4-8-13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bob Balfe

NCAA Title Game Pick

April 8th 2013

Louisville -3.5 over Michigan
One word. Leadership. Michigan is the youngest team in the tournament and here they are. Coach Beilein pretty much made turned water into wine with this group this year and is one of the best coaches in all of basketball. This team is made up mostly of freshman that probably will bolt to the NBA next year. Its not good for a program to have one and done type players. Louisville does it right with guys that stay all four years. If ever there was a game that the Cardinals would slip up it would have been the game against Wichita State. Everyone was so focused on Kevin Ware. The media was all over Louisville that whole week and it showed in their slow start against Wichita State. This team was down 12 late and willed their way to a big win. Nothing rattles this team. Michigan has lived by the three pointer this entire tournament. I am not knocking it because it takes tremendous skill, but you can only launch and connect on so many 30 ft prayers. This Cardinal Defense is going to be like nothing Michigan has seen this entire tournament. This is the best team in the nation and its time for them to go finish the season off as champion. There is no secret into who should win this game. As a fan I would love to see Michigan because they are a bunch of young hungry players, but I see a team that wont be able to get easy buckets. Syracuse pretty much did everything they could to lose that game against Michigan. Credit the Wolverines, but I just don’t see them having any answers against all of the talent on this Louisville team. I really hope that this dome setting doesn’t ruin a good game. I know the NCAA is all about packing as many fans into the stadium as possible to make more money, but something about this type of arena just does not sit well with me as a fan to the game. The under in this game is probably not a bad option, but lets stick winning or losing with having to pick the winner tonight. Take the Cardinals.

MLB
Astros/Mariners Over 7 runs
Humber/Saunders
The Astros are off to an expected slow start in their switch to the AL this year, but they are a little bit better against left handed pitching and this is not the same boring Seattle team that we are used to year after year. Seattle will be able to put up runs this year with their new lineup. If they get decent pitching they could make a run to the playoffs. Saunders struggled in his first start this year and I expect the Astros to put up a couple runs on him. I think 7 is a soft line based on Seattle’s past history. Both teams batters should be on base today and send this over the number. Houston has a weak bullpen so I expect Seattle to also score some late runs. Take the Over.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CBB

Favorites covered 10 of last 13 national title games; #1 seeds are 5-1 vs spread in last six finals when facing lower seed. Louisville was down 12 in second half Saturday; they're #2 in country at forcing turnovers, but Michigan is #1 in protecting ball- they hammered VCU, #1 team forcing turnovers. Wolverines were down 10 with 2:32 to go in regional semis, so both teams have stared down grim reaper. Cardinals won last 15 in a row since losing a five-OT game Feb 9; their last nine games went over total. Michigan is 3-2 as an underdog this season; they're 2-0 vs Big East teams, beating Pitt/Syracuse by 5 points each. Four Wolverine starters played 35+ minutes Saturday; only one sub played more than 5 minutes. Louisville played three subs 10+ minutes Saturday; they won despite a subpar game from Dieng (one shot, no points, 30 minutes). Last #1 seed to lose national title game to lower seed: '97 Kentucky, to Arizona.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Hot pitchers
-- JGarcia is 3-0, 1.69 in his last four starts. Latos is 2-1, 3.19 in his last five.
-- Harvey is 3-2, 1.84 in his last seven starts.
-- Maholm is 2-1, 1.39 in his last four starts.
-- Cahill is 4-2, 3.15 in his last six starts. WRodriguez is 2-0, 2.41 in his last three starts.
-- Bumgarner is 2-0, 0.00 in his last two starts (15 IP).

-- WChen is 1-0, 3.00 in his last couple starts.
-- Kuroda is 2-2, 3.34 in his last five starts.
-- Correia is 2-0, 1.98 in his last couple starts.
-- Hellickson is 2-1, 2.84 in his last seven starts. Ogando shut Houston out for 6.1 IP in his first start since '11.
-- Saunders is 2-2, 3.32 in his last six starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Estrada is 1-1, 5.82 in his last three starts. Jackson is 1-3, 8.00 in his last four starts.
-- Halladay is 2-2, 9.67 in his last five starts.
-- Slowey is 0-5, 7.71 in his last five starts.
-- de la Rosa is 0-2, 10.80 in his last four starts.

-- Buchholz is 0-3, 7.20 in his last three home starts.
-- Jimenez is 0-6, 6.75 in his last nine starts.
-- Santana is 1-3, 5.40 in his last four starts.
-- Humber is 1-2, 6.20 in his last four starts.

