10-6-13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

STATFOX PLATINUM SHEET

STATFOX SITUATIONAL TEAM POWER TRENDS
• NEW ORLEANS is 9-0 ATS (+9 Units) in home games vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards per game over the last three seasons.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 38.0, OPPONENT 17.6.
PLAY ON NEW ORLEANS
Rating = 4*

• SEATTLE is 15-2 ATS (+12.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days of rest over the
last two seasons.
The average score was SEATTLE 28.6, OPPONENT 14.4.
PLAY ON SEATTLE
Rating = 4*

• SAN FRANCISCO is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units)
against teams who force 0.75 or less turnovers per game on the season since 1992.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 20.3,OPPONENT 24.9.
PLAY ON HOUSTON
Rating = 3*

STATFOX SUPER SITUATIONS

• Play Against - Favorites (ST. LOUIS) - in a game involving two poor rushing teams - both outrushed by opponents by 40+ YPG, after gaining 75 or less rushing yards in last game.
• The situation’s record is 40-11 since 1983 (78.4%, +27.9 units).
Rating = 4*

• Play Against - Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ARIZONA, N.Y. GIANTS) - slow
starting team - outscored by 5+ PPG in the first half, after scoring 14 points or less in last game.
• The situation’s record is 30-7 over the last 5 seasons (81.1%, +22.3 units).
Rating = 3*

• Play Against - Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (GREEN BAY) - after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers vs. opponent after 2 straight games with turnover margin of +1 or better.
• The situation’s record is 89-43
since 1983 (67.4%, +41.7 units).
Rating = 3*

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sunday's NFL Week 5 Betting Cheat Sheet Early Action

New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals (-1, 45)

New England has not won its first five games since running the table in its 16-0 season of 2007, but it will have to overcome a major injury. Pro Bowl nose tackle Vince Wilfork was lost for the season with a torn right Achilles' tendon.

Cincinnati managed only 266 total yards in the loss to Cleveland but will likely make a concerted effort to get the ground game going to exploit the absence of the massive Wilford in the middle. Former Patriot BenJarvus Green-Ellis is averaging a paltry 2.7 yards per carry and could be supplanted soon by rookie Giovani Bernard, who averages 4.6 yards a pop and has 10 catches the past two weeks.

LINE: Opened pick and moved to Bengals -1. Total steady at 45.

WEATHER: Low 70s, 77% chance of thunder showers, winds SW 8 mph.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: New England (-6.0) - Cincinnati (-1.5) + home field (-3.0) = Patriots -1.5

TRENDS:
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Patriots are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 road games.
* Under is 10-3 in Bengals last 13 games overall.

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-7.5, 53.5)

The Lions have scored 122 points, putting them third in the league behind Denver (179) and Chicago (127). Detroit QB Matthew Stafford and WR Calvin Johnson both set career highs at Green Bay on Jan. 1, 2012. Stafford passed for 520 yards while Johnson had 244 yards receiving.

Green Bay, which is coming off its bye week, has won 22 consecutive home meetings with Detroit and 14 of the last 15 overall matchups. The Lions have not been victorious in Green Bay since Dec. 15, 1991. Aaron Rodgers is undefeated against Detroit in eight career starts with a minimum of 15 passing attempts, going 169-of-246 for 2,239 yards and 18 touchdowns with only four interceptions.

LINE: Opened Packers -7.5. Total moved 52 to 53.5.

WEATHER: Mid 50s, 21% chance of rain, winds WSW 8 mph.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Detroit (-1.0) - Green Bay (-5.0) + home field (-3.0) = Packers -7

TRENDS:
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Favorite is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 meetings.
* Lions are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 meetings in Green Bay.

Seattle Seahawks at Indianapolis Colts (+1, 43.5)

Seattle leads the NFC with a plus-seven turnover differential and has notched multiple interceptions in three consecutive games. The Seahawks hope to have defensive end Michael Bennett (2.5 sacks) available after he was removed from the field via stretcher with a back injury against Houston.

Veteran sack master Robert Mathis is wreaking havoc after a three-sack outing against the Jaguars and is tied for the NFL lead with 7.5. Indianapolis has a plus-six margin in takeaways and is allowing 12.8 points per game, fourth-best in the NFL.

LINE: Opening Seattle -2.5 and moved to -1. Total moved 43 to 43.5.

WEATHER: N/A

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Seattle (-8.0) - Indianapolis (-2.5) + home field (-3.0) = Seahawks -2.5

TRENDS:
* Seahawks are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games.
* Colts are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games.
* Under is 22-8 in Colts last 30 games overall.

Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins (-2.5, 43.5)

Pro Bowler Ray Rice has been held in check this season, rushing for just 89 yards on 30 carries. While Rice's numbers have dipped, wideout Torrey Smith continues to benefit from the departure of Anquan Boldin to San Francisco by amassing a career-high 166 yards and a touchdown in last week's loss to the Bills.

While Ravens QB Joe Flacco has been sacked 12 times, that number pales in comparison to the league-high 18 that Miami QB Ryan Tannehill has endured. While coach Joe Philbin dismisses the premise of a disconnect between Tannehill and offseason addition Mike Wallace, there is no denying that the two have struggled to get on the same page. The electric and outspoken wideout has just 15 receptions for 176 yards this season

LINE: Opening Miami -3.5 and moved to -2.5. Total moved 42.5 to 43.5.

