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Play On - Home favorites of 10 or more points (NC STATE) after scoring 55 points or less against opponent after scoring 60 points or less 3 straight games.
41-15 since 1997. ( 73.2% 24.5 units )
CBB ILLINOIS ST at S ILLINOIS
Play Against - Home teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (S ILLINOIS) off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season.
148-88 since 1997. ( 62.7% 55.2 units )
2-2 this year. ( 50.0% 0.2 units )
CBB CLEMSON at NC STATE
Play Against - Favorites of 6 or more points vs. the first half line (NC STATE) good 3PT shooting team (>=36.5%) against an average 3PT shooting team (32-36.5%), after a game where a team made 33% of their shots or worse.
46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% 26.2 units )
1-2 this year. ( 33.3% -1.2 units )
Indiana* over Northwestern by 26
If they beat Illinois on Thursday, then this probably will go worse for Northwestern
than it already figured to go.
INDIANA, 90-64.
Northern Iowa* over Drake by 15
Drake entered the week 1-4 SU in Missouri Valley play, all four losses by 10 points or
more. UNI likes that Drake has been a weak rebounding team.
Illinois State over Southern Illinois* by 2
What a joke Illinois State has become. They entered the week 0-5 SU in Missouri
Valley play, all five in a row, and will be coming here from Wichita State, Their bench
scored only 5 points in a home loss to Drake last Saturday!
ILLINOIS STATE, 66-64.
North Carolina State* over Clemson by 15
Nothing on Clemson’s 2012-13 resume suggests that they should hang close in this
match-up. Wolfpack have revenge for an OT road loss in late February last season and
will have had a buffer game at Maryland in between the Duke court-storming win
(not an upset! How is that an upset?!) and this.
NO. CAROLINA STATE, 79-64.
NBA
***BEST BET
*Toronto over Los Angeles Lakers by 8
Note the early start time. The Raptors are the only team in the league that has a consistent early Sunday starting time – and it gives them an edge. They’ve covered four of
the past five times in these instances, including beating Minnesota by 19, Orlando by
11 and Houston by seven as a ‘dog. Many NBA players live an active late night
lifestyle, especially if they didn’t have a game on Saturday night which the visiting
Lakers didn’t. So the Raptors’ familiarity in this role gives them a big edge. Toronto
also is 4-2 ATS as a home ‘dog this season.
TORONTO 106-98.
Dallas over *Orlando by 1
Glen Davis might be the unsung MVP in the league since the Magic can’t seem to win
without him dropping the first 11 games he missed. Orlando was 9-3 ATS in its last
12 matchups versus Western Conference foes, though.
DALLAS 97-96.
*Detroit over Boston by 1
The Celtics take to the road for the first time in two weeks. Boston has covered just
35 percent of its away matchups this season.
DETROIT 99-98.
*Denver over Oklahoma City by 2
The teams just faced each other five days ago. The Nuggets were 10-5 ATS in their
first 15 games at Pepsi Center. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook draw the attention, but the Thunder is going to need another big performance from Serge Ibaka,
who was second in the league in blocked shots per game and No. 3 in field goal percentage, to keep Denver in check on the boards.
DENVER 107-105.
Play Under - All teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 after going over the total by 36 or more points total in their last five games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season.
107-57 over the last 5 seasons. ( 65.2% 44.3 units )
11-3 this year. ( 78.6% 7.7 units )
NBA OKLAHOMA CITY at DENVER
Play On - Favorites vs. the money line (OKLAHOMA CITY) after a close win by 3 points or less against opponent after a game where both teams scored 105 points or more.
72-17 over the last 5 seasons. ( 80.9% 39.2 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% -0.1 units )
NBA LA LAKERS at TORONTO
Play Under - All teams where the first half total is greater than 100 good rebounding team - giving up <=11 off. rebounds/game on the season, on Sunday games.
183-108 since 1997. ( 62.9% 64.2 units )
6-3 this year. ( 66.7% 2.7 units )
I thought the Canucks came out flat yesterday and I expect them to rebound at home today against Edmonton. The Oilers are making their season debut today and I just think they are getting a Vancouver on a bad night after the Canucks got embarrassed at home by the Anaheim Ducks last night.
