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R.A.W. FOOTBALL - NFL Championships
3* = "OVER" on PATRIOTS/RAVENS
3* = ATLANTA FALCONS
3* = "OVER" on PATRIOTS/RAVENS
3* = ATLANTA FALCONS
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Intpicks
3* Baltimore +8 @ Patriots
2* San Fran -4 @ Atlanta
1* San Fran @ Atlanta OVER 48.5
Freebie: Lakers @ Toronto OVER 205
PARLAY ALERT:
#1 49ERS -4 & OVER 48.5
#2 49ERS -4 & BALTIMORE +8Comment
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Johnny Harrison / Vegas Killers
PROPS
Jacquizz Rogers over 54.5 yards rushing and receiving
Aaron Hernandez over 62.5 yards receiving
NBA
Boston Celtics -2
Oklahoma City Thunder -1Comment
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JOE WIZ Free Play
Over the total between Dallas and OrlandoComment
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NSAwins William E. Stockton
20* NFL Atlanta UNDER 49½
20* NFL New England UNDER 52½
20* NBA Denver +1½
10* NFL Atlanta +5
10* NFL New England -7½
10* NCAAB Indiana UNDER 137½Comment
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NSAwins Steve "SCOOP" Kendall
20* NFL Atlanta +5
20* NFL New England UNDER 52½
20* NCAAB Rider +4½
10* NFL Atlanta UNDER 49½
10* NFL New England -7½
10* NBA Boston UNDER 185½Comment
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Jack Jones
NFL Football Premium Picks
-= TOP PLAY =-
NFL | Jan 20 '13 (3:00p)
San Francisco 49ers vs Atlanta Falcons San Francisco 49ers
-197 at 5dimes
20* 49ers/Falcons NFC Championship ANNIHILATOR on San Francisco Money Line -197
The 49ers were the most impressive team in the league in the divisional round. Colin Kaepernick had a coming out party in their 45-31 blowout victory over the Green Bay Packers. He threw for 263 yards and two touchdowns, while also rushing for 181 yards and two scores.
Kaepernick helped the 49ers set a franchise playoff record with 589 total yards of offense. That's saying something when you consider San Francisco has had some very potent offenses dating back to the Joe Montana/Steve Young days. This offense has an excellent chance to explode once again Sunday as it goes up against an Atlanta defense that gave up 491 total yards to Seattle last week.
The 49ers clearly have the better defense in this one. They are giving up just 17.9 points per game and 297.8 total yards per game. Atlanta give up a ridiculous 372.9 yards per game defensively. It is actually getting outgained on the season, which is a sign that the Falcons are not nearly as good as their 14-3 record would indicate.
San Francisco’s strength offensively is a rushing attack that averages 166 yards per game and 5.3 per carry. Atlanta’s biggest weakness defensively is a run defense that allows 123 yards per game and 4.8 per carry. Kaepernick, Gore and company are in line for a big day on the ground.
The Falcons rely heavily on Matt Ryan to win games. They average 280 passing yards per game, but just 92 rushing. The 49ers have one of the best passing defenses in the league as they give up a mere 203 passing yards per game and 5.7 per attempt. They held Aaron Rodgers in check last week, and they'll make life very difficult on Ryan Sunday as well.
Jim Harbaugh is a perfect 7-0 against the money line when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%) as the coach of San Francisco. The 49ers are winning in this spot 32.7 to 16.9, or by an average of 15.8 points per game. Bet the 49ers on the Money Line Sunday.
-= TOP PLAY =-
NFL | Jan 20 '13 (6:30p)
Baltimore Ravens vs New England Patriots Baltimore Ravens
+9½-115 at SIA
25* NFL Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Baltimore Ravens +9.5
The Ravens have really come together as a team in the playoffs after a tough finish to the regular season. It all coincided with the return of Ray Lewis from injury. Lewis announced that he would be retiring after this season a few weeks back, and this team has completely rallied behind him because of it.
Baltimore went into Denver and came away with a 38-35 overtime victory as a 9.5-point underdog. It overcame two special teams touchdowns by Broncos’ return man Trindon Holliday, as well as a 7-point deficit over the final two minutes of regulation with no timeouts.
Joe Flacco hit Jacoby Jones on a 70-yard touchdown pass to tie it, while Justin Tucker booted a game-winning 47-yard field goal in overtime. Baltimore outplayed Denver, outgaining it 479-398 for the game. It comes in with a lot of momentum after such a big road win over the AFC's No. 1 seed.
This has been a very tightly contested series in six meetings dating back to 2007. While New England has won four of the six, all four of its victories came by 6 points or less, including three by exactly 3 points.
Baltimore beat New England 31-30 at home earlier this season, and it should have won in the AFC Championship last year as a 7-point underdog. It lost 20-23 at New England after a dropped touchdown pass by Lee Evans, and a missed chip shot field goal by Billy Cundiff in the closing seconds. It certainly wants revenge in this one.
New England will now be without arguably its biggest playmakers in tight end Rob Gronkowski for the remainder of the postseason after he re-injured his forearm last week. Gronk has a team-high 11 touchdown receptions and is simply irreplaceable.
This play falls into a system that is 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. It tells us to bet against home favorites (NEW ENGLAND) - revenging a loss against opponent, after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite.
