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Today's NFL Picks
Baltimore vs. San Francisco
The 49ers look to build on their 9-3 ATS record in their last 12 non-conference games. San Francisco is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the 49ers favored by 6. Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-3 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.
SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 3
Time Posted: 9:00 a.m. EST (1/22)Game 101-102: Baltimore vs. San Francisco (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 136.325; San Francisco 142.495
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 6; 44
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 3 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-3 1/2); Under -
DCI Pro Football
The Daniel Curry Index
Super Bowl Predictions
Sunday, February 3, 2013
Super Bowl XLVII
at Mercedes Benz Superdome, New Orleans
San Francisco vs. Baltimore: TOO CLOSE TO CALLComment
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Super Bowl XLVII Prop Pick of the Day
The lead-up to the Super Bowl can be the longest two weeks of a sports bettor’s life. Thankfully, some of Covers Experts sharpest minds are willing to hold you over with a Super Bowl prop pick for each day heading into the Big Game on February 3.
Matt Fargo – First score of the game will be…
Touchdown (-150)
Field goal/safety (+120)
Pick: Field goal/safety (+120)
Nine of the last 14 Super Bowls have seen a field goal or a safety lead off the scoring and at favorable odds here, I like that to continue. These are two strong offensive teams but the Super Bowl will tighten up even the best of them. Over these last 14 Super Bowls, there have been an average of only 5.6 ppg scored in the first quarter, so touchdowns have been rare.Comment
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Super Bowl XLVII Prop Pick of the Day
The lead-up to the Super Bowl can be the longest two weeks of a sports bettor’s life. Thankfully, some of Covers Experts sharpest minds are willing to hold you over with a Super Bowl prop pick for each day heading into the Big Game on February 3.
January 24
Sean Murphy - Team that scores first wins game
Yes (-175)
No (+135)
Pick: No (+135)
Both the Ravens and 49ers are comfortable playing from behind. In fact, that's when they've played some of their best football in these playoffs. The Ravens rallied back from four deficits in Denver. They gave up the game's opening score and trailed by six points at halftime in New England. San Francisco fell behind 7-0 against Green Bay and needed to fight back from a 17-0 hole in Atlanta. No surprise if an early score serves to galvanize the opposition in New Orleans.
Odds courtesy of bet365.com.
January 23
Steve Merril - Highest scoring half
First half (-115)
Second half (-105)
Pick: Second half (-105)
Over the past decade, the first quarter of the Super Bowl has been low scoring and the fourth quarter has been high scoring, which gives this prop value. The Ravens rank seventh with an average of 13.1 points scored in the second half while the 49ers rank fourth with an average of 14.7 points scored in the second half. In the Playoffs, Baltimore averaged 16.3 points in the second half while the 49ers averaged 17.5 in the final two quarters.
Odds courtesy of bet365.com.
January 22
Matt Fargo – First score of the game will be…
Touchdown (-150)
Field goal/safety (+120)
Pick: Field goal/safety (+120)
Nine of the last 14 Super Bowls have seen a field goal or a safety lead off the scoring and at favorable odds here, I like that to continue. These are two strong offensive teams but the Super Bowl will tighten up even the best of them. Over these last 14 Super Bowls, there have been an average of only 5.6 ppg scored in the first quarter, so touchdowns have been rare.Comment
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Mike Scalleat, Las Vegas handicapper
Baltimore Ravens (+155) over San Francisco 49ersComment
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PowerSweep
FORECAST: 49ers/Ravens: UNDER 48 RATING: 2★Comment
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Bob Balfe
49ersComment
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NFL Super Bowl XLVII betting trends and notes
By MARC LAWRENCE
Unlike Romulus and Remus, Jim and John Harbaugh will not be fighting to a terrible death. Instead, they are the first pair of brothers to coach against each other in a Super Bowl.
In addition, this game marks Baltimore linebacker Ray Lewis’ last game in his NFL career. The mercurial future Hall of Famer and Super Bowl XXXV MVP will be performing his final dance at the Superdome on February 3.
As such, Super Bowl XLVII will be filled with plenty of firsts… and lasts.
Let’s take a look at how Baltimore and San Francisco arrived to New Orleans and what history says about their chances of hoisting the trophy.
All results are ATS (against the spread) unless noted otherwise.
Oh, brother
Baltimore’s John Harbaugh has been at his best when playing with a week or more of rest in his NFL career, going 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS. In addition, John is 30-12 SU against teams he managed to defeat in a previous meeting.
The Ravens downed the Niners, 16-6, on Thanksgiving Day last year, marking the only time Brother Jim has come up short in a non-conference tilt, as he is 7-1 SU and ATS against the AFC. That ties into his 19-5 SU and 18-4-2 ATS record in all games played outside the NFC West division.
Under his lead, San Francisco is an eye-opening 25-1-1 SU in games in which it rushes the ball 25 or more times a game.
In addition, the Harbaughs bring smiles to the face of over players with Jim going 10-1 SU and 8-2-1 over/under in games when the total is set at more than 43 points, while John is 5-1-1 over/under in games identically set at more than 43 points.
Warning: 12 of the 18 Super Bowl games on artificial turf have played under the total.
Advantage: Even
Commonality
These two teams squared off against two common opponents on 2012, the New England Patriots and the New York Giants.
The Ravens were 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS, winning the total yardage stats by an average 127 yards per game.
The Niners went 1-1 SU and ATS despite being out-yarded in both games by an average 86 yards per game.
