10-13-13

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NFL Week 6 Opening Line Report Will Broncos let up vs. Jags?
by Jason Logan

The mainstream media loves games like Jacksonville at Denver.

While most sports reporters shy away from the sinful spreads in their columns, this massive 28-point line has everyone talking about Week 6’s first-versus-worst matchup.

The spread has been up since last week, when the LVH Superbook in Las Vegas opened its lookahead lines. And Week 5’s results – Denver win in Dallas, Jacksonville loss in St. Louis – have done little to change the odds.

“I equate this spread to this past weekend’s Georgia State-Alabama spread (56.5),” Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada based odds service The Sports Club. “If Denver gets up big in the first half, I don’t expect them to keep it up. There’s no incentive for it. They will pull their starters and get some rest. The line is deserved but if you’re a handicapper, you have to know that Denver won’t risk getting anyone injured.”

The Broncos also have an important conference game against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 7 – Peyton Manning’s former team. We looked at the biggest NFL spreads of the past 28 seasons last week, and favorites of more than 20 points - -20.5 to -24 - are a 0-7 ATS since 1985.

According to Bruce Marshall, editor of the famous Gold Sheet, the Broncos-Jags spread ties the highest line in NFL history – the expansion Atlanta Falcons hosting the Baltimore Colts (-28) in 1966. The Falcons covered, losing 19-7 in Week 10.

New York Giants at Chicago Bears (-9.5, 45.5)

Some books opened this spread as low as Chicago -7.5 but it seems like the betting market is finally starting to believe in the Giants’ 0-5 start.

“I don’t understand why they’re betting on New York. Up until Sunday, people were still hammering the Giants every week, thinking that they were due,” says Korner, who sent out a suggested line of Bears -10. “It was a mistake for any book to open this around a touchdown. Let the money take it down. The Giants have been big winners for books this season. And you never leave a hot machine at the casino.”

Green Bay Packers at Baltimore Ravens (+3, 48)

The defending Super Bowl champs are 3-point home underdogs against the Packers in Week 6. Korner says this line could go up to as high as Green Bay -4 before kickoff, but isn’t sold on the Cheese Heads being that big.

“Baltimore showed some life this weekend and is coming back around,” he says. “Green Bay wasn’t really that impressive beating a Detroit team missing its best player (WR Calvin Johnson). People have short-term memories when it comes to betting, so it would be no surprise to see this move up to 3.5 or -4.”

New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots (-1, 49.5)

Korner says he brought New Orleans as a slight road favorite to the table, but released a suggested spread of Patriots -2.5, hesitant to make New England a home underdog. But it wouldn’t surprise him to see the Saints close as the chalk.

“The Saints have that fearsome offense. And the Patriots do not,” Korner says. “If this line runs, it runs to New Orleans. It won’t go toward New England. There is nowhere to go but to New Orleans

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Football lines that make you go hmmm...
by Jason Logan

For the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Week 6 represents a reboot of the 2013 schedule.

The Bucs have already put Florida faithful through a season’s worth of drama, getting out to a sluggish 0-4 start (1-3 ATS), airing public infighting between star players and the coaching staff, and going through a painful breakup with their No. 1 QB, leaving the offense in the hands of a rookie.

After a bye in Week 5, Tampa Bay is ready for a fresh start. To quote Will Ferrell in The Other Guys, maybe the Bucs should be called the “Febreeze Brothers, because it’s feelin’ so fresh right now”.

But not even a Costco-sized tub of deodorizer could mask the rotten stench in Tampa. However, oddsmakers seem to think the Bucs could come off the bye smelling like roses. They’ve set the line at a pick for Week 6’s battle between Tampa Bay and the Philadelphia Eagles.

The Eagles’ new up-tempo offense got back on track against the winless Giants in Week 5 and now takes on another 0-fer team in Tampa Bay. Philadelphia turned to Nick Foles at QB when Michael Vick went down last Sunday, and didn’t miss a beat. In fact, the Eagles become a much steadier team with Foles in the pocket instead of the risk/reward that Vick brings to the line of scrimmage.

