10-13-13

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ROOT top play NEW ENGLAND PATS

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JIMMY BOYD

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NFL Oct 13 '13
1:00p Cincinnati Bengals vs Buffalo Bills
Take: Buffalo Bills +7-105
5* Underdog of the Month on Buffalo Bills +pts
The Bills are not getting enough respect from the oddsmakers this week. They are without EJ Manuel, but that may not be a bad thing since Thaddeus Lewis is getting the start. Lewis has one career start, and it came against the Pittsburgh Steelers. He completed 22 of his 32 pass attempts for 204 yards, had one touchdown and one interception. Lewis is coming off the practice squad, so he should already be familiar with the Bills offensive schemes.

Cincinnati is playing in a major letdown spot this week. They are coming off an upset win as an underdog last week against the Patriots. They are facing a Bills team that had a few extra days to prepare since they played a Thursday game last week. The Bills defense should have no problem shutting down Cincinnati's non-existent ground attack. The Bengals are averaging a mere 63 rushing yards per game on the road this season.

The Bills are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games. They are also 4-1 in their last five head-to-head meetings against Cincinnati. This matchup also falls into a system to play against teams like Cincinnati when they have a winning record and are coming off an upset win as a home underdog, playing against a team with a losing record. In these situations the oddsmakers have severely overvalued favorites and it has resulted in a 49-21 ATS record on the underdog.

NFL Oct 13 '13
1:00p Philadelphia Eagles vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Take: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2+100
4* Heavy Hitter on Tampa Bay Bucs+pts
The Buccaneers are a better team with Josh Freeman gone. Mike Glennon should continue to improve as the season progresses, and he has the benefit of playing a very soft Eagles defense on his home field this week. With Freeman off the team completely, the drama that surrounded his being benched is also gone which should allow Tampa Bay to concentrate on football instead of off field distractions.

The Buc's defense has held opponents to a mere 14.5 points per game at home this season. The run defense was one of the best in football last season, and they are en-route to repeat as one of the best run defenses again this year. They have held opponents to just 94 rushing yards per game on 3.7 yards per carry overall. When playing at home those numbers improve to just 65 rushing yards allowed on 3.3 yards per carry. The run defense should force the Eagles to rely on the arm of their backup quarterback. Even if Vick makes a miraculous comeback with his hamstring injury, (he is currently listed as doubtful) the Eagles are not a team that moves the ball well through the air. They have completed just 55.6% of their pass attempts, and will struggle against a tough Buccaneers secondary.

The Eagles are 1-5 ATS when coming off a straight up win, and 2-7 ATS when coming off a game in which they scored 30 points or more. Tampa Bay is 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a bye week. In head-to-head matchups between these teams the underdog owns a 4-1 ATS record.

NFL Oct 13 '13
1:00p Detroit Lions vs Cleveland Browns
Take: Cleveland Browns +2½-110
4* No Brainer on Cleveland Browns +pts
The Browns have continuously received little-to-no respect from the oddsmakers this season. Brandon Weeden should have no problem stepping into the starting role considering he was the starter at the beginning of the season before injuring his hand. The Browns are hot right now having won their last three matchups, covering the spread in each of those games.

The Browns played an early game last week so they have a little extra time to prepare for Detroit. The Lions were shut down by Green Bay last week, and they will face a stout Browns defense in this game. Cleveland has held opponents to 17.7 points per game at home, allowing a mere 79 rushing yards and 215 passing yards in those games.

The Lions are serial under-performers when playing on the road. They have a 1-5 ATS record in their last six road games. They are also 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games against a team with a winning home record. The Browns have posted a 5-1 ATS record in their last six games following an ATS win. They are also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games when coming off a performance in which they scored 30 points or more.

NFL Oct 13 '13
4:05p Tennessee Titans vs Seattle Seahawks
Take: Tennessee Titans +14-115
3* Oddsmakers Error on Tennessee Titans +pts
The Titans have jumped out to a 3-2 start this season, yet they find themselves as two touchdown underdogs in this matchup against Seattle. The Seahawks are coming off a loss to the Colts last week, and they are getting far too much credit from the oddsmakers. Home field advantage has been favorable for Seattle, but it is not enough to make up for two touchdowns in a game featuring evenly matched teams.

