11-10-13

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Sunday's NFL Week 10 betting cheat sheet: Early action

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (+1, 45)

The Cincinnati Bengals will have had nine full days to stew over a difficult loss when they visit the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday for a big AFC North matchup. A safety in overtime was the difference in Cincinnati's 22-20 loss at Miami on Halloween night, a setback that also saw the Bengals lose another starter on defense in standout tackle Geno Atkins to an ACL tear. The Ravens can close within a game in the loss column with a victory on Sunday.

However, the defending Super Bowl champs have been sinking since a 3-2 start, dropping three in a row, including a 24-18 decision at Cleveland last Sunday. It marked the fifth time this season that Baltimore - which ranked 10th in the league in scoring last year - has been held to 20 points or fewer. This contest begins a string in which the Ravens play four of five games at home, where they have won 18 of their last 21 games dating back to 2010.

LINE: The Bengals have held steady as a one-point dog, with the total currently 45.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-50s with wind blowing across the length of the field at 13 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Cincinnati (-3.5) + Baltimore (+3.0) - home field (-3.0) = Bengals -3.5
TRENDS:

* Bengals are 6-0 ATS in their last six games on fieldturf.
* Ravens are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. teams with winning records.
* Under is 10-1 in Baltimore's last 11 games after allowing fewer than 90 rushing yards in their previous outing.

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (PICK, 52.5)

Detroit stars Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson put on quite a display against the Dallas Cowboys last week, with the former passing for 488 yards and the latter accounting for a team-record 329 of them. Johnson fell seven yards shy of the NFL's single-game record set on Nov. 26, 1989, by Flipper Anderson. Stafford reached the 15,000-yard plateau faster than any quarterback in league history, doing so in his 53rd career game.

The Bears received some surprising news Thursday as quarterback Jay Cutler declared himself fit to play, improving what has already been a potent and versatile offense. Running back Matt Forte has scored nine touchdowns - six rushing - in 11 games against the Lions. Wide receiver Brandon Marshall enters Sunday's contest with a streak of five straight home games with a touchdown.

LINE: The Bears opened as a 2.5-point dog, but the line has since been bet up to a pick. The total is 52.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-40s with wind blowing across the width of the field at 5 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Detroit (-1.5) - Chicago (-2.5) - home field (-3.0) = Bears -4
TRENDS:

* Lions are 2-12-2 ATS in their last 16 Week 10 games.
* Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. teams with winning records.
* Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.

Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers (-1, 47)

Eagles quarterback Foles, who threw for an NFL record-tying seven touchdowns last week, has 13 touchdowns and zero interceptions this season. LeSean McCoy leads the NFL with 777 rushing yards, but he has run for 60 yards or fewer in four of his last five games. The Eagles’ defense has recovered from a rough start to the season, as Philadelphia has yielded 21 points or fewer in five straight games.

A collarbone injury has shelved Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers for at least four weeks. Fortunately, the Packers finally have a running game they can depend on. Rookie bruiser Eddie Lacy has rushed for 545 yards since Oct. 1 – the highest total in the NFL - including a career-high 150 yards last week. Green Bay expects to have Clay Matthews back on Sunday after the All-Pro linebacker missed the last four games with a thumb injury.

LINE: Green Bay opened as a 2.5-point fave, but the line has moved to -1. The total has slipped from 48 to 47.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-40s with wind blowing diagonally out of the NW at 9 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Philadelphia (+1.5) + Green Bay (-1.0) + home field (-3.0) = Packers -5.5
TRENDS:

* Eagles are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games on grass.
* Packers are 5-0 ATS against teams with losing records.
* Under is 5-0 in the last five head-to-head meetings.

St. Louis Rams at Indianapolis Colts (-10, 44)

The Colts posted their second consecutive victory in stirring fashion, overcoming an 18-point third-quarter deficit to post a 27-24 triumph over Houston last week. T.Y. Hilton made his presence known with veteran wideout Reggie Wayne sidelined with a torn ACL by reeling in a career-best seven catches for 121 yards and franchise-tying three receiving touchdowns against the Texans.

Indianapolis leads the AFC South by two games over Tennessee, which handed St. Louis its third straight loss last week and faces the Colts on Thursday. With quarterback Sam Bradford's season also felled by a torn ACL, the Rams have shifted their focus toward Zac Stacy. The rookie followed up his 134-yard performance in a 14-9 loss to Seattle on Oct. 28 by rushing for his first two career touchdowns to highlight his 27-carry, 127-yard effort versus the Titans.

LINE: Indy opened -10.5 and is now -10. The total opened at 43 and is up to 44.
WEATHER: N/A
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: St. Louis (+6.0) + Indianapolis (-4.0) + home field (-3.0) = Colts -13
TRENDS:

* Rams are 8-2 ATS vs. teams with winning records.
* Colts are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games on fieldturf.
* Over is 7-3 in St. Louis' last 10 games following an SU loss.

Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons (+4, 45)

Seattle running back Marshawn Lynch is excelling after racking up a season-high 125 yards against Tampa Bay to move up to second in the NFL with 726 rushing yards. Quarterback Russell Wilson has thrown multiple touchdown passes in four of the past five games and is also doing damage with his feet (375 rushing yards). Cornerback Richard Sherman and safety Earl Thomas are tied for the NFL lead with four interceptions.

Standout receiver Roddy White (hamstring, ankle) could be back after a three-game absence to help alleviate Ryan’s troubles. White has just 14 receptions for 129 yards in an injury-prone campaign after six consecutive seasons of more than 80 catches and 1,200 yards. Atlanta could use some help from a defense that has allowed at least 23 points in each game.

LINE: Seattle opened as a 5.5-point fave and is now -4. The total opened 44 and is up to 45.
WEATHER: N/A
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Seattle (-6.0) + Atlanta (+4.0) - home field (-3.0) = Seahawks -7
TRENDS:

* Seahawks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS loss.
* Falcons are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games after scoring fewer than 15 points in their previous outing.
* Under is 10-1 in Atlanta's last 11 games in November.

Oakland Raiders at New York Giants (-7, 44)

Raiders quarterback Terrelle Pryor leads the team in rushing with 485 yards and is 45 yards shy of passing Rich Gannon for the club record for a quarterback. Where Pryor struggles is in the passing game, with four interceptions and no touchdowns in the past two contests, and he could have his running attempts limited due to a knee sprain.

One of the reasons the New York defense was able to be so effective the last two games is because Eli Manning and the offense weren’t putting it into bad positions with turnovers. The former Super Bowl MVP threw 15 interceptions in the first six weeks but was not picked off in either of the two victories while focusing on shorter passing attempts.

LINE: New York has held firm as a 9.5-point fave, with the total up half a point to 44.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-50s with cloudy skies and wind blowing across the width of the field at 9 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Oakland (+6.0) - New York (+2.5) + home field (-3.0) = Giants -6.5
TRENDS:

* Raiders are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a bye week.
* Giants are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games in Week 10.
* The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-13, 41)

Jacksonville comes out of its bye week with little room for optimism. The offense averages a pitiful 10.8 points per game, and what small glimmer of success the Jaguars have enjoyed was wiped out when receiver Justin Blackmon was suspended indefinitely for violating the league's substance abuse policy. The defense hasn't been much better and ranks last in the league against the run, allowing 161.8 yards per game.

Tennessee struggled through a three-game losing streak against tough competition in October, but two of those defeats came with quarterback Jake Locker on the shelf. Locker has been solid when healthy, completing 61.5 percent of his passes for 1,232 yards with eight touchdowns and three interceptions. The Titans have been strong against the pass but have a tough time stopping the run, so grabbing an early lead will be key.
LINE: Tennessee opened -13. The total has remained at 41.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-50s with wind blowing across the length of the field at 6 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Jacksonville (+10.0) - Tennessee (0) + home field (-3.0) = Titans -13
TRENDS:

* Jaguars are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games.
* Titans are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. AFC foes.
* Under is 10-2-1 in Jacksonville's last 13 games against the AFC South.

Buffalo Bills at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, 43.5)

Buffalo is in last place in the AFC East after falling to Kansas City 23-13 last week. The Bills held a surprising 10-3 lead at the half but surrendered a pair of back-breaking defensive scores after the break. Rookie Jeff Tuel was picked off in the end zone and Sean Smith returned the interception 100 yards to tie the game and the Bills lost a contest that they had totally dominated statistically.

Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is on pace to throw for the most yards of his career but that's a testament to a team that has been playing from behind all season. The once-proud Steeler defense allowed New England's Tom Brady to break out of a major slump to throw for 432 yards and four touchdowns last week. Pittsburgh has also been gouged on the ground all season long allowing 131.3 yards a game which ranks 31st in the league.

LINE: The Steelers opened -3.5 and are now -3. The total opened at 43 and is up to 43.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-40s with wind blowing across the width of the field at 10 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Buffalo (+4.5) - Pittsburgh (+4.5) + home field (-3.0) = Steelers -3
TRENDS:

* Bills are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following an SU loss.
* Steelers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss.
* Under is 10-2 in Pittsburgh's last 12 home games vs. teams with losing road records.

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Sunday's NFL Week 10 betting cheat sheet: Late action

Click here for Sunday's early games.

Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers (-5.5, 43)

Carolina's offense has flourished of late, topping 30 points in four straight games and five of the past six. Cam Newton has returned to the dynamic form he showed as a rookie, completing 64.4 percent of his passes for 1,801 yards and 13 TDs and rushing for 251 yards and four scores. The defense has provided a big assist, though, as the Panthers have forced at least one turnover in every game and have recorded three or more takeaways four times.

The defending NFC champions had a couple of early stumbles in ugly losses to Seattle and Indianapolis, but they've been nothing short of dominant while winning five straight. The 49ers rank last in the league in passing, but they've rolled up an NFL-best 153 yards per game on the ground and have limited their mistakes during the winning streak. The defense has been solid against the run and the pass and has forced 13 turnovers the past five games.
LINE: The 49ers opened -6.5 but are now-5.5. The total opened at 41.5 and is up to 43.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-50s with partly cloudy skies.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Carolina (-2.0) + San Francisco (-6.5) + home field (-3.0) = 49ers -7.5
TRENDS:

* Panthers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games.
* 49ers are 23-7-1 ATS in their last 31 games on grass.
* Over is 12-3 in San Francisco's last 15 games.