Totals
-- Five of six Cub games stayed under total; five of six Milwaukee games went over the total.
-- Last four Cincinnati games went over the total.
-- Four of six Philly games went over the total.
-- Three of last four Atlanta games stayed under total.
-- Five of six Pittsburgh games stayed under the total.
-- Last three Colorado games stayed under total; three of last four Giant tilts went over.

-- Five of six Baltimore games went over the total.
-- Over is 4-1-1 in first six Bronx games.
-- Three of last four Minnesota games went over the total.
-- Four of six Tampa Bay games went over the total.
-- Last three Houston games went over the total.

Hot teams
-- Cincinnati won four of its last five games. Cardinals won last two games, scoring 20 runs.
-- Mets won four of their first six games.
-- Braves won five of their first six games.
-- Arizona won five of its first six games.
-- Colorado won its last five games, scoring 35 runs.

-- Red Sox won four of their first six games.
-- Minnesota won four of its last five games. Royals won three of last four.
-- Rangers won four of their last five games.

Cold teams
-- Cubs lost three of their last four games. Milwaukee lost last five games, allowing 35 runs.
-- Phillies lost four of their last six games.
-- Miami lost five of its first six games.
-- Pittsburgh lost five of its first six games.
-- Giants lost last two games, allowing 20 runs; they scored 3 or less runs in five of their six games.

-- Orioles lost last two games, allowing ten runs.
-- Bronx Bombers lost four of first six games. Indians lost three of their last four games.
-- Mariners lost four of their last five games. Astros lost their last five games, scoring eight runs.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL

Hot teams
-- Rangers won three of their last four games. Toronto won four of last five.
-- Bruins won three of their last four games.
-- Ducks won three of their last four games.
-- Vancouver won eight of last ten games. Coyotes won four of their last five games.

Cold teams
-- Carolina lost four in row, 11 of last 12 games.
-- Colorado lost four in row, 12 of last 14 games. Flames lost their last six games, outscored 27-10.
-- Edmonton lost its last two games, 4-0/4-1.

Totals
-- Five of last six Ranger-Toronto games went over the total.
-- Under is 11-1-2 in last fourteen Boston games.
-- Last five Colorado games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last seven Anaheim games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 8-1-2 in last eleven Vancouver games.

Series records
-- Rangers won six of last eight games with Toronto.
-- Hurricanes won four of last five games with Boston.
-- Avalanche won four of last five games with Calgary.
-- Ducks won five of last six games with Edmonton.
-- Coyotes won three of last four games with Vancouver.

Back-to-backs
-- Anaheim is 5-3 if it won night before, 2-2 if it won.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DCI Pro Hockey
The Daniel Curry Index

04/08/13 Predictions

Season: 221-142 (.609)

BOSTON 4, Carolina 2
TORONTO 3, N.Y. Rangers 2
Calgary vs. COLORADO: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
VANCOUVER 3, Phoenix 2
ANAHEIM 3, Edmonton 2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's NHL Picks

NY Rangers at Toronto

The Rangers look to build on their 4-0 record in their last 4 games in Toronto. New York is the pick (-110) according to Dunkel, which has the Rangers favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (-110). Here are all of today's picks.

MONDAY, APRIL 8 Time Posted 6:00 a.m. EST

Game 51-52: NY Rangers at Toronto (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Rangers 11.488; Toronto 11.292 Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1/2; 5 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Toronto (-110); 5 Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (-110); Over

Game 53-54: Carolina at Boston (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 9.109; Boston 11.932 Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 3; 4 Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-220); 5 Dunkel Pick: Boston (-220); Under

Game 55-56: Calgary at Colorado (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 10.485; Colorado 10.294 Dunkel Line & Total: Calgary by 1/2; 6 Vegas Line & Total: Colorado (-155); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Calgary (+135); Over

Game 57-58: Edmonton at Anaheim (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 11.364; Anaheim 11.996 Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 1/2; 5 Vegas Line & Total: Anaheim (-160); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (-160); Under

Game 59-60: Phoenix at Vancouver (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 12.283; Vancouver 12.720 Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1/2; 4 Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-175); 5 Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (-175); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Free Plays are 1014-751 (57 + %) over the last 4 1/2 years !

Free winner MON: SF Giants -165

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gamblers Data

Free Play Monday

Giants -165

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gamblers Data (Fletcher)

MON NCAAH

4* OVER 137.5

Baseball off to 18-7 start

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hockey Crusher
Toronto Maple Leafs -102 over Ny Rangers
(System Record: 43-3, won last 3 games)
Overall Record: 43-31-1

Basketball Crusher
Michigan +4 over Louisville
(System Record: 84-4, lost last 2 games)
Overall Record: 84-64-4

Baseball Crusher
St. Louis Cardinals -108 over Cincy Reds
(System Record: 6-0, lost last 3 games)
Overall Record: 6-5

Soccer Crusher
Arsenal de Sarandi + Estudiantes OVER 2
This match is happening in Argentina
(System Record: 383-14, won last 4 games and a push)
Overall Record: 383-328-45

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cappers Access

Michigan +4
Reds

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Monday, April 8

Bank shots: NBA betting news and notes

Each week, we look back on the NBA betting scene and give you the best –and worst – basketball bets, as well as some spots to keep an eye on with the upcoming schedule.

