11-10-13

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Strike Point Sports

8-unit play San Francisco -6

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Mike O'Connor
SF
Stl
Jax

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NFL Week 10 Opening Line Report Saints' bad blood with Cowboys

There’s a lot of bad blood heading into Sunday Night Football in Week 10 of the NFL schedule.

The New Orleans Saints play host to the Dallas Cowboys in the marquee matchup Sunday, with books opening the Saints as high as 7.5-point home favorites against a team with a dark history involving two of New Orleans' coaches.

Head coach Sean Payton was rumored to be snubbed when it came to the Cowboys’ head coaching job back in 2006 and defensive coordinator Rob Ryan was fired – unjustly according to many – after Dallas fell apart late last season, serving as a sacrificial lamb to Cowboys owner Jerry Jones. There’s plenty of extra motivation for the Saints to bury the Boys on Sunday night.

“Any factor involving coaches, we generally dismiss,” Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club. “The coaches aren’t performing, the players are. (The coaches) can say all they want but it’s the players we’re looking at (when setting odds).”

Korner is suggesting his clients should keep the spread for this Sunday finale high, as the public loves to bet the favorite and the Over in these standalone primetime games. The total for Sunday night’s contest was sent out at 55 by Korner’s oddsmakers, but most shops are dealing 52.5 points.

“We didn’t want to be low,” says Korner. “And I think we’re going to be just about right on this. No one is betting this game Under.”

Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5, 41.5)

This Week 10 East vs. West contest could be the most entertaining game on the board, with dynamic quarterbacks under center for both sides. However, despite having Cam Newton and Colin Kaepernick making plays, books have opened this total at the low number of 41.5 points.

“Wow, I think that’s really low,” says Korner. “We sent out 47 and it’s down to 41 and 42. I realize they’re good defenses but we had one guy with this (total) as high as 50. We could be wrong. But I’d rather error on the high side.”

Some people may think this spread is too high, especially with some shops trimming the line from San Francisco -7 to -6 with early money on the Panthers. Korner notes that while Carolina is winning games it should, it hasn’t faced competition like the Niners during its four-game winning streak.

Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons (+6, 44)

Rarely do you see the Falcons as home dogs, especially as big as 6-point pups. That’s the line books are dealing on Atlanta, hosting the Seahawks Sunday.

The last time the Falcons were home underdogs this big, they lost 25-14 to Green Bay on Sunday Night Football in Week 5 of the 2011 season. Atlanta blew a 14-6 lead in that game, getting outscored 19-0 in the second half.

“It’s well deserved,” Korner says of the Falcons’ 6-point spread. “They haven’t played well. They just don’t deserve anything less. I recommend that books should keep it on the high side and expect Seattle money. Why would anyone bet Atlanta right now?”

Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers (-9, 55 / -2.5)

Before Aaron Rodgers went down with a shoulder injury on Monday Night Football, the Packers were going to be 9-point home favorites hosting the Eagles in Week 10. But now with Rodgers' status is up in the air, most shops have this game off the board.

According to Michael Stewart of CarbonSports, Rodgers is worth as many as seven points to the spread. If he's out for Sunday's game, the Packers could be as low as 2.5-point favorites.

The Eagles' offensive eruption has oddsmakers smiling heading into this Week 10 matchup. Nick Foles and the Eagles scored 49 points against Oakland Sunday and have bettors, who would have normally sided with the Packers, thinking twice about Philadelphia.

“It gives us a little bit of an advantage,” Korner says of the Eagles’ blowout win. “That sort of result will weigh in for a lot of people. It will temper the spread from going any higher than it should... It helps us out as oddsmakers.”

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NFL Line Watch 'Over' bettors shouldn't sleep on Broncos-Bolts shootout

Each week during the pro football season, Expert Art Aronson looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to Bet Now

Oakland Raiders (+7.5) at New York Giants

If you think the Raiders can bounce back from a lackluster effort at home to the Eagles, then consider getting down on this line as quickly as possible.

It opened at 7.5, but for the most part 7's are the norm. It could drop even lower. So far Oakland has been a profitable wager for bettors at 4-3-1 ATS. Not so much in New York, where the Giants are just 1-2 ATS in front of the home town crowd and only 9-12 ATS in the same position over the last two.