At least Foles is a more reliable option with much better weapons than a rookie QB being thrown to the wolves.

NFL

Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets (-1, 40.5)

Another winless team off a bye week getting love from books are the Pittsburgh Steelers, who visit the New York Jets Sunday afternoon.

The last time we saw the Steelers they were getting their knickers pulled down in front of a British audience, losing 34-27 to the Minnesota Vikings in Week 4. Pittsburgh opened as a 3-point road favorite but after the Jets went into the ATL and stole a win from the Falcons Monday, the early money has moved New York to -1.

While the Jets seem ripe with letdown potential in Week 6, there is no let-up from their defense. Gang Green is second in total yards allowed and limiting opponents to just 76.2 rushing gains per game. They’re getting to the quarterback, with 16 sacks on the season, and forced a game-changing fumble from Matt Ryan Monday night.

The Steelers offense has been stuck in mud for the first chunk of schedule and, like always, is struggling to keep QB Ben Roethlisberger clean – giving up 15 sacks through four games. Pittsburgh is also dealing with injuries on the offensive line. Left guard Ramon Foster is question with a pectoral injury Sunday.

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Bills' Spread Moves Two Points with Lewis as Week 6 QB

The Buffalo Bills will hand the offense to backup QB Thad Lewis when they visit the Cincinnati Bengals Sunday.

Buffalo, which opened as a 7.5-point underdog and has since jumped to +9.5, lost rookie starter E.J. Manuel to a sprained right knee in this Thursday’s loss to the Cleveland Browns. He is expected to miss at least three weeks.

The Bills were already without second-string QB Kevin Kolb, who is out with a concussion, and were forced to promote Lewis from the practice squad. They tried out free agents Dennis Dixon and Pat White but decided to go with Lewis over third-stringer Jeff Tuel, who was just 8 of 20 for 80 yards and threw a critical interception for a TD in relief of Manuel Thursday. Lewis has one career start while with the Browns in 2012.

The total for Sunday’s game opened at 42.5 but is coming up as low as 39 points in Las Vegas.

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NFL Line Watch Jets' Monday upset moves money, spread

Each week during the pro football season, Art Aronson looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to Bet Now

Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets (Opened +2.5)

The Steelers lost 34-27 to the Vikings in London two weeks ago and are 0-4. Clearly, the oddsmakers believe that Pittsburgh is going to win at least a couple games this season and with two whole weeks off to prepare for the hapless Jets, this seemed to have been the perfect matchup to get off the schneid.

Hold the phone. New York wasn't supposed to dominate the Falcons in Atlanta and escape with an improbable 30-28 outright victory as a 10-point underdog Monday night. But, that's exactly what happened.

Bettors have quickly jumped on New York and this line has already started to swing dramatically. As of Tuesday morning, I still see a +3 for the Jets on the board, but for the most part New York is now a 2.5-point favorite with a few 3s creeping up as well.

If you think that the home side can make the most of this situation and parlay its last performance into a tiny win skein, you'd better hurry up and get on it.

Spread to Wait on

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (Opened -10.5)

If you're a fan of the Kansas City Chiefs, I'd recommend waiting a bit closer to kickoff before getting down. This line opened at -10.5 but after the Raiders flattened the Chargers 27-17 as 6.5-point dogs last week, bettors were quick to jump on the double-digit spread. We're now seeing some 9s and even 8.5s hitting the board.

At 5-0, all eyes are on Andy Reid and the Chiefs. Kansas City fans have to like their chances to be a perfect 9-0 when their team enters its bye, with very winnable games versus the Raiders this week, vs. Houston, vs. Cleveland and at Buffalo.

Total to Watch

Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Opened 45.5)

Looking to hammer an over? You'd better move quick. This total opened at 45.5, but 46s have started to hit the board. After a sluggish start, the Eagles would finally hit their stride and dispatch of the Giants 36-21 last week - perhaps a big reason this total has already started to climb.