The Titans defense has been solid this year. They are allowing a mere 19 points per game, and have barely taken a step back when playing on the road allowing 19.5 points per game. The offense has also performed well, scoring 23 points per game. They are gaining 117 rushing yards and they have just two interceptions to eight touchdowns through the air this year.

Seattle is 2-5 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. The Titans have performed well against NFC opponents, posting a 39-20 ATS record in their last 59 games. This matchup also falls into a system to play against favorites of 10.5 points or more like Seattle when they are averaging over 7.3 passing yards per attempt and facing a pass defense that has allowed 5.9 to 6.7 passing yards per attempt. This system is 64-32 ATS.

NFL Oct 13 '13
8:30p Washington Redskins vs Dallas Cowboys
Take: Washington Redskins +6-110
3* No Doubt Rout on Washington Redskins +pts
The Redskin's offense has shown improvement with each passing week. They put up 24 points against a tough Raiders defense two weeks ago, and they should have plenty of time to make necessary adjustments since they are coming off a bye week. Washington has averaged 22.7 points per game, but expect an even better performance against a Cowboys defense that has allowed 29.7 points per game at home this season.

The fact that this is a division game should have Washington playing at peak performance. Add in the fact that they have an extra week to prepare, and are facing a Cowboys defense that was run ragged last week by Denver and we could have a potential upset in the making. Since the Cowboys are at home we will take the points, but expect this to be a very close game.

This matchup falls into a system to play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like Dallas when they are averaging 3.5 to 4.5 yards per carry when they are coming off a game in which they had 75 or less rushing yards and are facing a team that has allowed 4.5 yards per carry or more. This system is 62-27 ATS.

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King Creole

4* Redskins / Cowboys Over

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Chase Diamond

9* Bills +7

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Warren sharp

TENN OVER 41(pro)

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PHILADELPHIA VS. TAMPA BAY
October 13, 2013 - 1:00 PM

Pick: top bet @ 3 -120 Tampa Bay
Expert: Ben Burns
Evaluation: Oct 13 - 1:00 PM

10* Bucs.

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Norm Hitzges Picks of the Pole

DOUBLE PLAYS:
Seattle -13 1/2 Tennessee
Houston -7 St. Louis

SINGLE PLAYS
Cincy -7 1/2 Buffalo
Cincy--Buffalo - UNDER 41 1/2
New Orleans +2 1/2 New England
San Diego +1 1/2 Indy
Arizona--San Fran - UNDER 41
Dallas--Washington - OVER 53 1/2

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Todays Best Bets

5* - [207] Green Bay Packers -2.5 -120 vs Baltimore Ravens

5* - [226] New England Patriots -1 -135 vs New Orleans Saints

4* - [227] Washington Redskins +5.5 -110 vs Dallas Cowboys

3* - [205] Philadelphia Eagles -1.5 -123 vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

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Packers at Ravens: What bettors need to know

Green Bay Packers at Baltimore Ravens (+1, 49)

Joe Flacco is off to a bit of a slow start but could turn things around quickly against a poor pass defense missing its best outside rusher. Flacco will attempt to do just that when the Baltimore Ravens host the banged-up Green Bay Packers on Sunday. The Packers will be without top pass rusher Clay Matthews, who suffered a broken thumb last week and could miss a month.

The Ravens are 3-2 but Flacco owns more interceptions (eight) than touchdown passes (five) after signing a giant contract following a Super Bowl win last season. Aaron Rodgers is on the opposite end of the quarterback spectrum with nine touchdowns and three picks but does not have his team in any better position. Green Bay is winless on the road, where it served up 34 points in each of its losses to San Francisco and Cincinnati.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE: The Packers opened -3 and are now -1. The total opened 48 and is up to 49.

WEATHER: There is a 40 percent chance of rain in the forecast. Wind will blow across the field at 8 mph.