WEATHER: Mid 80s, 30% chance of thunder showers, winds SSE 11 mph.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Baltimore (-0.5) - Miami (0.0) + home field (-3.0) = Dolphins -2.5

TRENDS:
* Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Miami.
* Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
* Dolphins are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.

New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears (Pick, 48.5)

While the Saints' offense has been garnering the headlines, the defense quietly has been much improved under new coordinator Rob Ryan, ranking sixth in yards allowed (304.5 per game) and fifth in points (13.8). QB Drew Brees has never won in Chicago, throwing for seven TDs and six interceptions in four career games there.

Jay Cutler is coming off a four-turnover performance in a 40-32 loss at Detroit. Despite the four turnovers at Detroit, Cutler rallied the team from a 40-16 deficit to make it a one-possession game late in the contest. He has a career-high 64.2 completion percentage under new coordinator Aaron Kromer — who was the Saints' interim coach for six games last season.

LINE: Opened pick and moved to Bears +1 at some books. Total moved 47.5 to 48.5.

WEATHER: Mid 50s, 17% chance of rain, winds W 14 mph

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: New Orleans (-5.5) - Chicago (-2.0) + home field (-3.0) = Saints -0.5

TRENDS:
* Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Chicago.
* Home team is 4-0-2 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (-1, 53)

Giants QB Eli Manning is leading the league with nine interceptions through four games. Some of that is due to poor pass protection. David Diehl is scheduled to make his first start of the season at right guard. The Giants are dealing with injuries on the defensive side, with tackles Linval Joseph, Cullen Jenkins and Shaun Rogers, cornerbacks Corey Webster, Jayron Hosley and Aaron Ross all dealing with injuries.

Michael Vick started out strong for Kelly in the first two weeks with a total of eight touchdowns but slumped to a combined 27-for-57 for 449 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions in the last two weeks. The Eagles insist they are moving forward defensively and will get a chance to prove that against turnover-prone New York.

LINE: Opened New York -2.5 and moved to -1. Total moved 55 to 53.

WEATHER: Mid 70s, 19% chance of rain, winds SSE 6 mph.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Philadelphia (+2.0) - New York (+5.0) + home field (-3.0) = Pick

TRENDS:
* Eagles are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
* Under is 11-5 in the last 16 meetings in New York.
* Underdog is 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 meetings.

Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans (+2.5, 38.5)

Several factors have contributed into the Chiefs' stunning start to the season, but strong second-half performances are at the top of the list. Kansas City is outscoring opponents 34-10 after the break, and has put together clock-killing drives in the fourth quarter of each of its last three games to protect slim leads.

Titans QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has been thrust into the No. 1 role after regular starter Jake Locker suffered a hip injury in the win over the Jets and will miss several weeks. Fitzpatrick appeared in 55 games with the Buffalo Bills before being cut in March, showing that the 30-year-old is no stranger to the starting role.

LINE: Opened Chiefs -3 and moved to -2.5. Total moved 39 to 38.5.

WEATHER: Low 70s, 79% chance of rain, winds SSW 9 mph.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Kansas City (-2.5) + Tennessee (+1.0) + home field (-3.0) = Chiefs -0.5

TRENDS:
* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Titans are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall.

Jacksonville Jaguars at St. Louis Rams (-11.5, 41)

The Jaguars rank last in the NFL in scoring and 30th in scoring defense. Among the positives on the Jacksonville side this week is the return of standout wide receiver Justin Blackmon, who was suspended for the first four games of the season for violating the league's substance abuse policy.

St. Louis is the only team in the NFL with a worse rushing attack than Jacksonville, as the Rams average only 47.3 yards on the ground. With virtually no complimentary ground game against the 49ers, Sam Bradford completed only 19-of-41 passes, was sacked five times and turned the ball over twice.

LINE: Opened Rams -14 and moved to -11.5. Total moved 42 to 41.

WEATHER: N/A
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Jacksonville (+11.0) - St. Louis (+6.5) + home field (-3.0) = Rams -7.5

TRENDS:
* Jaguars are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Rams are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.
* Over is 6-1 in Rams last seven home games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

English Breakfast: Premier League betting cheat sheet

Four games on the board in the Premier League Sunday, and each could be highly entertaining football. Arsenal is coming off a massive victory in Champions League over a very good Napoli side and look to win its sixth-straight match in the League.

Norwich v Chelsea (+500, +280, -150)

Why bet Norwich: The Canaries defend well at home and it's never easy to leave Carrow Road with three points. An away win at Stoke will have the club confident, but four goals scored at this stage is borderline unacceptable. Norwich spent money in the transfer window, but have gotten little production from striker Ricky Van Wolfswinkel. He and Gary Hooper must start producing.

Key players out/doubtful: Elliott Bennett

Why bet Chelsea: Mourinho and his team must find consistency in league play. Using a big midweek victory over Steaua Bucharest as a springboard would be a great start. The Blues have managed just one goal in its previous two games at Norwich, but the quality in the team could be too much for the home side.

Key players out/doubtful: Fernando Torres, Marco van Ginkel, Tomas Kalas

2012-13 fixture result: Noriwch 0, Chelsea 1

Key betting note: Chelsea is the only club yet to concede a goal in the second half of a Premier League match this season.


Southampton v Swansea (+110, +250, +280)

Why bet Southampton: It has been a dream start to the season for Mauricio Pochettino and his club. The Saints sit seventh in the table and are on back-to-back victories with Swansea up next. The club is healthy and a goal from new attacker Pablo Osvaldo last week will have the ex-Roma striker's confidence high.

