2-3-13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

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UNDER

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Betting expert consensus says 49ers win plus cover January 29, 2013 3:10 AM by GT Staff

EDITOR’S NOTE: GT invited some of the “experts” to contribute their Super Bowl selections. The vote went 9-5 for San Francisco to cover the 3½ point line. We’ll see late Sunday night who can brag and who can hide.

SAN FRANCISCO -3½

Joe Porrello (Cannery, GT Bookies Battle champion): 49ers, 28-21. A lot of people should be “Kaepernicking” after the game.

Ken Miller (Cantor Gaming): 49ers: 27-21. I’m going to take SF based on the scrambling ability of Kaepernick. The last two teams the Ravens played featured Manning and Brady, who are pocket QB passers and pose zero threat of running the ball. Not so SB Sunday.

Bob Scucci (Orleans): 49ers, 24-17. I felt the NFC was the tougher, more physical conference all year. While the Ravens have certainly shown they can beat anyone I think the 49ers come out on top.

RJ Bell (Pregame.com): 49ers, 27-21: Niners have been a leading “yards per play” team all season. Baltimore was below average away from home most of the season.

Scott Pritchard (champion sports handicapper): 49ers, 27-17. Niners have the better team on both sides of the ball. Ravens have had a great run, but the journey ends. See the cashier.

Tony Nevill (Treasure Island): 49ers: 28-14: I opened the game Niners -6. I noticed the Ravens pass defense, net yards, rushing defense, red zone offense and defense were all regressing. Niners are peaking at the right time.

JT The Brick (FOX national radio host): 49ers, 27-23. Frank Gore gains 125 yards and the Niners defense gets a big pick of Flacco late.

Ken Thomson (SportsXradio): 49ers, 31-24: We have seen two versions of the Kaepernick read option – run and pass. Baltimore has no clue what’s next.

Brady Kannon (past LVH SuperContest winner): 49ers, 27-23. SF is slightly better than the Ravens in every phase of the game. On a neutral field, an opponent of equal strength to the Patriots ought to be a 4.75 point favorite. San Francisco is laying only 3.5.

Mark Mayer (GT sports editor): 49ers, 35-17. Four of the last five SB’s decided by 6 points or less, but never three straight. 30 of 46 won by 10 or more. There are no Kaepernicks, RG3’s or Wilsons in the AFC.

BALTIMORE +3½

Jay Kornegay (LVH): Ravens, 23-20. SF commits one more turnover than Baltimore. Should be a great, close game.

Jay Rood (MGM Resorts Intl): 49ers, 17-16. “The K-factor” pulls out a last minute drive for a TD, mostly with his legs.

Chuck Esposito (Sunset Station): Ravens, 24-23. They were a dropped pass away from playing in the big game last year and have a QB who seems to play his best in the post-season. Relish underdog role.

Ed Malinowski (Stratosphere): Ravens, 27-23: Anyone who can go into New England and beat Brady and Belichick can beat anyone. Joe Flacco won’t turn the ball over to allow SF points to make another dramatic comeback.

Mark Dufty (Jerry’s Nugget): Ravens, 23-20. I think these two teams are mirror images of one another.

Consensus: 10-5 ATS for 49ers.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SUPER PROPS for SUPER BOWL XLVII January 29, 2013 1:32 PM by Mark Mayer

We’re continually amazed at the growing list of Super Bowl propositions started by Jay Kornegay when he ran the Imperial Palace book.

What began as a sidebar to the game’s side and total has in many bettors’ minds become the main event. And rightly so, with so many other creative books developing hundreds of props ranging from a simple coin toss to point comparisons with Kobe Bryant, Phil Mickelson and Lionel Messi.

Here are 10 props we think could work in your favor. The GT recommendations are in bold.

1: WILL EITHER TEAM SCORE 3 STRAIGHT TIMES?

**Excludes extra points and 2 point conversions

***Includes safeties

YES -170

NO +150

2: BERNARD PIERCE (BAL) FIRST RUSHING ATTEMPT

**(If No Rush Attempt-Under is the winner)

OVER 3.5 +110

UNDER 3.5 -130

3: LAMICHAEL JAMES (SF) FIRST RUSHING ATTEMPT

**(If No Rush Attempt-Under is the winner)

OVER 3.5 EVEN

UNDER 3.5 -120

4: TOTAL INTERCEPTIONS BY: BOTH TEAMS

OVER 1.5 +105

UNDER 1.5 -125

5: TOTAL TOUCHDOWNS BY: BOTH TEAMS

OVER 5.5 +110

UNDER 5.5 -130

6: WILL RAY RICE (BAL) SCORE A TOUCHDOWN?

YES +125

NO -145

7: TOTAL RUSHING YARDS BY: COLIN KAEPERNICK (SF)

**(If no Rushing Attempt--Under is the winner)

OVER 48.5 -110

UNDER 48.5 -110

8: TOTAL RUSHING YARDS BY: LAMICHAEL JAMES (SF)

**(If no Rushing Attempt--Under is the winner)

OVER 26.5 -110

UNDER 26.5 -110

9: WHO WILL HAVE MORE:

**(Lakers/Pistons--February 3, 2013) Prop closes at 10:00 am Pacific

KOBE BRYANT (LAL) POINTS -4.0 -110

49ERS POINTS +4.0 -110

10: 49ERS -10.5 +230

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CAPPERS ACCESS

49ers

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Northcoast Super Bowl System

Lost 4 of last 5 and their highest pt total one LOST 2 years ago as well.

