1-20-13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sean Pendergast

49ers -4 over FALCONS

Every gambling metric in this game screams "TAKE THE FALCONS!!" The Falcons are the biggest home underdog in the history of the conference championship round and in the history of number one overall seeds. Last week, Seattle (a team that smoked these same 49ers in Week 16 of the NFL regular season 42-13) was a three point underdog to the Falcons in Atlanta. Now, I'm guessing based largely on the images of Colin Kaepernick running shredding the Packers defense like they were a high school team last week, the Niners are four point favorites. A seven point swing!? Wow.
On the other hand, if you're even thinking about pushing "SEND" on an Atlanta wager, don't those images horrify you? Aren't you going to feel stupid when Kaepernick is in his fourth or fifth dead sprint for another explosive gain by the third quarter? When Frank Gore is pounding an Atlanta defense that gives up 4.7 yards per carry, won't you feel like a dope? You will.
Yes, Matt Ryan has won 85 percent of his home games since coming into the league in 2008, but I have a little theory that before I decide on whom to bet, I take one last look at a Google image of their head coach. If there are enough pictures of them to remind me of how beleaguered they are in big game situations, it's oppo time, kids!
I'll take Harbaugh over Smith, all day long.

Prediction: 49ers 27, Falcons 19




Ravens +8 1/2 over PATRIOTS

If you recall last week, the story about the spread on the Texans-Patriots game went like this:
"The Texans were only a three point road dog in December against the Patriots, and on the strength of a 42-14 Pats win, the line moved all the way to 9 points at kickoff. Wow, six points is a huge move based on one bad night for the Texans. That doesn't seem right!"
Well, it turns out it was spot on, to the point where a late field goal wound up blowing the cover for many Texans bettors who bought the spread up to 10 points (looks in mirror).
So now here come the Ravens, who were 3-point favorites in Baltimore during the regular season, and beat the Patriots on a last-second replacement referee aided field goal. So if you swing the home field around for this game by six points, and consider the two teams played virtually even during the regular season, then we would expect a 3 or maybe 3 1/2-point spread, right? Especially considering the Ravens have proven time and again to be, at worst, a formidable, crazy tough out for New England, no?
Well, the Ravens are an 8 1/2 point underdog, a 5 1/2 point swing from where the line "should" be. So we are right back to where we were with the Texans last weekend, with an underdog who has perceived value. Now, before you get scared away by the egg the Texans laid last weekend, understand this -- unlike the Texans, the Ravens don't fear the Patriots. The Ravens have balls.
In their last six match-ups, each team is 3-3 against the spread, with the Patriots covering by a total of five points and the Ravens covering by a total of 44 points. Tom Brady's quarterback rating is 14 points lower against the Ravens than it is versus the rest of the league. The Patriots have won 14 of 16 playoff games, but covered only 2 of their 10.
On top of that, this Ray Lewis retirement festival is starting to take on that "team of destiny" feel, and Joe Flacco's long-term contract is beginning to feel like a reality. I can't believe I'm doing this....

Prediction: Ravens 34, Patriots 31

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Preferred Picks

5* Baltimore
3* Atlanta

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jimmy Boyd

3* Atlanta Falcons +5

3* New England Pats -8.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Conference Title Games

Last six times #1 seed played #2 seed in NFC title game, #1 seed won, but dogs covered four of last five NFC title games overall. Over last five years, underdogs are 6-4 vs spread in this round. Atlanta is underdog at home despite 8-1 mark in Georgia Dome, with only loss in meaningless Week 17 game. Smith/Ryan combo got monkey off back with first playoff win last week; they have Falcons here for first time since 27-10 loss at Philly eight years ago. 49ers lost this game at home LY, but now have more mobile Kaepernick at QB-- he dominated game against Green Bay last week, running ball for 181 yards, passing for 263 after throwing an early pik-6. SF is 2-2 in domes this year, losing at Rams/Vikings, winning at Cardinals/Saints. Eight of last nine Niner games went over total, including last five in row; six of last eight Atlanta games stayed under.