In head-to-head games against fellow playoff squads this season, Baltimore went 4-3 SU and ATS and 3-4 ITS (In The Stats), while San Francisco was 5-2 SU and 3-3-1 ATS and 3-4 ITS.
Advantage: Ravens
Not so sweet favorites
The sporting public loves backing favorites and when it comes to the Super Bowl it’s like putting kids in a candy store. They go crazy.
As a result the public today suffers from a severe case of betting diabetes. That’s because overloading on these super-sweet favorites has proven to be an unhealthy experience, with favorites sporting a 20-12 SU and 13-17-2 ATS record, including 5-10-2 ATS the last 17 games.
Super Bowl favorites (read: San Francisco) taking on opponents off back-to-back SU and ATS wins are just 13-10 SU and 7-14-2 ATS.
Twenty-eight points is the cut-line for favorites in Super Bowl games. Since 1980, those who failed to score 28 points in the big game are 1-16-1 ATS. Those who managed to tally 28 or more points are 12-1-1 ATS.
FYI: Baltimore has surrendered 28 or more points in 13 of 93 games under John Harbaugh, including twice in 12 playoff games.
Advantage: Ravens
Conference call
Much like the National League’s one-time mastery over the American League, the NFC has held the upper hand over the AFC in Super Bowl games since the 1980 season, going 21-10 SU and 20-9-3 ATS, including 4-0 SU and ATS the last four years.
However, the NFC is only 6-9 SU and 8-6-1 ATS in the last 13 Super Bowl contests.
Ironically this game marks the seventh year in a row that the NFC representative squared off against the AFC East in its designated non-conference clashes.
This is only the second time in the last 11 years the AFC is the underdog.
Advantage: Niners
Statistically speaking
Baltimore’s 364 yards per game offense is 11th best in the league while it’s 361 YPG defense ranks No. 21.
San Francisco owns a Top-10 ranked offense and defense, averaging 375 YPG on offense and 308 YPG On defense.
From Game 9 out, or the 2nd half of the season, the Ravens’ net yardage (offense gained and defense allowed) improved 31 YPG. Surprisingly, the Niners’ net yardage slipped 29 YPG over the same span.
Advantage: Even
Defense rules… most of the time
It’s no surprise that 39 of the 46 Super Bowl winners have owned Top-10 ranked defenses.
What is surprising, though, is that while clubs with the better defense have gone 22-10 SU and 17-13-2 ATS in the big game since 1981, these teams are only 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS over the last six years.
Advantage: NinersComment
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Bob Harvey Sports
3* San Francisco -4 over Baltimore
TOTAL: Under 48Comment
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Football Jesus Free pick Super Bowl : 49ers moneyline betComment
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Little Sal Riccordi NFL Playoff TOY
UNDERComment
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Bob Balfe
20 Super Bowl XLVII Prop Bets
Super Bowl XLVII Prop Bets
Here are my 20 NFL Super Bowl Prop Bets.
SUPER BOWL XLVII - Will a Field Goal be Scored in the 1st Quarter?
YES -115
SUPER BOWL XLVII - Will there be More Points Scored in the
First Half +110
SUPER BOWL XLVII - Longest Touchdown Scored in the Game (Yardage)
Under 46.5 Yards -125
SUPER BOWL XLVII - Team to Score the Longest Touchdown in the Game
49ers -120
SUPER BOWL XLVII - Will there be a Special Teams or Defensive Touchdown scored in the game?
Yes +155
SUPER BOWL XLVII - Longest Successful Field Goal in the Game
Over 44.5 -130
SUPER BOWL XLVII - Team to make the Longest Successful Field Goal in the Game
Ravens -145
SUPER BOWL XLVII - Team to make the Shortest Successful Field Goal in the Game
Ravens -105
SUPER BOWL XLVII - Team to make most successful 3 point Field Goals in the game?
Ravens -105
SUPER BOWL XLVII - Distance of first punt in the Game
Under 48.5 -115
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SUPER BOWL XLVII - Will either team successfully convert a 4th down attempt?
Yes -210
SUPER BOWL XLVII - Will a Roughing the Passer penalty be called in the game?
Yes -105
(BAL @ SF) - Total Interceptions - Joe Flacco (BAL)
Over 1/2 INT -160
(BAL @ SF) - Total Interceptions - Colin Kaepernick (SF)
Over 1/2 -140
(BAL @ SF) - Will Colin Kaepernick (SF) score a Rushing TD in the game?
Yes +115
(BAL @ SF) - Player to score the first Baltimore TD in the game
Field (any player other than listed ones) 5/1 odds
SUPER BOWL XLVII SPECIALS - How long will the post game handshake/hug last between Jim & John Harbaugh?
Under 7 seconds -120
SUPER BOWL XLVII SPECIALS - If Ray Lewis is interviewed on TV after the game on the field or in the locker room how many times will he mention "God/Lord"
Over 3 -120
SUPER BOWL XLVII SPECIALS - What will the TV Rating be for the Super Bowl?
Under 46 -105
SUPER BOWL XLVII SPECIALS - What will be the highest tweet per second during the Super Bowl?
Under 17,000 -105Comment
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Monday's NorthCoast's Props from Private Play Hotline:
Marquee Double - 1st Punt by Baltimore @ Even
Marquee Single - Will be a FG in 1st Q @ -105
Marquee Double - 1st Accepted Penalty will be on S.F. @ -115
Marquee Single - Total FGs in game Over 3.5 @ +125Comment
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Jimmy Boyd Super Bowl
4* Baltimore Ravens +4Comment
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