Houston Texans at Arizona Cardinals (-3, 42)

Houston was enduring a disappointing season on the field before it began to worry about its head coach, and squandering a 24-6 lead with 4:25 left in the third quarter of last week's loss to Indianapolis represented a new low point. The Texans rank first in the NFL in passing defense, surrendering an average of 158 yards, but allowed three passing touchdowns in the final 15:05 to watch its lead evaporate.

Arizona went into its bye week on a high note with a 27-13 victory over the Atlanta Falcons in Week 8. The Cardinals were most effective against the Falcons in the secondary, intercepting Matt Ryan four times, and got a strong October from rookie safety Tyrann Mathieu, who was named the NFC’s defensive Rookie of the Month. Mathieu and Rashad Johnson combined for three picks from the free safety position against Atlanta.

LINE: The Cardinals are 3-point faves after opening -3.5. The total opened 43 and is up to 43.5.
WEATHER: N/A
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Houston (+3.5) - Arizona (+2.5) + home field (-3.0) = Cardinals -4
TRENDS:

* Texans are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games.
* Cardinals are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. teams with losing records.
* Over is 30-11 in Arizona's last 41 games after finishing with fewer than 150 passing yards in their previous outing.

Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers (+7, 58)

The bye week did not provide a much-needed respite for the Denver Broncos, who lost their head coach for perhaps the rest of the season when John Fox underwent a surgical procedure to repair a heart valve. Quarterback Peyton Manning, who's often been likened to a coach on the field, has thrown for 2,919 yards and 29 touchdown passes so Denver is not expecting a dip in its offensive efficiency in Fox's absence.

Philip Rivers is experience a career revival in Mike McCoy's offense following a pair a pair of turnover-riddled seasons, throwing for 17 TDs against seven interceptions and posting a 106.5 passer rating - third best in the league. Ryan Mathews had back-to-back 100-yard games, but he was limited to 34 on seven carries at Washington and San Diego failed to score from the 1-yard line on three tries in the final seconds of regulation.

LINE: The Broncos opened as 7-point road faves. The total opened at 56 and is up to 58.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with sunny skies and wind blowing across the length of the field at 4 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Denver (-8.0) - San Diego (-1.0) - home field (-3.0) = Broncos -4
TRENDS:

* Broncos are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. AFC West opponents.
* Chargers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following an SU loss.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL betting weather report: Sunday's forecasts

Find out how weather will impact your NFL bets for Sunday's matchups:

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (+1, 45)

Wind will blow toward the E endzone at 15 mph. Temperatures will be in the mid-50s with partly cloudy skies.

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (Pick, 53)

Skies will be clear and temperatures will be in the low-40s. Wind will blow across the field at 7 mph.

Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers (+1, 47)

Temperatures will be in the low-40s and wind will blow across the field at 7 mph.

Oakland Raiders at New York Giants (-7.5, 44)

Temperatures will be in the high-50s and wind will blow across the field at 15 mph.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-13, 41)

Skies will be clear and temperatures will be in the mid-50s. Wind will blow toward the S endzone at 6 mph.

Buffalo Bills at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, 43.5)

Wind will blow across the field at 16 mph and temperatures will be in the mid-40s.

Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers (-5.5, 43)

Temperatures will be in the high-50s with partly cloudy skies.

Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers (+7, 58)

Wind will blow toward the E endzone at 6 mph. Temperatures will be in the high-60s.

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Essential betting tidbits for Week 10 of the NFL

We dug up these vital betting tidbits for some of Sunday's NFL action that will help you make the right call before kickoff.

- The Bengals defense gives up 18.4 points per game, but has now lost All-Pro defensive tackle Geno Atkins for the season. The total is currently at 45.

- The last three times these teams have met in Baltimore, the Ravens have gone 3-0 straight up, outscoring the Bengals by a combined score of 88-44.

- Reggie Bush gashed the Bears for 139 yards back in Week 4 and the Bears are ranked 29th against the run this season.

- Jay Cutler returns under center for the Bears since leaving in Week 7 with a groin injury. They average 28.6 points per game with Cutler in the lineup and have beaten the Lions five straight times at Soldier Field.

- Nick Foles has not been intercepted in 118 attempts this season and the Packers have only picked off QBs five times through eight games.

- Seneca Wallace is only the fourth QB to start for the Packers since 1992. He is 6-15 as a starter and has a career completion percentage of 59.1.

- Since rookie sensation Zac Stacey has joined the Rams backfield, he is averaging 113.2 yards per game, including 307 yards in the past 2 games. The Colts allow 124.9 rushing yards per game.

- The Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games against teams with a losing record.

- Despite the Seahawks' strong start to the season, they are just 1-4 ATS in the last five games.

- Matt Ryan been picked off seven times for the Falcons in the last two games and the Seahawks are tied for the league lead in interceptions with 13.

