10-6-13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jack Jones NFL Football Premium Picks

NFL | Oct 06 '13 (1:00p) Kansas City Chiefs vs Tennessee Titans	Kansas City Chiefs -2½-109 at 5dimes
15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 The Kansas City Chiefs are a completely new team under first-year head coach Andy Reid and quarterback Alex Smith. While the offense has been vastly improved under the guidance of these two, it’s the young defense that has really blossomed right before everyone’s eyes. The Chiefs have opened 4-0 and they certainly want to keep that momentum going as they roll into Tennessee Sunday. Kansas City ranks 1st in the league in scoring defense, giving up just 10.2 points and 306.2 total yards per game. The offense is putting up 25.5 points and 347.2 total yards per game to really compliment the defense. The Chiefs just aren’t turning the ball over, giving it away just three times all season while forcing 12 turnovers for a +9 differential. Smith has been sharp, completing 60.3 percent of his passes for 957 yards with seven touchdowns and two interceptions. Meanwhile, Tennessee is going to be without its starting quarterback for the next four-to-six weeks. Jake Locker suffered a hip strain last week in their win over the Jets, and that loss is absolutely huge. Locker was completing 62.2 percent of his passes for 721 yards with six touchdowns and zero interceptions, while also rushing for 98 yards and a score before going down. His backup, Ryan Fitzpatrick, went just 3 of 8 passing against the Jets last week in replace of Locker. He’s had his chances as a starter before in Buffalo and hasn’t taken advantage of them. Tennessee is actually getting outgained on the season, so this 3-1 team is certainly a fraud coming into this contest. It is getting way too much respect from the books due to this start. Remarkably, the Titans haven't turned the ball over once all season. That trend obviously won't keep up, especially with Fitzpatrick now running the offense. Fitzpatrick has thrown a whopping 81 interceptions over 75 games played in his career. He is also not mobile like Locker, taking 144 sacks in his career. His immobility will really cost the Titans against a Kansas City defense that has recorded an NFL-high 18 sacks through four games. The Titans are 0-6 against the spread vs. good teams that outscored their opponents by 6 or more points per game on the season over the last three seasons. Mike Munchak is 2-9 against the spread when playing against a team with a winning record as the coach of Tennessee. Munchak is also 0-6 against the spread versus good offensive teams that score 24 or more points per game as the coach of Tennessee. Roll with the Chiefs Sunday.

NFL | Oct 06 '13 (1:00p) Seattle Seahawks vs Indianapolis Colts	Seattle Seahawks -1-129 at 5dimes
15* Seahawks/Colts NFL Sunday No-Brainer on Seattle -1 There's no question in my mind that the Seattle Seahawks are the best team in the league in 2013. Even in an off performance last week, they managed to find a way to rally and beat Houston 23-20 in overtime on the road. This team is gaining a lot of confidence as the season goes on with each victory. Seattle ranks 6th in the league in scoring offense at 27.2 points per game, and 2nd in the league in scoring defense at 11.8 points per game. This team is consistently undervalued on the road because of the reputation they get for having such a dominant home-field advantage. Well, they have won five of their last six road games dating back to last season with their only loss coming to the Falcons in the Georgia Dome on a last-second field goal in the playoffs by a final of 28-30. Russell Wilson continues to lack the respect he deserves. He ranks ninth in the league with a 95.3 passer rating and is fifth among quarterbacks with 131 rushing yards. When the pocket breaks down, he has a sixth sense that is unmatched by any other quarterback in the league. Wilson rushed for 77 yards against Houston last week as he simply refused to go down time and time again. I believe Indianapolis is one of the biggest frauds in the NFL. It went 11-5 last season, but won nine of ten games that were decided by a touchdown or less. It is also off to a 3-1 start this season, getting too much credit for wins at San Francisco and at Jacksonville over the past two weeks. The 49ers had huge injury problems that week and were deflated coming off a bad 3-29 loss to Seattle the previous week. The Colts have not looked good at home, needing to come from behind in the fourth quarter to beat the Raiders 21-17 as an 11-point favorite in Week 1, and falling to Miami 20-24 in Week 2. The Seahawks are a perfect 6-0 against the spread in their last six road games, further devaluing the theory that their not a good road team. Seattle is a perfect 8-0 against the spread in its last eight games vs. a team with a winning record. The Seahawks are 7-0 ATS vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 6+ PPG on the season over the last 3 seasons. Seattle is 6-0 ATS vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons. The Seahawks are 7-0 ATS after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. These five trends combine for a perfect 34-0 system backing Seattle. Take the Seahawks Sunday. Note: I recommend buying the Seahawks to -2.5 or less if you have the option.