This year the system has SAN FRAN

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers
Point Spread - Pick

Baltimore Ravens (13-6 SU, 9-9-1 ATS) vs. San Francisco 49ers (13-4-1 SU, 11-7 ATS)
Super Bowl XLVII (SB 47)
Date/Time: Sunday, February 3rd, 2013, 6:30 p.m. EST
Where: Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, La.
TV: CBS
by Badger, Football Handicapper.

Point Spread: Bal +4/SF -4
Over/Under Total: 48.5

Two storied franchises already famous for winning a Super Bowl title will get another chance to make history in the NFL's showcase game Sunday, February 3rd, when the Baltimore Ravens clash with the San Francisco 49ers in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans for Super Bowl 47.

Not only have both teams already won at least one World title, and in the 49ers case five of them, but this year's Super Bowl will make history when one of these teams loses in a title game. Both the Ravens and San Francisco have never lost in a Super Bowl appearance, with the Ravens just one-for-one (2001) while the Niners are five-for-five (1982, '85, '89, '90, '95) including their, 55-10, drubbing of Denver in Super Bowl 24 (1990) the last time they played for a title in the Superdome.

For the third straight year a team that has come all the way from the wild card round will have another shot at winning a fourth playoff game in the Super Bowl, thanks to the Ravens upset of the New England Patriots in impressive fashion in Sunday's AFC Championship game, 28-13. Ray Lewis and the Baltimore defense is once again playing at a championship level, shutting out Tom Brady and the Patriots in the second half in order to spring the Ravens into their franchise's second appearance in the big game and their first since their, 34-7, win over the New York Giants in Super Bowl 35 in 2001.

San Francisco just kept plugging away at the Atlanta Falcons quick 17-point lead in Sunday's NFC Championship game, and eventually their grind-it-out approach wore away at the Falcons and helped the 49ers score a, 28-24, victory for another NFC title and the franchise's sixth trip to a Super Bowl. The 49ers defense also stepped it up in the second half of Sunday's title-game win, shutting down the Falcons and Matt Ryan's passing attack after halftime to take control of the game and preserve the Niners ticket to another big game.

With Championship Sunday barely hours old, the oddsmakers opened up Super Bowl 47 betting odds with San Francisco as early 4-point favorites.

The over/under total opened at 48.5, but it has already started its move with almost two weeks before kickoff since many online sportsbooks have already dropped the total to 48 with a few even lower to 47.5 to counter the early steam.

With nearly two weeks to scheme, it's often hard to truly handicap the Super Bowl game because literally, no stone will go unturned in regards to offensive and defensive tactics for this game.

We know that the 49ers offense will go into the game as the likely favorite due to the dynamic nature of it's new quarterback, Colin Kaepernick. As Kaepernick showed in the NFC title game, just his mere potential in the read-option running game (just two carries) makes defenses have to defend all 11 players on the 49er offense, a task that burned Green Bay out on the edge but Atlanta right up the gut with Frank Gore in consecutive weeks in the playoffs.

One could argue that the Ravens with their 3-4 defense, a strong run-stuffing presence in the middle with Haloti Ngata, Ma'ake Kemoeatu and Ray Lewis, and hard-tackling safeties Ed Reed and Bernard Pollard, may be one of the best defenses well-equipped to stop the Niners running game.

The Baltimore offense is also peaking at the right time, and don't look now but quarterback Joe Flacco now has six playoff game victories on the road and eight wins overall in his career as the Ravens signal caller. Flacco has been stellar in the playoffs (8 TD, 0 INT, combined 116 QB rating) and may finally start getting some of the respect he should be getting, has led the Ravens resurgence as they are averaging 30 points per game in the playoffs with new play-caller Jim Caldwell pushing all the right buttons.

But Flacco, Caldwell and the Ravens will need the whole 13 days to scheme on how to attack the San Francisco defense, which took a few early blows against both the Packers and Falcons in successive weeks, but has had the finishing power to close games out in the second half all season long (3rd in yards, 2nd in scoring).

One would also be remiss if they didn't mention the connection on the sideline with the Harbaugh brothers, although already it's been over-dubbed the "Super Baugh." John is 50-years-old and coaching in his first Super Bowl after five straight playoff appearances and a near-miss last season in his fifth year as the Ravens head coach, while Jim (49 years-old) is only in his second year in San Francisco, and already has had the 49ers in the championship game in both seasons and their first Super Bowl game since 1995.

There's only a handful of meaningful games between these two teams in recent history, although the Ravens did beat the 49ers in last year's, 16-6, defensive struggle in M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore. Of course that was with Alex Smith at QB, but Baltimore has also won three in a row against the 49ers and are 4-1 SU since the 1993 season.

The neutral setting of the Superdome could help to even things out on the field too, since in the past 20 years of the Ravens-49ers series the home team is a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS. With no true "home" team, maybe the betting trend plays out differently on the carpet in the Superdome.

The under is 4-1 in Baltimore's last five playoff games, and when combined with San Francisco's defense this season, its no wonder most of the early steam has been on the under. But the 49ers have been dynamic on offense with Kaepernick, and their increased scoring alone has made the over go 6-0 in the 49ers last six games overall.