Key players out/doubtful: N/A

Why bet Swansea: The Swans poor start could be deceiving. They've lost three matches in the league, but they've come gainst Manchester United, Spurs and Arsenal. The Swans will look to ascend the table starting with this fixture down south.

Key players out/doubtful: Garry Monk

2012-13 fixture result: Southampton 1, Swansea 1

Key betting note: The Swans have won their last two away games in the league, but have never won three straight.


Tottenham v West Ham (-250, +400, +800)

Why bet Tottenham: Nobody in the league fires more shots than Spurs (19.5 per game) but the North London club has put just six in - and a pair of those were from the spot. If you watch Spurs matches, you can see the early stages of a top class club, but Spurs aren't there quite yet. Defensively, they are rock solid having conceded just two goals thus far.

Key players out/doubtful: Etienne Capoue, Younes Kaboul, Aaron Lennon

Why bet West Ham: The Hammers will be desperate for a result here and they've dropped two-straight matches and three of four. They desperately need the physical Andy Carroll (who is out) leading the line and creativity from Joe Cole on the wing - but the latter could return Sunday. That said, Sam Allardyce will have his side ready for this London derby.

Key players out/doubtful: Alou Diarra, Andy Carroll

2012-13 fixture result: Tottenham 3, West Ham 1

Key betting note: Spurs' players have made 159 touches in the opposition box this season; more often than any other team.


West Brom v Arsenal (+375, +280, -125)

Why bet West Brom: The Baggies have won back-to-back league games and added to Man United's woes with a win at Old Trafford last week. They'll use a recent 1-1 draw with the Gunners in the Capital One Cup as a confidence boost for this Premier League fixture.

Key players out/doubtful: Matej Vydra, Zoltán Gera, Ben Foster, Chris Brunt, George Thorne

Why bet Arsenal: The Gunners are playing some of the best football in Europe. Plain and simple. They dismantled a very good Napoli team in Champions League and have won five straight in the Premier League. All this without the services of some of the clubs' regular first-team players.

Key players out/doubtful: Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, Theo Walcott, Lukas Podolski, Bacary Sagna, Yaya Sanogo, Abou Diaby

2012-13 fixture result: West Brom 1, Arsenal 2

Key betting note: Arsenal have scored the first goal in each of their six Premier League games this season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Philly Godfather
Oakland + 4 1/2 100
Chicago + 1 100
NY Giants -1 100

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Fezzik

NFL EARLY BIRD BEST BET

Tennessee Titans+3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sunday's MLB NLDS betting: What bettors need to know

St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates (-153, 6.5)

Series tied 1-1.

The Pittsburgh Pirates wrested home-field advantage from the St. Louis Cardinals and will look to get a leg up in the National League Division series when they host Game 3 of the best-of-five series Sunday afternoon. The Pirates earned a split in St. Louis and have the luxury of turning to ace Francisco Liriano, who won all three starts against the Cardinals this season in dominant fashion. Liriano also has not lost at home since June 1.

St. Louis followed up a crisp 9-1 victory in Game 1 with a ragged performance in Friday's 7-1 defeat, prompting center fielder Jon Jay to call Sunday's game a "must-win." The Cardinals have not fared well in Pittsburgh this season, losing seven of 10 while batting .227 with zero home runs. Third baseman David Freese dismissed any past history, saying, “People talk about momentum. It all starts over the following day.”

TV: 4:37 p.m. ET, TBS

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-80s with mostly cloudy skies. Wind will blow across the field at 8 mph.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Cardinals RH Joe Kelly (10-5, 2.69 ERA) vs. Pirates LH Francisco Liriano (16-8, 3.02)

Kelly was inserted into the rotation in early July and won his first eight decisions en route to going 10-2 as a starter. Although he went 2-2 in his last four starts of the season, Kelly beat the Pirates three times in the last two months, allowing a total of two runs over 18 innings. He was 5-1 with a 1.08 in seven road starts, including two victories at Pittsburgh.

Liriano was nearly unbeatable at PNC Park, logging an 8-1 record and 1.47 ERA in 11 home starts - and the loss was a 2-0 defeat in which he struck out 11. He was overpowering in his three turns against the Cardinals, giving up only two runs and 10 hits in 24 innings for a microscopic 0.75 ERA. Liriano also beat Cincinnati in the wild card round with seven innings of one-run, four-hit ball.

TRENDS:

* Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.
* Cardinals are 5-1 in the last six meetings.
* Cardinals are 9-2 in Kelly's last 11 starts.
* Pirates are 13-6 in Liriano's last 19 starts.

WALK-OFFS:

1. Pirates C Russell Martin is 3-for-4 with a homer against Kelly.

2. Cardinals LF Matt Holliday is 3-for-8 this season against Liriano, who held St. Louis to a .127 batting average.

3. Pirates 3B Pedro Alvarez became the first player in franchise history to homer in the first two games of a postseason series.


Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers (-145, 6.5)

Series tied 1-1.

Los Angeles shortstop Hanley Ramirez seeks a little help from his teammates when the Dodgers host the Atlanta Braves in Sunday’s Game 3 of the National League Division Series. Ramirez homered, doubled twice and drove in all three runs in a Game 2 loss that saw Atlanta even up the series at a game apiece. The Braves had just six hits but turned three double plays in Friday’s 4-3 victory.