NFL | Oct 06 '13 (1:00p) New England Patriots vs Cincinnati Bengals	New England Patriots +1-110 at betus
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on New England Patriots +1 After opening the season with a pair of ugly wins over the Bills and Jets, the Patriots have been scary good the last two weeks. They beat Tampa Bay 23-3 at home in Week 3 before picking up their biggest win of the season last week in a 30-23 victory at Atlanta. Almost nobody escapes the Georgia Dome with a victory, and the Patriots were able to accomplish that feat. The defense is thriving, and the offense is finally getting untracked now that Tom Brady is getting accustomed to his new receivers. Brady is coming off his best performance of the season, throwing for 316 yards and two touchdowns against Atlanta. He is getting comfortable with new top targets Kenbrell Thompkins and Julian Edelman. Thompkins had six receptions for 127 yards and a touchdown against the Falcons, while Edelman caught seven balls for 118 yards in the win. The Patriots now rank 11th in the league in total offense at 367.2 yards per game. What has been most impressive is the improvement from the defense, which ranks 6th in the league in scoring (14.2 points/game). Cincinnati isn’t doing much of anything well this season. Its offense ranks 22nd in the league, averaging just 20.2 points and 327.5 total yards per game. The Bengals have been one-dimensional, ranking just 22nd in rushing offense at 83.8 yards per game and 3.4 per carry. I understand the Vince Wilfork injury is huge, but his loss won't come into play as much this week against a Bengals team that cannot run the football as it is. The Bengals managed just 266 total yards in a 6-17 loss at Cleveland last week. Brady should be able to pick apart a Cincinnati secondary that is hurting right now. It was without three starters last week against Cleveland, and while free safety Reggie Nelson returned to practice this week, starting cornerbacks Leon Hall and Dre Kirkpatrick have not. All three defensive backs remain questionable to return this week. Even if any or all three of them go, they'll clearly be rusty without getting the reps in practice. New England is certainly a team that you need to practice for to be fully prepared. The Patriots have won four straight meetings with the Bengals by 14, 21, 25 and 7 points, respectively. Their last two trips to Cincinnati resulted in 34-13 and 38-13 blowouts. Bill Belichick is 40-19 against the spread as an underdog as the coach of New England. Marvin Lewis is 2-10 against the spread off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival as the coach of Cincinnati. The Patriots are 21-7-1 against the spread in their last 29 October games. The Bengals are 2-7-1 against the number in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Patriots Sunday.

-= TOP PLAY =-

NFL | Oct 06 '13 (4:05p) Carolina Panthers vs Arizona Cardinals	Carolina Panthers -1-110 at 5dimes
25* NFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Carolina Panthers -1 The Carolina Panthers are coming off their most lopsided win in the franchise's 19-year history. They beat the New York Giants 38-0 at home on September 22, limiting them to just 150 total yards while forcing three turnovers. That win gave them a ton of confidence heading into their bye week, and now they're refreshed and ready to go Sunday at Arizona. While Carolina is just 1-2 this season, its two losses came by a combined six points to Seattle (7-12) and Buffalo (23-24). I really like the improvement I've seen from the defense, which ranks 3rd in the league in scoring, allowing just 12.0 points per game. This defense should have its way with an Arizona offense that ranks 25th in scoring (17.2 points/game) and 26th in total offense (320.2 yards/game). The Cardinals have been held to a combined 20 points in their last two games, a 7-31 loss at New Orleans, and a 13-10 victory at Tampa Bay. That win over the Bucs was far from impressive, and a late comeback for the victory has the Cardinals getting more respect than they deserve from oddsmakers heading into this one. Carolina's offense put up 402 total yards in the win over the Giants to get untracked. DeAngelo Williams rushed for 120 yards on 23 carries and has averaged 125.3 yards on 6.0 per carry over his last four games since last season. The Panthers have won seven of their last eight regular season meetings with the Cardinals with their only loss during this stretch coming in 2011. That was Cam Newton's rookie debut, and all he did was throw for 422 yards and two touchdowns. This Carolina team has come a long way since then, and I believe it is one of the most underrated teams in the league to this point. I love looking at teams coming off a bye, especially when they are on the road and they are favored. In fact, road favorites off a bye are 39-14 (73.6%) ATS since 2003. Not only do I believe Carolina is the superior team in this one, I also love the extra rest and preparation it has coming into this contest. Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ARIZONA) - slow starting team - outscored by 5+ PPG in the first half, after scoring 14 points or less last game are 30-7 (81.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Cardinals are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Arizona is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games following a S.U. win. Bet the Panthers Sunday.

