10-13-13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Essential betting tidbits for Week 6 of the NFL

We dug up these vital betting tidbits for some of Sunday's NFL action that will help you make the right call before kickoff.

- The Baltimore Ravens are 13-0 in their last 13 home games against NFC opponents.

- The Packers have lost five of the last six games on the road dating back to Week 11 of the 2012.

- Nick Foles, who will likely start under center for the Eagles Sunday, was 1-5 in six starts as a rookie last year.

- The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the previous five meetings between the Eagles and Bucs. Tampa Bay is a 1-point home dog.

- The Pittsburgh Steelers have won 16 of the previous 20 meetings against the New York Jets.

- Jets rookie QB Geno Smith was 16-for-20 with three TD passes en route to a 30-28 victory over the Atlanta Falcons and AFC Offensive Player of the Week honors.

- The Minnesota Vikings and Carolina Panthers have played Under in four straight meetings and eight of the last 10. Sunday's total is 44.

- The Oakland Raiders are 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings in Kansas City.

- Chiefs fans will attempt to set the world record for crowd noise at Arrowhead Sunday. Seattle Seahawks fans set the record in the Sept. 16 rout over the San Francisco 49ers.

- Rams coach Jeff Fisher went 7-3 against Gary Kubiak’s Houston teams when he was coach of the Tennessee Titans.

- Speaking of the Texans, they are one of just three teams (Jacksonville Jaguars, Pittsburgh Steelers) to have not covered a spread this season. Houston is a 7.5-point home fave Sunday.

- The Cincinnati Bengals have lost six straight games in Buffalo. Their last win was in November 1985.

- Buffalo will start Thaddeus Lewis at QB. Lewis will make his second career start. The Bills are 6-point home dogs Sunday.

- Brandon Weeden returns to starting-QB duties for the Cleveland Browns. Weeden was under center for both Cleveland's losses this season.

- The Lions' two losses have come on the road and they are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games. They are 1-point road faves Sunday.

- The Seattle Seahawks have won 10-straight games at CenturyLink Field and are 9-1 ATS over that stretch. They are 13.5-point home faves against Tennessee Sunday.

- The Titans defense held the Chiefs to 1-for-12 on third-down conversions last week. The Seahawks rank 28th in the league as they convert just 4.0 third downs per game.

- The Denver Broncos scored 51 points last week against Dallas. The Jacksonville Jaguars have scored 51 points in five games this season.

- The Broncos sport the NFL's only 5-0 O/U record (the Vikings are 4-0 O/U). Sunday's total versus Jacksonville is 53.

- Tom Brady had a passer rating of 52.2 in last week's loss to Cincinnati. It was his lowest rating since 2007.

- The New Orleans Saints have the fewest turnovers in the NFC with five.

- The road team is 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings between the Cardinals and 49ers. The Cardinals are 10.5-point road underdogs Sunday.

- Tony Romo has done his best work at home. The QB has 19 TDs and just two INTs in his previous six home games.

- The Redskins are 6-0 in their last six games in Dallas. The Skins are 5.5-point road dogs in Dallas Sunday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL Top 5: Key Week 6 injuries

The New England Patriots, Philadelphia Eagles and Detroit Lions could all be down star players as they take to the field for Week 6. With statuses still in doubt, bettors will want to keep an eye on all three teams - as well as several others that face major injury issues.

Here's a look at the five biggest injury impacts entering the bulk of Week 6:

Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England Patriots (questionable, back/forearm)

The ongoing Gronkowski saga took another bizarre turn this week. It was widely reported that the versatile tight end was expected to return to action this week, but his status remains in limbo as doctors have yet to clear him for a return to action. Gronkowski's problematic forearm injury hasn't healed to their satisfaction, leaving Tom Brady's top receiving target as a lessor factor even if he is somehow cleared prior to Sunday afternoon.

The Patriots are installed as one-point favorites for Sunday's tilt with the visiting New Orleans Saints. The over/under is set at 50.5.

Michael Vick, QB, Philadelphia Eagles (questionable, hamstring)

Vick returned to practice as a full participant Friday, but the Philadelphia Inquirer reports that Vick is still doubtful to take the field as he nurses a strained hamstring. There's still a chance Vick may remain active as the emergency backup to Nick Foles. Regardless, bettors should proceed as if Foles will play the entire game as the Eagles look to rest Vick in preparation for a Week 7 showdown with Dallas.

The Eagles are listed as one-point underdogs Sunday against Tampa Bay, with the over/under at 45.5.