- Darren McFadden has been ruled out for the Raiders this week, who are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.

- The Giants rushing attack will look to get a boost to their as they welcome back RB Andre Brown, who broke his leg in the pre-season. The Giants only average 69.9 yards rushing per game this season, but they have out-rushed opponents the last 3 games and gone 3-0 ATS in that span.

- The Titans rushed for 198 yards last week versus the Rams. The Jaguars give up a league-worst 161.8 rushing yards per game.

- Both teams score a combined 32.4 points per game and the under is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings. The total is currently at 41.

- First round pick EJ Manuel will be back at QB for the Bills this week. The Bills ware 3-2 ATS with Manuel under center this season.

- The Steelers have given up 197 yards rushing to Oakland and England in the last two weeks. The Bills rank seventh in rushing.

- During the Panthers four game winning streak, Cam Newton has completed 74.8 percent of his passes and they are 4-0 ATS in that span.

- The 49ers are on a six-game winning streak and are 6-0 ATS over that stretch. The Niners have out-rushed the opponent in each game, but the Panthers own the second ranked rush defense this season.

- The Texans will try to avoid the longest losing streak in team history, and will have to do so without star running back Arian Foster and head coach Gary Kubiak. They are 1-7 ATS this season.

- The Cardinals are 3-1 ATS at home this season and 5-0 ATS in the last five games against teams with a losing record. The Cards are currently favored by a field goal.

- The Broncos are 8-0 O/U and are averaging a league best 42.9 points per game, the total is currently at 58 for their matchup against the San Diego Chargers.

- Chargers head coach and former Broncos offensive co-ordinator Mike McCoy has brought the magic back to Philip Rivers' game. Rivers averages 309.1 passing yards per game and the Broncos pass defense is ranked 30th in the league.

- The Cowboys have been up and down this year with 5-4 record, but are a league-best 7-2 ATS this season. Dez Bryant is expected to play despite a back injury.

- The Saints are 4-0 ATS at home this year and have only given up 12 points per game in that span behind Rob Ryan's defense.

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Where the action is: Sunday's NFL line moves

The second half of the NFL season is in full swing and news of a few key players that could return from injury has odds on the move. We talk to Aron Black of Bet365 about the action coming in on some of Sunday's matchups and where lines could close come kickoff:

Buffalo Bills at Pittsburgh Steelers - Open: -3.5, Move: -2.5

News that EJ Manuel gets the start for the Bills had bettors backing Buffalo. But can the rook turn the Bills' season around? The AFC East cellar dwellers were 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS with Manuel under center this season.

"The 3.5 opener didn’t last long before being a juiced 3," Black tells Covers. "Pittsburgh struggles against the run, and with RB’s CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson coming at them, the Steelers' defense may struggle with the run again this week. Action so far is split down the middle."

Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons - Open: +6, Move: +4.5

The Seahawks narrowly escaped their last two games with victories. They required a comeback to defeat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and barely beat the St. Louis Rams. They have won four-straight games, but are 1-4 ATS in their last five.

"Atlanta WR Roddy White is upgraded to probable, and that has moved the line, but the line was already moving before that," confirms Black. "The running game has been one of the main pillars of Seattle's success, but injuries to the offensive line are causing concern for those looking to back them away from home at a desperate Falcons team. Action still likes the Seahawks at about a 2-to-1 clip ATS, but SU sees a little more on the Falcons."

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears - Open: +1, Move: Pick

Another player set to make a return is Bears QB Jay Cutler. News of such an upgrade had bettors backing the Bears, but injury concerns on the defensive side of the ball have them treading lightly.

"The line has bounced back and forth from small-fave Detroit to small-fave Chicago, but it should end up as a Pick or slight Bears fave," says Black. "Action likes the Bears at a 2-to-1 clip."

Black also confirms that bettors like the Over in this matchup. The total opened 52 and has been bet up to 52.5.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL Prop Shop: Week 10's best player prop bets
By SEAN MURPHY

Covers Expert Sean Murphy opens the doors of the NFL Prop Shop in Week 10, giving you his favorite player prop picks for Sunday's action.

Most passing yards

Andy Dalton (Cincinnati Bengals) vs. Joe Flacco (Baltimore Ravens)

I'm having a tough time believing in Joe Flacco and the Ravens offense right now. He's thrown for more than 270 yards only three times in eight games this season and now faces a Cincinnati defense that is allowing only 5.9 yards per pass play.

Andy Dalton threw three interceptions last week in Miami, but still managed to rack up 338 yards passing. He's now thrown for over 300 yards in four consecutive games. The Ravens pass defense has been pretty awful this year, giving up north of seven yards per pass attempt.

Take: Dalton

Cam Newton (Carolina Panthers) vs. Colin Kaepernick (San Francisco 49ers)

Colin Kaepernick has been held to a grand total of 363 passing yards over his last two games. Keep in mind, he's only thrown 37 passes over that stretch. I expect to see the 49ers take a more aggressive approach as they return home to host the Panthers. As good as the Panthers defense has been, I'm not sure they'll have an answer for Vernon Davis or Anquan Boldin.