-= TOP PLAY =-

NFL | Oct 06 '13 (8:30p) Houston Texans vs San Francisco 49ers

Houston Texans +7-130 at bodog

20* Texans/49ers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Houston +7 There’s no question that Houston is one of the best teams in the league that currently has a record of .500 or worse. This team really should be 4-0 right now, but it continues to give games away. For example, the Texans had a 20-3 lead against Seattle and let it slip away, eventually losing in overtime last week. This team will come out with a chip on its shoulder after such a tough loss. That’s the same Seattle team that put a 29-3 beat down on the 49ers in Week 2. Matt Schaub has already thrown three interceptions that were returned for touchdowns. Obviously, it’s very tough to overcome those type of mistakes and win games. However, I look for Schaub to take much better care of the football the rest of the way, starting with this week against the 49ers. The numbers don’t lie, the Texans are still one of the best teams in the league. They rank 5th in the league in total offense at 410.2 yards per game, and 1st in total defense at 254.2 yards per game. As you can see, they are outgaining opponents by a whopping 156.0 total yards per game this season. That's by far the best mark in the league and one that would be more indicative of a team that is 4-0 rather than one that is 2-2. Due to that 2-2 record, the Texans are clearly undervalued heading into this one. I believe they are the better team and have an excellent chance to win outright. The numbers are also telling for the 49ers as being just a mediocre team in 2013. That’s especially the case offensively where they rank just 21st in the league in total offense at 331.2 yards per game. This is a team that was blown out by both Seattle (3-29) and Indianapolis (7-27) in back-to-back weeks. The injuries are mounting up in San Francisco with the likes of Ian Williams, Patrick Willis, Joe Staley and Nnamdi Asomugha. Not to mention 2012′s NFL sack leader, Aldon Smith, is out as he continues to serve a suspension. San Francisco is 0-9 against the spread in its last nine games versus teams who force 0.75 or less turnovers per game. The Texans are 35-16 against the number in their last 51 games following two or more consecutive losses. The 49ers are 5-13-2 against the spread in their last 20 games following a SU win of more than 14 points. Gary Kubiak is 18-9 against the number off two or more consecutive losses as the coach of Houston. Take the Texans Sunday. Note: I recommend buying the Texans to +7 if you have the option.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scott Kellen of Sixth Sense Sports

Goldent Nugget Contest Plays

1. Jacksonville +11.5
2. Bears +1
3. Colts +3
4. Broncos Over 57.5
5. Raiders+4.5
6. Packers -7
7. Packers/Lions Over 53.5 BEST BET

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Broncos at Cowboys: What bettors need to know

Denver Broncos at Dallas Cowboys (+7.5, 56)

The Denver Broncos are setting a historic offensive pace and quarterback Peyton Manning appears to be three steps ahead of every defense he faces. The Dallas Cowboys, who host Manning and the Broncos on Sunday, are averaging 33.5 points in two home wins and could need at least that much to stay close. Manning has thrown 16 touchdowns and no interceptions through four games and is on pace to shatter the single-season TD mark.

Denver is putting up 44.8 points and nearly 500 yards of offense and is coming off a 52-20 drubbing of the Philadelphia Eagles. That offense is masking some potential issues on the other side of the ball, where the Broncos rank in the bottom third of the league in total defense. The Cowboys are not much better on defense and gave up 506 yards while squandering a lead in a 31-20 loss at San Diego last week.

TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS.
LINE: The Broncos opened as 5-point road faves and are now -7.5. The total is 56.
WEATHER: N/A

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (4-0): Manning formed a quick connection with Wes Welker and has weapons spread across the field in wide receivers Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker and tight end Julius Thomas. That passing attack opens up the ground game for a trio of backs in Knowshon Moreno, Montee Ball and Ronnie Hillman. Denver still thinks it can get better on the offensive side of the ball and is due for an upgrade on the defensive side, where linebacker Von Miller has yet to play while sitting out a six-game suspension and cornerback Champ Bailey (foot) is still waiting to make his season debut.