Or perhaps it's because the Bucs are 0-4, off their bye week and with a new pivot under center, sharps feel that they can finally put some points on the board versus this vanilla Philadelphia secondary, after totaling just 44 over their first four games.

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See spot. See spot bet This week's best spot bet opportunities
by Jason Logan

Letdown Spot

Neither the Broncos nor the Jaguars have shown any reason for bettors to doubt Denver’s ability to cover this historic spread. Peyton Manning & Co. posted 51 points in a shootout in Dallas while Jacksonville made St. Louis look like…, well, Denver in a 34-20 loss Sunday. While the points are stacked against the Broncos, the odds seem to be in their favor.

Denver, however, is coming off a huge emotional win versus the Cowboys, its only close call of the season, and will also be looking past the Jaguars – the dreaded sandwich spot, a perfect storm for situational bettors. The Broncos have a trip to Indianapolis for Manning’s homecoming in Week 7 – his first game against the Colts since they cut ties and sided with QB Andrew Luck. It seems like the only ones stopping Denver from covering this pile of chalk is itself.

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Book: Gronkowski won't do much for Patriots' odds

The New England Patriots are expected to have star TE Rob Gronkowski back in the lineup when the team hosts the New Orleans Saints Sunday, according to a USA TODAY Sports source.

Oddsmakers opened the Patriots as big as 3-point home favorites but that was bet down to -1 with action on the undefeated Saints. New England suffered its first loss of the season at Cincinnati last Sunday, falling short on a would-be, game-winning drive in the driving Ohio rain.

“I don't think his return will impact the odds for this week’s game against the Saints,” Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker with CarbonSport. “The way the Saints are playing, I could see us moving them to the favorite in this game. “

Gronkowski has yet to play this season while recovering from offseason back surgery. He was QB Tom Brady’s favorite red-zone target last season, catching 11 TDs to go along with 790 receiving yards.

Gronkowski’s slow recovery, and former TE Aaron Hernandez’s murder investigation, has left New England without its top two tight ends from 2012. Current TEs Michael Hoomanawanui and Matthew Mulligan have combined for only four catches and 39 yards with one touchdown.

“It’s also hard to say how much Gronk is worth without his side kick (Aaron) Hernandez,” says Stewart. “Defenses will roll double coverage to him to eliminate him from the game.”

The total for Sunday’s showdown with the Saints is set at 49.5 points.

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StatFox Super Situations - FoxSheets

NFL ST LOUIS at HOUSTON

Play Against - Road underdogs or pick (ST LOUIS) after scoring 30 points or more last game against opponent after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game
41-15 over the last 10 seasons. ( 73.2% 24.5 units )
2-0 this year. ( 100.0% 2.0 units )

NFL DETROIT at CLEVELAND
Play Against - Road teams vs. the money line (DETROIT) off a loss against a division rival against opponent off a home win by 10 points or more
25-7 over the last 10 seasons. ( 78.1% 0.0 units )

NFL TENNESSEE at SEATTLE
Play Under - Any team vs the the 1rst half total off an upset loss as a road favorite, a top-level team (>=75%) playing a team with a winning record
41-15 since 1997. ( 73.2% 24.5 units )

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Betting First Look with Marco D'Angelo

Teaser 7pts
Tampa Bay and Houston

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Where the action is: NFL mid-week line moves

Odds for Week 6 of the NFL season have been up since the weekend and books have already made some major adjustments to the lines as of Wednesday. We talk to sportsbooks and oddsmakers about the biggest mid-week line moves:

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs – Open: -10, Move: -8.5

Apparently, the early money isn’t sold on the Chiefs' perfect record and expects a stumble when the Raiders come to Arrowhead. This line has dropped from the key number of 10, but should go back up when the public comes in on the undefeated home favorite Sunday.

“Yeah, Oakland looked good and that's what's driving the early money. But we really like the Chiefs side here,” Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, says. “That Chiefs money is looming and you should expect to get it while you're at this low level early in the week.”