Cam Newton has learned to scale things back to the benefit of the Panthers offense. While he's thrown for fewer than 250 yards in four straight games, he's tossed seven touchdowns compared to only two interceptions. Of course, those two interceptions both came in last week's game, so perhaps we'll see Carolina go even more conservative against an opportunistic 49ers defense.

Take: Kaepernick

Most rushing yards

Reggie Bush (Detroit Lions) vs. Matt Forte (Chicago Bears)

The common line of thinking here is that Matt Forte will see his workload decrease with the return of QB Jay Cutler. Forte ran the ball 25 times for 125 yards in Monday's upset win in Green Bay. I don't expect the Bears to stray too far from their feature back Sunday.

The last time these two NFC North rivals met, Cutler threw the ball 47 times in a 40-32 loss. Forte ran only 14 times in that game. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out Chicago's winning formula this Sunday.

Reggie Bush ran for 139 yards against the Bears in that Week 4 matchup, but hasn't had a 100-yard rushing performance since. That was in Detroit. The Bears have been much better against the run at home this season, allowing just 3.3 yards per rush.

Take: Forte

Most pass receptions

Denarius Moore (Oakland Raiders) vs. Hakeem Nicks (New York Giants)

With the Raiders struggling against the pass (allowing 7.4 yards per pass attempt this season), I'm expecting a big day from Eli Manning and in turn Hakeem Nicks. Nicks had a team-high 12 targets against the Eagles two weeks ago. He's hauled in at least seven catches in two of the last four games.

Denarius Moore has been the Raiders most consistent receiver, but I expect him to face blanket coverage this week. He's more of a big-play threat than a volume guy. He's topped out at five catches over the last five games.

Take: Nicks

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sunday Night Football betting: Cowboys at Saints

Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints (-6.5, 53.5)

The Dallas Cowboys have had trouble away from home and face a difficult road test when they visit the New Orleans Saints on Sunday night. New Orleans is undefeated at home and leads the NFC South by one game, but is coming off an ugly offensive performance in a 26-20 defeat at the New York Jets last week. The game features a juicy subplot - Saints defensive coordinator Rob Ryan gets to face the team that fired him from the same position after last season.

Dallas owns a one-game lead atop the NFC East following a last-minute, come-from-behind victory over the Minnesota Vikings last week. It marked another close call for the Cowboys, who have lost three of their four games by a combined five points. Dallas has dropped two straight and seven of eight against the Saints, including a 34-31 overtime home loss in December 2012 - a game in which New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees threw for 446 yards and three touchdowns.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC

LINE: The Saints opened at -7 and have been bet down to -6.5. The total opened at 52.5 and is up to 53.5.

WEATHER: N/A.

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (5-4): Tony Romo threw for 337 yards and a pair of touchdowns last week to rally the Cowboys, his third 300-yard game in the past five as the running game continues to struggle. Running back DeMarco Murray returned from a two-game injury absence but had only four carries for 31 yards as the Cowboys ran the ball a franchise-low nine times. Romo had a huge game in last season's loss to New Orleans, throwing for 416 yards and four touchdown passes. Dez Bryant had nine receptions for a career-best 224 yards and a pair of scores in that game, but he missed practice Wednesday due to back tightness and was limited in Thursday's session.

ABOUT THE SAINTS (6-2): New Orleans has lost two of three following a 5-0 start and part of the problem is an inability to run the ball while stopping the opponent from doing so. The Saints managed 41 yards on 13 carries and were gashed for 198 yards on the ground by the Jets. "We've been a little bit lopsided," New Orleans coach Sean Payton said. "Pass protection becomes more manageable when you're running the football." Tight end Jimmy Graham has two TD catches in four of his last five games despite battling a foot injury, and the passing game should be helped by the return of running back Darren Sproles, who suffered a concussion last week.

TRENDS:

* Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Saints are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games versus a team with a winning record.
* Under is 11-4 in Cowboys last 15 road games.
* Over is 4-0 in Saints last 4 games on fieldturf.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Brees and Romo rank 2-3 in the league with 21 and 20 TD passes, respectively.

2. Dallas is 11-0 when Murray has at least 18 carries.

3. Three-time Pro Bowl LB Jonathan Vilma (knee) was placed on season-ending injured reserve by the Saints just three days after making his season debut.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CFL Playoffs: What bettors need to know

Montreal Aouettes at Hamilton Tiger-Cats (-3, 52)

The Hamilton Tiger-Cats enter the playoffs on a high note as they prepare to host the Montreal Alouettes in the East Semifinal on Sunday. Hamilton won four of its last five games to finish the regular season 8-2 against East Division opponents, including two wins in three contests against Montreal. Tiger-Cats quarterback Henry Burris led the league with 4,925 passing yards and running back C.J. Gable was named East Division Most Outstanding Rookie.