Since 1990, #4 seeds are 6-1 in conference title games, with '08 Cardinals only team that was at home; #4 seeds are 4-0 SU at #2 seeds in this round. Patriots (+3) led 13-0 after first quarter, lost 31-30 to Ravens in Baltimore back in Week 3, in flagfest (24 accepted penalties/218 yards) where Baltimore gained total of 503 yards, with Flacco averaging 9.8 ypa less than 24 hours after WR Smith (6 catches, 127 yards) lost his brother in motorcycle accident. Game ended on FG by rookie PK Tucker, who replaced Cundiff after he missed tying FG at end of LY's AFC title game, won 23-20 by Patriots (-7). Ravens playing with emotion trying to get leader Lewis into Super Bowl in his last year playing. Last time same two teams played in same stadium in consecutive conference title games was in '78-'79, when Oilers lost twice in Pittsburgh. 12 of last 15 Patriot games went over.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL conference championship betting trends January 18, 2013 9:57 PM by Bob Christ

Special To GamingToday

For the 17th time since the merger, a home team in the conference title round has been installed as an underdog. This time it’s the top-seeded Falcons against the long-distance-traveling 49ers.

Perhaps strangely, these underdogs are only 8-8 ATS, but have paid off nicely for money-line bettors along the way by going 8-8 SU. That could be a wise option here.

This is also only the third time since the current seeding system was instituted in 1990 that a No. 1 seed was in this underdog spot: The host New York Giants routed the second-seeded Minnesota Vikings 41-0 in 2000 and in 1997 San Francisco was a 23-10 loser at home to defending champ Green Bay, which was a 2½-point choice.

Also, in a trend mentioned last week, since 2007 teams are now 10-2 ATS as a playoff underdog of 8-plus points and 8-4 straight up. Included was Baltimore’s stunner in Denver last week, 38-35 in OT, as a 9-point ’dog.

Can the Ravens do it again this week at New England?

The Patriots of all teams should know. In their first Super season, in 2001, they beat Pittsburgh in the AFC title game as a 10-point underdog and then downed the 14-point-favorite Rams in the Super Bowl.

And, good luck figuring out the OVER/UNDERS this week. In the wild-card round, each of the four UNDERS were winners by at least 8 points. In the divisional round, all four OVERS were good by at least 10. In fact, if you played OVER for the Grand Salami (185 points), you had the victory clinched well before Sunday’s late game.

Maybe this will help: OVERS are 15-7 in this round since 2001.

Now for a closer look at this week’s conference clashes:



PRO FOOTBALL NFC CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS – SUNDAY, JAN. 20

49ers (12-4-1) at Falcons (14-3)

Time: Noon PST

Line: 49ers -3½ (49)

Weather: Indoors

Facts: Colin Kaepernick’s 181 rushing yards last week for SF were more than Peyton Manning has had the past decade.

• Atlanta averages 3.7 yards a run and yields 4.8. That differential of minus 1.1 yards is the third worst for a Final Four team in the Super Bowl era. In 1960, however, the Eagles were champs despite a negative 1.7 margin (3.2/4.9).

• The host Falcons squandered a 20-point lead to Seattle last week, but won 30-28 on a late FG. Had Atlanta lost, it would have matched the biggest collapse by a home playoff team. In the 1957 game to decide the Western Conference title, SF blew a 27-7 lead in a 31-27 loss to Detroit.

• The 49ers, who lost in this round last year, are trying to become the 10th team since the merger to lose in a conference final one year and win the crown the next, but only the second to do so on the road (Rams 1979).

Analysis: The 49ers mauled Green Bay 45-31 last week with four TD drives of 80-plus yards, including back-to-back 93-yard marches late, gaining 323 rushing along the way. It was the weekend’s most dominating performance.