ABOUT THE PACKERS (2-2): Matthews’ absence means Green Bay will turn to a combination of Mike Neal and Nick Perry rushing the passer. Those two combined for three sacks in a win over the Detroit Lions last week and will start on the outside, while the inside linebacker spots are thin after injuries to Brad Jones (hamstring) and Robert Francois (Achilles). Rodgers is coming off an efficient 274-yard, one-touchdown performance in a 22-9 win over the Detroit Lions but will again be without one of his weapons in leading rusher James Starks (knee), leaving the bulk of the carries to rookie Eddie Lacy.

ABOUT THE RAVENS (3-2): Flacco’s last two weeks were the worst of the bunch, with the Super Bowl MVP completing only 53.7 percent of his passes with two touchdowns and six interceptions. Flacco was picked up in last week’s 26-23 victory at Miami by his defense, which surrendered just 22 rushing yards and sacked Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill six times. After getting shredded by the Denver Broncos in the season opener, Baltimore’s defense is working its way back into form by stopping the run and playing tight in the red zone.

TRENDS:

* Packers are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.
* Ravens are 1-5 ATS in their last six games in October.
* Under is 6-1 in Ravens last seven games on fieldturf.
* Under is 5-2 in Packers last seven vs. a team with a winning record.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Rodgers has 29 TD passes in his last 11 games against AFC teams.

2. Ravens WR Torrey Smith leads the AFC with 556 receiving yards and is averaging 20.6 yards per catch.

3. Baltimore is 13-0 in its last 13 home games against NFC opponents.

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Steelers at Jets: What bettors need to know

Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets (+1, 41)

Mired in one of the worst starts in franchise history, the Pittsburgh Steelers attempt to change their fortunes against an opponent that is taking great strides toward doing that very thing. The Steelers vie for their first win of the season on Sunday when they visit the New York Jets, who showed their mettle with a 30-28 triumph in Atlanta on Monday night. Rookie quarterback Geno Smith was named AFC Offensive Player of the Week after completing 16-of-20 passes - three of which resulted in touchdowns.

Pittsburgh was on a bye following a 34-27 loss to Minnesota in London, but saw one team captain exchanged not-so-friendly fire in the direction of another during the week off. Safety Ryan Clark took issue with Ben Roethlisberger's improvisation, saying that the quarterback's tendency to go off the page often leads to turnovers. "It is what it is," Roethlisberger replied. "I'm just going to play the game the way that I play it and try not to turn it over."

TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE: The Jets opened +1. The total opened at 40 and is up to 41.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with partly cloudy skies.

ABOUT THE STEELERS (0-4): For all of the considerable negatives, Pittsburgh did experience a positive as rookie Le'Veon Bell scored twice in his NFL debut against Minnesota. The Steelers hope they've aided in the development of the second-round selection by acquiring Levi Brown from Arizona and demoting fellow offensive tackle Mike Adams. After restructuring his contract in the offseason, Antonio Brown (team-leading 32 receptions) has settled into the top wide receiver role in the wake of Mike Wallace's departure to Miami.

ABOUT THE JETS (3-2): Antonio Cromartie, who was expected to keep tabs on Brown, injured his knee during practice Thursday. The veteran underwent an MRI exam and his potential absence could weaken an already-thin cornerback position with rookie Dee Milliner nursing a hamstring injury. With veteran wideout Santonio Holmes (hamstring) expected to miss his second straight game, Smith could once again look for Jeremy Kerley, who reeled in five receptions for 68 yards and a touchdown against the Falcons. Tight ends Jeff Cumberland and Kellen Winslow lead the team with two touchdowns apiece. Bilal Powell has been consistent albeit unspectacular by averaging 4.2 yards per carry while fellow running backs Chris Ivory and Mike Goodson are still getting their feet under them.

TRENDS:

* Over is 6-1 in Steelers last seven games in Week 6.
* Home team is 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. AFC.
* Over is 10-4 in Jets last 14 games in October.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Jets are second in the league in yards allowed (299), but placed LB Antwan Barnes on injured reserve after his knee buckled in Monday's victory over the Falcons. Barnes had two sacks while leading the club with 12 quarterback hits.