The Alouettes season began with Anthony Calvillo at quarterback and Dan Hawkins as coach. With Hawkins fired and Calvillo injured, Montreal finished the season with a very different look under new pivot Troy Smith, but defense remains its most reliable asset. Alouettes linebacker Chip Cox was named East Division Most Outstanding Defensive Player after leading the league with 114 tackles and adding 12 sacks and four interceptions for a defense that allowed a league-low 88.4 rushing yards per game.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, TSN

ABOUT THE ALOUETTES (8-10): Smith has yet to reach 1,000 passing yards in the CFL and his inexperience shows in his accuracy: a 60-for-114 completion rate with five interceptions. Smith has plenty of targets available, including S.J. Green, Arland Bruce and rookie Duron Carter, who finished the regular season with 909 receiving yards despite making his CFL debut in August. Montreal’s defense was tied for the league-lead in interceptions with 24, with a league-best seven caught by cornerback Geoff Tisdale.

ABOUT THE TIGER-CATS (10-8): Gable recorded 1,380 yards from scrimmage despite missing time early on due to injuries. Three Hamilton receivers - Bakari Grant, Andy Fantuz and Greg Ellingson - finished with at least 800 receiving yards. Mark Beswick was named Most Outstanding Special Teams Player with a league-high 24 special teams tackles, while linebacker Brandon Isaac has four sacks since joining the team mid-season.

TRENDS:

* Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Hamilton.
* Alouettes are 2-5 ATS in their last seven meetings in Hamilton.
* Under is 10-4 in Alouettes last 14 vs. East.
* Tiger-Cats are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Hamilton KR Brandon Banks returned a missed field goal 107 yards for a touchdown in the last game between the Tiger-Cats and the Alouettes.

2. Alouettes RB Tyrell Sutton rushed for 185 yards in the last two games against the Tiger-Cats.

3. Hamilton was 6-3 playing its home games at Alumni Stadium in Guelph this season.


BC Lions at Saskatchewan Roughriders (-4, 51.5)

Quarterback Travis Lulay and running back Andrew Harris have given the BC Lions hope heading into Sunday’s West Semifinal at the Saskatchewan Roughriders. Lulay returned to action briefly in the final regular-season game, taking 13 snaps to test his injured shoulder and completing 3-of-4 passes while adding a 1-yard touchdown run. Harris finished the season two rushing yards short of 1,000 after recording 102 in his last game, one week after Stefan Logan ran for 121 yards for BC.

BC will need every facet of its offense in top condition against a stingy Roughriders' defense that recorded 57 sacks, 24 interceptions and allowed a league-low 20 passing touchdowns. Saskatchewan’s defensive line of John Chick, Tearrius George, Ricky Foley and trade addition Alex Hall have 30 sacks between them. Roughriders quarterback Darian Durant (4,154 passing yards) and running back Kory Sheets (1,598 rushing yards) were both rested for the final game of the regular season and are healthy heading into the playoffs.

TV: 4:30 p.m. ET, TSN

ABOUT THE LIONS (11-7): Linebacker Adam Bighill led the team with 92 tackles and nine sacks despite missing a couple weeks with a sprained ankle. Bighill and cornerback Cord Parks (six interceptions) form the backbone of a defense that limited opponents to 245 passing yards per game. Slotback Nick Moore established himself as one of the league’s top receivers with his first 1,000-yard season, totalling 1,105 receiving yards.

ABOUT THE ROUGHRIDERS (11-7): Three Saskatchewan receivers - Chris Getzlaf, Weston Dressler and Taj Smith - finished the regular season with at least 1,000 receiving yards. All-time receiving leader Geroy Simon, who spent the majority of his career with the Lions before joining Saskatchewan last offseason, was limited to his lowest yard total since 2001, with 565 yards on 40 catches. Defensive back Dwight Anderson has 53 tackles and a team-leading five interceptions.

TRENDS:

* Under is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Saskatchewan.
* Lions are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 road games.
* Roughriders are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four Division Semifinals games.
* Over is 6-0 in Lions last six playoff games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Lions KR Tim Brown finished with 1,901 combined return yards - second in the league. Brown also scored one kick-return touchdown.

2. Roughriders LB Renauld Williams, who led the team with seven sacks before being injured, could return if Saskatchewan makes it to the Grey Cup final.

3. Saskatchewan was 6-3 at home during the regular season; BC was 3-6 on the road.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

English Breakfast: Premier League betting cheat sheet

A little bit more of an appetizing fixture list in the Barclay's Premier League Sunday. Newcastle heads to White Hart Lane hot after beating Chelsea 2-0 at home. But the biggest match of the weekend is Manchester United hosting Arsenal.

We talked to Aron Black of Bet365 about the action coming in on some of Sunday's fixtures.

Tottenham v Newcastle (-175, +333, +550)

Why bet Tottenham: Spurs own one of the best defenses in the league as the side has allowed just five goals on the season. They are coming off a lifeless 0-0 draw against Everton in their last effort and will look for a full three points this weekend to keep up with other clubs at the top of the table.

Key players out/doubtful: Nacer Chadli, Danny Rose, Emmanuel Adebayor

Why bet Newcastle: The Magpies bounced back from a gut-wrenching defeat in the Tyne-Wear Derby with an impressive 2-0 win over Chelsea last week. The victory vaulted them into the top 10 and it looks like they belong. Purchases they've made over the past few windows are starting to mesh well, including Yoan Gouffran, Moussa Sissoko and Mathieu Debuchy. This can be a very dangerous side.

