2-3-13

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Indian Cowboy

7-Unit Play. #102. Take San Francisco -3.5 over Baltimore Ravens (Sunday @ 6:30pm est).

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Kelso

300 Units Ravens

50 Units Ravens / 49ers Under

50 Unit Parlay Ravens & Under

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The Goldsheet

SUPER BOWL XLVII
There is often a knee-jerk reaction among handicappers to be swayed by the
pointspread in championship-level games. That’s because underdog teams in
such matchups are usually of high quality; we’re not talking about regular-reason
also-rans like the Browns and Jaguars getting points from the oddsmakers. No,
title-game participants are always formidable, and there is always something
intoxicating about getting additional points with a team good enough to play for all
of the marbles.

Perhaps that dynamic has something to do with why we’ve been inclined to
back the title-game underdogs as well, especially in recent Super Bowls when we
often thought the team that was going to win the game was also the one getting
the points from the oddsmakers. We were all in with the underdog Giants, both
last season and five years ago, because we thought they had a real shot on each
occasion to beat the Patriots. Never mind the pointspread. Just as we liked the
underdog Saints to beat the Colts three years ago. Similarly, we backed underdogs
such as the Cardinals against the Steelers in Tampa and Steelers against the
Packers at Arlington in other recent Super Bowls, each time because we really
thought the “short” was going to win. Besides, playing the dogs in recent Super
Bowls has also been pretty good business, as they have covered 8 of the last 11.
But, as in the recent BCS title game between Alabama and Notre Dame, when
we backed the favored Crimson Tide, our gut instinct tells us the price is quite fair
in Super Bowl XLVII. And we are going to resist that natural temptation to back
the quality underdog (in this case Baltimore), mostly because we at TGS are in
unanimous agreement that San Francisco will win this game.

We’re not going to waste much space by expounding upon the Ravens’ flaws.
Which have been a lot harder to identify in the postseason, one in which QB Joe
Flacco has been almost error-free (with no picks) and the defense, finally healthy
and with emotional leader Ray Lewis back in the fold after an extended absence,
has begun to resemble its former dominant self. We also tip our hat to HC John
Harbaugh for rallying the troops in mid-December when the season seemed to be
unraveling after a three-game losing streak and unorthodox dismissal of o.c. Cam
Cameron following a December 9 OT defeat at Washington. Sources say
Cameron was grinding with Flacco and creating an unwanted tension that
Harbaugh suspected was undermining the entire operation. That bold move by
the Baltimore version of Harbaugh has been rewarded.

But in the bold move category, we suspect the one made by John’s
brother Jim in San Francisco when benching QB Alex Smith in mid-
November in favor of 2nd-year Colin Kaepernick will end up being more
impactful on Sunday. Kaepernick has not only been near flawless in his nine
subsequent starts, but he has added a unique dimension to the 49er attack with
not only his ability to run, but also his laser-like arm that has put WR Michael
Crabtree into play as a dangerous downfield threat. Kaepernick has also been
mostly unflappable, shaking off an early pick-6 in the Division Round vs. Green
Bay to subsequently dominate the Pack, and then demonstrate further resilience
when displaying uncommon cool in the NFC title game in leading the 49ers back
from a 0-17 deficit at the noisy Georgia Dome vs. Atlanta. In addition, Kaepernick
flashed plenty of moxie in a late-season game at New England when answering
a late Tom Brady rally by confidently leading a late TD drive to put the 49ers back
in control. Not your normal NFL QB with only 9 starts.

Moreover, Kaepernick has been at his best vs. the best, tossing 4 TD passes
in that win over the Patriots, leading a 579-yard assault (inclduing his own 181
YR) vs. Green Bay, and finding a different way to beat Atlanta in the NFC title
game when the Falcons committed resources to controlling Kaepernick’s dashes
on the flanks. His presence also provides a much different look to the 49ers than
the Alex Smith “O” that could not stretch the field and lost at Baltimore by a 16-
6 count in a Thanksgiving 2011 game. Most of the dynamics from that matchup
fourteen months ago no longer exist, mainly because of Kaepernick.
While formidable, Baltimore’s “D” has also been facing the equivalent of traffic
cones at QB (Peyton Manning and Brady) in its last two palyofff games, and in fact
had to deal with only one truly mobile signal-caller all season (the Redskins’ RG
III, who improvised with some success in an early December Washington win
before being KO’d in the 2nd half). Containing Kaepernick presents a daunting
challenge; indeed, as the Falcons discovered, it’s pick your poison against the
new-look 49er offense. Though rugged, does the Raven stop unit possess the
foot speed to deal with Kaepernick?