Calvin Johnson, WR, Detroit Lions (questionable, knee)

There is hope for Lions fans this week, with beat writer Tim Twentyman reporting that last year's league leader in receiving yards will be in the lineup Sunday. Johnson missed last week's game with a knee injury but participated in the open portion of Friday's practice. Head coach Jim Schwartz remains noncommittal, suggesting that Johnson will be a game-time decision.

The Lions are one-point favorites for Sunday afternoon's showdown with the host Cleveland Browns. The over/under is set at 44.

Darren McFadden, RB, Oakland Raiders (questionable, hamstring)

McFadden's status remains shrouded in mystery; the veterain running back practiced every day this week, but San Fransico Chronicle reporter Vic Tafur writes that he doesn't get the sense McFadden is ready to return to game action. The injury-prone 26-year-old told reporters he felt "pretty close" to full speed. McFadden's absence would mean a large workload for Rashad Jennings, who is returning from his own hamstring injury but is expected to play.

The Raiders go into Sunday's game against the host Kansas City Chiefs as 9.5-point underdogs. The over/under is 41.

Ryan Mathews, RB, San Diego Chargers (probable, concussion)

Mathews was knocked silly in last weekend's game against the Oakland Raiders but has progressed nicely throughout the week and was a full participant in Saturday's practice. He passed the final hurdle Saturday when he cleared his concussion protocol. Mathews will be installed as San Diego's feature back, though he's a distant third on the pecking order on passing downs to the red-hot Danny Woodhead and veteran Ronnie Brown.

The Chargers find themselves a one-point favorite for the Monday nighter against visiting Indianapolis. The over/under is set at 50.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DOC SPORTS

5 Unit Play. #107/#209 Take Detroit Lions -2.5 over Cleveland Browns (Sunday 1 pm FOX)
Top NFL Play of the Weekend.
Both teams have been hit hard by injuries to key personnel. However, the Lions have much more talent than do the Cleveland Browns. Detroit played well on defense last week against Green Bay in a place where they never win. Despite that loss, the Lions currently sit atop the standings in the NFC North and cannot afford a loss to the Browns if they have visions of winning the division. Cleveland has won three straight games after trading away Trent Richardson, but they suffered a quarterback injury last week and now must turn back to Brandon Weeden, a player his teammates do not have confidence in. This play reminds me a lot of the Kansas City - Tennessee game last week, and we fully expect a similar result to that. Detroit is 4-1 ATS in their last five games played during the month of October.

4 Unit Play. #104/#208 Take Baltimore Ravens +3 over Green Bay Packers (Sunday 1 pm FOX) The wrong team is favored in this game considering the Packers will be playing without their best defensive player in Clay Matthews. Baltimore is 4-0 straight up and against the spread against NFC North teams at M&T Bank Stadium. The Ravens have won three of their last four games, including an impressive victory last week in South Florida. Green Bay is 0-2 on the road this year. QB Aaron Rogers will put up some points and yards, but the Ravens will be able to match his production. Green Bay is 1-6 ATS in their last seven games on field turf. Baltimore is 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.

4 Unit Play. #119/#221 Take Jacksonville Jaguars +27.5 over Denver Broncos (Sunday 4:05 pm CBS) This is the largest pointspread in history, and not much good can be said about Jacksonville. But the one fact we cannot ignore is that since 1985 is that underdogs of more than 20 points are a perfect 6-0 against the spread.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ROBERT FERRINGO

SUNDAY PRO FOOTBALL PLAYS

5-Unit Play. Take #214 Houston (-7.5) over St. Louis (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 13)
In NFL betting, when everyone is running away from a team that is when you want to be running toward them. That is the case with Houston. Everyone is off the bandwagon and leaving this team for dead. But I think that now is the time to jump on board. This is really a put-up or shut-up week for the Texans and for Matt Schaub. He is set to lose his job and if this team loses this game they will essentially be out of the running in the AFC South. Houston has the No. 1 defense in the NFL and the No. 7 defense in the league. Yet they can't score and they give up a ton of points. The scoring is a statistical anomaly. I am trusting in the fact that this team is moving the ball and they are stopping their opponents. And I think that will carry over into this game here. The Texans have dumped three straight. But look at who they've played. They went to Baltimore - probably the third most difficult place in the league to get a win, behind Seattle and New Orleans - and they lost. Then they dominated Seattle for three quarters and choked that game away. After that they had to go to San Francisco. So they have faced the two Super Bowl reps and one of the favorites to go to this year's Super Bowl. And they lost, getting blown out twice on the road. It happens. But that doesn't mean that this is a terrible team.