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (2-2): Dallas is down two defensive starters in linebacker Justin Durant (groin) and defensive end George Selvie (concussion), who were both missing from practice on Thursday and are uncertain for Sunday’s game. That puts even more pressure on Tony Romo and the offense to put up points, which they failed to do while being shut out in the second half of last week’s loss. Romo is completing 72.4 percent of his passes with eight touchdowns and one interception but could be missing one of his weapons with wideout Miles Austin (hamstring) questionable.

TRENDS:

* Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Over is 5-1 in Cowboys last six home games.
* Broncos are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Broncos have won 15 consecutive regular-season games, each by seven points or more.

2. Romo is 4-1 with 14 TD passes and one INT in his last five home games.

3. Denver LB Danny Trevathon was carted off the field at practice on Wednesday with a knee injury but came through an MRI exam clean and could make Sunday‘s game.

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Where the action is: Broncos most popular play

Week 5 in the NFL features a slew of tight pointspreads and a few totals north of 50. We talk with sportsbooks about the biggest line adjustments, betting trends and where the odds will end up come kickoff Sunday.

New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears - Open: -1, Move: +1

The Saints haven't won at Soldier Field since 2002 but are a very popular play heading into Sunday. Uncharacteristically, the Saints own a strong defense, as they displayed strength on that side of the ball against Miami one week ago.

"Chicago will need to get Jay Cutler playing better but the New Orleans pass rush will have a lot to say," Aron Black of bet365 told Covers. "Close game to call, but New Orleans being flipped to small faves is probably right. This may go more to them as the Bears are being swerved so far."

New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals - Open: Pick, Move: +1.5

One of the handful of games that opened as a pick at various shops. The Patriots have essentially owned the Bengals over the years, winning seven of eight matchups and coming out victorious all four with Tom Brady. The Pats are always one of the most popular plays amongst public bettors and this week is no different.

"New England has been one of the best public teams in regular season play and this weekend the punters are showing faith in them with mostly all of our ATS and SU action on NE at pick or +1," Black said. "Cincy needs to find some better play from QB Andy Dalton, and limit turnovers, either way, if there is a coach who can find a way to beat a team, its Bill Belichick."

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers - Open: -6.5, Move: -7.5

The Green Bay Packers look to extend their dominance over the Detroit Lions at Lambeau Field. The Lions haven't won in Wisconsin since 1991 and sharps and the betting public are both loving the Cheese in this NFC North matchup.

"Wiseguys and the heavy majority of betting public are both on the Pack, who opened -6.5 and are now -7.5," Mike Perry of Sportsbook.ag tells Covers. "We got sharp action on Green Bay -6.5 on Monday and on Friday we decided to move to -7.5 as 73 percent of cash on the number 7 was backing Green Bay."

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants - Open: -3, Move: -2

A terrible start to the season both SU (0-4) and ATS (0-4) has bettors staying away from the Giants this week. Early sharp money on Philly had moved the line to under a field goal.

"Sharp play on the underdog Eagles at +3 on Tuesday caused us to move to New York -2," Perry said. "Seventy percent of cash is coming in on the Eagles. Giants are 0-4 ATS this season."

Jacksonville Jaguars at St. Louis Rams - Open: 41.5, Move: 41

Talk about a snoozer. Both of these squads don't have much to offer on either side of the ball, especially on offense. Not the most appealing of matchups, but bettors are backing the under between these two anemic offenses.

"The under is getting played here as this game could be painful to watch, and a battle of who can run the ball less," says Black. "St. Louis has looked very ordinary and were not offering much offensively last week, but Jacksonville has been just plain awful."

Denver Broncos at Dallas Cowboys - Open: -7, Move: -9

The Broncos are one of four teams (Seattle, San Diego and Tennessee) to not suffer an ATS defeat thus far on the season and are being backed rigorously. They opened as TD faves at Dallas, but were rapidly bet up to -9.

"Being one of only two games that kickoff around 4 p.m. ET, this game has a good chance to be the biggest decision for the shop on Sunday," says Perry. "Denver opened -7 and quickly went to -9. Seventy-nine percent of cash on Broncos."

Aron Black suggests Cowboys' backers should hold off and wait until closer to kickoff.

"Those who have faith in Dallas are probably best to wait as most likely this line goes to Denver before Sunday," he says. "Of all games we have this week, Denver is the most popular play - ATS, fave, dog or otherwise."