Credit Flacco and the Raven strike force for answering the challenge in the
postseason. But just a little bit of smarts by the Denver DBs (that’s mainly you,
Rahim Moore) would have prevented Baltimore, operating without any timeouts,
from that miracle 70-yard TD pass to tie the Division Round game in the last 30
seconds and instead sent the Ravens home on January 12. We suspect Flacco,
no Fred Astaire he in the pocket, will be facing plenty of pressure from the
aggressive 49er front seven. San Francisco’s 2ndary can play tight coverage and
attack Flacco’s receiving targets because Aldon Smith and NaVorro Bowman are
going to pressure Flacco, who could in turn be forcing his throws. And the 49er
“D” (allowing only 3.7 ypc) will limit the damage Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce can
inflict on the ground.

In conclusion, of the many riveting storylines in this matchup, we expect the
most compelling of all will be the emergence of Kaepernick, whose unique
dimension is something Baltimore is not likely to be able to match.

SCORE FORECAST:
SAN FRANCISCO 33 - Baltimore 20

SUPER BOWL “TOTALS” PICK
The perfect conditions indoors and the artificial turf at the Superdome
make one think first about the “over” despite the solid defenses of these two
teams. And our preceding writeups on the teams emphasize how both of the
talented starting QBs are still on the ascent and excelling in the playoffs.
Moreover, have the NFL’s rules and “points of emphasis” for game officials
ever been more friendly to the offenses? Let’s also note how San Francisco
has gone “over” in 9 of 10 Colin Kaepernick games (including the 24-24 tie vs.
the Rams, when Kaepernick took over for the injured Alex Smith in the
second quarter). History shows that 13 of the last 19 Super Bowls with an
over/under line of less than 50 have gone “over” the posted total.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SAM MARTIN'S SUPER BOWL BONANZA (WON BIG LY)!!

San Francisco 49ers

PROPS

Frank Gore to win MVP +700

Frank Gore to score Games first TD +650

Frank Gore Rushing yards Over 82.5

Joe Flacco More passing Attempts -6.5

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Teddy Covers Big Ticket

20* S.F. 49ers

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GOODFELLA

3* SF 49ERS ML (-160) vs BALTIMORE

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DAVE ESSLER NFL Side - Sunday, Feb 3 2013 6:30PM
2* BALTIMORE +4 (-110) vs SF 49ERS

I can assure you guys that took +4 I will probably go back and play the SF ML, especially if it drops to -160, and perhaps will anyways. That's the value of getting a solid number. This is just one game, and it worked in the NFC Championship game, and we damned near did it last year with NEP/NYG and had til late. It's called making money, not being right in the big game. Anyone that cannot still get +4, I'd advise buying it if you can. Even at +3.5 there is value to perhaps trying to middle this. More to follow as always.

I ALSO played the SF ML at -165 for 1.5 Units.

PROP BETS

Both Kaepernick and Flacco are +165 to throw a TD pass in the fourth quarter.
I will make both bets and if either of them does, make money.

Flacco is +220 and Kaepernick is +243 to throw an interception in the first HALF.
I will play both of those as well. Even a Hail Mary pick as the clock expires works.

Flacco is +135 NOT to throw a pick for the game. Kaepernick is +105 NOT to throw a pick.
Slight risk that either/both throws one in the 2H, but at plus-money I'll take my chances.

A lead change in the second half is +165.
I'd like to think for the masses sake there is, and if it's as close as people think it will be, there might be.
Even a kick as time expires counts.

San Francisco wins by 1-9 points is +184.
San Francisco wins by 10-18 is +381
There are your hedges against playing Baltimore +4. With no risk whatsoever.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Super Bowl XLVII Betting Preview: Ravens vs. 49ers

Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers (-3.5, 47.5)

Brothers facing off as opposing head coaches. The finest linebacker of his generation - and arguably of all time - playing in the final game of his storied career. A pair of quarterbacks that few could envision playing for a championship - much less even setting foot on the field in the case of one of them. Those are among the myriad story lines taking center stage for the Super Bowl XLVII matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens on Sunday in New Orleans.

The matchup between Jim Harbaugh's 49ers and older brother John Harbaugh's Ravens nearly happened a year ago, but both teams lost nail-biters in their respective conference title games. San Francisco has history on its side - the 49ers are a perfect 5-0 in the Super Bowl - but also had the luxury of riding Hall of Fame quarterbacks Joe Montana and Steve Young during its title reigns. Niners QB Colin Kaerpernick has made only nine career starts and must solve a defense led by Ray Lewis, the MVP of Baltimore's only Super Bowl victory 12 years ago.

TV: 6:30 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE: San Francisco opened as high as -5 and was bet down as low as -3 before action on the favorite raised the spread to -3.5. Books predict the spread could climb as high as -4.5 by kickoff. The total came down from its opener of 50 to as low as 47 but with public money taking the over, books expect the number could get back to as high as 49 before late buyback on the under.

ABOUT THE RAVENS (13-6, 9-9-1 ATS): There were plenty of doubts about Joe Flacco's ability to lead a team to a championship, which is one reason he's set to hit the free-agent market. Flacco silenced even his staunchest skeptics with a stirring postseason run, throwing eight TD passes and zero interceptions in Baltimore's three victories. Along the way, he set an NFL record for most playoff road wins with six while outplaying Peyton Manning and Tom Brady on their turf. Flacco threw three second-half touchdowns to rally the Ravens to a 28-13 victory at New England in the AFC title game.