St. Louis is a terrible team. They were outplayed by the Jaguars last week. Were it not for a Jaguars kick return for a TD called back and a Rams defensive TD (thanks to loser Blaine Gabbert) that game was equal. The Rams are sans Cortland Finnegan. And without him they have one of the three or four worst secondaries in the league. They cannot stop anyone. And against a motivated Houston passing game this week that is a major problem. On top of that, St. Louis' special teams is a mess. That is attributable to their youth and lack of depth. Oh, and they have no consistent running game and their receivers suck. Basically, it is Sam Bradford - who I am a huge fan of - some good offensive linemen, and then a bunch of asshats.

So we have a motivated, talented, angry Houston team. And we have a sloppy, disorganized St. Louis team. This play reminds me a bit of our winner with Green Bay last week. I think this line is this high for a reason and that the Texans are going to lay into St. Louis here.

4-Unit Play. Take #215 Pittsburgh (+2.5) over N.Y. Jets (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 13)
Here we have another put-up or shut-up game. The Steelers are 0-4. Going back to the preseason they are 0-8 ATS so far this season. That is just not going to continue. It's just not. All of the math and all of the numbers suggest that the Steelers are going to win and/or cover a spread immediately. They have had two weeks off to scheme for this game. And they are now set to make a last stand. It is never too early in the year to be desperate. And the Steelers are incredibly desperate. Pittsburgh has been moving the ball. They have racked up nearly 900 yards of total offense in their last two games and have nothing to show for it. Again, that is not sustainable. They keep turning the ball over. But I think that they will do a better job of taking care of it this week. And if they do then this is a strong situation for them to get a win over a team that they are simply more experienced and more talented then.

You know what storyline I am not buying? The Jets resurgence. The Jets suck. They fluked out wins against Tampa Bay and Atlanta - two teams that are a combined 1-8 right now, by the way. And those two goofy wins are all that stands between them and 1-4 right now. The Steelers defense has not played to its potential. But they still have some guys that can play. And they are going to give out a max effort in this situation and going to put a lot of pressure on the Jets rookie quarterback. I just think that this one is setting up well for the roadie. And I simply can't see the Steelers falling to 0-5. They are not good. But they are not that bad.

3-Unit Play. Take #212 Minnesota (-2.5) over Carolina (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 13)
Carolina is coming off the rails. They were blown out in the second half at Arizona last week. They had to fly back across the country, hang out, and then fly up to Minnesota. They traded one of their best defenders, Jon Beason, in a move that signifies the team is already looking to the future. They have a lame duck coach. They have a shredded offensive line. They have no receiving options beyond Steve Smith. So, yeah, things aren't going so well for the Panthers. And I don't really understand this spread.

The Vikings are coming off a win and coming off a bye. They are also a team that has been known to go ape on opponents that come to the Metrodome. Minnesota's defense has been horrible. But they should have schemed some things out during the last two weeks. And they always get a big boost on defense from the home crowd. As long as Matt Cassel takes care of the ball, the Vikings really have a lot of weapons on offense. Adrian Peterson, Greg Jennings, Jerome Simpson, Cord Patterson and Kyle Rudolph give them plenty of options. They also have a solid offensive line. They just need someone to get it to them without turning the ball over. Cassel is terrible. He is noodle-armed and weak. But he is experienced. And he should be sharp out of the break. I think the Vikings get off to a hot start. And if they do, the Panthers will pack it in. I see this game as a blowout for the home team.

3-Unit Play. Take #224 San Francisco (-10.5) over Arizona (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 13)
I have quite a bit of money down on the Arizona Cardinals going 'over' 5.5 wins this year. The Cardinals 'over' and the Chiefs 'over' were my two biggest futures bets this year so I watch those two teams very closely. The Cardinals are 3-2 at this juncture (I had them at 2-3 at this point) and they have been playing decent ball. They are on a two-game winning streak and are 4-1 ATS this year. They have a little bit of mojo, and Arizona's defense is one of the most underrated in football. But in watching them over the past two weeks I can tell you without a doubt that they were lucky, flat-out lucky, to get their wins against Tampa Bay and Carolina. And, frankly, they were fortunate to hang on against Detroit as well. But, in terms of this play, they are due for a smackdown after how they came to win the last two weeks.

Basically, Carson Palmer is a loser. He can't handle pressure - at all - and has nearly double the amount of INTs (9) as he does TDs (5). He is averaging two picks per game and if he turns the ball over against the 49ers this game is going to get out of hand. And that is exactly what I see happening. San Francisco is starting to pick up its game. After a slow start they have had back-to-back solid performances, with wins by 24 and 31 points. I think they can do the same this week. San Fran has won seven of eight games over the Cardinals by an average of 17 points per game. I think that will be close to their margin of victory here. I'll call it 34-20.