Ramirez enjoyed a strong second half and has continued his hot hitting into the postseason. “We’ve got to do a better job with guys in scoring position because everything counts in the playoffs,” Ramirez said after the Game 2 loss. “Every play, every pitch. It just wasn’t our night but we know we can bounce back.” Braves outfielder Jason Heyward had a key two-run single in Friday’s game. “Every night in the postseason is a must-win game for us,” Heyward said. “You don’t want to ever think it’s OK to lose.”

TV: 6:07 p.m. ET, TBS

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-80s with wind blowing out to right field at 7 mph.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Braves RH Julio Teheran (14-8, 3.20 ERA) vs. Dodgers LH Hyun-Jin Ryu (14-8, 3.00)

Teheran didn’t face the Dodgers in the regular season and is making his first career postseason start. He had a 4.44 ERA in September despite going 3-1 and allowed four runs in two of his last three starts. Teheran went 6-4 with a 3.38 ERA in 14 road starts.

Ryu had a 1-3 record in September while pitching well with a 2.88 ERA. He started twice against the Braves this season, receiving no-decisions both times and sporting a 2.13 ERA in 12 2/3 innings. Ryu went 7-4 with a 2.32 ERA in 15 home outings.

TRENDS:

* Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Los Angeles.
* Under is 5-0-2 in John Hirschbeck's last seven games behind home plate vs. Atlanta.
* Braves are 5-1 in Teheran's last six road starts.
* Dodgers are 1-4 in Ryu's last five starts as a favorite.

WALK-OFFS:

1. Ramirez is 4-for-9 in the series and all the hits have been for extra bases.

2. Braves OF B.J. Upton has been demoted to a bench role and has struck out in both at-bats over the first two games.

3. Dodgers RHP Brian Wilson tossed a scoreless inning in each game and hasn’t allowed a run in his last 11 appearances.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Lions at Packers: What bettors need to know

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-7, 53.5)

The well-rested Green Bay Packers attempt to continue their dominance of the Detroit Lions when the NFC North rivals meet at Lambeau Field on Sunday. Green Bay, which is coming off its bye week, has won 22 consecutive home meetings with Detroit and 14 of the last 15 overall matchups. The Lions have not been victorious in Green Bay since Dec. 15, 1991.

The Packers have had 100-yard rushers in back-to-back games after going 44 straight regular-season contests without one, but they are just 1-1 in those games after suffering a 34-30 loss at Cincinnati in Week 3. Detroit handed Chicago its first loss of the season last Sunday, posting a 40-32 home victory to pull into a tie atop the division with the Bears. The Lions have scored 122 points, putting them third in the league behind Denver (179) and Chicago (127).

TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE: The Packers opened -7. The total opened at 52 and is up to 53.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with a 17 percent chance of rain.

ABOUT THE LIONS (3-1): After watching his team end a 21-game road losing streak against Washington in Week 3, Detroit coach Jim Schwartz looks to do the same in Green Bay on Sunday. "Close doesn't count. We're not trying to play close games, even though we have," he said. Each of the Lions' last three losses to the Packers have been by seven or fewer points. With receivers Nate Burleson (forearm) and Patrick Edwards (ankle) battling injuries, Detroit signed Kevin Ogletree on Wednesday - one day after he was released by Tampa Bay.

ABOUT THE PACKERS (1-2): James Starks and rookie Johnathan Franklin each reached the century mark in rushing yards for Green Bay this season, but the former won't get the chance to repeat the feat as he is expected to miss several weeks with a sprained knee suffered in the loss to Cincinnati. The Packers' backfield receives a boost this week, however, as rookie Eddie Lacy returns from a concussion. Safety Morgan Burnett could also be back from his hamstring injury, but linebacker Clay Matthews is questionable with a similar ailment.

TRENDS:

* Lions are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 meetings in Green Bay.
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Favorite is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 meetings.
* Packers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a bye week.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Aaron Rodgers is undefeated against Detroit in eight career starts with a minimum of 15 passing attempts, going 169-of-246 for 2,239 yards and 18 touchdowns with only four interceptions.

2. The Lions' lone win in their last 15 meetings with the Packers was a 7-3 home triumph on Dec. 12, 2010.

3. Detroit QB Matthew Stafford and WR Calvin Johnson both set career highs at Green Bay on Jan. 1, 2012. Stafford passed for 520 yards while Johnson had 244 yards receiving.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DAVE PRICE

NFL Oct 06 '13
1:00p New England Patriots vs Cincinnati Bengals
Take: Cincinnati Bengals 0-115
7* AFC Game of the Year on Bengals pk

NFL Oct 06 '13
1:00p New Orleans Saints vs Chicago Bears
Take: Chicago Bears +1-105
6* NFC Game of the Week on Bears +1

NFL Oct 06 '13
11:30p San Diego Chargers vs Oakland Raiders
Take: Oakland Raiders +5-110
6* NFL Sunday Night Bailout on Raiders +5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ROBERT FERRINGO

SUNDAY NFL SELECTIONS

2-Unit Play. Take #420 Cincinnati (Pk) over New England (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 6)
I'm not really in a rush to bet against Tom Brady. And I like this play a lot more than this rating suggests. There is no way the Patriots should've won last week down in Atlanta. And I just don't think they have the goods to go out and get two straight road wins. They beat the Falcons because Atlanta choked at key times, made some horrible game management decisions, and because their defense stinks. Well, the Bengals are going to be fired up for this game. They will have a chip on their shoulder and want a piece of the Patriots. And their defense decidedly doesn't stink. The Bengals are active and athletic, and they are really probably the best defense - and maybe the best team - that the Patriots have faced yet this year. This is kind of an "Up-Down" Theory play. Where the Bengals are set to bounce back up after a weird loss at Cleveland and the Patriots are due to slide back down after an undeserved win at Atlanta. Again, I don't trust the Bengals to beat good teams. And I shudder thinking about the Dalton-Brady quarterback matchup. But there is just too much working in Cincinnati's favor in this one and I really expect them to treat this game like their Super Bowl. They are at home, they have more talent, and they are more motivated. We'll see if they can get it done.

