryan instead of supporting him. Ryan put up career numbers across the board but faced just 3 teams that
finished w/a top 10 def avg 301 ypg (68%) w/a 10-3 ratio (3-1 SU/2-2 ATS). Ryan has helped White and Jones become ATL's 1st 1,100 yd rec tandem since 1998 with Gonzalez finishing 70 yds short of ATL's 1st 1,000 yd trio since 1995. ATL's run game hasn't had much if any impact TY as RB Turner has slowed down (3.6). ATL's OL has
been ultra-reliable w/4 of 5 OL playing 98.7% of the snaps TY as they had their 5th year of under 30 sks allowed.
While ATL's #24 def is a bit misleading (#5 def pts, #2 def ypp) they struggled for sacks (#27) and were mauled vs the run (4.8 ypc 29th). On the flip side, ATL's 14-20 ratio was the best in the NFL TY w/a very formidable secondary when healthy. Overall, DC Nolan has this def playing better than the sum of its parts on all levels. Despite a strong
year by Bosher (40.7 net, 37% punts inside 20), ATL has our #16 spec tms unit due to avg return units.
ATL faced a mobile QB twice a year in Newton but they still allowed 28 and 30 pts to CAR TY. Kaepernick has a better OL than CAR w/a faster burst and gets to play on turf here. SF has gone Over in 5 straight and ATL's D isn't that stout due to a soft sked. ATL also has big play weapons in the passing game w/the confidence for a shootout here.
FORECAST: OVER 49ERS/FALCONS RATING: 3*

BALTIMORE+9/51 (12-6)
NEW ENGLAND-9/51 (13-4)
This is the 6th meeting in 4 years and 3rd playoff matchup in that time with the L/3 games being decided by 3 or less. BAL was a dropped ball in the EZ/missed FG away from making the SB in LY's AFC Championship w/a 398-330 yd edge losing 23-20 as a 7 pt AD. BAL squeaked out a 31-30 win as a 2 pt HF in a very emotional game for them. They had a 503-396 yd edge hitting the game winning FG as time expired as NE blew a 13-0 lead. BAL pulled in a 2-2 SU/ATS record vs the common foes of HOU/DEN/IND for a -53 mark (-2 TO's) and a 30-23 avg deficit. NE tallied a 4-0 SU/ATS record over 435 yds/30 pts in 3 of 4 matchups. BAL is 5-4 SU/4-5 ATS on the road for 2012 w/a -24 ypg (+7 TO's) margin. NE is now 7-2 SU/5-4 ATS at home for 2012 avg over 420 ypg/35 ppg.
2012 was supposed to be the yr that Flacco, in a contract yr, broke out but the off had become quite predictable and Rice wasn't being utilized to his fullest (2 100 yd gms vs 6 LY). Flacco had a solid 15-5 ratio (8.3 ypa) at home but just 7-5 ratio (5.9 ypa) on the road. Rice does have a solid amount of rec's but that's coming off checkdowns. Boldin remains a solid #2 type w/Smith being a dangerous deep threat. BAL likes to use the 2 TE sets but they are much more conservative than NE in scheme. The OL is above avg (#20 sks, 4.7 ypc) which is a disappointment w/the talent.
2002 was the last time BAL wasn't in the top 10 for D for ydg but they remain top 10 in ypp. Inj's have hit every level here but they should have 9 of 11 opening day st'rs (CB Webb/LB McClain) here. The fact they had only given up a 14-13 ratio shows their uality of depth. BAL has our #1 ST's unit thanks to Jones work comb w/a great yr by Koch.
For the 4th time in his L5Y of full starts, Brady has finished with 24 more td's than int. NE's ability to effortlessly shift from the spread to 2 TE to a power running game (3 out of 4Y w/top 12 rush offense) sets them apart from other offenses. Ridley became the 1st 1,200 yd rusher for NE since Corey Dillon in 2004 and he hasn't fully grown into the
system yet. NE has the best 2 TE set in the NFL w/Gronkowski being a stronger receiving TE and Hernandez being more well rounded. Welker was the 1st player in NFL history w/5 100 rec seasons and Lloyd has been a strong, but not dominant, addition. The OL has been dinged a bit due to injuries to Mankins/Vollmer but it's still a physical
system oriented unit. NE's #25 def ranking is wildly misleading as they were 4th in yds per pt and tied Belichick's record w/41 takeaways. Wilfork continues to be the fulcrum of the DL with rookie Chandler Jones making a strong impression. The strength of the defense is versatility with Mayo being a rare 3 Dn LB. NE's secondary is a concern
but picking up Talib was a great move and McCourty has been stellar moving around. NE's #17 spec teams is due to a mediocre net avg by Mesko who doesn't get to boom it like other P's but NE has excellent coverage/return units.
This is the 1st conference finals rematch s/'92-'93 when DAL beat SF in back-to-back seasons. BAL is now looking for playoff revenge after TY's loss in wk 3. The public has jumped on the Ray Lewis bandwagon but that type of emotion is tough to carry into a 3rd straight week and 2nd straight road game. Much prefer to back a Belichick coached squad with Brady at the helm with a foe that he's seeing for the 3rd time in 12 months.
FORECAST: PATRIOTS by 16 RATING: 2*

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Johnny Harrison / Vegas Killers

NFL CHAMPIONSHIP

Atlanta Falcons +5

Atlanta Falcons ML +175

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SCOTT SPREITZER'S
CONF CHAMPIONSHIP G.O.Y!

New England Patriots

I'm laying the points with New England in Sunday's AFC Championship. The Baltimore Ravens have made it to the conference title game, but they haven't been getting it done on the defensive side in the postseason, or for most of the regular season either. The Ravens' defense gave up 35 points, 30 first downs, and was on the field for 84 plays in last week's double-OT win over Denver. They allowed 25 first downs and 419 yards to Indianapolis, on a whopping 84 plays in the wildcard round. That's 168 offensive plays the Raven defense has faced the the last two weekends. And let's not forget they allowed 23, 34, and 31 points in three of their final four regular season contests. Even without Ron Gronkowski, the Patriots should have little trouble moving the football and scoring points. After all, the Pats went 4-1 in the five games Gronkowski missed during the season. The Pats average a league-best 427.9 total yards per game. They own the league's 4th best passing offense and they're an under-hyped 7th on the ground. New England has averaged 38.1 ppg in their last 10 games, including last weekend's 41-28 win over Houston. Bill Belichick's troops are 8-2 ATS this season as a favorite of 3 1/2 to 9 1/2 points this season and they're 13-4 ATS in revenge of a same season loss under Belichick (lost 31-30 in Sept). Finally, NFL home favorites of 3 1/2 to 10 points are on a 33-12 ATS run if they outgain their opponents by an average of 40 to 100 yards, provided their current opponent owns a +40/-40 average margin per game, as long as they gained at least 400 yards in their previous outing. Look for New England to put Baltimore's season and Ray Lewis' playing career to bed with a big win and cover on Sunday. I'm laying the points with the Patriots. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

POINTWISE PHONES:

3 Stars: San Francisco, Over in SanFrancisco/Atlanta Game

2 Stars: New England, Over in Baltimore/NewEngland Game