2-Unit Play. Take #221 Jacksonville (+27.5) at Denver (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 13)

1-Unit Play. Take #228 Dallas (-5.5) over Washington (8:30 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 13)

This Week's Totals

3-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 43.0 - St. Louis at Houston (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 13)

2-Unit Play. Take 'Over 44.0 - Carolina at Minnesota (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 13)

2-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 41.5 - Arizona at San Francisco (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 13)

2-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 52.5 - Jacksonville at Denver (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 13)

1-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 44.0 - Detroit at Cleveland (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 13)

1-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 48.5 - Green Bay at Baltimore (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 13)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

STRIKE POINT SPORTS

6-Unit Play. Take #212 Minnesota (-2.5) over Carolina (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 13)
This Vikings offense looked considerably better with Matt Cassel under center and now coming off a bye, they will have had a bit more time to get with Cassel. It was announced that Matt will be starting this game, and he will want to make a statement with Josh Freeman waiting in the wings. The Vikings are waiting for AP to have a huge day, and even though the Panthers are a solid rush defense, I see it happening this weekend. Carolina hasn't proven anything this season, with the exception of destroying the Giants, but who hasn't done that? I don't see how they stay within a touchdown of the Vikings here.

Carolina is coming off a bye as well, but going on the road just doesn't do the Panthers any favors. This Vikings team knows that a victory could put them at 2-3 and withing striking distance of the top of their division, especially if one of the top teams slip this weekend.

Carolina is 1-5 ATS in their last six games following the bye week, while the Vikings are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games. The home team is where the value lies in this contest as the home squad is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between the two teams. I will take a rested Vikings team over a rested Panthers team any day of the week and twice on Sunday's.

3-Unit Play. Take #218 Buffalo (+7) over Cincinnati (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 13)
This is a perfect letdown spot for the Bengals. Cincy is coming off a huge home win over the New England Patriots in which their defense completely shut down Tom Brady. Now they have to go to Buffalo and lay a touchdown. I just don't see them getting up for this game. The Bengals definitely should win this game, but I see it being much closer than seven points. The Bills have one of the better rushing offenses in the NFL and they will be able to control the clock and keep this game close. Cincy has been up and down this season winning games versus Green Bay and New England but losing to Cleveland. The Bengals have only been a touchdown road favorite eight times since 1980 and they are 1-5-2 ATS in those eight contests. Take the home dog in this one as the Bills keep it close regardless of whom they are starting at QB. Thaddeus Lewis will be similar to EJ Manuel in his style of play and as long as he hands the ball off the Bills will be fine.

4-Unit Play. Take #220 Seattle (-13.5) over Tennessee (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 13)
This is Seattle's one home game in a streak of five weekends. I know that this is a lot of points to lay versus a solid Titans squad that can play some defense, but Seattle, at home, versus a backup quarterback? I will lay the points. The Seahawks just destroy people at home and mistake-prone QB Ryan Fitzpatrick will be just that in front of this crazy crowd. Fitz is good for at least 6-10 points for Seattle after he turns the ball over, and the Seahawks will take advantage of the short field all day long. Look for Seattle to jump on Tennessee early and not look back. I wouldn't be surprised to see Seattle win this one by nearly 20 points.

Tennessee is 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games versus a team with a winning record while Seattle is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games versus a team with a winning record. Even better here is we are getting the Seahawks off a loss and they are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss. Tennessee just won't be able to keep pace in this one as Seattle is 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games on field turf. Lay the big number here as it gets covered easily.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chad Matthews

2-Unit Play. #205 Philadelphia Eagles -1.5 over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Oct 13 @ 1pmET)
The high offense Eagles head down to Tampa to take on a disorganized and sputtering Buccaneers team that just can't seem to get anything right this season. The Buccaneers who are 0-4 this season and 1-3 against the spread. The Eagles who are ranked 1st in the league in rushing yards should be able to get the attack going on the ground. The Bucs are ranked 9th in the league in rush defense but I think the Eagles offense even without Michael Vick will be just to much for the Bucs to deal with. Take the Eagles on a small play and lay the -1.5 here

3-Unit Play. #212 Minnesota Vikings -2.5 over the Carolina Panthers (Oct 13 @ 1pmET)
The Carolina Panthers head to Minnesota this weekend to take on the Vikings. The Panthers are 1-3 against the spread this season and can't seem to figure things out on the offensive side of the ball. Last week the Panthers were only able to chalk up a measly six points against the Arizona Cardinals on the road. The Panthers play decent defense but on the road and with Adrian Peterson on the end of the scheme I see the home favorites pulling ahead late and covering the field goal. Take the Vikings at -2.5 here.