2. The Steelers have won 16 of the 20 meetings versus the Jets - with two of those victories coming in the postseason.

3. New York G Willie Colon spent his first seven years of his career with Pittsburgh.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jaguars at Broncos: What bettors need to know

Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos (-26, 53)

The Jacksonville Jaguars have won the last three meetings with the Denver Broncos, but that seems like ancient history as the teams prepare for what is expected to be a lopsided contest Sunday in Denver. The Broncos, one of three unbeaten teams in the league, are racking up offensive numbers at a record-breaking pace and they've been installed as the largest favorite in NFL history against a winless Jaguars squad. "I think you're in this long enough, whether you're a player or a coach, and we've got enough veteran leadership in there that understands that we don't look at records," Broncos coach John Fox told reporters. "We don't look at point spreads."

Any way of looking at it reveals a mismatch, though, as the Broncos average an NFL-best 46 points while the Jaguars rank last in the league in total offense and scoring offense and 31st in scoring defense. Chad Henne is expected to be back under center for Jacksonville with Blaine Gabbert slowed by a hamstring injury. "Chad's played a lot the last two years, and we have a lot with him in practice, so it's not a big deal at all," receiver Cecil Shorts told the team's website. "We're confident in him."

TV: 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS.
LINE: The Broncos opened -27.5 and are now -26. The total opened 51.5 and is up to 53.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with partly cloudy skies.

ABOUT THE JAGUARS (0-5): Jacksonville's offense has been punchless regardless of who is under center, but its 363 total yards in last week's 34-20 loss at St. Louis marked a season high. The return of receiver Justin Blackmon from a four-game suspension helped, as the second-year wideout had five catches for 136 yards and a touchdown. The defense has been the worst in the league against the run and surprisingly solid against the pass, but that will be tested against Denver's explosive air attack.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (5-0): Denver has won 16 straight regular-season games after a 51-48 shootout at Dallas last week. Peyton Manning (1,884 passing yards, 20 TDs) has the offense moving at a record clip, having scored 230 points through five games - the most in NFL history. The defense has been susceptible against the pass but leads the league against the run, allowing 69.6 rushing yards per game.

TRENDS:

* Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Denver.
* Jaguars are 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Broncos are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven vs. AFC.
* Over is 20-6-1 in Broncos last 27 home games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Broncos have scored 52 and 51 points the past two games, while Jacksonville has scored a total of 51 points in five games.

2. Broncos WR Wes Welker has caught a touchdown pass in seven straight games dating to last season and needs one reception to reach 800 in his career.

3. Jaguars RB Maurice Jones-Drew has averaged 111.5 rushing yards in his past two games versus Denver.

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Tale of the Tape: Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys

One of professional football's most spirited rivalries resumes Sunday night when the Washington Redskins visit the Dallas Cowboys. Despite the teams owning a collective 3-6 record, a win Sunday would propel one of them into first place in the struggling NFC East. Dallas is coming off a wild 51-48 loss to Denver, while the Redskins enjoyed a bye last week.

Here's the breakdown in our betting tale of the tape:

Offense

The Redskins have boasted a solid offense despite quarterback Robert Griffin III's early-season struggles. Washington ranks eighth in the NFL in passing yards per game at 284.8, with No. 1 receiver Pierre Garcon racking up 44 targets through the first four games. The running game has yet to get untracked, with the Alfred Morris-led rush attack sitting 17th in yards per game (106). Griffin, who ran for 815 yards as a rookie, has just 72 so far this season.

While no doubt inflated by last week's shootout loss to the Broncos, the Dallas pass attack has been equally as impressive. The Cowboys rank one spot ahead of the Redskins at 285 yards per game, while their 13 passing touchdowns tie them with San Diego for second-most in the league. Like the rival Redskins, Dallas has struggled to move the ball on the ground; the Cowboys are 20th in yards per game and have just two rushing scores through five games.

Edge: Washington

Defense

The Redskins can only hope the week off provided some much-needed rest and reflection time for a defense that is allowing a league-worst 440.5 yards per contest. As bad as the pass defense has been - ranked 28th in the NFL at 298.3 yards allowed per game - the rush defense has been even worse. No team in the league has surrendered more yards per game than the Redskins (142.3), while their 4.7 yards-per-carry against is 26th.