Both teams are in the middle of the pack defensively (Giants 15th, Raiders 18th) and offensively (Oakland 14th, Giants 22nd). New York struggled the last time it faced a mobile pivot (38-0 loss at Carolina as a 1-pt favorite).

Bettors aren't forgetting Manning's penchant in turning the ball over and clearly think that the G-Men could once again have their hands full with Oakland's Terrelle Pryor this week.

Spread to Wait on

Houston Texans (-2.5) at Arizona Cardinals

Texans' fans would be wise to wait a little closer to game time before jumping on their team this week. This line opened at 2.5, but a few 3's are starting to make an appearance.

In a game that it absolutely needed to win, Houston lost 27-24 to the Colts Sunday night. After that disheartening setback, bettors will be quick to jump on the home side which comes out of its bye week sitting at 4-4 (Arizona stopped a two-game slide with a convincing 27-13 victory over Atlanta just before its break).

With no reason to look past the Texans (Cardinals play in Jacksonville next Sunday), expect the Arizona line to continue to climb throughout the week.

Total to Watch

Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers (56.5)

Over bettors should get down as soon as possible. This line opened at 56.5 and has already moved to 57. A sunny afternoon in San Diego would seem conducive to a high-scoring affair between these two offensively minded clubs.

Denver soared above the posted number in all eight of its games. The Chargers have gone just 4-4 O/U, but 2-1 O/U in front of the home town crowd. Four of these teams’ last five in the series have soared above the posted number, including both games between these divisional foes last season.

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Football lines that make you go hmmm...
by Jason Logan

NFL

Earlier this week, we talked with Nevada-based oddsmaker Peter Korner of The Sports Club about the total for Sunday’s showdown between the Carolina Panthers and San Francisco 49ers.

Korner’s stable of oddsmakers sent out a suggested total as high as 50, but offshore books opened with the number as low as 41.5. That total has since crept to 42.5 points but still has over/under bettors scratching their heads.

San Francisco and Carolina are solid on defense so far this season, but both are leaning more on their offense to win games in recent outings.

The Niners have topped the total in four of their last five contests, scoring an average of 34.8 points during that stretch – winning all five games SU and ATS. The Panthers are on a winning streak of their own, scoring 32.5 points during its four-game running and topping the total in all but one of those games.

Neither team has played stiff competition during its respected winning streak, so getting a grasp on this 'over/under' could be as hard as getting a grip on Cam Newton or Colin Kaepernick.

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Backing NFL backup QBs not as bad as you think

Life is tough for NFL quarterbacks these days.

Out of 32 NFL teams, 11 have dealt with either a switch under center or injuries to their No. 1 QB at some point this season. But while a drastic shift at the most important position in football would normally spell doom for a team and their pointspread chances, these scrambled squads have actually been a better bet when starting their second stringer.

The 11 teams – Buffalo, Cleveland, Houston, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Oakland, Philadelphia, Chicago, Minnesota, Tampa Bay, and St. Louis – are a combined 21-37-3 ATS with their first-string passer in the lineup (36.8 percent ATS). Those same teams, excluding Chicago (which starts No. 2 Josh McCown Monday night in place of injured No. 1 Jay Cutler), are 13-16 ATS (44.8 percent ATS) with their backups wielding the offense.

The biggest reason for this uptick in ATS winning percentage is the adjustment to those spreads with backup QBs in play. Oddsmakers tack on extra points and the betting public jumps on the other side, moving the line even further. Also, of the quarterbacks either replaced or injured so far this season, none are among the NFL's elite passers - Cutler excluded - so the dropoff in offensive execution hasn't been as severe.

The Cleveland Browns are the most extreme example of this trend, going 0-4 ATS under starter Brandon Weeden but 5-0 ATS with backups Jason Campbell and Brian Hoyer getting the starting nod. The Browns added to the tally with Campbell passing for 262 yards and three touchdowns in a 24-18 win over the Baltimore Ravens Sunday.

The Buffalo Bills have had the biggest downgraded when it comes to covering the spread, starting the season 3-1 ATS with rookie QB E.J. Manuel slinging the ball until a knee injury forced the Buffalo to go down the depth chart. Since then, the Bills are 2-3 ATS with Jeff Tuel and Thaddeus Lewis stepping in. Luckily for Buffalo backers, Manuel is expected to return against the Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) this Sunday.