They should be fueled this week going 6-0 SU/ATS the past two seasons playing in the Eastern time zone (the other three West Coast teams in that span are a cumulative 8-16 SU and 9-14-1 ATS).

Atlanta, meanwhile, had no answer for stopping rookie QB Russell Wilson last week when he led the Seahawks’ charge. But what might work in the Falcons’ favor is that they finally broke through for their first playoff victory in Mike Smith-Matt Ryan regime. And since they also enter here as an underdog, perhaps some of the pressure will be lifted. Thus…

Forecast: Falcons 28, 49ers 24



PRO FOOTBALL AFC CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS

Ravens (12-6) at Patriots (13-4)

Time: 3:30 p.m. PST

Line: Patriots -8 (51)

Weather: Low 30s; wind 15-17 mph

Facts: In the five-season John Harbaugh-Joe Flacco era, this marks their ninth road playoff adventure (4-4 SU/5-3 ATS) with the Ravens. Conversely, this is the 14th postseason home outing for the Bill Belichick-Tom Brady bunch, where they are 11-2 SU, 6-6-1 ATS).

• Baltimore beat Denver last week despite yielding a kickoff and punt return score. The last team to survive two such TDs and win was Baltimore in 2011, when defeating the Jets 34-17.

• Enemy QBs have fumbled a league-high 19 times vs. New England this season, losing 10. Baltimore’s numbers are at 12/6, including two fumbles last week by Peyton Manning (losing one), matching his total for the season.

• Baltimore’s offense was ranked 16th and its defense 17th this season. The last Super team to be out of the top 15 in both categories was NE in 2001 (19/24).

• The Ravens’ defense has been on the field 87 plays in each of the past two weeks. That 174 total is the most over a two-week span for anyone the past five seasons.

Analysis: The Ravens’ 31-30 victory over the Patriots in Week 3, the only time the past 27 games NE wasn’t a favorite (+2½), wasn’t a fluke. Baltimore had four TD drives of 80-plus yards, including two of 92, which tied for the league high this season.

On the other hand, one of the Patriots’ scores was a 6-yard drive, the only time this season NE’s offense was set up inside the 10. Plus, the Patriots will be without one of Brady’s favorite targets, TE Rob Gronkowski – Or “Gonk,” as Boston’s mayor says. He is out with a broken arm. That’s a big deal.

The Ravens seem to have a bottomless pit of adrenaline to be capable of pulling another upset. At least enough to beat the line, anyway.

Forecast: Patriots 31, Ravens 30

Last week: 1-3 ATS; 3-1 SU

Season ATS: 129-124-6 (.510).

Season SU: 154-109-1 (.586)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Richard Saber @ Gaming Today

SUNDAY

NFC championship

San Francisco 49ers -3½ at Atlanta Falcons (48½): This game opened at -3 and I agree with the move. Atlanta has been lucky all season long, winning ugly with the exception of blowing out the Giants on Dec. 16. These two teams did not play in the regular season. If the time out was not called the 49ers would be meeting the Seahawks for the third time. If the 49ers could travel to New England and get the win as they did back in October they will win this one with their ice water running QB. 49ERS.

AFC championship

Baltimore Ravens +9½ at New England Patriots (51): How the Ravens beat the Broncos is still a mystery to me, but they did. The Pats beat them last year in this same spot 23-20. The Ravens did beat the Pats in Baltimore this year 31-30. No matter what, we must take the points in a high scoring game with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. RAVENS/OVER.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mark Mayer @ Gaming Today

Last week: 0-3-1.

NFC

49ers -3½ at Falcons: Atlanta is the top seed, at home and a sizable underdog. General thought is if Robert Wilson gave the Atlanta defense so much trouble, imagine what Colin Kaepernick would do. OK, but this is the Georgia Dome and Matt Ryan has a great record there. ATLANTA.