2-Unit Play. #228 Dallas Cowboys -5.5 over the Washington Redskins (Oct 13 @ 8:30pmET)
The Redskins had this weekend to Arlington for a divisional rival showdown against the Dallas Cowboys. The Redskins have had the Cowboys number the past several meetings these two teams have met however this years Cowboys team is a much healthier squad this year than previous years past. The offensive threat of quarterback Tony Romo, Jason Witten, Dez Bryant and Terrance Williams I believe is to much for this struggling Redskins team to overcome. The Redskins are 1-3 this year against the spread. The Cowboys had a disappointing loss last weekend as they almost edged out and beat the unstoppable Denver Broncos just coming up short with Romo throwing a late game interception to decide their fate. The Redskins are a very soft team this year and can't seem to get it going. The Cowboys defense is awful but the Redskins on the road are more vulnerable in this situation. Take a small play and take Dallas -5.5

3-Unit Play. #229 Indianapolis Colts -2.5 over the San Diego Chargers (Oct 14 @ 8:40pmET)
Quarterback Andrew Luck and the high octane Indianapolis Colts head to San Diego to play a very inconsistent Chargers team. The Colts I believe are the most improved team this year all around. Their defense is finally showing up and their offensive line is big enough to finally protect Andrew Luck. Everything is just clicking for the Colts who knocked off the Seattle Seahawks last weekend at home. The Colts have covered the spread three consecutive weeks in a row now and I see the trend continuing again on Monday as well. Take the Colts and lay that field goal at -2.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ALLEN EASTMAN

3* DAL 1st Half -3
3* TEN +13.5
3* PHI @ TB - U46
4* DAL -5.5
4* CIN -7

411 Sysytem
5* GOM - NO +2.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL Betting Weather Report Sunday's Forecasts

Find out how weather will impact your NFL bets for Sunday's matchups:

Green Bay Packers at Baltimore Ravens (+1, 49)

Temperatures will be in the low-60s with a 34 percent chance of rain. Wind will blow diagonally from the northeast at 9 mph.

Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1, 45.5)

Fans at Raymond James Stadium will be treated to sunny skies and temperatures in the mid-80s. Wind will blow out of the northwest at 7 mph.

Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets (+1, 41)

Temperatures at MetLife Stadium will be in the mid-60s with wind blowing across the width of the field at 7 mph and partly cloudy skies.

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5, 41)

Arrowhead Stadium will see sunny skies with temperatures in the mid-60s and wind blowing diagonally out of the east at 7 mph.

Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills (+6, 41.5)

Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with overcast skies and a 38 percent chance of rain later in the day. Wind will blow across the width of the field at 4 mph.

Detroit Lions at Cleveland Browns (+1, 44)

Fans at FirstEnergy Stadium face a 25 percent chance of rain with wind blowing diagonally out of the northwest at 6 mph and temperatures in the mid-60s.

Tennessee Titans at Seattle Seahawks (-13.5, 41)

Temperatures at CenturyLink Field will be in the mid-50s with partly cloudy skies and wind blowing diagonally out of the northwest at 6 mph

Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos (-26, 53)

Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with partly cloudy skies and winds blowing diagonally out of the southeast at 3 mph.

New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots (+1, 50.5)

Gillette Stadium will see clear skies with temperatures in the high-50s and wind blowing across the width of the field at 6 mph.

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-10.5, 41)

Temperatures at Candlestick Park will be in the low-60s with clear skies and wind blowing across the width of the field at 7 mph.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Pointspreadpros

Week 6 TOP Plays

HOUSTON -7.5
NY JETS -2.5
New Orleans +2.5
Indianapolis -2
DALLAS -5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stephen Nover

214 HOU triple-dime bet

215 PIT double-dime bet

227 WAS double-dime bet

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Essler

OAK double-dime bet

CIN/BUF UNDER triple-dime bet

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Intpicks

3* Jets/Steelers Over
2* Bills, Seahawks, Redskins
1* Texans, Browns
Freeplay - Ravens

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Diamond Dog Sports

Under Eagles
Ravens
Over Saints

[Can'tPickAWinner]

al demarco
15*dime rebound rout of the year

seattle

[Can'tPickAWinner]

cappers access
lions
new england
washington