Key players out/doubtful: Fabricio Coloccini, Massadio Haidara, Steven Taylor

2012-13 fixture result: Tottenham 2, Newcastle 1

Key betting note: Nine of Tottenham's 10 matches in the League this season have resulted in a scoreline under the 2.5 goal total.

Where the action is: "Bulk of the action in the FT market is on Spurs, but the Magpies do have some supporters willing to back them. This is a game that Spurs really should win to keep pace with the other Top 4 contenders, and given their fierce rivals have a tough match against Man United, it’s a good opportunity to possibly get one over on the Arsenal."

Sunderland v Manchester City (+800, +400, -250)

Why bet Sunderland: A victory over hated-rival Newcastle was supposed to turn the Black Cats season around. That didn't happen as the club lost 1-0 to Hull City last weekend. The team has played much better under new manager Gus Poyet and if not for Carlos Cuéllar's own goal early on against Hull, could have seen a much more positive result.

Key players out/doubtful: Andrea Dossena, Lee Cattermole

Why bet Manchester City: The Citizens put up a touchdown in a 7-0 thrashing of a poor Norwich side last weekend. The team has shown incredible highs and some mind-boggling lows in the early part of season. Still, when healthy, City features one of the most dangerous XI's in the league and a repeat of what they did to the Canaries is certainly in the realm of possibility.

Key players out/doubtful: Vincent Kompany, Stevan Jovetic, David Silva

2012-13 fixture result: Sunderland 1, Manchester City 0

Key betting note: The Black Cats have beaten City in three straight league games by a score of 1-0 at the Stadium of Light.

Manchester United v Arsenal (+130, +250, +230)

Why bet Manchester United: United has picked up the pieces from a very un-United start to the season and has won three of four with a draw mixed in. The Red Devils are currently eighth in the table and will look to climb higher with a victory over the Gunners. A 0-0 draw with Real Sociedad in Champions League midweek isn't the best result, but it does bode well for a defense that has finally kept an opponent off the scoresheet - something they have only done twice domestically.

Key players out/doubtful: Rafael, Darren Fletcher, Jonny Evans

Why bet Arsenal: This truly is a magical season for the North London club and harkens back to the Invincilbes side of 2003-04. They are top of the table and are coming off an impressive 1-0 victory over Borussia Dortmund in Champions League. MF Aaron Ramsey has been a revelation this season with six goals and four assists in the league.

Key players out/doubtful: Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, Lukas Podolski

2012-13 fixture result: Manchester United 2, Arsenal 1

Key betting note: United has six wins, two draws and one loss in its last nine matches versus Arsenal.

Where the action is: "Man United stirker Wayne Rooney has done his best to stoke the flames for this fixture by wondering whether Arsenal can hack the long season for a title tilt, and saying that we should ‘ ..wait to see where they are in March…’ as if the fixture needed anymore stoking. Action on the FT result is pretty split, but for a +230 dog, Arsenal see a fair amount of action, and rightfully so, they are possibly underpriced and I wouldn’t be surprised if the price on them shortens. Rooney is +650 to Score First and +200 Anytime, and for Arsenal, high scoring midfielder Aaron Ramsey, who has been in great form all season is +1000 First and +300 Anytime."

Swansea v Stoke (+100, +240, +333)

Why bet Swansea: The Swans were on the wrong end of a 1-0 scoreline in the Premier League's first ever Welsh Derby last week. The club has been the poster child for inconsistency this season but they will have get back into the winning column without star-playmaker Michu who is out with an injury.

Key players out/doubtful: Michu, Pablo Hernández, Michel Vorm

Why bet Stoke: On the plus side, the Potters got a point from a matchup with a tough Southampton side last week and will head to Wales fairly confident. On the other hand, their season has been incredibly underwhelming and it took a goal from their keeper to draw with the Saints last week. They all count though and the Potters need goals from anybody on the pitch.

Key players out/doubtful: Andy Wilkinson

2012-13 fixture result: Swansea 3, Stoke 1

Key betting note: The Potters have lost 10 of their previous 14 matches away from home.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFLBettingPicks
Kevin

2 UNIT = Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers - OVER 57 POINTS (-110)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.82 units)
The Broncos are the #1 team in the NFL offensively averaging 466 yards per game and 42.9 ppg. San Diego is averaging 403 yards per game (6th in NFL) and averaging 24 ppg. Defensively the Broncos are 24th in the NFL, and they are giving up 27.2 papg. The Chargers are 29th in the NFL and are giving up 21.8 papg. The Chargers also rank dead last (32nd) giving up 6.4 yards per play, which is not a good sign going against a Peyton Manning run offense. Both QBs have had great seasons and should be able to put up points against the 28th (San Diego) and 30th (Denver) ranked pass defenses. Road games haven't bothered Peyton and his no huddle offense, as the Broncos have put up 41, 51, and 33 points on the road. The OVER is a perfect 8-0 for Denver this year and 46-17-1 in their last 64 games overall. The OVER is also 34-16-1 in the Broncos last 51 vs AFC opponents. The OVER is 5-1 in the Chargers last 6 games following a loss, and 5-1 in their last 6 vs divisional opponents. The OVER is also 4-1 in these two teams last 5 meetings. I'll take the OVER again here with the Broncos as two good offenses go head to head