The loss to Denver also blew up the Cowboys' defensive stats, though they weren't all that impressive to begin with. The Cowboys own the second-worst pass defense in football, surrendering 326.4 yards per game and 14 touchdowns - tied with the New York Giants for the most in the league. The one area in which Dallas owns a sizable advantage is in run defense; the Cowboys are allowing the fourth-fewest yards per game in the NFL at 82.8.

Edge: Dallas

Special Teams

Washington's return game is lacking through the opening six weeks. The Redskins are averaging just 20.3 yards per kickoff return - the sixth-lowest total in the league - with a longest return of just 28 yards. The punt-return game has been equally deficient, with Washington ranked 27th at 5.6 yards per attempt. Kicker John Potter is 3-for-4 on field-goal attempts but will be relegated to the backup role with the return of Kai Forbath, who hasn't played since Week 1.

The Cowboys have been strong on their returns so far in 2013. They're averaging 27 yards per kickoff return and 11.9 yards per punt return - both ranking them sixth in the league. Veteran placekicker Dan Bailey has been solid to date, connecting on nine of 11 field-goal attempts while making all 15 of his extra-point kicks. He hit from 43 and 48 yards out in last week's narrow loss to Denver.

Edge: Dallas

Notable Quotables

"Make no mistake about it: Tony is excellent. And he gives us our best chance of winning a Super Bowl. A lot of people say, 'Well, Jerry, shame on you for making that our very best chance.' I like trying to get there the way we're trying to get there better than the alternative." - Cowboys owner Jerry Jones on quarterback Tony Romo

"I'd like to get (Roy) Helu out there more. It's always a hard thing when you've got two guys you believe in and with the success (Alfred Morris) had last year and how much we do believe in Alf, so we don't like to just keep rotating those guys all the time." Redskins head coach Mike Shanahan on his running back situation

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NFL Prop Shop: Week 6's best player prop bets
By SEAN MURPHY

The doors to the NFL Prop Shop are opening for Week 6 wagering. Check out Covers Expert Sean Murphy’s favorite player prop picks for Sunday’s action:

Most passing yards

Terrelle Pryor (Oakland Raiders) vs. Alex Smith (Kansas City Chiefs)

Not sure Terrelle Pryor's progression as an NFL quarterback is properly being reflected by this line.

The Raiders aren't known for their offensive prowess, but they're certainly coming along in that department, and Pryor is a big part of that. This isn't a team void of talent at the wide receiver position. Denarius Moore has quietly enjoyed three straight strong games, and I expect him to play a big factor this week as well.

Alex Smith has done a terrific job with the Chiefs so far, but this offense isn't just about one guy. Smith has topped out at 288 passing yards in a game this season, but I don't see him approaching that number against an improving Raiders defense.

Take: Pryor

Sam Bradford (St. Louis Rams) vs. Matt Schaub (Houston Texans)

After two consecutive miserable performances, the Texans need to take the heat off of Matt Schaub and they will on Sunday. I fully expect Houston to lean heavily on its ground game against the Rams. This isn't the type of matchup where Schaub needs to shoulder the entire load.

The Rams running game has been virtually non-existent this season, and they would only be banging their heads against the wall by trying to run on a stout Houston front line.

The path to victory has to run through Sam Bradford this week. Keep in mind, he does have a 352-yard passing game under his belt this season, and threw for three scores against Jacksonville last Sunday. A much tougher matchup presents itself here, but I expect to see Bradford air it out early and often.

Take: Bradford

Most rushing yards

LeSean McCoy (Philadelphia Eagles) vs. Doug Martin (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

Shady McCoy hasn't been able to get going since ripping off 158 yards against Kansas City back in Week 3, and I don't see this as an ideal spot for him to get untracked.

Note that the Bucs have been among the league's toughest teams against the run, allowing just 3.7 yards per rush this season.

As for Doug Martin, he's in a similar position to McCoy, having not recorded a 100-yard rushing game since Week 2. I do think he'll be given ample opportunity to do so this week, however, as the Bucs know that they can ill afford to have rookie QB Mike Glennon throwing the ball 40+ times again.