AFC

Ravens +9½ at Patriots: An even more curious number than the NFC title game. I would think this line will come down a bit during the week. At 9½ and judging upon recent history, including the one point Ravens win at Baltimore, it just seems like too many points. Buy now if you like the dog. BALTIMORE.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Andy Iskoe

49ers -3½ at Falcons (48.5): San Francisco was, in many respects, more impressive in its win than were the Falcons. The 49ers did have to come from behind in its win over Green Bay, falling behind 7-0 and 14-7 before taking a 24-21 halftime lead. After the Packers tied the game in the middle of the third quarter at 24, the Niners then scored 21 straight points in what turned out to be a 45-31 win.

The Falcons had a dominant first half in their win over Seattle, building a 20-0 lead at the half which was then 27-7 into the fourth quarter. But then Seattle did what it had been doing all season and they rallied to take a 28-27 lead with a half minute remaining. Atlanta then dramatically moved downfield and got the game winning FG in a 30-28 win.

The win ended all that talk about how these Falcons could not win a playoff game, and, as it turned out, it did not come easy. As such the Falcons are rare home underdogs in a Conference Championship game. Since 1990 this will be just the eighth time that a team has been a home underdog in the game that decides who will go to the Super Bowl. The line is similar to the previous seven games that saw the home team close from 2.5 to 3.5 point underdogs.

Atlanta has won the last four meetings against the 49ers dating back to 2004. The last two wins have come with Smith as coach and Matt Ryan at QB but both were before Jim Harbaugh took over as San Francisco coach in 2011 Atlanta has the better offensive stats but the edges are very slim.

San Francisco has a huge edge in total defense (No. 3 versus 24) point the game is considerably narrower when looking at points allowed (No. 1 versus No. 5 and an edge for the Niners of just 1.6 points per game). The Falcons fared much better in their revenge matchup, shutting out the Giants 34-0 in a late season game that had more practical implications and a sense of urgency for the then 8-5 Giants than for the 11-2 Falcons who were all but certain to lock up the No. 1 NFC seed at the time.

The Falcons won and covered both games in which they were underdogs this season, at San Diego in week three and at Philadelphia in midseason. They are 8-1 SU at home with the lone loss coming in a meaningless game in Week 17. Expect a much more focused effort this week if Atlanta gets out in front. An upset is clearly possible but getting at least a FG is attractive. FALCONS.

Ravens +9½ at Patriots (51): This should be yet another physical contest between teams that know each other very well. The Pats will be without star TE Rob Gronkowski as he reinjured his forearm and is out for the balance of the Playoffs. This will be Baltimore’s twelfth playoff game since 2008. The Ravens are 7-4 both SU and ATS in the prior 11, including 5-4 on the road. The Pats have played just six Playoff games in the same stretch, going 3-3 SU but 2-4 ATS in those games.

New England has won 4 of the last five meetings with the Ravens, including the win in last season’s Conference Championship game. The four wins, all since 2007, have been by three, six, three and three points. The lone loss came at home in the 2010 playoffs when Baltimore won handily 33-14, and, as noted earlier, ended a streak of 11 straight home Playoff wins by New England that dated back to 1996, the last 8 of which were in the Belichick/Brady era that dates back to 2001.

New England has the better offense, ranking first in the NFL in both yards per game and points scored. Baltimore was just average in total offense (16) but did rank tenth in points scored. New England ranked number 25 in total defense but 9 in points allowed. The Ravens were 17 in total defense but improved to 12 in points allowed.

Both offenses excel at protecting the football. Each lost just 16 turnovers during the regular season. While Baltimore’s defense forced 25 turnovers the Pats were even better, creating 41 takeaways, an average of one per game more than the usually aggressive Ravens. After announcing his retirement at the conclusion of their season, the Ravens future Hall of Fame linebacker Ray Lewis has helped his team win twice in these playoffs, including the huge upset in Denver.

Recent history of these teams against each other, and the overall playoffs experience of the underdog Ravens, suggest that this will be another competitive game. RAVENS.