Green Bay Packers at Baltimore Ravens – Open: +1, Move: +3, Move: +2

Early money moved this spread up to a field goal, however, injuries to the Packers' linebacker corps have trimmed a point off that line. Standout LB Clay Matthews is out for at least a month with a broken thumb.

“The problems for Green Bay are those injuries and that Baltimore is getting healthy at the right time in a weak division,” Aron Black of bet365.com told Covers. “A big game for both teams, with action steady on Baltimore with the early lines but coming back on Green Bay at -2. Baltimore action is about 2.5/1 to Green Bay on the spread.”

Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets – Open: +3, Move: -3

Before the Jets shocked the Falcons on Monday Night Football, New York was a field-goal underdog at home in Week 6. However, that impressive performance has swayed early action, moving this line as many as six points at some markets.

“There will be many kicking themselves for not taking New york before the move,” says Black. “We are pretty light on Jets action, but are seeing Pittsburgh action as a small dog. A definite ‘who knows what will happen?’ game.”

Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos – Open: -28, Move: -26.5

The early money isn’t quick to give the most points in NFL history and has moved this historic spread down 1.5 points and under four touchdowns. According to Black, action on Denver is outnumbering Jacksonville at a 2/1 pace and he could see this line coming back up to 27.5 or a light -28 by kickoff Sunday afternoon.

“If anyone likes the Jags to do anything decent in this game, stay away from the spread and find the lowest Jaguars team total you can and go over,” says Black. “One thing that Denver has proved so far is, if not for such a dominant pass game they would be getting tore up by pundits for the lack of defense. If Denver scores the expected six or so TDs, then Jacksonville will at least get many opportunities to score themselves.”

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys – Open: -4, Move: -6

Even though the Cowboys lost to Denver last weekend, the betting market was more than impressed with Dallas’ effort – enough to tack two points on the opening spread for this NFC East rivalry. That may be giving Big D too much credit against a desperate Redskins squad.

“Dallas' showing versus Denver was impressive but we have a sneaking suspicion of a letdown here,” says Korner. “Washington needs a boost themselves and this is the venue to turn things around.”

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Inside the stats: 5-0 NCF teams beware Game 6 trend
By MARC LAWRENCE

Each week we take a look inside the numbers, from both a statistical and a pointspread aspect, on the college football and NFL cards.

Here are this week’s findings:

Leaking oil

When a team has been out gained in each of its three previous games it is refered to them as “leaking oil”.

Like a bad engine not hitting on all cylinders, they not only burn combustion but money as well, especially when cast in to the role of a favorite.

There have been six college football and three NFL teams that have been installed as “leaking oil” favorites this season. Collectively they are 1-8 ATS (0-6 CFB; 1-2 NFL).

Last week saw Southern Mississippi (-16) and the Miami Dolphins (-3) laying points. They both lost the whole game, straight up.

This week’s Pennzoil plays would be against: Arkansas State, Connecticut, Massachusetts and Troy in college football, along with the Vikings in the NFL.

5-0 fat cats

It’s the time of the season in which undefeated college football teams begin entertaining ideas of playing in the coveted BCS title game – especially those squads that have managed to open the season with five consecutive wins in their first five games.

Forewarned is forearmed, however, when it comes to playing on these 5-0 clubs as Game 6 is often times a major chuckhole on the road to the BCS title game for these fat cats. That’s confirmed by the fact that, since 1980, these teams are 260-112-6 SU and 161-186-5 ATS overall. Hence, the bubble bursts over 30 percent of the time in Game 6 situations for teams that start the season on a 5-0 note.

Worse, if these guys find themselves either pick or favored in a conference game, they dip to 62-88-3 ATS.

The week’s list includes the likes of Louisville on Thursday, along with Clemson, Northern Illinois, Oklahoma, Oregon and Texas Tech on Saturday.

And if these same 5-0 teams won 10 or fewer regular season games last season, and are off a spread win of nine or more points in their last game, they fall to 14-34-1 ATS, including 3-16 ATS if they are home and allowed 21 or fewer points in their last game.

As one of our all time favorite bands - the Traveling Wilburys - once said, it just might be the “End Of The Line” for the Red Raiders and the Tigers this weekend.