Badger's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting the San Francisco 49ers minus the points.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

POINTWISE

SUPER BOWL XLVII

SAN FRANCISCO (NT) (13-4-1)
BALTIMORE (AT) (13-6)

SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 3, 2013

SUPERDOME - NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA - ARTIFICIAL TURF
6:25 PM EST - CBS TELEVISION
CURRENT LINE: SAN FRANCISCO BY 3½ - OVER/UNDER LINE: 47½

SUPER BOWL FACTS (In No Particular Order of Importance)
In the first 33 Super Bowls, the spread had come into play only 5 times, but the last 13
have seen 4 such instances: Tennessee (+7) losing 23-16 in Super Bowl XXXIV;
Carolina (+7) losing 32-29 in Super Bowl XXXVII, Philadelphia (+7) losing 24-
21 in Super Bowl XXXIX, & Arizona (+7) losing 27-23 in Super Bowl XLIII. The
underdog has gone 10-5-2 ATS in the last 17 Super Bowls. The Ravens &
Niners have played just 2 common opponents, a total of 5 games. Baltimore
has gone 3-0 SU, and 2-1 ATS, while SanFrancisco has gone 1-1, both SU and
ATS. In those games, the Ravens held edges of 11.7 ppg SU, & 14.3 ppg
ATS, while the Niners had deficits of 8.0 ppg SU, & 9.0 ppg ATS. The
Ravens have held 9 foes below 17 pts, & the Niners have held 8 foes below 17
pts, & 5 foes to a TD or less. Offensively, Baltimore ranks 16th in total "O",
& 10th in scoring, while SanFran ranks 11th in total "O", & 11th in scoring.

Defensively, the Niners rank 3rd in total "D", & 2nd in pts allowed, while the
Ravens rank 17th in total "D", & 12th in pts allowed. Baltimore ranks in the
Top 10 in 6 offensive categories, & in the Top 5 in just one, while SanFran
ranks in the top 10 in 9 offensive categories, & in the Top 5 in six. The
Ravens rank in the Top 10 in 4 defensive columns, & in the Top 5 in none, while
the Niners rank in the Top 10 in 12 defensive columns, & in the Top 4 in eleven.
Ravens selected to Pro Bowl: RB Rice, FB Leach, OG Yanda, DT Ngata,
DB Reed, & KR Jones. Niners selected to Pro Bowl: RB Gore, OT Staley, OG
Iupati, DT Smith, LB Smith, LB Bowman, LB Willis, DB Whitner, DB Goldson.

This is just the 10th start for Kaepernick, 3rd fewest by a starting Super
Bowl QB (Giants' Hostetler in '90, & Rams' Ferragamo in '79). The Niners'
win over the Falcons marked their first playoff road win since 1988. The Ravens
are 13-7 all-time in the playoffs, with their .650 pct the best in NFL history.

SanFran's overcoming of a 17-pt deficit was the 3rd largest in playoff history,
the 2nd largest in a title game (18, by the Colts over the Pats in '06), & the
largest in an NFL title game (trailed 24-7 with 8:09 left in 2nd). Flacco is the
only QB to win a playoff game in each of his first 5 seasons, & his 6 road
wins are the most in playoff history. Brady was an astounding 67-0 SU at
home when leading at the half, before losing to the Ravens (led 13-7). This
marks the 1st time since '97 that both road teams won their division Title
Games, & just the 3rd time since the 1970 merger of the NFL & AFL. The
Ravens (21-0) & Niners (14-0), combined for a 35-0 2nd half scoring edge in
their title games. Flacco has thrown 8 TDs & no INTs in his 93 playoff
aerials this year. This marks the 9th straight year that the team with the best
record in the NFL hasn't won the Super Bowl. Niners are the 11th different
NFC team the reach the Super Bowl in the last 12 years. SanFran's longest
winning streak all season was just 2 games, before its current 3-game run.

Baltimore's 9 playoff road wins ties Dallas for the 2nd most, 1 less than
GreenBay. Kaepernick is 7-2 as a starter, & his 181 RYs (11.3 ypr) vs the
Packers, set an all-time rushing record for a QB in any game in the NFL's 93-yd
history. He had just 2 carries for 21 yds vs the Falcons (10.5 ypr). Baltimore
is only the 2nd team to beat both Peyton Manning & Tom Brady in the
same post-season ('10 Jets). The Ravens' 4 TDs vs the Pats came on drives
of 90, 87, 63, & 47 yds, while the Niners' 4 TDs vs the Falcons came on drives
of 80, 82, 82, & 38 yds. These 2 have never lost a SuperBowl, with this the
first for the Niners (5-0) since '94, & for the Ravens (1-0) since '00. Lewis
was MVP of SuperBowl XXXV. Baltimore's "D" is definitely better than its
stats, as it recovers from the injury bug, most notably Lewis' torn tri.

Flacco's 8-2 record in his first 5 years puts him just 1 behind Brady's 9-0, & ties
him with Roethlisberger, also 8-2. John Harbaugh is 8-4 in playoffs, while
Jim is 3-1. These 2 met on Thanksgiving Day in '11, with the Ravens prevailing
16-6, in a defensive struggle. The Niners had a 182-(-2) yd deficit in the first
quarter at Atlanta. SanFran TE Davis caught only 7 passes in his previous 7
games, before 5 vs the Falcons (106 yds & a TD). Niners' James scored his
1st career TD in that win (3rd straight NFC title game that has happened).