Record

Last Week

1-2-1

NFL

121-116-2

playoffs

1-2-1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Larry Ness

10* Las Vegas Insider "Total GOY"
Game: San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons
Prediction: OVER

Reason: Form held in the divisional round of the NFC, as the top-seeded Falcons and 2nd-seeded 49ers advanced to the championship game. However, the teams took totally different paths. The Falcons dominated the first half (led 20-0) and took a 27-7 lead into the fourth quarter vs the Seahawks, before ‘coughing up’ the lead in the final 30 seconds. Amazingly, ”Matty Ice” was just that, completing back-to-back passes of 22 and 19 yards to set up Matt Bryant’s game-winning 49-yard FG. As for the 49ers, they broke open a close game (tied 24-all in the early third quarter) in the second half, as Colin Kaepernick rushed for a quarterback-record 181 yards (regular or postseason) while adding two rushing TDs plus overcame an early interception returned for a TD by throwing for 263 more yards with two TD strikes. Kaepernick had a 98.7 QB rating while going 6-2 as a starter since taking over for Alex Smith but the jury was still out. That is until last weekend, as his overall performance in San Fran’s 45-31 divisional round victory over Green Bay seemingly makes San Francisco a more dangerous opponent than it was a year ago. The Falcons finally won that first p[alyoff game of the Smith/Ryan era and one can’t ignore that Atlanta has now earned the NFC’s top seed in TWO of the last three seasons. "Our goal is not to win one playoff game," said Matt Ryan, who was 24 of 35 for 250 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions against the Seahawks. "Our goals are still in front of us. We still have two more games to go. That's the mindset I have. That's the mindset this team has." Atlanta’s D is much better than Green Bay’s but mobile, athletic and versatile QBs have given the Falcons trouble this season. Carolina's Cam Newton threw for 502 yards with four TDs and no picks while rushing for 202 and two scores in two games against them in 2012. Then, in last Sunday's 30-28 win over Seattle, Seahawks rookie Russell Wilson passed for 385 yards with two TDs and an INT while running for 60 yards and a score on just seven carries. "These young guys, they are athletic and they can run," DC Mike Nolan said. "That creates a whole new set of problems." Atlanta surrendered 5.90 yards per play this season (29th in the league) and allowed the Seahawks to average a whopping 7.44 in the divisional round. As for San Francisco’s defense, it ranked 4th in total yards (308.2 YPG) last season and 1st in points allowed (14.3 per). This year’s team finished 3rd in yards allowed (294.4 per) and about a FG higher in points allowed at 17.1 PPG. That said, one can’t ignore that the 49ers allowed 34 points at New England in Week 15, 42 points up in Seattle in Week 16 and 31 points last Saturday to the 49ers in that 14-point win. Matt Ryan was far from perfect last weekend but after going 0-3 in his previous postseason games (194.7 YPG with three TDs, four INTs, 10 sacks and a 71.2 QB rating), his performance last Sunday seemed almost Montana-like in comparison. Ryan has arguably the NFL’s best three-man receiving corps in WRs White (100 / 13.0 YPC / 8 TDs) and Jones (54 / 17.8 YPC / 8 TDs) plus future Hall of fame TE Gonzalez (80 / 10.9 YPC / 7 TDs). Ryan’s faced the 49ers twice before, completing 64.0 percent of his passes for 602 yards with three TDs and three INTs while going 2-0 against them (note: both meetings were before Jim Harbaugh took over as San Francisco coach in 2011). Meanwhile, the 49ers showcased an offense last weekend which gained 29 FDs and 579 total yards. The 49ers ran for 323 yards on 7.5 YPC (Gore had a ‘quiet’ 119 yards on 23 yards in support of Kaepernick) plus added 256 yards passing. In the perfect conditions of the Georgia Dome, this game has all the makings of a shoot-out and that’s EXACTLY what I expect. Go over!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rickjs Handicapping Picks Sunday College Hoops


1 Unit Play
815 Clemson +10

[Can'tPickAWinner]