2-Unit Play. Take #426 Chicago (Pk) over New Orleans (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 6)
This is another quintessential Up-Down Theory game. The Bears lost an ugly game at Detroit last week because Jay Cutler went turnover crazy. He had been playing well, but that game just got away from him. However, the Bears really weren't that badly outplayed by the Lions. Detroit scored two TDs in one minute and they scored three in a six-minute span in the second quarter. But other than that the Bears moved the ball and were very close to forcing several other key turnovers. This is a good team and I think they will get a boost from playing at home. New Orleans is coming off a Monday Night Football thrashing of the Dolphins. But like I was always taught: win on Monday, lose on Sunday. And the Saints could be in a letdown spot here. They are going off-surface and facing the best opponent they have tangled with this year. The public made a killing on that MNF game. They are going to pile right back onto the Saints, and over 80 percent of the action is going there way. But I think that the Bears can rise to the occasion and grit their way to a win.

2-Unit Play. Take #433 Denver (-7) over Dallas (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 6)
Until someone proves that they can stay within two touchdowns of the Broncos they are an automatic play. Since NFL rules have all but outlawed defense, Peyton Manning can have a field day with his offense. Dallas doesn't have the secondary to shut the Broncos down and Manning will floss his teeth with the Cover-2 defense that the Cowboys are still learning to play. The Dallas offense needs Miles Austin. They get too one-dimensional without him in the lineup. Dallas got lit up by Philip Rivers last week and couldn't keep up in that shootout. I see the same thing here. The Cowobys have some talent to play close for a half. But I don't think that they are good enough to go out and win this game outright. I will take the team that I think will win to cover the number and, as I mentioned, until I see something different the Broncos are the pick.

1-Unit Play. Take #427 Philadelphia (+2.5) over N.Y. Giants (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 6)

1-Unit Play. Take #413 Kansas City (-3) over Tennessee (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 6)

1-Unit Play. Take #421 Seattle (-3) over Indianapolis (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 6)

1-Unit Play. Take #424 Green Bay (-7) over Detroit (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 6)

2-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #433 Denver (-0.5) over Dallas (4 p.m.) AND Take #438 Atlanta (-3) over N.Y. Jets (8:40 p.m.)

This Week's Totals:
OK, so we are getting deeper into the season. That means that my totals systems are really starting to open up. I don't fully trust them because I need a couple more games' worth of stats for them to really take root. But I am dipping in and I really like all of these situations this week. But if I have posted too many games for you this week, simply cut the sides and totals rated less than 2.0 and play from there. We're going to win money regardless.

1-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 39.5 - Kansas City at Tennessee (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 6)

1-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 44.0 - Baltimore at Miami (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 6)

1-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 41.0 - Jacksonville at St. Louis (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 6)

1-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 43.5 - Seattle at Indianapolis (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 6)

1-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 48.5 - New Orleans at Chicago (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 6)

1-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 42.0 - Carolina at Arizona (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 6)

1-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 56.0 - Denver at Dallas (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 6)

1-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 42.5 - Houston at San Francisco (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 6)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DOC SPORTS

4 Unit Play. #125/#413 Take Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 over Tennessee Titans (Sunday 1 pm CBS) This game took on a different tone when QB Jake Locker was knocked out by a late hit last week against the Jets. Now insert Ryan Fitzpatrick, a turnover prone quarterback, and I believe this team will now struggle to move the football on offense. Something magical is happening in Kansas City at the moment, and we will ride this gravy train as we fully expect them to move to 5-0 on the season. Kansas City had talent last year, but new coach Andy Reid has put it all together. Tennessee is 2-8 ATS (1 push) in their last 11 games against teams with a winning record.

4 Unit Play. #116/#424 Take Green Bay Packers -7 over Detroit Lions (Sunday 1 pm FOX) All the recent signs may be leaning toward a competitive game because Detroit is playing well of late, but that fact remains that Detroit just cannot win a game in Green Bay. In fact, the Lions have not won a game in Green Bay since 1991 and the Packers need this win in order to remain in the NFC North race. Green Bay is coming off of a bye, and that is usually a good thing as they have gone 7-0 ATS in the last 7 years in their next game following their bye. Detroit is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. Green Bay is 24-9 ATS in their last 33 games against NFC North teams.

4 Unit Play. #112/428 Take New York Giants -1.5 over Philadelphia Eagles (Sunday 1 pm FOX) The Giants?? Yes, we feel there is good value since Philadelphia has only played one good half of football this season. The Giants have an outstanding coach / quarterback combination, and this team will not start 0-5 on the season. Philadelphia is really exposing their defense by keeping them on the field way too much. Not much good can be said about the Giants, but they are playing at home. Philadelphia is 5-15 ATS (1 push) in their last 21 games. New York is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games played during Week 5 of the NFL season. We will ride both of these stats to the Giants first victory of the season.