Did anyone mention that this pits 2 brothers as opposing head coaches? Thus,
the "Harbaugh Bowl" moniker. The 2 have made major adjustments, with the
Niners replacing Smith with the sensational Kaepernick in game #10, while the
Ravens changed offensive coordinators in game #14 (Caldwell for Cameron), &
both moves have certainly panned out. A year ago, these 2 squads suffered
bitter defeats in their title games (missed chip shot FG for Ravens, & fumbled
punt for Niners). Thus, no questioning their pedigree. Lewis' swan song may
have the earmarks of destiny, with his surrounding cast (Flacco, Rice, Boldin,
Reed, etc) certainly capable. But the Niners definitely have proven themselves,
especially with those 45 pts, 323 RYs, & 579 TYs vs the Packers. No question
that Kaepernick is the key, as defending the "Pistol" has proven unsolvable thus
far. That Raven "D" is loaded with quality, & wily veterans, but may just be a
step too slow to contain this Niner. This could be a classic. We'll lay the spot.

PROPHECY: SAN FRANCISCO 31 - Baltimore 23 RATING: 4

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WINNING POINTS

SUPER BOWL XLVII

Baltimore over San Francisco by 3 (at New Orleans, LA)
We absolutely guarantee the winner of Super Bowl XLVII at the Superdome in
New Orleans will be a Harbaugh-coached team.We just have to figure out if it
is John Harbaugh’s Ravens, or his younger brother Jim’s 49ers. Favorites have
covered in seven of the 10 playoff games, yet we’re going to side with
Baltimore. John Harbaugh has brought the Ravens to the AFC championship
game in three of his five seasons. Now he’s reached the Super Bowl. The
Ravens hosted the 49ers on Thanksgiving night last season and won, 16-6.

Now this may not even be Harbaugh’s best Ravens team due to defensive
injuries, but the veteran-led Ravens have tremendous momentum,are resilient
and Joe Flacco is playing the best he’s ever played away from M&T Bank
Stadium.There’s also the Ray Lewis retirement motivation factor. It shouldn’t
be discounted.The Ravens are 5-5 without their future Hall of Fame linebacker
and 8-1 with him.The 37-year-old Lewis not only still has it in this his 17th and
final season, but he remains a huge inspiration to his teammates.This isn’t an
anti-49ers play. Obviously by the final margin we’re expecting a close game.

We just feel this is Baltimore’s time. Colin Kaepernick has elevated the 49ers’
offense to be on a par with their upper tier defense.Kaepernick’s quarterback
rating is well above 100 since he became the starter leading San Francisco to
eight victories in its last 10 games. Kaepernick has been brilliant in his playoff
wins against Green Bay and Atlanta throwing for a combined 496 yards, rushing
for another 202 yards and accounting for five touchdowns. Kaepernick
brings a mobility factor the Ravens have yet to encounter.Yet during their past
two games the Ravens knocked off Peyton Manning and Tom Brady – two of
the all-time greatest quarterbacks – in successive weeks on the road. That
achievement can’t be downplayed and it proves Baltimore is way past its late
season blues when it dropped four of its last five regular season games.In beating
New England in the AFC championship game,the Ravens held the Patriots
to fewer than 14 points.That hadn’t happened to New England since Week 2.
The Ravens’ veteran and proud defense has two weeks to study Kaepernick.

The Falcons kept Kaepernick much more in check than Green Bay learning
from the Packers’ mistake of not keeping Kaepernick in the pocket. Flacco
outplayed Brady in last year’s AFC title game in Foxboro. He outplayed
Manning in the cold at Denver and he outplayed Brady again in Foxboro during
this year’s title game. Flacco has a 15-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio
during his last six postseason games. Flacco has won more than half of his
playoff road games. His six playoff road victories are more than Joe Montana,
Terry Bradshaw, Steve Young,Troy Aikman, Favre, Brady and Manning.Those
seven legendary quarterbacks were a combined 13-29 in road playoff contests.

Kaepernick has elevated the play of Michael Crabtree turning him into a legitimate
No. 1 wide receiver. Frank Gore remains highly effective. LaMichael
James is a dangerous scatback and Vernon Davis always has to be watched.San
Francisco’s offensive line is one of the best, if not the best in the league.The
49ers’ offense, however, has shined much more at home. San Francisco has
failed to break the 383-yard barrier in nine road matchups. Baltimore’s offense
has come together at the right time. No team has had more downfield passing
success during the postseason than the Ravens. Flacco has averaged 284 yards
passing in three playoff games this year. He’s thrown eight touchdown passes
without an interception. His quarterback rating for the postseason is 125.6,
116.2 and 106.3. By comparison,Aaron Rodgers led the NFL with a 108 quarterback
rating. Baltimore’s offensive line has stepped up during the postseason.

Flacco has thrown touchdown passes of 40 yards of longer to six different
receivers this year.Ray Rice is one of the five best all-purpose backs in the
league. Kicker Justin Tucker made 14 of 17 field goal attempts from 40 yards
or more, including nailing a game-winning 47-yard field goal in tough weather
conditions at Denver.Contrast this with San Francisco kicker David Akers,who
may be the least effective starting kicker in the league missing 13 of 42 field
goal attempts, including a 38-yarder in Atlanta’s dome stadium during the NFC
title game.Akers is 9-for-19 in field goal tries from 40 plus yards. Baltimore has
another special teams edge with Pro Bowl returner Jacoby Jones. He led the
league in kick return average at 30.7 yards and was 15th in punt return average
at 9.2 while tying for the league lead with three total return touchdowns.