Two of the scoring passes went to Anquan Boldin, who has 16 receptions and three TDs in the three playoff wins. Speedster Torrey Smith had 10 TD receptions this season, including two long ones in the win at Denver. Ray Rice has carried the running game for his entire career, but rookie Bernard Pierce came on strong down the stretch. The Ravens' defense cannot compare to the dominant unit of the 2000 Super Bowl season but it limited the high-powered Patriots to a season-low 13 points. Lewis returned from a 10-game injury absence to make 44 tackles in the postseason as he approaches his last game.

ABOUT THE 49ERS (13-4-1, 11-7-0 ATS): Jim Harbaugh made the biggest coaching gamble of the season when he inserted the dynamic but untested Kaepernick into the lineup in place of Alex Smith. The second-year quarterback has had moments of sheer brilliance, helping San Francisco blow away Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers by throwing for 263 yards and two TDs and rushing for 181 yards and two more scores in his playoff debut. Kaepernick played a more controlled game in the NFC championship game, calmly rallying the 49ers from a 17-0 deficit, and will enter the Super Bowl with the third-fewest starts for a quarterback.

Frank Gore rushed for 90 yards and two touchdowns against the Falcons and provides the tough inside running to prevent the Ravens from attempting to tee off on Kaepernick. Tight end Vernon Davis emerged from a long slumber with five catches for 106 yards and a TD two weeks ago and wideout Michael Crabtree has 50 receptions in his last seven games. San Francisco's defense allowed the second-fewest points (17.1) during the regular season but has been lit up for at least 31 points in three of its final five games and had trouble defending the deep ball against the Falcons.

TRENDS:

* The Ravens downed the Niners, 16-6, on Thanksgiving Day last year, marking the only time Jim Harbaugh has come up short in a non-conference tilt, as he is 7-1 SU and ATS against the AFC. That ties into his 19-5 SU and 18-4-2 ATS record in all games played outside the NFC West division.

* Super Bowl favorites are 20-12 SU and 13-17-2 ATS record in the last 32 Big Games, including 5-10-2 ATS the last 17 games.

* The NFC has held the upper hand over the AFC in Super Bowl games since the 1980 season, going 21-10 SU and 20-9-3 ATS, including 4-0 SU and ATS the last four years. However, the NFC is only 6-9 SU and 8-6-1 ATS in the last 13 Super Bowl contests.

* Twenty-eight points is the cut-line for favorites in Super Bowl games. Since 1980, those who failed to score 28 points in the big game are 1-16-1 ATS. Those who managed to tally 28 or more points are 12-1-1 ATS. Baltimore has surrendered 28 or more points in 13 of 93 games under John Harbaugh, including twice in 12 playoff games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Baltimore has won the last three meetings, including a 16-6 win on Thanksgiving Day in 2011.

2. A win will lift San Francisco into a tie with the Pittsburgh Steelers for the most Super Bowl victories.

3. The 49ers and Ravens are only the second pair of teams to reach the Super Bowl after losing in their conference title games the previous season (Pittsburgh and Dallas, 1994-95).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with N.C. State (-1) on Saturday.

Sunday it’s the 49ers. The deficit is 20 sirignanos.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

HANDICAPPING KINGS

JIMMY

6:30PM Baltimore Ravens vs San Francisco 49ers
[101] UNDER 47.5 -109

GOODFELLAS

1:00PM Iowa vs Minnesota
[810] Minnesota -9.5 -110

PJ

WTA - OPEN GDF SUEZ - FRANCE

8:00AM Sara Errani vs Mona Barthel
[302] Mona Barthel -165

PERRY

ENGLAND - PREMIER LEAGUE

TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR/ WEST BROMWICH ALBION OVER 2.5 -110(830am)

ITALY - SERIE A-UDINESE

CALCIO/ AC MILAN OVER 2.5 -125 (1130am)

SPAIN - LA LIGA

RCD MALLORCA/ REAL SOCIEDAD OVER 2.5 -120 (3pm)

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Gold Medal Club Selections 02/03/2013

NFL Super Bowl:
#102 San Francisco -4

CBB:
#819 Wisconsin -1

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Scott Spreitzer - KO Play 49ers

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Matt Fargo - 10* Ravens

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Larry Ness - 10* Ravens

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NBA

Hot Teams
-- Celtics won last three games, by 2-18-13 points (2-3 HU).
-- Lakers won four of last five games (5-7-1 AF).
-- Miami won five of last seven games (3-8 last 11 AF).

Cold Teams
-- Clippers lost five of last seven games (1-6 last seven AF).
-- Pistons lost four of last six games (6-5 HU).
-- Raptors lost seven of last ten games (8-4 HU).

Totals
-- Last three Clipper games stayed under the total.
-- Four of last five Detroit games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Miami games went over the total; four of last five Toronto games stayed under.

Back-to-backs
-- None.