5 Unit Play. #129/#433 Take Denver Broncos -7 over Dallas Cowboys (Sunday 4:25 pm CBS)
Top NFL Play of the Weekend.
The Broncos are a scoring machine at the moment, and we take them this week with a number we feel is short. Dallas is coming off a bad beat against San Diego in a game that they led by 11 points only to lose the game by nine points. Now they face the best team in the league in the Denver Broncos. Dallas still is in great shape to win the NFC East, and they do not really need to dig deep to win this game. Denver is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games. Dallas is 3-10 ATS in their last 13 home games. We cannot worry about the big number on the road and will just play the better team.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ALLEN EASTMAN

4-Unit Play. Take #425 New Orleans (+1) over Chicago (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 6)
This play is from my NFL 411 System.
The Saints won again on Monday night and are undefeated at 4-0. They are on the road in this game and I think that the wrong team has been favored. The Bears could be 0-4 right now. They had to come back against the Bengals, Vikings and even Pittsburgh. Chicago was blown out in Detroit last week. They are not as good as their 3-1 record looks. The Saints have been great with Sean Payton back leading the team. This team is motivated and they are much better than last year. The Saints defense has been one of the best in football. I think that they will put the pressure on Chicago and force Jay Cutler into even more turnovers this week. The Saints offense looks like it is hitting its stride and New Orleans is going to win this game easily. Not having to lay out any points is the bonus. The Bears are just 1-6 ATS against the NFC and just 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games overall. The Saints are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games.

5-Unit Play. Take #419 New England (+1) over Cincinnati (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 6)
This play is from my NFL 411 System.
The Patriots are not dressed up as underdogs very often. But they are 32-12 ATS as underdogs with Tom Brady as quarterback. The Bengals have gone just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games against a team that is over .500. The Patriots just won at Atlanta on Sunday night. Now they have a chance to get another big road game. And I think that they will do just that. The Patriots offense looked much stronger last week and each week Brady is getting more in tune with his young receivers. The Bengals are coming off a loss to Cleveland last week. And they needed a big comeback to beat Green Bay the week before. This team is not playing well and is overrated. The Bengals are just 8-20-1 ATS in October. New England is 15-7 ATS in its last 22 road games.

2-Unit Play. Take #422 Indianapolis (+2.5) over Seattle (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 6)
I am going with the home underdog here. Seattle did not play well on the road at Houston last week. They did not play well on the road at Carolina in Week 1. This Seahawks team is not as strong when they play away from their big home field advantage. This Colts team already went on the road and beat the 49ers. I think they will beat Seattle and defend their home field in this one. The Colts were 4-0 SU and ATS last year as a home underdog. The public is still selling them short again this year. Andrew Luck will get the job done in this one and I think that he will outplay Russell Wilson. Ive me the points and the home field advantage.

2-Unit Play. Take #423 Detroit (+7) over Green Bay (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 6)
I am going with the underdog in this one. This Detroit team looks like it is for real in the NFC North. This team won 10 games and went to the playoffs two years ago. They won a big game against the Bears at home last week. Now they have a chance to get a sweep against their top NFC North rivals by winning at Green Bay this week. The Packers are coming off a bye week. But I do not think that they have fixed their defense. The last six games in this series have been very close. Only one of those games was a blowout by more than 10 points. I think that this will be another tight contest and I will take the points. I think the Lions can win this game outright. I think that whoever wins takes it by a field goal late in the game.

4-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 43.0 - Jacksonville at St. Louis (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 6)
The Jaguars have the worst offense in the league. They have gone 'under' in three of their four regular season games and are averaging just under eight points per game. The Rams offense has scored just nine points per game in their last two outings. The Rams are not a high scoring team. They should control this game but I don't see either team scoring many points. There are not many good receivers or running backs on the field that can make big plays. The 'under' is 5-0 for Jacksonville after a double-digit home loss. And the 'under' is 6-2 in Jacksonville's last eight after losing by two touchdown or more and 6-2 after any loss. I think both teams are going to continue to struggled to put points on the board. Take the 'under'.

3-Unit Play. Take #429 Carolina (-2) over Arizona (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 6)
The Panthers are coming off a bye week. I think that they are going to play well on the road here. The Panthers defense is playing very well this year. I think that they will give the Cardinals fits. Arizona just traded away its left tackle Levi Brown. This hurts the offensive line. It also makes it look like the Cardinals are already giving up on this season and planning for the future. This Arizona team is struggling on offense. They were lucky to win last week in Tampa Bay and needed some turnovers to come back from down 10-0 late in the fourth quarter. The road team is 5-2 ATS in the last eight meetings and the Cardinals are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games. I think that this team is favored for a reason and they will show it on Sunday with an easy winner here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

VEGAS SPORTS INFORMER

NFL FOOTBALL PLAYS

5 Unit Play. #424 Take Green Bay -7 over Detroit (1:00p.m., Sunday, Oct 6)
(Game of the Week)
The very well rested 1-2 Packers get the play a team they have dominated in the past and boy do the Packers need this home W. The Packers can't afford to take this home loss and go 1-3 and I see the Green Bay Packers winning this game big and ugly. The Packers defense will need to focus on Reggie Bush and luckily the extra week to prepare for this game the Packers defense is getting healthy. I also see Aaron Rodgers having a big game threw the air on a Lions secondary that is pretty weak. Rodgers will be able to pick apart this Lions secondary and if Green Bay can get any kind of rushing attack this game will be a double-digit Green Bay blowout. I saw these two trends and after reading these I knew the Packers were my top play for Sunday. The trends were: Packers have won 21 of their last 22 regular season games at Lambeau Field and the Packers have covered 7 of the last 9 games when laying 5 or more points at home. Detroit is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more then 30 points in their last game.