It was a botched punt return that cost the 49ers a trip to the Super Bowl last
season. San Francisco’s defense allowed just 4.7 yards per play during the regular
season, which was the best mark in the NFC.The 49ers surrendered the
second-fewest points in the league. Star defensive lineman Justin Smith has
shown he can hold up despite playing with a bulky arm brace to protect a torn
bicep.The 49ers can be beat on the ground, though, especially now with topnotch
run-stuffer Smith at less than 100 percent.They yielded an average of
143 yards rushing during the five games they did not win.Rice provides Flacco
with a solid running option and is perhaps the best checkdown receiving back
in the league.The Ravens averaged 13 more runs and 74.2 more yards on the
ground in their first three games after replacing stodgy offensive coordinator
Cam Cameron with Jim Caldwell in Week 15. San Francisco is a solid, wellcoached
team. But the Ravens are on a roll.They’ve beaten the two best AFC
teams as underdogs of more than a touchdown. The Patriots would have
opened the favorite against the 49ers if they would have reached the Super
Bowl.Taking the points with the Ravens is the way to go. BALTIMORE 27-24
.OVER/UNDER: Just 22 points were scored when Jim and John Harbaugh
matched wits for the first time last season in Baltimore on Thanksgiving night.

It was the first time in NFL history that two brothers opposed each other as
head coaches. Count on many more points being scored in Round 2 of the
Harbaugh Civil War.We’re calling it for Baltimore, 27-24. The Ravens sacked
Alex Smith nine times in a 16-6 win during that Thanksgiving victory. The
49ers have replaced Smith, a game-manager with a limited arm, with electrifying
Colin Kaepernick. The change has made the 49ers go from a team that
used to rely on its defense and field position to a quick-strike offense capable
of moving the ball on the ground and through the air with a downfield, attack
mentality. Kaepernick ranks with Robert Griffin III and Cam Newton as the
most dangerous running quarterback.The 49ers have gone over in their last
six games.The Ravens went over in six of its nine games versus playoff opponents
with one of their under games occurring against the Bengals in Week 17
during a meaningless matchup when offensive reserves played much of the
time. San Francisco has a very strong defense, but it hasn’t been dominant
down the stretch.If you throw out the 49ers’game against the offensively-challenged
Cardinals and their fourth-string quarterback Brian Hoyer, San
Francisco has given up an average of 32.7 points in its last four games. Joe
Flacco can take advantage riding a hot streak of eight touchdown throws in
Baltimore’s three playoff victories. Anquan Boldin has stepped up nicely for
Flacco with 16 catches, 276 yards and three touchdowns during the playoffs.

Both Kaepernick and Flacco are going to be helped playing on a fast track
inside the temperature-controlled Superdome in New Orleans.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

PLAYBOOK MARC LAWRENCE

(13-6) BALTIMORE RAVENS VS. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (13-4-1)

Baltimore over San Francisco by 1
Get ready for the Bro Bowl. Unlike Romulus and Remus, Jim
and John Harbaugh will not be fighting to a terrible death.

Instead, they are the first pair of brothers to coach against
each other in a Super Bowl. And as such, SB XLVII will be filled with
plenty of firsts… and lasts.

The Harbaughs
The Harbaugh brothers became the only siblings to coach against
one another in any NFL game on Thanksgiving Day, 2011, when the
Ravens beat the 49ers, 16-6.

A lot has happened since then. Baltimore has gone 18-8 SU, with half
of the losses by 3 or fewer points. Meanwhile, in 25 games since the
inaugural Harbaugh battle, San Francisco has gone 18-6-1, with all
but one win by more than 3 points. Good luck fi guring out how that
fi ts into this handicap!

What does figure, though, is that BOTH Harbaughs bring plenty to the
table in this contest. Under Jim Harbaugh, San Francisco is: 25-1-1
SU in games in which the 49ers rush the ball 25 or more times; 7-1
SUATS versus AFC opposition (only loss to brother John’s Ravens);
and 19-5 SU and 18-4-2 ATS in games played outside the NFC West.

With John Harbaugh, Baltimore is: 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS with rest; 30-
12 SU versus an opponent Harbaugh defeated in the last meeting;
and 13-7 SU and 12-8 ATS against NFC opposition.

Over, Brother
In addition, they each bring smiles to ‘Over’ players’ faces with Frisco
Jim standing 10-1 SU and 8-2-1 ‘Over’ in games where the total is set
at more than 43 points, while Baltimore John is 5-1-1 ‘Over’ in games
where the total is identically set at more than 43 points.

Behind Center
To no one’s surprise, both quarterbacks bring the postseason’s best
QB Ratings into the fray with Baltimore’s Joe Flacco topping the list
at 114.7, with 8 TD’s and 0 INT’s, while San Fran’s Colin Kaepernick is
right on his heels at 105.9, with 3 TD’s and 1 INT.

Flacco’s regular season QB Rating was 87.7. Kaepernick’s was 98.3.
Flacco is 62-30 SU and 50-38-4 ATS in his NFL career, while going
44-45-3 ‘Under.’ In games against the NFC – and given the fact
he’s started every game since he and John Harbaugh came aboard
together in 2008 – Flacco’s numbers mirror Harbaugh’s in games
against NFC opponents (13-7 SU and 12-8 ATS and 12-6-2 ‘Over’).
During the postseason, Super Joe is 8-4 SU and ATS and 4-8 ‘Under.’

Kaepernick shined after taking over as the Niners’ starter in mid-
November, going 7-2 SU and 5-3-1 ATS and 8-1 ‘Over.’ The lead pistol
is 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS in non-division games.