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DOC SPORTS

4 Unit Play. #109/#206 Take UNDER 47 - Philadelphia Eagles @ Green Bay Packers (Sunday 1 pm Fox) The spread on this game Monday afternoon was Green Bay -9, but with the injury to QB Aaron Rogers the line on this game has been lowered close to a ?pick'em?. QB Seneca Wallace did not play well in relief on the all-world quarterback, but I expect a better performance in this game from him since he has a week of practice under his belt. That being said, the Packers will have to alter their gameplan to be effective in this game and rely on their running game to keep the Eagles off the field. Nothing bad can be said about the Eagles and QB Nick Foles after their record-setting performance last week in Oakland. But there is just no way they will be able to duplicate that performance again on Sunday. Green Bay has gone under the posted total in four of their last five home games.

5 Unit Play. #125/#225 Take Dallas Cowboys +7 over New Orleans Saints (Sunday 8:30 pm NBC) The Cowboys are just 5-4 on the season but they have not been blown out in any of their four losses and thus getting around a touchdown is too good to pass up in this game. New Orleans is a completely different team when they play at the Superdome but they still have major holes on defense evident by their performance last week against the Jets. The Jets have one of the worst offenses in the league and Dallas has a good run/pass option and should be able to move the football on the Saints. New Orleans can light up the scoreboard put I fully expect a shootout and a cover by the Cowboys. Dallas is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

VEGAS SPORTS INFORMER

NFL FOOTBALL PLAYS
6 Unit Play. #220 Take San Francisco -6 over Carolina (4:05p.m., Sunday, Nov 10)
(Game of the Month)
Is it me or is nobody talking about the San Francisco 49ers! Since the 49ers lost to the Colts September 22 the 49ers offense is averaging 34.8ppg but their defense is only giving up an average of 12.2ppg. Since that loss the 49ers are a perfect 5-0 and the big part is that the 49ers are getting healthy. Carolina is also playing some good football and are coming to San Fran on a 4 game winning streak. Too bad the Panthers winning streak was against teams like Atlanta, Tampa Bay, St. Louis, and Minnesota. All of those teams have a combined 6 wins in all! The Panthers defense has been their surprise this season and their 'D' better be on their A game because the 49ers offense has been outstanding. The Panthers will have too much to handle with Frank Gore and Kaepernick on the ground and if the 49ers have success on the ground this game should be another San Fran home victory. The Panthers get the 49ers well rested and with a rested 49ers I see San Francisco winning this game by double-digits. San Francisco is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against NFC opponents and the 49ers are 4-0 ATS following a SU win.

2 Unit Play. #223 Take Over 57 ½ - Denver at San Diego (4:25p.m., Sunday, Nov 10)
Do you guys really want to know why! The Denver Broncos are a perfect 8-0 O/U in their last 8 games this season. Why stop something that has put cash in our wallets 8-straight games. Until a Denver game goes under I will play them over every time.

3 Unit Play. #226 Take New Orleans -6 ½ over Dallas (8:30p.m., Sunday, Nov 10 NBC)
How can you bet against the Saints at home! The Saints come home losing a horrible road game to the J.E.T.S and New Orleans have dropped 2 out of their last 3 games. I see Drew Brees and the Saints offense having a big game against the Cowboys defense and talking about defense what about the matchup between former Cowboys DC now Saints DC Rob Ryan going against the Boys Sunday night. Saints win big Sunday night at home and Brees has a big game threw the air. The Saints are 6-2 ATS following a SU loss and the Saints are also 20-6 ATS in their last 26 home games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ROBERT FERRINGO

SUNDAY NFL SELECTIONS

4-Unit Play. Take #226 New Orleans (-6.5) over Dallas (8 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 10)
Note: This is my NFL Game of the Week.

3-Unit Play. Take #220 San Francisco (-6) over Carolina (4 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 10)

2-Unit Play. Take #216 Baltimore (+1.5) over Cincinnati (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 10)

2-Unit Play. Take #213 Seattle (-5) over Atlanta (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 10)

2-Unit Play. Take #222 Arizona (-2.5) over Houston (4 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 10)

2-Unit Play. Take #223 Denver (-7) over San Diego (4 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 10)

1-Unit Play. Take #211 St. Louis (+9.5) over Indianapolis (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 10)

2-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #204 Tennessee (-5) over Jacksonville (1 p.m.) AND Take #210 N.Y. Giants (PK) over Oakland (1 p.m.)

This Week's Totals

2-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 54.0 - Dallas at New Orleans (8 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 10)

1-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 52.5 - Detroit at Chicago (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 10)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ALLEN EASTMAN

NFL - Week 10

7-Unit NFL Game of the Week ----- CIN -1.5
411 System

4* DET -2.5

4* SD +7

2* 10-pt Teaser: CIN +8.5 / DET +7.5 / SD +17