2 Unit Play. #433 Take Over 56 - Denver at Dallas (4:25p.m., Sunday, Oct 6)
Why not! The Broncos offense can score at will when hot and right now Peyton Manning and the Denver offense is red hot. Denver has scored a record 179 points in 4 games and if the Cowboys secondary can't slow down the wide receivers of Denver this game will go over. I see Dallas at least putting up 20 points or more and again the Broncos offense will score on the Boys defense. Denver is 9-3 O/U in is last 12 road games and the Cowboys are 5-1 O/U in their last 6 home games.

3 Unit Play. #435 Take Over 42 - Houston at San Francisco (8:30p.m., Sunday, Oct 6 NBC)
The Texans offense in Weeks 1 & 2 scored 61 points and Matt Schaub wasn't the black cat. Now the Texans offense has gone south and boy do the Texans need a good showing from their QB. The 49ers had a great game last week against the Rams and if Frank Gore has another great game on the ground the 49ers will score points. The 49ers 2 wins this season they are averaging 34.5ppg and in their 2 losses they scored only 10 points. I see Colin Kaepernick having another quite but deadly game and both QB's will have big games. Houston is 4-1 O/U in their last 5 games and the 49ers are 7-1 O/U in their last 8 home games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JASON SHARPE

4 Unit Play Take #420 Cincinnati -1 over New England (1:00pm est):
I have spoke in the past about ebb and flow in the NFL and how it's a smart idea to try and figure that out with certain teams. I think we have a nice example of that here with the New England Patriots. The Patriots deserve a lot of credit for winning a big Sunday night game in Atlanta last week that no one gave them a chance to win. Now there being asked to go back out on the road and pull out another victory here against what should be an angry Cincinnati Bengals team off a loss. The Patriots will also be without their defensive leader in Vince Wilfork who was lost for the remainder of the season due to an injury. That loss can't be overstated as many feel Wilfork is the key to what this team likes to do on defense and that everything revolves around the big man. Add in all of the other injured Patriot players and it's hard to expect much of anything from this team here in this game.

The Bengals should be excited for a shot at Tom Brady and the ever popular Patriots in this one here at home. Cincinnati is the kind of play one should always be looking to make in the NFL, the previously beaten favorite from the week before off a straight-up loss and now a home underdog or favorite of below three points the following week. The Bengals are 5-1 against the number dating back to last season at home and are 9-3-1 overall ATS their last 13 games as they remain an undervalued team again this year.

Take Cincinnati here.

3 Unit Play Take #426 Chicago +1 over New Orleans (1:00pm est):
It's a good time to look and betting against an overvalued New Orleans Saints team here. Sure the Saints have been much better to start their season but keep in mind they have also been one of just a few teams who have got to play three of their first games at home thus far. This is a tremendous edge for any team but it's especially big for a team who plays as well at home as these Saints do. Put them on the road and you see a much different, slower football team. This is a team built to play indoors. Look no further than their game in Tampa Bay earlier this season where they needed a last second field goal to beat a bad Bucs team in that one. They are coming off an emotionally charged Monday night win this past week and are faced with the short work week as well in this one.

The Bears were one of the surprise teams of the NFL going into last weekend at 3-0 on the year. They ran into a divisional rival with revenge on the road and that was a recipe for disaster. Add in four turnovers and the Bears just didn't have enough to beat an improved Lions team. I think it's safe to say that nothing these two teams have done so far this season has been unexpected before the season and in fact it's the Bears winning in Pittsburgh that may be the only game these two teams have played thus far that's went different than most expected. With that said the Bears are actually probably the bigger surprise team of these two squads right now.
Take Chicago in this one.

3 Unit Play Take #432 Oakland +4 over San Diego (11:35pm est):
Oakland fans should be excited for this Sunday night home game against their divisional rivals. It's always a smart idea to look to back a home underdog inside division play like we have here in this one. The Raiders ran into a determined 0-3 Washington team in desperate need of a win last weekend and they did so with a backup quarterback at the controls as well. The Raiders battled in that game but they just don't have enough firepower without their starting quarterback Terrelle Pryor running the show. The good news here is that Pryor is expected back in action and with him the Raiders look like a team who can move the football.

San Diego is also seeing some decent offensive play to begin their season but on defense that's a different story as the Chargers have allowed almost 7.0 yards per play thus far. San Diego comes in off a nice win last week as a home dog but now their being thrust into the role of the road favorite here just a week later and a bigger than normal one as well. They have failed to cover the following game after a win their last six times.