Head-To-Head
Breaking down each team’s schedule, in games versus fellow playoff
teams this season, Baltimore went 4-3 SU and ATS and 3-4 ITS (In
The Stats), losing the stats by an average 20 YPG. Meanwhile, San
Francisco was 5-2 SU and 3-3-1 ATS and 3-4 ITS, breaking even in YPG.

In games against common opponents this season (Giants and
Patriots), Baltimore was 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS, winning the stats by an
average 127 YPG. On the fl ip side, San Francisco struggled against the
common tandem, going 1-1 SU and ATS despite being outyarded in
both games by an average 86 YPG.

Statistically Speaking
Baltimore’s 364 YPG offense is the 11th best in the league while its
361 YPG defense ranks No. 21.

San Francisco owns a Top 10 ranked offense and defense, averaging
375 YPG on offense and 308 YPG on defense.

From Game Nine out, or the 2nd half of the season, the Ravens’ net
yardage (offense gained and defense allowed) improved 31 YPG.
Surprisingly, the Niners’ net yardage slipped 29 YPG over the same
span.

Defense Rules… Most Of The Time
It’s no surprise that 39 of the 46 Super Bowl winners have owned
Top 10 ranked defenses.

What is surprising, though, is that while clubs with the better defense
have gone 22-10 SU and 17-13-2 ATS in the big game since 1981,
these teams are only 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS the last six years.

Super Bowl History
• Baltimore’s top guns – the alias Smith and Flacco – have been
a chief contributor to this franchise’s all-time best 13-7 postseason
record in NFL history. The Ravens are 1-0 SU and ATS in their only
Super Bowl appearance.

• San Francisco has yet to lose a Super Bowl, going 5-0 SU and 4-1
ATS all-time.

• The NFC has controlled the last 31 Super Bowls, going 21-10 SU and
20-9-3 ATS, including 4-0 SU and ATS the last four years. However,
the AFC actually holds the upper hand of late, going 9-6 SU the last
15 years.

• 15 of the last 18 quarterbacks have owned a QB Rating of 92.6 or
better.

• Teams who lost SU as a playoff favorite last year (Niners) are 4-9 SU
and ATS, including 0-5 ATS as favorites.

• Teams off a SU underdog win (Ravens) are 13-6-1 ATS, including
7-1-1 ATS off back-to-back SU underdog wins.

• Favorites who allow 3.9 or more Yards Per Rush (Niners) are 3-6
SU and 2-7 ATS.

• Teams with a better win percentage (Niners) are on a 3-6 SU and
0-9 ATS slide.

• The last seven NFC representatives have faced the AFC East in their
designated non-conference games.

• 12 of 18 Super Bowl games on artifi cial turf have played ‘Under’
the total.

At Last
And then there’s Ray Lewis, Baltimore’s mercurial LB and MVP from
SB XXXV in 2001 when the Ravens beat the New York Giants, 34-7.

This game marks Lewis’ last game as a player in his NFL career, thus
guaranteeing, at the very least, an emotional effort from the Black
Birds.

The Bottom Line
Both teams bring strong numbers to the table, especially since
making vital positional changes to each offense (Colin Kaepernick
replacing Alex Smith at quarterback for the 49ers and new OC Jim
Caldwell replacing Cam Cameron for the Ravens). But it’s hard to
turn an eye against a team that has downed sure-fi re Hall of Famers
Peyton Manning and Tom Brady on their home fi elds in each of its
last two games.

So from the ‘Bro Bowl’ to Lewis’ last game, don’t expect SB XLVII
to end tragically like the tale of Romulus and Remus. Instead, in
the end, look for John to be crowned king of the Harbaughs.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

John Harrison / Vegas Killers

UNDER 48 - Baltimore/ San Francisco

Baltimore ML+155

Baltimore Ravens+4

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Super Bowl XLVII Action Report: Some Books Move to 3-Point Spread

Super Bowl XLVII is just one week away. While action has been hot and heavy at sportsbooks online and in Nevada, the bulk of the bets will come over the next seven days.

We talk with Jay Kornegay, sportsbook director at the LVH Superbook in Las Vegas, Aron Black of Bet365, and oddsmakers at online book BetDSI about the Super Bowl odds as the week-long countdown begins in New Orleans.

Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers (-3.5, 47.5)

Most sportsbooks are dealing the favored 49ers at -3.5. However, some markets have stayed high with San Francisco -4 while others have gone as low as -3. But if you’re going to grab the Niners at a field-goal spread expect to pay a hefty price. Juice is as high as -125 on the short spread.

One of the books dealing a field-goal spread is Bet365, which moved to -3 after taking one-sided money on Baltimore since opening.

"Yeah, the dreaded break to the key number. Not a decision taken easily," Black told Covers. "Since the move we have taken some more San Francisco money. I think many were waiting for the better price on the flat three. We may have to go back to 3.5. But for now, we have made the move and we shall see whether it was right or not."

The LVH Superbook is currently dealing San Francisco at -3.5 and has begun to take some big bets on the Niners after a week of one-sided Baltimore action. According to Kornegay the bet count is balancing out and he doesn’t expect their spread to shrink before kickoff on Feb. 3.

“I doubt it,” Kornegay told Covers about a move to -3. “We’re expecting more San Francisco money this week, especially in the last 48 hours. If it goes anywhere, it’ll go back up to -4.”