EAGLE EYE SPORTS---ROBERT HENZIE
5* Atlanta Falcons+3
5* New England Patriots-10

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Indian Cowboy

4-Unit Play #301 Take San Francisco/Atlanta UNDER 49 (Sunday @ 3pm est)

4-Unit Play #303 Take Baltimore/New England UNDER 51.5 (Saturday @ 6:30pm est)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Robert Ferringo

2-Unit Play. Take #303 Baltimore (+8.5) over New England (6:30 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 20)

1-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 51.5 Baltimore at New England (6:30 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 20)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gill Alexander

3* GOW - Baltimore+9

2* San Francisco-4.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFC Championship Betting Preview: 49ers at Falcons

San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons (+3.5, 48)

The San Francisco 49ers are returning to the NFC championship game for the second time in as many years, but this time the offense is significantly different. Colin Kaepernick put together one of the most dynamic performances for a quarterback in playoff history to help topple Green Bay on Saturday in the divisional round and will be looking to repeat the effort when the 49ers visit the top-seeded Atlanta Falcons on Sunday.

The Falcons got a strong performance of their own from quarterback Matt Ryan in the divisional round but will be home underdogs against San Francisco after squandering a big lead and needing a late field goal to survive the Seattle Seahawks. Atlanta is 8-1 at home, including the playoff victory, but has serious questions about its defense after surrendering 21 fourth-quarter points in the divisional win. Kaepernick has proven he is equally comfortable throwing the ball and pulling it down to run - a combination Atlanta struggled against with Russell Wilson last weekend.

TV: 3 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE: The 49ers opened as 3.5-point road favorites has have been bet up as high as -4. The total has moved from 48 to 48.5.

ABOUT THE 49ERS (12-4-1, 10-7 ATS): Kaepernick faced the questions that any first-time starter faces going into his first playoff game and answered every one against the Packers. After throwing an interception on his first series, Kaepernick set a playoff record for rushing yards by a quarterback with 181 and passed for 276, totaling four touchdowns along the way. The 25-year-old made a strong connection with wide receiver Michael Crabtree and helped open things up on the ground for Frank Gore, who rushed for over 100 yards (119) for the first time since Week 7. Defensively, San Francisco finished third in the NFL during the regular season but showed some cracks in the first half against Aaron Rodgers and company in the divisional round. Defensive tackle Justin Smith is dealing with a torn triceps and the 49ers struggled at times to get pressure on Rodgers.

ABOUT THE FALCONS (14-3, 9-7-1 ATS): Ryan does not have the same ability to escape the pocket that Rodgers has and will need more from his offensive line against the San Francisco pass rush. Ryan finally proved he could win a playoff game last weekend, throwing three touchdown passes and driving Atlanta for the game-winning field goal in the final seconds. Overlooked is the fact that the Falcons’ defense put Ryan in the position to come back by breaking down in the fourth quarter. Ranked 24th in the regular season, Atlanta’s defense allowed Wilson to pass for 385 yards and rush for another 60 while squandering a 20-point lead. Defensive end John Abraham, who will be one of the keys to keeping Kaepernick in the pocket, tweaked his ankle against the Seahawks and is listed as questionable for this week, though the Falcons expect him to play. Atlanta has had trouble with mobile quarterbacks like Wilson and Cam Newton, who used a similar read-option offense to put up 58 points in two regular-season games.

TRENDS:

* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Underdog is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings.
* 49ers are 24-11-1 ATS in their last 36 games overall.
* Falcons are 0-5 ATS in their last five playoff games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The 49ers (1995) and the Falcons (1999) have gone a combined 32 years without a Super Bowl appearance.

2. The teams have not met since the 2010 regular season, when Ryan led a game-winning drive for a field goal with two seconds left in a 16-14 triumph. Atlanta has taken four straight in the series.

3. San Francisco LT Joe Staley suffered a bruised arm in the divisional round and is listed as probable for Sunday.