ATLANTA FALCONS (14-3) +4 over San Francisco 49ers (12-4-1) Prediction: Falcons by 3-4 Weather: Played indoors at the Georgia Dome Starting Time: 3:05 TV: FOX Comments: --For the record the Atlanta Falcons are the biggest home underdog since the playoffs expanded to 10 teams in 1978 and are the biggest home underdog in any game in conference championship history. The public has bet the San Francisco 49ers as if this game had already been played and the only reason Bookmakers have not raised the number off the -4 is the fact they don’t want to make it 4 ½ and then get “middled” since the game opened with the 49ers a 3-point favorite. My figures made the game a pick’em which means a case can be made for both sides to win it straight up. The one edge Atlanta has is the home field and I think that will make the difference in this contest between two teams with contrasting offensive styles of play—Atlanta with its explosive passing game (279.9 yards per game) and the 49ers go with their trademark running game (165.5 yards per game). The +4 is a big edge for a team rated dead-even, and I will take it.
NFL Championship Playoff Game Of Year
100 Units Ravens (+7½) over Patriots
American Football Conference Conference Championship Game of the Year 100 Units Baltimore Ravens (12-6) +7 ½ over NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (13-4) Prediction: Ravens by 3-4 Weather: The AccuWeather forecast for the game: Gusty winds and brutal cold will arrive just in time for the Baltimore Ravens vs. New England Patriots AFC Championship game on Sunday. A cold front will move through Foxboro, Mass., on Sunday afternoon, giving way to strong winds and falling temperatures. The AccuWeather predicted temperature for kickoff is 33 degrees F, with sustained winds between 15 and 25 mph. According to Senior Meteorologist Dave Samuel the wind-chill factor will make temperatures for the kickoff in the lower 20s. Starting Time: 6:35 TV: CBS Comments: A brief history of the series: Baltimore and New England met in the third week of the season, in Baltimore, and the Ravens won, 31-30, as a 3-point favorite. In that game, the Ravens out-yarded the Patriots 503 to 396. New England and Baltimore met in the AFC championship game last season, in Foxborough, and the Patriots won, 23-20, as a 7-point favorite. Five of the last six meetings between the Ravens and Patriots have been decided by 6 or fewer points. There is no dispute on my part New England should be the favorite in this game, but not by the inflated public number of -7 ½, down from -9 at the open. This is a fierce rivalry and one can make a strong case for either to win the game straight up, making the Ravens almost an automatic play. New England obviously is a tough team to beat at home and stands 4-0 there in its last AFC championship games but hidden in the numbers is the fact that while the Patriots are 10-2 straight up in their last 12 playoff games they are 2-8 against the spread in their last 10. Bookmakers know the public believes New England is invincible at home and they make it pay a premium price of at least a point or two to back the Patriots and that again makes the ‘dog the choice in this one. Now factor into the equation the current performance profile of much-maligned Ravens Joe Flacco who is playing lights out right now. When new offensive coordinator Jim Caldwell took over the play-calling in Week 15 he turned Flacco lose, letting him anytime he wished run the no-huddle offense—something the quarterback had begged for three seasons to do. Since Flacco was given that option, he has thrown nine touchdown passes with just one interception. It also is of note he has won five playoff road games, tying him with Peyton Manning as the only two quarterbacks in post-season history to do this. The figures say the Ravens, who are 8-5 in road playoff games, are ready to play one of their best games and that should get them the cover and the outright win.
10 Units
49ers/Falcons OVER 48½ Points
ATLANTA FALCONS-San Francisco 49ers over 48 ½ Points Prediction: 51 or more points will be scored Comments: Both teams are going to get their points in this one and those who have been brain-washed to believe San Francisco does it with defense have missed the fact eight of the last 49ers games have gone over, including the last five.
5 Units
Side/Total Parlay
Falcons (+4) over 49ers
49ers/Falcons OVER 48½ Points
4000 units Patriots -7½ over Ravens Too much offense for this defense and I'm a little impressed with this Patriots defense. I think this is going to be an easy Pats victory as the Ray Lewis era comes to an end in an ugly way.
2000 units Falcons +4½ over 49ers If Pete Carroll doesn't play prevent for the last 30 seconds of the game, this game is in San Fran this weekend. I don't know if the zone read will work against the Falcons defense. They are pretty disciplined. Offensively the Falcon receivers and tight ends are a mismatch size wise for the 49ers defense. These guys are big and aggressive and I'm pretty sure they are going to have their way with the 49ers corners. I'll take the 4.5 points at home as the Niners are much better in San Fran than they are on the road.
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