As for moneyline wagering, a flood of bets on the Ravens to win straight up has pushed the price on San Francisco from -205 to as low as -159 in some markets. BetDSI is currently dealing the 49ers as -175 moneyline favorites, which is drawing the attention of wiseguys.

“The majority of action that has been wagered has come from the public at this time,” BetDSI told Covers. “The only sharp action that has been put in play has been on the San Francisco moneyline.”

According to BetDSI, the money wagered and the bet count is still leaning toward the underdog Ravens but the allure of the favorite will draw in the recreational bettors closer the game day.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Super Bowl XLVII Prop Bets

Baltimore Ravens (13-6 SU, 9-9-1 ATS) vs San Francisco 49'ers (13-4-1 SU, 11-7 ATS)
Super Bowl XLVII (47)
Date and Time: Sunday February 3rd, 2013 6:30 p.m. EST
Where: Mercedes-Benz Superdome
TV: CBS
By TimmieB, Football Handicapper.

Point Spread: Balt +4/SF -4
Over/Under Total: 48.5

So you've heard that 'Prop Bets' (Proposition Bets) are a sucker's bet! "It's a waste of money", "No one ever wins Prop Bets", we've all heard the same junk about Prop Bets. But look at it this way: Giants-Pats last year, Super Bowl 46, "Any Team scores a safety anytime" bet went out at +2500 odds and someone got paid on a two-dollar chance. Same Super Bowl: "First Score is a Safety" carrying +10000 odds and another 'Sucker' got paid. And one more time: "Giants score very first score of game for safety" went out at around +18000 and another 'Sucker' is dancing to the bank! Do you think that's a fluke? How about the Ravens walking into Denver and tying Peyton Manning's Broncos with a last minute, Flacco- Heave-Ho on a 3rd and 3 from the Ravens 30 yard-line with 31 seconds left and ZERO timeouts! After that, the Ravens kick a field goal in double OT to win! If you played an OT win Prop Bet you definitely made some cash.

Don't be fooled; there can be some great values found in Prop Bets and you're not a Sucker for playing them. And with most online sportsbooks, you can even suggest your particular 'niche' Prop Bet in an email such as "Total number of tackles for Ray Lewis" or "Over/Under Total field goal tries by 49ers in the first half" and the Sports Book will be open to give odds-if they think it'll make money. Most people play the Spread or the Over/Under because they're used to it and: "Everyone else does it!" Maybe, this year, instead of gripping your chair and hoping your team can hold on and cover, you might be able to relax knowing that Randy Moss already caught a touchdown pass in the first half and you'll make money. Let's look at some of the better Prop Bets being offered for this Super Bowl (47).

For bettors looking at the Ravens to Win and the total being Under, a +700 two-dollar bet on Ray Lewis to be the game's MVP is pretty tempting (net $140)! Let's face it: Love him or hate him, this is Ray's last game. If he is anywhere near the top in tackles, just on his team, and forces a turnover or makes just one, single outstanding play, those voting for the MVP (20% fan vote, 80% Broadcasters and Writers) will give him the Award. Traditionally, the winning team has gotten the Super Bowl MVP every year except one. If you're a San Fran bettor and playing the OVER, Kaepernick is +135 for the award and the Favorite. But look at it this way: If you take San Fran SU you're right at -175 and the Over is -115! If you think Kaepernick is the key then, after all the publicity he's gotten recently, Kaepernick at +135 gives you much better odds to make some loot. If Ed Reed's as good as Bill Belichick thinks (called Reed the best safety ever in the NFL!) and Jim Harbough doesn't get off the gas with his passing attack after 2 or 3 picks, then a two or three interception Game (Reed's specialty) probably will get him the MVP at +6600! If it's 'Ground and Pound'…Gore is sitting at +650 and Ray Rice is at +900. And, in the event a Fluke happens (Kaepernick gets hurt), Alex Smith is hanging around at +10000 for game MVP. Those are some fantastic odds using a common sense approach.

If you think San Fran will dominate then don't play the Spread. Take a "Double Chance" bet at +135 for San Francisco to lead at halftime and lead at the end of the game; you'll make more money that way than playing the spread line. If you think the game might go into OT then a +800 is on your side. A 'Ground and Pound' game usually gets rushing touchdowns so you might consider a "First Scorer" bet (Player to score first touchdown) with Gore at +600, Rice at +700, Crabtree at +750, Boldin at +900 and the Baltimore Ravens defense at +2500. But let's say Frank Gore breaks out on a 45 plus yard run down to the Ravens 3 yard line. Gore is spent, comes out, LaMichael James comes in "BadaBoom": touchdown James off right tackle----+2200 for first touchdown scorer!

Thinking how each coach will coach and the Players involved and you might find a very good coach and gambler, Jim Harbough, throwing an open drive 'GO Route' to Randy Moss and there it is: Moss +1600. Tons of value can be cashed-in on during the Super Bowl. Think about the teams, the coaches their strategies then consider your wife's patience, your patience and make a play accordingly. If you know San Fran will dominate then play the Prop Bet "Double Chance" and make 60% more money than simply playing the Spread. It's all about cashing Benjamins and only 'Suckers' won't look at the possibilities that Prop Bets offer. I also have this sneaking suspicion that the bad rap that Prop Bets get is from Bookies and Sports Books that hope you won't look at the numbers and trends to gain an Edge over them. Have a great Super Bowl! As for me, TimmyB, I'm going with Vernon Davis and Dennis Pitta as 'First Touchdown Scorers' at +900 for both… and Ray Lewis for MVP. Good Luck!