Take: Martin

Most pass receptions

Randall Cobb (Green Bay Packers) vs. Torrey Smith (Baltimore Ravens)

We've made a habit of supporting Ravens players this season, and we'll go back to the well here.

Randall Cobb has emerged as a top-flight receiver for the Packers, but it seems as though the opposition has quickly caught on, holding him to just nine catches and 89 yards in the last two games. You can be sure the Ravens will key on the elusive Cobb this Sunday.

Torrey Smith is one of the NFL's elite wide receivers and he appears to be hitting his stride. Smith is coming off back-to-back huge performances, racking up a combined 287 yards through the air. It's no secret that Joe Flacco will be looking to his star receiver on a regular basis this week.

Take: Smith

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sunday's NFL Week 6 Betting Cheat Sheet Early Action

Green Bay Packers at Baltimore Ravens (+1, 49)

Joe Flacco is off to a bit of a slow start but could turn things around quickly against a poor pass defense missing its best outside rusher. Flacco will attempt to do just that when the Baltimore Ravens host the banged-up Green Bay Packers on Sunday.

Aaron Rodgers is on the opposite end of the quarterback spectrum with nine touchdowns and three picks but does not have his team in any better position. Green Bay is winless on the road, where it served up 34 points in each of its losses to San Francisco and Cincinnati.

LINE: The Ravens opened +3 and are now +1. The total opened 48 and is up to 49.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for a 40 percent chance of rain.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Green Bay (-5.0) - Baltimore (-0.5) + home field (-3.0) = Packers -1.5

TRENDS:
* Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Packers are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.

Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1, 45.5)

Philadelphia, vying for consecutive wins for the first time in 20 games, finds itself tied for first with Dallas in the weak NFC East despite the losing record. No matter who is under center, running back LeSean McCoy — who leads the NFL with 514 yards rushing and 700 yards from scrimmage — is sure to see a lot of action as part of the league's top rushing attack at 186.6 yards per game.

Second-year coach Greg Schiano has come increasingly under fire as Tampa Bay has lost nine of its past 10 games and five in a row at home dating to last season. His handling of quarterback Josh Freeman, who was benched and later released after a particularly ugly falling out, has intensified the criticism.

LINE: The game opened as a pick with the Bucs moving to +1. The total is 45.5.

WEATHER: Skies will be clear and temperatures will be in the mid-80s.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Philadelphia (+1.5) - Tampa Bay (+5.5) + home field (-3.0) = Eagles -1

TRENDS:
* Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Under is 7-0 in Buccaneers last seven vs. NFC.
* Eagles are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games following a bye week.

Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets (+1, 41)

Pittsburgh was on a bye following a 34-27 loss to Minnesota in London, but saw one team captain exchanged not-so-friendly fire in the direction of another during the week off. Safety Ryan Clark took issue with Ben Roethlisberger's improvisation, saying that the quarterback's tendency to go off the page often leads to turnovers.

The Jets are second in the league in yards allowed (299), but placed LB Antwan Barnes on injured reserve after his knee buckled in Monday's victory over the Falcons. Barnes had two sacks while leading the club with 12 quarterback hits.

LINE: The Jets opened as 1-point home dogs. The total opened at 40 and is up to 41.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with wind blowing across the field at 7 mph.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Pittsburgh (+5.0) - New York (+3.5) + home field (-3.0) = Jets -4.5

TRENDS:
* Home team is 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last five games in Week 6.
* Under is 4-0 in Steelers last four vs. AFC.

Carolina Panthers at Minnesota Vikings (-1, 44)

The Panthers routed the New York Giants 38-0 in Week 3 behind QB Cam Newton's best game of the season, but they were unable to maintain that momentum after their bye week. Newton hasn't been much of a factor in the run game and Carolina has only two rushing touchdowns.

The Minnesota Vikings don't know who will be their quarterback on Sunday. Regardless of who starts this week, it's likely to be Freeman's job soon enough after he signed a prorated $3 million deal following his release in Tampa Bay.

LINE: The Vikes opened -1. The total opened 44.5 and is down to 44.