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Jags WR Justin Blackmon Suspended Indefinitely

Jacksonville Jaguars WR Justin Blackmon has been suspended indefinitely for violating the NFL's substance abuse policy.

Blackmon served a four-game suspension earlier this season after violating the policy.

He has performed well in his limited time for the dismal Jaguars. He has 29 catches for 415 yards and one TD in his four games this season.

The Jaguars back in action in Week 10 and are in Tennessee to take on the Titans in an AFC South battle.

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John Fox to miss several weeks, no impact to Denver odds

Denver Broncos head coach John Fox will require heart surgery and will be out "several weeks", reports ESPN.com.

Fox will undergo aortic valve replacement surgery in North Carolina.

The 58-year-old was on the golf course where he was experiencing dizzy spells and was taken to hospital and told surgery could not wait any longer.

Despite missing their head coach, Fox's absence from the Broncos' sidelines shouldn't have much of an impact on their odds.

"Not from my points of view, said Peter Korner of the Las Vegas based oddsmaking serivce The Sports Club. "That largely stems from the fact that Peyton Manning is their quarterback and knows what to do."

The Broncos opened as 7-point faves at the LVH Superbook for their Week 10 matchup with San Diego Chargers.

There team has not yet named an interim head coach.

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Todays Best Bets

5* - [221] Houston Texans +1 +110 vs Arizona Cardinals

5* - [225] Dallas Cowboys +7.5 -135 vs New Orleans Saints

4* - [219] Carolina Panthers +7 -130 vs San Francisco 49ers

3* - [224] San Diego Chargers +7.5 -140 vs Denver Broncos

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StevieY

jacksonville +11'
atl +6

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Today's NFL Picks

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 10 Time Posted: 8:00 p.m. EST (11/6)

Game 203-204: Jacksonville at Tennessee (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 113.507; Tennessee 134.964 Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 21 1/2; 37 Vegas Line: Tennessee by 12; 41 Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-12); Under

Game 205-206: Philadelphia at Green Bay (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 131.146; Green Bay 136.887 Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 5 1/2; 44 Vegas Line: Green Bay by 1 1/2; 47 Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-1 1/2); Under

Game 207-208: Buffalo at Pittsburgh (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 130.117; Pittsburgh 129.408 Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 1; 46 Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 3; 43 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+3); Over

Game 209-210: Oakland at NY Giants (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 128.191; NY Giants 124.970 Dunkel Line: Oakland by 3; 48 Vegas Line: NY Giants by 9 1/2; 43 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+9 1/2); Over

Game 211-212: St. Louis at Indianapolis (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 126.695; Indianapolis 140.488 Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 14; 40 Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 9 1/2; 44 Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-9 1/2); Under

Game 213-214: Seattle at Atlanta (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 135.527; Atlanta 133.747 Dunkel Line: Seattle by 2; 48 Vegas Line: Seattle by 6 1/2; 44 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+6 1/2); Over

Game 215-216: Cincinnati at Baltimore (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 139.022; Baltimore 133.646 Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 5 1/2; 38 Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 44 Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-1 1/2); Under

Game 217-218: Detroit at Chicago (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 136.426; Chicago 132.477 Dunkel Line: Detroit by 4; 46 Vegas Line: Detroit by 2; 52 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-2); Under

Game 219-220: Carolina at San Francisco (4:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 134.650; San Francisco 143.796 Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 9; 46 Vegas Line: San Francisco by 6; 43 1/2 Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-6); Over

Game 221-222: Houston at Arizona (4:25 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Houston 130.719; Arizona 129.841 Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 36 Vegas Line: Arizona by 3; 41 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Houston (+1); Under

Game 223-224: Denver at San Diego (4:25 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Denver 138.602; San Diego 136.227 Dunkel Line: Denver by 2 1/2; 62 Vegas Line: Denver by 7; 58 Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+7); Over

Game 225-226: Dallas at New Orleans (8:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 134.166; New Orleans 143.570 Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 9 1/2; 58 Vegas Line: New Orleans by 6 1/2; 54 Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-6 1/2); Over

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Betting First Look with Marco D'Angelo

NFL
6 pts Teaser
Baltimore+7.5
Seattle (Pk)

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Sixth Sense

Denver / San Diego Over 57.5

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Linebeaters

Sunday NFL Early Advantage

Seahawks -6
Panthers +6
Saints -7

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Northcoast

Total Pow - Detroit / Chicago Under 51