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Teddy Covers
20* Big Ticket: Oakland +4
10* Indianapolis +3
10* Green Bay -7
10* Kansas City -2.5

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Denver vs. Dallas - October 6, 2013 - 4:25 PM

Pick: Your pick will be graded at sportsinteraction @ Under 57 100
Expert: Ben Burns
Evaluation: Oct 6 - 4:25 PM
Reason For Pick:
I'm playing on Dallas and Denver to finish UNDER the total. The Broncos keep winning and their games keep soaring over the total. In turn, their O/U lines keep going up. Last week's O/U line was by far the Broncos' highest yet, now this week's O/U line is roughly just as high. However, this is an entirely different type of team than the one that the Broncos faced last week.

Last week, the Broncos were up against an Eagle team which is allowing 34.5 points and 447 yards per game, one which was looking to trade points with them.
I have a feeling that Monte Kiffin's defense will give them some trouble and that Manning will come back down to earth, if only a little.

The Cowboys are allowing 19 points and 355 yards per game here. They allowed just seven points and 232 total yards their last game here, while running the ball 34 times.

Fox has noted that he'd like to see more from the running game and a better fourth quarter defense.

While the Cowboys know they'll need to score some points to win this game, they also know that the best way to slow down Manning is to keep him on the sidelines. I expect them to emphasize establishing the ground game and then trying their best to stick with it. Ultimately, I expect that to help keep the final combined score beneath the big number, the UNDER moving to 10-4 the last few seasons, when the Cowboys were catching points. 9*

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Maximum Football - NFL Over/Under Game of the Week - Oct. 6

3* #425/426 'OVER 50' New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears 12:00 PM CT

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Todays Best Bets

5* - [413] Kansas City Chiefs -1 -130 vs Tennessee Titans

5* - [419] New England Patriots PK -110 vs Cincinnati Bengals

4* - [432] Oakland Raiders +4.5 -110 vs San Diego Chargers

3* - [434] Dallas Cowboys +8.5 -135 vs Denver Broncos

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GoodFella

NFL Week #5

(2*) 7 pt Teaser of the Week (-130)

#433 DENVER BRONCOS pk to #435 HOUSTON TEXANS +13.5

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River city sharps

3 bengals

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Pigskin Prophecy

S.A.R.G.E.
...take Tennessee to upset Kansas City


LIKE:
Baltimore
Jacksonville
Carolina
San Diego
Atlanta

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Northcoast Economy Club NL

1. New Orleans +1 over Chicago TOP SELECTION
2. St Louis -11 over Jacksonville
3. New England +2 over Cincinnati
4. Dallas +7.5 over Denver
5. Baltimore +3 over Miami

[Can'tPickAWinner]

THE GOLD SHEET

♦♦♦♦ KEY RELEASES ♦♦♦♦
CHICAGO by 13 over New Orleans
SAN DIEGO by 17 over Oakland
------------------------
UNDER the total in the Jacksonville-St. Louis game

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CKO

10 *CINCINNATI over New England
Late Score Forecast:
*CINCINNATI 27 - New England 16
The schedule has broken nicely for New England so far. The Pats faced rookie QB E.J. Manuel of the Bills in their opener. Then it was rookie Geno Smith and the Jets in Game Two. Then, the struggling Josh Freeman of the Buccaneers in Game Three. Yes, New England won at Atlanta in Game Four, but the Falcons started the game with three starters out and then lost three more during the contest! This time, the Pats have to play outdoors, on the grass vs. an angry Cincinnati off a poor performance in Cleveland. The Bengals are strong at the skill positions, have added rookie TE Tyler Eifert & quick rookie RB Gio Bernard, not to mention enjoying the return of possession WR Mohamed Sanu. Rather than facing the young CBs of the Falcons, the new N.E. WRs will have to deal with the experienced DBs of Cincy. After their 2-2 start vs. a slate much tougher than that of N.E., this is an early high-priority contest for the Cats.

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KILLER SPORTS NEWSLETTER

MTI’s Newsletter Teaser Plays...

Two-Team, Six-Point Teaser Play of the Week
Denver -1, Philadelphia +9

Three-Team, Ten-Point Teaser Play of the Week
Baltimore +13, Chicago +10, Seattle +7

MTi’s Newsletter Side Play
4-Star Arizona +2.5 over Carolina
MTi’s FORECAST: Arizona 17 CAROLINA 13

MTi’s Newsletter Total
4-Star Baltimore at Miami OVER 43
MTi’s FORECAST: Baltimore 27 MIAMI 24

SBB’s Newsletter Side
4-STAR New Orleans over CHICAGO
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: New Orleans by 14

SBB’s Sunday Night Total
4-STAR Houston and San Francisco Over
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: 52 points