Double entendres

As you know, we enjoy examining teams who won their most recent game on the scoreboard, but lost the yards on the stat sheet.

We call it winning games “inside-out”.

When their opponent suffered a loss, yet won the stats, these become double-entendres - or matchups of two teams off completely opposite SU and ITS (In The Stats) results.

No less the five games dot the NFL schedule this week involving double-entendres. They include (with the game loser/stat winner listed first: Carolina-Minnesota, Houston-St. Louis, Jacksonville-Denver, Pittsburgh-N.Y. Jets and San Diego-Indianapolis.

The Chargers-Colts clash features both teams off 100-yard inside-out results.

Highs and lows

Last week, there were some really high-scoring games (99 points in Dallas, 62 points in Indianapolis, 61 points in Cleveland) and some low- scoring games (19 points in Cincinnati, 28 points in Arizona, 31 points in Green Bay).

After five weeks the oddsmakers have done a very good job balancing out their totals, with 40 Overs and 37 Unders.

The best Over situations have been in non-conference games (AFC vs. NFC), going 19-8 O/U on the season, including 4-1 O/U last week.

Stat of the Week

USC interim head coach Ed Orgeron was 0-23 straight up overall in games versus .500 or greater opponents as a head coach at Ole Miss.

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NFL home teams covering at almost 60 percent rate

Home is where the heart – and money – is through the first five weeks of the 2013 NFL season.

Heading into Week 6’s schedule, home teams have gone 44-30-3 ATS (59.46%), with home favorites boasting a 27-19-3 (58.7%) ATS mark and home underdogs going 17-11-0 (60.71%) against the spread.

There are 11 teams that are perfect ATS at home this season – and no, Denver is not one of them (2-0-1 ATS). Of those teams, four are 3-0 ATS as hosts: the New Orleans Saints, Cincinnati Bengals, Buffalo Bills and Dallas Cowboys.

The Cowboys are perhaps the biggest shocker on this list, having gone 1-7 ATS inside AT&T Stadium – formerly Cowboys Stadium – last season. Dallas is home to the Washington Redskins as a 6-point home favorite this Sunday.

The other 3-0 ATS home winner back on familiar turf in Week 6 are the Buffalo Bills, who welcome the Bengals to Ralph Wilson Stadium as 7.5-point underdogs Sunday.

Last week, home teams went 9-5 ATS, including a 5-2 ATS mark from home underdogs.

Note: There are seven teams which have failed to cover a single spread at home this season: Philadelphia, Chicago (0-2-1 ATS), Washington, Houston, Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, and the New York Giants.

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Colin Cowherd Blazing 5 (plus bonus cookie)

NYJ -2 (27-20)
NO +2.5 (26-23)
WASH +5.5 (27-28)
CIN -7 (28-13)
TB +1.5 (24-23)
IND -1.5 (31-23)

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Wunderdog Sports Free Pick

Game: Washington at Dallas (Sunday 10/13 8:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: Game Total UNDER 53 (-110) at Sportsbook.com

The "game of the year" last week between Dallas and the Denver Broncos saw nearly 100 points scored. That game garnered a ton of attention and it has pushed the total a bit higher here for this one vs. Washington. This is a huge division rivalry game, and these types of games are often played with a lot of defensive intensity. There is more at stake here, as the loser will suffer their fourth loss, so I do expect this one to be played tough in the trenches. Last year these teams played to totals of 47 and 48, so there is definitely some wiggle room as the total is set too high. Washington has not scored a ton of points in any game this season as RGII continues to struggle to get healthy after knee surgery. The Skins defense has allowed fewer points in consecutive games, and is now coming off a bye. Dallas has shown the ability to clamp down on defense after allowing 30+ in their previous game, and have gone 8-2 to the UNDER in their last 10 after having done so. Under Mike Shanahan, the Redskins are 17-7 to the UNDER when facing great offensive teams (those like Dallas averaging over 5.6 yards per play). Play this one UNDER the total.

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