Oakland is a totally different team with Pryor on the field. Look for the Raiders and their fans to be ready to play this primetime game. Take Oakland and the points.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

STRIKE POINT SPORTS

NFL Plays:

6-Unit Play. Take #424 Green Bay (-7) over Detroit (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 6)
Note: This is our NFL Game of the Week
This game is going to be extremely similar to the Saints/Dolphins game last Monday night. Both teams are solid teams and actually both "can" win this game, but Sunday will be all Packers. This game could actually be tight throughout the first half, but once the second half kick soars through the air it will be all Green Bay. The Packers have the Lions number in Lambeau Field as they are 11-4-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings in Green Bay, and 4-0 ATS in the last four games overall with Detroit. The Packers spent their bye week getting healthy as they will welcome back Eddie Lacy from his concussion and he should be able to help the Pack control the offensive line with his hard running. Green Bay has been extremely successful coming off their bye week as they are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following the bye. After their 10-14 point victory this Sunday you can make it 9-1 ATS in their last 10. The Packers also lost their last game prior to the bye week and Green Bay is a cash cow coming off a loss. The Packers are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games following a S.U. loss.

If this isn't enough for you, check out these trends:
-Detroit is 1-4 ATS in their last five road games
-Green Bay is 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games versus a team with a winning record
-Green Bay is 24-9 ATS in their last 33 games versus the NFC North
-The favorite is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings between the two teams.

Take the home favorite in this one as the Packers win this game 34-20.

5-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 42.5 - Houston at San Francisco (8:30 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 6)
Both of these teams have proven they can score versus tough defenses. The Texans offense sets up well to play versus any type of defense as they can run the ball, and they have a dynamic TE, and WR core. This is oddly similar to San Francisco as they can boast of the same three characteristics. The 'over' is 7-1 in the last eight San Francisco home games and 4-1 in the last five Texans games overall. The Texans have scored 31, 30, 9, and 20 points in their four games thus far this season, but if you watched the Ravens game, in which they only scored 9 points, you would know that they had numerous opportunities to put a much larger number on the board. Don't let the defenses scare you in this one as both teams will be able to move the ball on the ground and through the air. The weather also looks great for this contest, so we have nothing holding this game back.

I see a final score in the 50s here, as this game has a 27-24 or 31-27 type feel to it.

4-Unit Play. Take #433 Denver (-7.5) over Dallas (4:30 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 6)
Trap game? Nope, Vegas just knows that they can't have Denver laying double figures in Dallas, even though they should be. No one in the league has proven that they can stay close to this Broncos team and with the inconsistent play of the Cowboys, this Sunday will prove no differently. Dallas is going to play a lot of their cover 2 defense and Peyton Manning is going to destroy it. Not only will the Cowboys struggle to put pressure on Peyton but they will struggle to stop all of their weapons. Look for Julius Thomas to have a big game this Sunday as he takes advantage of open seams in the Dallas D. Denver is 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games and 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games overall. Dallas is just 3-10 ATS in their last 13 home games and 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings with the Broncos. Lay the points here as the Broncos roll 38-20.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chad Matthews

2-Unit play. #413 Kansas City Chiefs -3 over the Tennessee Titans
(Oct 6 @ 1pm ET)
This Sunday the Chiefs and Titans square off at LP Field in Nashville. The Chiefs are 3-1 against the spread this season as they head into Tennessee to play a Titans team that has proved to be unbeatable so far this season at home. The Titans have taken wins from the Steelers, Jets and Chargers and its only loss coming against the Texans. With the Chargers being the only quality win this year for the Titans the Chiefs come into Tennessee a completely different animal. The Chiefs are ranked 2nd in pass defense this year so for the Titans to accomplish anything against this Chiefs defensive line it's going to have to come using the ground game. It was announced earlier in the week that the Titans will play this weekend without their starting quarterback Jake Locker and former Buffalo Bills veteran quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick will get the start instead. Fitzpatrick is not a bad back up quarterback however after what Alex Smith accomplished last year with the 49ers and thus far this year with the Chiefs I am going to have to lay a small 2 unit play here on the Chiefs -3 as I see them setting the bar late and coming out on top in the end.

4-Unit play. #423 Take OVER 53.5 points in Detroit Lions VS Green Bay Packers
(Oct 6 @ 1pm ET)
On Sunday the Detroit Lions square up against Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. The Packers who have scored 34 points or more in every game played this season and the Lions are averaging 30.5 points per game themselves as a season average through 4 weeks. The Lions are ranked 5th overall in passing yards averaging 309 passing yards per game and the Packers are ranked 3rd in the league averaging 327 passing yards per game. Now looking at the passing defensive side of things you have a Packers passing defense ranked 28th in the league giving up an average of 311 yards per game in the air, the Lions rank 21st giving up an average of 268 passing yards per game. All the signals point towards an aerial shoot out. Expect Rodgers and Stafford to air out the ball most of this game and stack up the points in a hurry. Take the OVER 53.5 points here

3-Unit Play. #419 Take OVER 44.5 points in New England Patriots VS Cincinnati Bengals
(Oct 6 @ 1pm ET)
Quarterback Tom Brady and the undefeated New England Patriots head to Cincinnati to host the Bengals in what should be an offensive show down. The Bengals averaged a total of 25 points per game the first three weeks of the season until last weekend when they only managed to put up 6 points on the road against the Cleveland Browns. I believe last week's offensive no-show for the Bengals was a fluke and the Bengals are an offensive threat especially on their home turf. Then we have a Patriots team that as we all know after all the years with Brady under center has no troubles putting up points on the board. The Patriots are giving up an average of 346 yards per game and now have to play without their top defensive linemen Vince Wilfork as he suffered a season ending torn Achilles tendon in last week's game against the Atlanta Falcons. If the Bengals offense shows up which is likely at home then expect this to be an offensive battle. Take the OVER 44.5 points here and expect a mid to late 4th quarter over!