For the week of March 31-April 6

Hottest ATS

New York Knicks (4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS)

The New York Knicks are riding an 11-game win streak (10-1 ATS) into Oklahoma City on Sunday afternoon. Forward Carmelo Anthony has put up point totals of 50, 40 and 41 for 131 points on 64 percent shooting in the last three contests. In 10 games since returning from a knee injury, Melo has averaged 32.4 points per game.

Coldest ATS

Boston Celtics (1-3 SU, 0-4 ATS)

The Celtics have failed to cover to in four straight and six of their last seven as they continue to plummet down the East standings. Boston is guaranteed a playoff spot, but if its slide continues it could be destined for a date with the Miami Heat in the first round. The Celtics host the Nets Sunday before Brooklyn rolls into Beantown.

Best over play

Phoenix Suns (0-2 SU, 2-0 over/under)

Can it get any worse for the Suns? Phoenix has dropped eight straight and 12 of its last 13 games. The Suns have also played over the number in four straight and six of their last contests. Phoenix hosts New Orleans Sunday before embarking on a three-game road trip.

Best under play

Memphis Grizzlies (2-1 SU, 0-3 over/under)

The Grizzlies’ team dynamic changed after they shipped to Rudy Gay to Toronto, prompting a peculiar amount of overs, but Memphis has returned to its stout defensive ways and has its under bettors cashing again. The Grizz have gone low in four consecutive games and 10 of their last 14 contests. Memphis visits Sacramento Sunday before hosting lowly Charlotte.

Scouting the schedule:

-The Milwaukee Bucks have clinched a playoff berth in the East, but moving up from the eighth seed will be awfully tough down the stretch. The Bucks play five of their last six contests away from home, which includes tough stops in Miami, Atlanta and Oklahoma City. Milwaukee is 15-20-1 O/U on the road.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JOE WIZ FREE PLAY

Under 9 runs Pittsburgh and Arizona.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BEN BURNS

10* Louisville-3.5

10*Under 138.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

KYLE HUNTER

3* Star Michigan/Louisville Total Domination*
under 138.5

The Michigan Wolverines and Louisville Cardinals will play for the NCAA Basketball Championship on Monday night. It's no surprise that Louisville is here as they were the top seed overall, but Michigan is a small surprise here as a number four seed. The young Wolverines have really hit their stride in the NCAA Tournament. Louisville likes to push the tempo, but the Cardinals also have what is arguably the best defense in college basketball. Russ Smith and Peyton Siva are defensive pests on the perimeter, and there isn't a better defensive center in the nation than Gorgui Dieng. Dieng should make it tough for Mitch McGary to score down low in this one, and he'll cut down on Trey Burke's ability to penetrate. Louisville generally scores a lot of points off of opponents turnovers, but Michigan turns the ball over less than any team in the country. Michigan has plenty of ball handlers, and I expect them to handle the Louisville pressure relatively well. On a neutral floor like this one and in a game of this magnitude, we often see the game slow down. Louisville likes to push the tempo, but the Cardinals offense isn't all that great in the halfcourt. If Michigan takes care of the ball, Louisville isn't likely to get nearly as many easy looks as they are accustomed to getting. I had this one projected at 135 points. Take the under here.


Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals (MLB) - 4:10 PM EDT

Pick: Total: Over 8.5/-120

3* Star MLB Play of the Day*

The Minnesota Twins have the worst pitching staff in the American League (and probably the majors overall as well). Kansas City has been expected to rise in the AL Central over the past couple years, but it has been their pitching that has held them back each season. Kansas City's offense exploded for 25 runs in their three-game series in Philadelphia, and I do expect the Royals to score a lot of runs this year. Minnesota's offense isn't great, but when you have Mauer, Willingham, and Morneau in the middle of the order, you are going to put together some good innings. Ervin Santana hasn't been trustworthy over the last couple years, and he was very shaky in his debut for the Royals. Kevin Correia doesn't have dominating stuff, and I expect the Royals to be able to get to him in this one. It doesn't hurt that the wind is expected to be blowing out on a Spring afternoon in Kansas City. The over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these teams. Take the over.