WEATHER: N/A

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Carolina (+3.0) - Minnesota (+4.5) + home field (-3.0) = Vikings -1.5

TRENDS:
* Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Panthers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a bye week.
* Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5, 41)

The Kansas City Chiefs will try to keep alive one streak while ending another when they host the rival Oakland Raiders on Sunday. One of three remaining unbeatens in the NFL, the Chiefs are aiming for their first 6-0 start since they opened the 2003 season with nine consecutive wins. However, they have lost six straight home games against Oakland and six of the past eight meetings overall.

Raiders QB Terrelle Pryor was 18-for-23 for 221 yards and a pair of touchdowns against San Diego and has completed 72.5 percent of his passes without throwing an interception in his last two games.

LINE: The Chiefs opened -9.5. The total opened 40.5 and is up to 41.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with clear skies. Wind will blow from E at 7 mph.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Oakland (+5.5) - Kansas City (-2.5) + home field (-3.0) = Chiefs -11

TRENDS:
* Underdog is 11-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings.
* Raiders are 7-0 ATS in their last seven meetings in Kansas City.
* Chiefs are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. AFC West.

St. Louis Rams at Houston Texans (-7.5, 42)

Rams QB Sam Bradford is coming off a three-touchdown performance against Jacksonville and has thrown for 1,315 yards and 10 scores. St. Louis ranks 29th in the NFL in rushing offense and team leader Daryl Richardson (162 yards) averages a paltry 2.9 yards per carry but rookie Zac Stacy impressed with 78 yards against the Jaguars in his first career start.

Quarterback Matt Schaub is experiencing a miserable stretch and might need a strong rebound performance to retain his job when the Texans host the Rams Sunday. Schaub has thrown a pick-six interception in four consecutive games – the first NFL player to ever do so – and his struggles have been magnified by a three-game losing streak.

LINE: The Texans opened -6.5 and are now -7.5. The total opened 43 and is down to 42.

WEATHER: N/A

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: St. Louis (+6.5) - Houston (+1.0) + home field (-3.0) = Texans -8.5

TRENDS:
* Rams are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Texans are 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Over is 4-1 in Rams last five games overall.

Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills (+6, 41.5)

Cincinnati's stellar defensive performance last week overshadowed another mediocre effort by quarterback Andy Dalton and the offense, which has managed one TD in two games.

Buffalo seeks its third straight home win behind the well-traveled Thaddeus Lewis, whose only career start came in the 2012 regular-season finale, when he threw for 204 yards with one touchdown and one interception.

LINE: The Bengals opened -9.5 and are now -6. The total opened 42 and is down to 41.5.

WEATHER: There is a 35 percent chance of rain in the forecast. Wind will blow across the field at 7 mph.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Cincinnati (-2.0) + Buffalo (+7.0) + home field (-3.0) = Bengals -6.0

TRENDS:
* Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings.
* Bengals are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Under is 4-0 in Bills last four games following a ATS loss

Detroit Lions at Cleveland Browns (+1, 44)

Detroit enters Week 6 tied with the Chicago Bears for the top spot in the NFC North after suffering a 22-9 loss at division rival Green Bay last Sunday. Defensive end Ziggy Ansah leads all NFL rookies with 3.5 sacks.

Cleveland has been one of the surprise teams in the league in the early going, reeling off three consecutive victories after losing its first two games. The Browns, who share first place in the AFC North with the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals, rallied from an early 10-point deficit and scored the final 20 points en route to a 37-24 triumph over Buffalo in Week 5.

LINE: The Browns opened +3 and have been bet up to +1. The total opened at 46 and is down to 44.

WEATHER: There is a 25 percent chance of rain. Wind will blow toward the East endzone at 6 mph.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Detroit (-1.0) + Cleveland (+3.0) + home field (-3.0) = Lions -1.0

TRENDS:
* Lions are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.
* Under is 4-1 in Lions last five games on grass.
* Browns are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sunday's NFL Week 6 Betting Cheat Sheet Late Action

Tennessee Titans at Seattle Seahawks (-13.5, 40.5)

The Titans are trying to get running back Chris Johnson (294 yards) untracked after he had just 38 yards on 25 carries over the past two games against the New York Jets and Kansas City Chiefs. Tennessee is 1-1 on the road and is one game behind Indianapolis in the AFC South.