TimmieB's Prop Bet Pick: Ray Lewis Game MVP and Vernon Davis/Dennis Pitta 1st Touchdown Scorers.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WUNDERDOG SPORTS

Game: Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers (Sunday 2/03 6:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on First Quarter UNDER 10 -135 (risk 3 to win 3.7)
Prop Bet
During the 2012-13 regular season, an average of 9.4 points per game where scored in the first quarter. In this game we have two good offenses and two good defenses. Baltimore games averaged 10.0 first quarter points while San Francisco games averaged just 7.9 per game. Average the two and we get 9.0 points which is over a full point and a half lower than this posted total. In the history of the Super Bowl, the first quarter has proved to be a low scoring one as an average of 8.3 points per game has been scored. And, it's been getting lower-scoring! Twelve of the last fourteen Super Bowls have seen 10 or fewer points scored in the first quarter. One of the years this bet went OVER was in 2011 but that came only thanks to a very rare pick-6 touchdown. Last year was one of the UNDERs as 9 points were scored. The last five years have seen an average of 7.8 points scored in the first quarter (3, 3, 10, 14, 9). The quarterbacks in those games: Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Kurt Warner, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger. As the magnitude of this game seems grows each year, the stakes only get bigger. That results in an inevitable "feeling out" process early in the game. Each team has prepared meticulously but they still need some time to figure out what they can accomplish versus their opponent. Above all, they are trying to avoid big mistakes early. So the play calling, and the play on the field, tend to be conservative in the early going. Even in Super Bowl games that were expected to be very high-scoring, the 1st quarter has gone UNDER the total much more than not. Five years ago the total between the Giants and Patriots was 53.5. In that game, 3 points were scored in the first-quarter. Three years ago, the total in the Saints-Colts game was set at 56.5. The 1st quarter total went under the 10.5 line. Last year the total was 53.5 and the first-quarter went UNDER. With twelve of the last fourteen Super Bowls producing 10 or fewerpoints in the first quarter, the UNDER is the play here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Where the Action is: Sharp Money Shrinks Super Bowl Total

The spread for Super Bowl XLVII has grabbed plenty of attention the last few days, sinking to as low as San Francisco -3. Now, the total for Sunday’s Big Game is on the move and has dipped to 47 points at some online sportsbooks after opening as high as 49.

We talk to Aron Black of online book Bet365 and veteran oddsmaker Jimmy Vaccaro of William Hill Sportsbooks in Nevada about the adjustments to the Super Bowl total.

Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers – Open: 49, Move: 48, Move: 47

The total for Super Bowl XLVII has been slowly declining since opening but the action has picked up in the past three days, moving the number from 47.5 to 47 at some markets.

The action on the under is going hand-in-hand with the early money on the Ravens, with bettors believing Baltimore’s best chance is to turn this into a defensive grinder, much like its 28-13 victory over the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship.

"The move is more based on what sharps are betting, as many see this as more of a defensive battle, regardless of who wins,” Black told Covers. “So when you look at the total from the perspective of how many touchdowns will be needed to go over, you have to say six at least, which is a big number when you consider the defense on both sides.”

In Nevada, most sportsbooks are sticking to 47.5 points knowing that the popular play among the tourists – expected to start showing up Friday – will be the over. According to Vaccaro, there is a lean toward the under in terms of money and wager count but that won’t last long.

“We are holding (at 47.5) because of the recreational bettors’ tendency to side with the favorite and the over. It’s not a bad idea to take all the under you can,” Vaccaro told Covers. “We are a little top heavy (on the under) but that difference will be gobbled up in a matter of a few hours come Sunday.”

Online books are expecting similar betting patterns from Super Bowl bettors. Black sees the total climbing back to 47.5 or beyond as Sunday’s 6:30 p.m. ET kickoff draws closer. He notes that the Ravens and 49ers are averaging a combined score of more than 66 points in the postseason.

“Take a touchdown off both and it’s still over 47,” he says. “I can see more people looking at the over. And when you look at how the parlay tickets, buy/sells, teaser/parlay cards will get played, I think a lot of places will move back to at least 47.5.”

Baltimore currently owns a 10-9 over/under count this season, going 1-2 over/under in the playoffs. San Francisco is 11-6-1 over/under, including a 2-0 over/under postseason mark.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

From This Week's BEST BETS
STATFOX SCOTT
BALTIMORE (101) Vs. SAN FRANCISCO (102)
Latest Line: 49ers -4; Total: 47.5
Because the Ravens gave up 35 points to Denver in the Divisional round, the team's post-season defensive performance doesn't look as impressive on the surface as it does upon digging a bit deeper. Not only did the Broncos score in that game on both 90-yard punt and 104-yard kickoff returns, but the game lasted five-plus quarters. So despite the fact that Baltimore had to go on the road in back-to-back weeks to play the only two NFL teams to average more than 30 points per game in 2012, the Ravens gave up a total of just 34 points on defense (21 to Denver, 13 to New England) in more than nine quarters. San Fran's regular-season output away from home with Colin Kaepernick was as follows: 31 points in a dome vs. the Saints, who had the worst defense in NFL history, but 14 of the 31 came on pick-sixes; 13 in a dome in an overtime game at St. Louis; 41 against Patriots, which was impressive, but it was aided by long returns, a bad New England defense and the fact that the Patriots turned the ball over four times; and 13 at Seattle.
PLAY ON: UNDER 47.5