The Ravens are 10-4 against the spread in their last 14 playoff road games. The Patriots are 2-8 against the spread in their last 10 playoff games, including 2-7 ATS in their last 9 playoff home games. New England is clearly overvalued here against a Baltimore team that has proven it matches up well with the Patriots over the past six meetings. Bet the Ravens Sunday.Comment
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Maddux Sports:
3 Picks For Sunday
#301 - NFL - 20 units on San Francisco -3.5
#304 - NFL - 10 units on New England -7.5
#303 - NFL - 10 units on Baltimore & New England Over 51Comment
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5Lines
Total Line for 01/20/2013
(Won last game)
Today's Winning Team is:
NBA - Oklahoma City Thunder : o209
Cost: -110
Run Line for 01/20/2013
(Won last game)
Today's Winning Team is:
NBA - Los Angeles Lakers : -5
Cost: -110Comment
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Hank Goldberg
San Francisco 49ers 31
Atlanta Falcons 20
Baltimore Ravens 24
New England Patriots 27
He was 0-4 last week, on the season 53-47-2Comment
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Northcoast
3* SF over 48.5
Top opinion
NE -7.5
Regular opinions
Under 51.5 NE
SF -3.5Comment
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Mark Lawrence
5* BaltimoreComment
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Philly Skipper
Pick: 49ers/Falcons Over 48.5 (-110)
Pick: Patriots -7.5 (-110)
Pick: 49ers -4 (-110)Comment
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mti
5-Star NEW ENGLAND -7.5 over Baltimore -- The Ravens got the victory they wanted last week. It made their season successful - a double-overtime game for the ages. After the game, Ray Lewis said "I've never been a part of a game so crazy in my life." They should have very little left for the Patriots.
The Baltimore Ravens are 0-17 ATS (-7.4 ppg) on the road the week after a straight up win in which they had at least three more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average and 0-8-1 ATS when they are off a double-digit road cover in which they held their opponent to 125 yards rushing or less.
It is very challenging to beat the Patriots twice in the same season. New England is 18-4-2 ATS in the history of the database in their home stadium when seeking same-season revenge for a loss. The SDQL text is:
team=Patriots and H and P:L and P:season=season and 19891119<=date and week<22
Note that the Pats are 7-0 SU and ATS in this spot since 2001. In their last five games in this spot, their margins of victory were: 31, 21, 17, 42 and 28.
New England held the Texans to 4-of-15 third down conversion attempts and did not allow a scoring drive of 50-plus years until late in the fourth quarter when they were leading by 17 points.
The Patriots are 36-13-4 ATS over the years the week after a game in which they held their opponent to a third down conversion percentage of less than 33%. The SDQL text is:
po:3DP<33 and team=Patriots and p:W and NB and 20011111<=date
New England played virtually an error free game last week and they have been unstoppable in this spot. In the history of the database, the Pats are 16-0 ATS from week 17 on when they are off a game in which they committed fewer than two turnovers, allowed more than three points and were not up by two-TDs at the half, as long as they were not laying a dozen or more points in that game. The SDQL text is:
team=Patriots and p:TO<2 and week>=17 and p:line>-12 and p:M2<14 and po:points>3
Note that New England has covered by an average of 14.2 ppg in this spot. Last season, they were in a very similar spot. The Broncos were visiting the Patriots off a HUGE upset over the Steelers. New England destroyed them 45-10 with the Broncos only TD a 24-yard drive off a Brady interception.
Psychologically, the Ravens are done whereas the Patriots still have work to do.
The much-anticipated Brady vs Manning bout did not develop, but Brady can gain ground on Manning by trashing a team that beat Manning. Lay the points. MTi's FORECAST: NEW ENGLAND 41 Baltimore 17Comment
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David Banks
Baltimore Ravens vs. New England Patriots
The AFC Championship Game this season is a rematch of last year's championship game at the same venue, as the New England Patriots are once again hosting the Baltimore Ravens at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, MA at 6:30 ET on CBS. The Patriots prevailed in this game 23-20 last season, and then these teams met again in the regular season this year with the Ravens prevailing in another close but higher scoring game 31-30 back in September with replacement officials doing the game.
The Ravens have always defended Tom Brady well, so we may not see the same offense that dismantled the Houston Texans 41-28 in the divisional round this week. Yes, the Pats put up 30 points in the regular season meeting, but remember that Baltimore's best pass rusher Terrell Suggs was out for that game. Suggs and Ray Lewis are now both playing at the same time, something that did not happen even once during the regular season, and when you add in the blossoming of Paul Kruger as an outstanding rush linebacker as the year went on, you may see the Baltimore defense here that made Brady look very ordinary in this game last year when he completed just 22-of-36 passes for 239 yards with two interceptions and no touchdown passes. Also, expect Baltimore to employ a ball control offensive game plan here in an attempt to keep Brady and the New England offense on the sideline as long as possible.
That Ravens' game plan will probably start with heavy doses of Ray Rice, who rushed for 101 yards on 20 carries in the regular season meeting. Now the Patriots' run defense did improve as the year went on, as New England in fact finished seventh in the NFL in rushing defense during the season allowing only 101.4 yards per game on 3.9 yards per carry. However, the Denver Broncos finished fourth in rushing defense while allowing 3.6 yards per carry, and that did not stop Rice from rushing for 131 yards against them last week. That rushing success also freed up Joe Flacco to have one of his best games ever given what was at stake, as he threw for 331 yards and three touchdowns in the 38-35 overtime upset win. Baltimore may rely more on Rice this week as it tries to play keep-away, but Flacco should again have success when he is call upon as long as the Patriots have to worry about Rice. Also, the Baltimore offensive line did an outstanding job against a Denver defensive line that tied for the NFL lead with 52 sacks, as Flacco was only sacked once all game, and that is not to mention all the running lanes the line opened up for Rice.
Believe it or now, the Patriots are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 playoff games overall including 2-7 ATS here at home. The Ravens meanwhile are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 playoff road games. Also, the underdogs are now 3-0-1 ATS in the last four head-to-head meetings with two of those underdog covers being by Baltimore in the playoffs.
Pick: OVER 51.5Comment
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