The Seattle Seahawks are nearly invincible at home and seek their 11th consecutive victory at CenturyLink Field when they face the Tennessee Titans on Sunday. NFC West-leading Seattle has won this season’s two home games against San Francisco and Jacksonville by a combined 54 points and thrives while playing in perhaps the top home-field environment in the league.

LINE: The line opened Seattle -13.5. The total is currently 40.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-50s with wind blowing toward the S endzone at 4 mph.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Tennessee (+1.0) - Seattle (-8.0) + home field (-3.0) = Seahawks -12.0

TRENDS:
* Underdog is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Seahawks are 13-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Titans are 2-9-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos (-26, 53)

The Jacksonville Jaguars have won the last three meetings with the Denver Broncos, but that seems like ancient history as the teams prepare for what is expected to be a lopsided contest Sunday in Denver.

Denver has won 16 straight regular-season games after a 51-48 shootout at Dallas last week. Peyton Manning (1,884 passing yards, 20 TDs) has the offense moving at a record clip, having scored 230 points through five games - the most in NFL history.

LINE: The line opened Broncos -27.5 and is now -26. The total opened 51.5 and is now up to 53.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with partly cloudy skies.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Jacksonville (+10.5) - Denver (-9.5) + home field (-3.0) = Broncos -23

TRENDS:
* Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Denver.
* Jaguars are 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall.

New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots (-1, 50.5)

New Orleans is one of three undefeated teams in the NFL after passing a big test at Chicago a week ago. The Saints, who have their own star tight end in Jimmy Graham -- who leads the league with 593 receiving yards and ranks third in the NFL in total offense.

The Pats got back wide receiver Danny Amendola in last week's 13-6 setback but he caught just four passes and looked rusty as New England failed to score a touchdown for the first time since a 16-9 loss to the Jets in 2009.

LINE: The Pats opened -1. The total opened 49.5 and is up to 50.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-60s under clear skies.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: New Orleans (-6.0) - New England (-5.5) + home field (-3.0) = Patriots -2.5

TRENDS:
* Saints are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Over is 9-2 in Saints last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Patriots are 28-12-1 ATS in their last 41 games following a S.U. loss.

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-10.5, 41)

With Arizona adding quarterback Carson Palmer to the mix in the offseason, it was expected that the Cardinals' passing game would improve dramatically over years past. That has yet to happen, however. The Cardinals rank 22nd in passing yardage per game and Palmer has struggled to find the open man.

The San Francisco 49ers are back to their dominant selves following back-to-back one-sided losses last month. San Francisco has won seven of the last eight meetings, including a 27-13 decision in their previous encounter Dec. 30.

LINE: The 49ers opened -11 and are now -10.5. The total opened 41.5 and is down to 41.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with clear and sunny skies.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Arizona (+3.0) - San Francisco (-4.0) + home field (-3.0) = 49ers -10

TRENDS:
* Cardinals are 2-7 ATS in their last nine meetings.
* 49ers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games in October.
* Over is 12-4 in 49ers last 16 games overall.

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-5.5, 52)

Washington is looking for its first divisional victory and emerged from the dregs of the winless with a 24-14 triumph at Oakland in Week 4. The Redskins surrendered an average of 32.7 points in their first three games but tightened things up in the victory over Oakland, holding the Raiders to 298 yards while forcing three turnovers.

Dallas is tied for first place in the unimpressive NFC East and is staring at two straight divisional opponents with a trip to Philadelphia scheduled for Week 7. The Cowboys proved they could hang with anyone offensively last week, and Tony Romo found a third receiver in Terrance Williams (151 yards, one touchdown) to go along with Dez Bryant and tight end Jason Witten and give the offense another dimension.

LINE: The Cowboys opened -4.5 and have been bet up to -5.5. The total opened 53 and is down to 52.

WEATHER: N/A

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Washington (+2.5) - Dallas (-2.0) + home field (-3.0) = Cowboys -7.5

TRENDS:
* Redskins are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 meetings.
* Cowboys are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 vs. NFC.
* Over is 20-8 in Cowboys last 28 home games.